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  1. Top - End - #271
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    purple gelatinous cube o' Doom's Avatar

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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    It might be a good idea to look at those who voted for Gwyn ap Nud. As Freshmeat mentioned nothing about voting for him, yet quite a few did anyway. So, it's likely that all, or at the very least the majority of those who voted for him are rebels.
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  2. Top - End - #272
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Ok guys, I am indeed a rebel but that doesn't really matter much now. Sent in a pm to Zeb outlining our plan now that we have peasent lynch control which by my calculations results in a rebel victory or at the very least a draw. Of course my numbers may be wrong in which case I screwed up and loyalists win but I think I've gotten it right.

    EDIT: Freshmeat, it's because of your sudden wake up call that forced me to come up with this plan, had you not picked certain people to lynch in your initial analysis today, the Emperor would be dead now and we would have tried to recruit you tonight to gain victory through the rebel heir route.
    Last edited by Fleeing Coward; 2008-02-29 at 02:46 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLaughingMan View Post
    He's Fleeing Coward. The man could be a cookie-baking, cancer-stricken orphan kitten and still look like a reasonable suspect.

  3. Top - End - #273
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Quote Originally Posted by purple gelatinous cube o' Doom View Post
    It might be a good idea to look at those who voted for Gwyn ap Nud. As Freshmeat mentioned nothing about voting for him, yet quite a few did anyway. So, it's likely that all, or at the very least the majority of those who voted for him are rebels.
    I'll also add to this only that Freshmeat stated in the thread that Gwyn ap Nud was NOT a rebel... and most of them did not change their points (the only ones to post those points afterward were FC and Ranna, though FC had also voted for Gwyn ap Nud earlier). I'd also check the Shadow bandwagon (and the previous Gwyn ap Nud bandwagon) as possible places to look. However, if Evnafets did indeed scry as a rebel, he should probably be targeted, too...
    "Chess, like love, like music, has the power to make men happy." --Siegbert Tarrasch

  4. Top - End - #274
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Quote Originally Posted by Shishnarfne View Post
    I'll also add to this only that Freshmeat stated in the thread that Gwyn ap Nud was NOT a rebel... and most of them did not change their points (the only ones to post those points afterward were FC and Ranna, though FC had also voted for Gwyn ap Nud earlier). I'd also check the Shadow bandwagon (and the previous Gwyn ap Nud bandwagon) as possible places to look. However, if Evnafets did indeed scry as a rebel, he should probably be targeted, too...
    I think Freshmeat already knows most of the rebels anyways. What it comes down to is if we rebels got our numbers right. If we did, we can't lose but if we got it wrong, it's not a huge sacrifice since most of the rebels were out in the open and would have died within the next couple of days.
    Last edited by Fleeing Coward; 2008-02-29 at 03:36 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLaughingMan View Post
    He's Fleeing Coward. The man could be a cookie-baking, cancer-stricken orphan kitten and still look like a reasonable suspect.

  5. Top - End - #275
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Well, this all seems a little anticlimactic.

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  6. Top - End - #276
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Quote Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward View Post
    Ok guys, I am indeed a rebel but that doesn't really matter much now. Sent in a pm to Zeb outlining our plan now that we have peasent lynch control which by my calculations results in a rebel victory or at the very least a draw. Of course my numbers may be wrong in which case I screwed up and loyalists win but I think I've gotten it right.

    EDIT: Freshmeat, it's because of your sudden wake up call that forced me to come up with this plan, had you not picked certain people to lynch in your initial analysis today, the Emperor would be dead now and we would have tried to recruit you tonight to gain victory through the rebel heir route.
    Yes, I leaked that idea on purpose to a few people, from various suspected allegiances. I was actually planning on refusing the inevitable offer, just for fun.
    The only problem was that everything had to happen before the recruitment night, leaving me with only one day to identify and frame the Emperor, find and gain the support of the entire Imperial Guard and find a rebel to boot. The rebel could then serve to clear my name (to a certain extent) after I had led the Emperor to the chopping block. Just to be on the safe side, I wanted to get into contact with the CotG as well, so he could keep the court investigator alive. That would leave me with enough options that I could move in a variety of directions from there.

    Unfortunately, finding a rebel was more difficult and took longer than expected. Evnafets turned out to be a loyalist peasant instead (I assume), merely trying to stay alive.
    I tried to determine whether this was a correct assumption or not by contacting him so that I could possibly change the target afterwards and still claim that that person had supposedly been scried. If evnafets was a peasant indeed, he wouldn't have minded that, since he only needed to survive the entire rebellion, and would have had no beef with a loyalist/rebel war whatsoever.

    Then he exposed that PM and everyone involved had to scramble to adjust any and all plans. To make matters worse, it soon became clear that lynching 'a rebel' wasn't going to suffice but that it had to be 'a peasant rebel' and possibly - apparently - even 'two peasant rebels'. This pretty much destroyed my plans to succeed the Emperor [on a short term basis], making things only even more chaotic, as nothing of the original plan remained standing whatsoever.
    It offered a nice change of pace, though.
    Last edited by Freshmeat; 2008-02-29 at 04:38 PM.
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  7. Top - End - #277
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    What is everybody talking about? The fat lady hasn't even come out of her dressing room yet...
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  8. Top - End - #278
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    So, depending on whether you rebels got your numbers right, you either win or lose?

    This isn't looking good for you guys

  9. Top - End - #279
    Grandpa in the Playground Moderator
     
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Quote Originally Posted by evnafets View Post
    What is everybody talking about? The fat lady hasn't even come out of her dressing room yet...
    Indeed. I want to remind everyone that both sides are making predictions based on assumptions and not facts. Freshmeat is guessing at how many rebels there are and Fleeing Coward is guessing at how many Nobles and Peasants there are. I don't want anyone to give up just yet. Let's play this out and see what happens.
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  10. Top - End - #280
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Whens day phase?

  11. Top - End - #281
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Alarra and Zeb apologize that they haven't updated, however, as you may know, they are moving and don't have the internet right now. They will update tomorrow morning.

    If it were up to me, I'd hang the lot of you for lynching me on the first day, but they won't let me do that.
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  12. Top - End - #282
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Yes, hang the lot of them but spare me. I wanted to make some penguin sushi

    Attention loyalist peasents, the rebellion is currently seeking one more member to join it's ranks. Vote with us in tommorrow lynching of the Captain of the Guards and you may just be lucky enough to see the end, first loyalist peasent to go against us shall be granted the privilege of testing out our lunar powered slaughter wagon
    We have the peasent majority so resistance is futile.
    Last edited by Fleeing Coward; 2008-03-01 at 08:45 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLaughingMan View Post
    He's Fleeing Coward. The man could be a cookie-baking, cancer-stricken orphan kitten and still look like a reasonable suspect.

  13. Top - End - #283
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Ack! Please all remaining peasants that are still loyal to our true emperor and remaining loyal nobles vote to lynch Fleeing Coward. He has pretty much won but I feel he should not live to see the fruits of his labour. I for one will not let the emperor's reign go easy.

    Fin gives one last salutory look at his medal identifying him as the Captain Of The Guard then readies his sword and prepares to go out in a blaze of glory!
    Waiting for that day, when we all have the time.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dirk Kris View Post
    I'll never trust you again. Even if we're on the same team. Even if the narrators tell me to.
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  14. Top - End - #284
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Quote Originally Posted by Fin View Post
    Ack! Please all remaining peasants that are still loyal to our true emperor and remaining loyal nobles vote to lynch Fleeing Coward. He has pretty much won but I feel he should not live to see the fruits of his labour. I for one will not let the emperor's reign go easy.

    Fin gives one last salutory look at his medal identifying him as the Captain Of The Guard then readies his sword and prepares to go out in a blaze of glory!
    I need only remind loyal peasants that any found to be voting for Fin will be presumed rebels and treated as such... I'm fairly sure that a few loyal nobles (especially the Emporer and heir) can swing an execution vote onto you fairly quickly.

    Remember, vote to kill Fleeing Coward! He isn't sure that he has enough people to win the peasant vote, otherwise he wouldn't have asked for support... And don't believe him about the recruiting position: he has no reason to recruit you if he manages to kill the Guard Captain... he'll just kill the Emperor at night and try to recruit the heir for a faster win.
    "Chess, like love, like music, has the power to make men happy." --Siegbert Tarrasch

  15. Top - End - #285
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Look at it this way - loyalist peasents win by surviving. Follow Fin and your chance of that is 0, follow me and you have a 1 in 3 chance of surviving long enough to be recruited. It's just common sense at this point to vote with the bandwagon if you want to survive.
    We can't take the emperor killing route because the heir has made it clear that he doesn't want to join on night 9 for a quicker victory. That's why we're opening up the position to any peasents who are interested to let them share in the victory.
    Last edited by Fleeing Coward; 2008-03-03 at 04:06 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLaughingMan View Post
    He's Fleeing Coward. The man could be a cookie-baking, cancer-stricken orphan kitten and still look like a reasonable suspect.

  16. Top - End - #286
    Orc in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Wow, I have never been in the situation where I know during the night phase that I'll be lynched the next day before... I feel like Shadow!
    Last edited by Fin; 2008-03-03 at 04:25 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dirk Kris View Post
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  17. Top - End - #287
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Did someone call my name?
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    LLama says: Of course, the game would also have been more balanced if you all would learn not to trust Shadow
    no matter what game he's in or role he has.
    Duos says: I've read the archives... and Shadow frankly scares the bejeesus outta me. It's like playing with a
    hypothetical cross of Lex Luthor and professor Moriarty.
    If he was made of SPIDERS.

  18. Top - End - #288
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Cool, its like he is omni-present
    Waiting for that day, when we all have the time.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dirk Kris View Post
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  19. Top - End - #289
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    That's one of my secrets, Grasshopper.
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    LLama says: Of course, the game would also have been more balanced if you all would learn not to trust Shadow
    no matter what game he's in or role he has.
    Duos says: I've read the archives... and Shadow frankly scares the bejeesus outta me. It's like playing with a
    hypothetical cross of Lex Luthor and professor Moriarty.
    If he was made of SPIDERS.

  20. Top - End - #290
    Grandpa in the Playground Moderator
     
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    My deepest apologies. As some of you may have read in RB, I won't have internet at the new house until 3/26. Of course I never would have started a game if I knew this was to be the case. However, I'm keeping internet up at the old place until the setup happens. We just weren't able to make it there this weekend because of the move. We're not going to let this much time pass between phases for the rest of the game, I promise.

    That said, I'm sending out Night Phase messages and then I'll get the update posted and we'll get on with the game.

    Thanks for your patience,

    The Narrators
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  21. Top - End - #291
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Night 6)

    Zeb, since I'm out I'm more than willing to help ot some if you want me to.
    Just let me know.
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    LLama says: Of course, the game would also have been more balanced if you all would learn not to trust Shadow
    no matter what game he's in or role he has.
    Duos says: I've read the archives... and Shadow frankly scares the bejeesus outta me. It's like playing with a
    hypothetical cross of Lex Luthor and professor Moriarty.
    If he was made of SPIDERS.

  22. Top - End - #292
    Grandpa in the Playground Moderator
     
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Day 7)

    After a seemingly endless night, the dawn finally breaks on a nervous population.

    After the bold proclamation of an unstoppable rebel victory the previous day, most are certain that this night won't have had a kill. More pressing is who would be recruited. Would they accept the offer or stay true to the current regime? More importantly, are the nobles just going to slaughter peasants wholesale in their desire to stay in power? This seemed most likely, judging by the speeches made by the heir.

    For very different reasons, the folk gather to take their counting. As expected, all are present.

    Who was it? What did they say? Does this spell certain doom or is this the cocky proclamation of an overconfident warmonger? Perhaps the day will tell.

    Summary: No one was killed by the rebels.

    Day Seven begins and will end at approximately 7am Eastern Standard Time on 3/6.





    Last edited by Zeb The Troll; 2008-03-04 at 03:18 AM. Reason: Updated the title
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  23. Top - End - #293
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Day 7)

    Well, let's get this started. I do believe the Captain of the Guards, Fin has an appointment with the gallows today.
    As I've promised before, first peasent to vote against us shall be introduced to our Lunar-Powered Slaughter Wagon
    Last edited by Fleeing Coward; 2008-03-04 at 04:00 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLaughingMan View Post
    He's Fleeing Coward. The man could be a cookie-baking, cancer-stricken orphan kitten and still look like a reasonable suspect.

  24. Top - End - #294
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Day 7)

    Quote Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward View Post
    As I've promised before, first peasent to vote against us shall be introduced to our Lunar-Powered Slaughter Wagon
    Since you intend to kill all peasants anyway, I don't think the remaining loyalist peasantry is going to be swayed by that.

    As for today:
    Nobles: vote for Fleeing Coward
    Peasants: vote for Zar Peter (there's always the possibility FC is bluffing or miscalculated)
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  25. Top - End - #295
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Day 7)

    Quote Originally Posted by Freshmeat_ View Post
    Since you intend to kill all peasants anyway, I don't think the remaining loyalist peasantry is going to be swayed by that.

    As for today:
    Nobles: vote for Fleeing Coward
    Peasants: vote for Zar Peter (there's always the possibility FC is bluffing or miscalculated)
    I'm not going to lie, a peasent or 2 might still die but if they vote with you their chance of survival until the end of the game is exactly 0 while if they vote with me, they might just survive long enough to get recruited.
    Of course, it's entirely up to the peasents but surely even a slight chance of survival is better than none at all?
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLaughingMan View Post
    He's Fleeing Coward. The man could be a cookie-baking, cancer-stricken orphan kitten and still look like a reasonable suspect.

  26. Top - End - #296
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Day 7)

    Quote Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward View Post
    I'm not going to lie, a peasent or 2 might still die but if they vote with you their chance of survival until the end of the game is exactly 0 while if they vote with me, they might just survive long enough to get recruited.
    Of course, it's entirely up to the peasents but surely even a slight chance of survival is better than none at all?
    The premise is rather simple, really. Either you've got the peasant majority vote, or you don't. If you don't, then two rebels will start dying now every turn, and this game will be over in about 3-4 turns. As a matter of fact, if you send a recruitment offer three turns from now, I'm not sure people would even want to accept that offer by then.
    Chance of survival equalling 0? I don't think so. Especially when you consider the fact that the rebel leader might stll get lynched in the meantime, thus removing the recruitment factor entirely.

    If you do have the majority vote, however, then it doesn't matter in the slightest who they vote for. Of course, at that point they're dead anyway, as we'll just keep on hammering down on all known rebel peasants whereas you'll just kill every loyalist peasant you know of to maintain your majority vote over the remaining peasants.
    (If the rebels have a 4/7 majority over the peasant vote and we kill one rebel peasant, they'll just kill another peasant to regain the majority vote again. And we know that FC is going down today anyway, since the noble vote is under our control without question.).

    Therefore it's in the peasants' best interests to try and determine whether the first scenario is in effect or not. Unlike what FC says, it's basically a choice between certain survival or certain death. As soon as the loyalist peasants allow their votes to become worthless, they might just as well kill themselves.
    And to be perfectly honest, any peasant we know of that doesn't vote for Zar Peter to die today is also likely to be mistaken for a rebel. Why would someone who's win condition is to survive take that risk if he can help it?
    We can kill people too, after all.
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  27. Top - End - #297
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Day 7)

    Like you pointed out, we'll naturally kill peasents at night to maintain a safety buffer on our majority. However, the loyalist peasent's win condition is to survive and that means not dying which is a certainty if they decide to follow you.
    On the other hand, once they're recruited by us, their victory condition changes to the rebel one which just requires their faction to win regardless of whether they're alive at the end.
    If I was given the choice of a certain loss and even the slightest chance of victory (one of the loyalist peasents will live until night 9 where they will be given the chance to join), I know what I'd choose.
    Last edited by Fleeing Coward; 2008-03-04 at 07:12 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLaughingMan View Post
    He's Fleeing Coward. The man could be a cookie-baking, cancer-stricken orphan kitten and still look like a reasonable suspect.

  28. Top - End - #298
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Day 7)

    Fin walks defiantely out of his house and stands next to Freshmeat.

    People the rebels may think they have won! That may even be true, but is is not certain. So lets show them something...

    *Cue Obligatory Cliche Movie Sound-Bites*

    Lets show them we will not go quietly into the night, we will not go down without a fight! They may take our lives, but they will never take our FREEDOM!

    With that Fin prepares to fight Fleeing Coward and any other rebels who come at him to the death!

    For the EMPEROR!
    Last edited by Fin; 2008-03-04 at 07:10 AM.
    Waiting for that day, when we all have the time.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dirk Kris View Post
    I'll never trust you again. Even if we're on the same team. Even if the narrators tell me to.
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  29. Top - End - #299
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Day 7)

    Like you said, this is a fight for freedom but it is we that seek freedom, not you and your cruel noble friends.
    How can you say that you're fighting for freedom when you continuously rob us peasent of all our hard earned coins for no better reason than because you were born into a life of privilege?
    How can you say you're fighting for freedom when we have to work tirelessly on your lands just to survive while you lounge in your manors sipping tea?
    How can you say you're fighting for freedom when it is we who have to sleep on the cold hard ground while you nobles lie on your warm beds by the hearth?
    We have suffered long enough, hiding in the dark under your emperor's oppressive rule, it is time for us to make our stand.
    All we seek is a fair society free from the rule of the greedy emperor and his scheming heir. It was never our intention to harm the peaceful peasentry that lives amongst us but you and your "emperor" have left us with little choice with your lies and deception.


    The sushi salesman pulls out a pair of rapiers hidden within his portable fridge knowing full well that this may very well be his very last battle.
    Last edited by Fleeing Coward; 2008-03-04 at 07:32 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheLaughingMan View Post
    He's Fleeing Coward. The man could be a cookie-baking, cancer-stricken orphan kitten and still look like a reasonable suspect.

  30. Top - End - #300
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    Default Re: Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Day 7)

    Quote Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward View Post
    And voting against the rebels is certain death for any loyalist peasents. Loyalist peasents win condition is to survive and that means not dying which is a certainty if they decide to follow you.
    On the other hand, once they're recruited by us, their victory condition changes to the rebel one which just requires their faction to win regardless of whether they're alive at the end.
    If I was given the choice of a certain loss and even the slightest chance of victory (1 in 3 by my calculations), I know what I'd choose.
    I find it interesting that you're so keen on swaying the public opinion towards your cause, especially after you've so boldly revealed yourself to be a rebel. Surely all of this wouldn't be necessary if you already had the peasant vote under your control?

    If the loyalists peasants decide to follow you, we'll just kill all suspected rebel peasants (and if they vote with you, they do run the risk of being suspected)... and then you'll probably still kill off the remaining peasants to both try and obtain the peasant vote regardless and to try and back up your earlier threat.
    The result? Both the loyalists and the rebels end up trying to get the remaining peasants killed. How does that fit in with 'survival'?

    The fastest way to win this game is to start killing rebels with both votes. I can assure the loyalists that as long as they stick to the plan, none of them will get lynched. Which brings me to the obvious point in regards to survival - the longer this game drags out, the more people will die. In the peasants' case: the higher the chance you lose.
    If we can get two rebels to die every day from now, all the peasants need to do is survive 3 or 4 nights. If they don't, they'll need to survive 3 or 4 days and nights while betting everything on the rebel leader surviving until night 9 and choosing them to be recruited. Oh, and if the rebel leader doesn't choose them, or can't (because he died in the meantime), the loyalist peasants would still need to survive until the end of the game, so add a couple of risky days and nights on top of that as well. From a logical point of view, it just isn't worth it.
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