Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Day 10)

[Shishnarfne]

Alright, as of right now, we have Freshmeat claiming that evnafets is a rebel, Zar Peter is (probably) a rebel, and that Gwyn ap Nud is NOT a rebel...

Unfortunately, while this would be enough for me if I were absolutely certain that Freshmeat were working for the loyalists, Freshmeat is (apparently) the heir... this means that it is VERY easy for him to justify working with the rebels for a personal win... even if he hasn't been recruited yet.

What I'd like to see/hear/whatever is some independent in-thread analysis from someone who ISN'T evnafets or Freshmeat or Fleeing Coward... Basically, evnafets and FC are claiming innocence and casting doubts on Freshmeat, while Freshmeat tries to shift blame elsewhere...

Why is the Guard Captain silent?
Why hasn't someone talked to DLD, who is probably safe as the fool, and had more independent confirmation of this?

I pointed at the people I chose, because I had reasons which I thought were valid for suspecting that they *might* be rebels... many of which were posted in here already. Unfortunately, I don't know enough about the other individuals currently playing to cross-reference stories for inconsistencies...

What I'd like to hear in thread (or via PM) are a couple more voices confirming one side or the other...

*If Gwyn ap Nud is NOT a rebel, than I would suspect that this bandwagon has some rebels, could someone with a spreadsheet come up with a few suspicious names?*

Edit: point changed... again, because I really don't have good data on who to suspect: point at easyname

[Szilard]

If I am emperor now... You there! Fetch me the finest food and drink you can find! Such possiblitys being an emperor holds. So do I have an Imperial Army? I want them to do a sweep of the area and exterminate all the rebels!

[Fleeing Coward]

I'd be more worried about your heir if I were you, he's got your guards in his pocket and he might get a sudden surge of imperial ambition

[Freshmeat]

Upon closer inspection, it does seem we're actually dealing with three rebel peasants out of a group of eight (?), which was the better-case scenario of two assumptions. It still means we'll have to kill one rebel peasant today, but not two.

In that case:
Noble vote - Ranna (she has a high chance to be in league with anyone, is a guaranteed peasant, has done nothing but joined bandwagons so far and voted for Shadow on 5 -- when we know the rebels actually already wanted to kill Shadow on day 2). This isn't much, but it's something, and I'm willing to give evnafets the benefit of the doubt for now.

Peasant vote - Zar Peter (see the previous page)

*point at Ranna*

[Fleeing Coward]

Points at Gwyn Ap Nud

[evnafets]

Looks like there is only one option to potentially save my butt.

evnafets points at Zar Peter

[Penguinsushi]

The Penguin takes a few more photographs - Zombie Pixie and Zar Peter, among them.

Good gravy, that's a lot of text. Hopefully I can catch up on the logic tomorrow/this weekend.

~PS

[Fleeing Coward]

Interested in taking a couple of photos of the coolest place in town while you're here Mr. Penguin?

[purple gelatinous cube o' Doom]

Points at Ranna I still don't trust Zombie Pixie, but Freshmeat has definitely thought this stuff through, so he gets the benefit of the doubt right now.

[Mustiado]

--Mustiado is jostled as he hits a pothole, and flips bandwagons.--

Pretty unfortunate, Ranna.

[Aemoh]

*changes point to Ranna*

[Zeb The Troll]

((Just a note here, I love reading all of this. My poor spreadsheet is crying with all the vote changes though. Keep it up, everyone.))

[purple gelatinous cube o' Doom]

((Zeb, is it safe to assume an end of day post is coming. It's really the only reason I'm actually still awake.))

[Zeb The Troll]

((@^ - That won't be for a few (~5) more hours. Given the level of discussion and the number of vote changes so far, I want to give everyone the full 48 hours before ending the day. Get your sleep, Night will be there when you get up. ))

[Shadow]

Sleep.
Those little slices of death.
How I loathe them.

-Poe

(although it should read: How I miss them....)

[Ranna]

Gwyn ap nud what else am I to do

[Fleeing Coward]

The sushi salesman mourns the coming death of the rebellion's most courageous spy.

[Fin]

Changes point to Ranna

[Zeb The Troll]

A tumultuous day indeed!

...In the newspaper that evening...

Man Claims To Know Rebels, Encounters Resistance

Playground Press - Early this morning, a young man claiming to be a noble and the heir to the throne came forward claiming to have intimate knowledge of Rebel activity. He supplied a lot of analysis and supposition that, frankly, this reporter didn't understand.

Shortly after this, one of the accused responded that much of this analysis was faulty and that in fact the pretender to the throne was a liar. When questioned about this counter charge, the alleged heir said only "I didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition!"

In light of the claims and counter claims, the citizenry all made their way to the polls to vote for their favorite allegation. Early exit polls showed that the accused was surely to be on the chopping block by day's end, but later returns seem to have swung the votes to wholly different parties. Seemingly the masses were totally confused by the discussion and chose to ignore both speakers. Tune in to Channel Eleventy-seven Gnews At Gnine to hear the final results.

...Later that evening, on a local television station...

Good evening. This is Gary Gnu coming to you live on the nation's top rated gnews channel with election coverage saturation programming.

We have been told that within mere minutes the final results will have been tallied and we'll know who's right ... and who's dead.

Ah, here they are now...

*a skinny green arm enters the screen holding an envelope out for the announcer*

Thanks, Kermit. Let's see what we've got here...

Well folks, it looks like we've got a couple of, err, winners here. From the Noble vote tally, we have Ranna who made it to the list to be executed. Reports show that when the guards came to take her away she was trying to destroy disguises and listening devices of some sort.

And for the peasant vote, it looks like we get to string up Gwyn ap Nud. Let's see if we can get a live feed from the hanging. Gary, are you there?

*the video feed switches to the same person holding a microphone and wearing a trenchcoat and a hat with a large piece of paper that says PRESS sticking out of it*

I am, Gary. Behind me you'll see Gwyn is being brought up to the gallows as we speak. This should all be over within minutes and then we can find out for certain what sort of devious plots-

*suddenly there's a loud creakTHUMP from behind the reporter*

- It looks like it's all over on this end. Let's see if we can find someone from the constabulary to tell us how evil this person was. Here comes one now down the street.

Excuse me sir, can you tell us what you found at this person's home?

*the stopped officer looks at the reporter, dumbstruck, and holds up a uniform of the Imperial Guard*

*the live feed goes dead and the screens are blank for a few moments before the original Gary comes back on from behind the desk looking a bit shaken up, he turns to the camera and says*

And now, back to your regularly scheduled programming...

JOEY: That's how they do pants. First they go up one side, they move
it over, they go up the other side, they move it back, and
then they do the rear. What? Ross, Ross, would you tell him?
Isn't that how they measure pants?

ROSS: Yes, yes it is. In prison! Whatsa matter with you?

Summary: Gwyn ap Nud was lynched by the Peasants. She was Loyal and a member of the Imperial Guard.
Ranna was executed by the Nobles. She was the Rebel Spy.

Night 6 Begins and will end in ~24 hours.

[Fleeing Coward]

One of ours for one of yours Mr. heir to the throne. A nice fair trade in my books

[Freshmeat]

One of ours for one of yours Mr. heir to the throne. A nice fair trade in my books

Assuming that that means we're about to lose the peasant vote, let me just say: aw man!

And it was such a nice run too! In the span of only one day (in game terms) I found the Emperor, the CotG, every single mason, the rebel spy and (probably) a random rebel noble, all thanks to one scry. And that still wasn't enough.
Total anti-climax.

As I told you yesterday, I sort of expected that the peasant vote was already out of our control. if it really was as close as I assumed, then all it'd take would be for one loyalist peasant not to vote at all, or not to change his point in time, which was quite likely given the late change in targets.
Good show, I guess. I sure had some fun.

On an unrelated note, are the rebels hiring?

[Ranna]

aww gutted!!! I really enjoyed scrying, Im naturally the most nosy so'n'so that i know and now im dead!! Ah well.

[Szilard]

Which is why I didn't vote Gywn, poor little peasants... Now who's going to gaurd me! and what happend to my food and drink? And where is my imperial army?

[Freshmeat]

Well, I'm not fostering any false hopes here, but I'd consider it hilarious if whoever the rebels tried to recruit tonight would refuse the offer just to spite them.

[easyname]

Wait, FC, did you just admit you were a rebel?

[Shishnarfne]

Wait, FC, did you just admit you were a rebel?

No, I think that FC was trying to imply that he considers Freshmeat the next closest thing to a rebel... as he could "win" by accepting recruitment and having the Emperor killed... Which means that he's fighting an uphill battle with his logic to convince any surviving loyalists of his intentions (which now appear that they might be sincere).

Now, to try and figure out who ought to meet the next rope necktie...

Edit: Just to clarify: I'm not saying that Freshmeat is necessarily lying... I'm just saying that he might need to do a bit of work to make sure that he can convince people that what he says really reflects the truth. Similar arguments made by, say, Szilard, would probably be easier to believe (easier to believe the emperor than the heir). It's the whole "Check the evidence before acting on it" routine. I must add that I find the Gwyn Ap Nud bandwagon a bit suspicious... especially after the post defending his status.

Maybe that's where we should look next for a few good rebels?

[easyname]

Ah, I get it...

I have no idea whats going on right now, and I'm not sure if i can believe Freshmeat...

[Freshmeat]

No, I think that FC was trying to imply that he considers Freshmeat the next closest thing to a rebel... as he could "win" by accepting recruitment and having the Emperor killed... Which means that he's fighting an uphill battle with his logic to convince any surviving loyalists of his intentions (which now appear that they might be sincere).

Now, to try and figure out who ought to meet the next rope necktie...

Please...
FC was online and posted in this thread yet refused to save Gwyn ap Nud, even after I told him that Gwyn ap Nud was innocent.
He identified Ranna as the rebel spy before she died.

There is no doubt that he's a rebel.

He seems pretty certain of his victory, but who knows - perhaps he's been a bit too confident.
Since my theories appeared to have been correct, that means the game now depends on whatever happens to tonight's recruitment offer. If the person involved accepts, the rebels win. If he or she doesn't, the rebels lose.
So, I guess we might just as well test to see if the peasant vote is still under our control tomorrow. If it still is, I think a lot of rebels are going to die real soon.

[Shishnarfne]

Please...
FC was online and posted in this thread yet refused to save Gwyn ap Nud, even after I told him that Gwyn ap Nud was innocent.
He identified Ranna as the rebel spy before she died.

There is no doubt that he's a rebel.

He seems pretty certain of his victory, but who knows - perhaps he's been a bit too confident.
Since my theories appeared to have been correct, that means the game now depends on whatever happens to tonight's recruitment offer. If the person involved accepts, the rebels win. If he or she doesn't, the rebels lose.
So, I guess we might just as well test to see if the peasant vote is still under our control tomorrow. If it still is, I think a lot of rebels are going to die real soon.

True, FC does look rather suspicious to me... He may have had two possible meanings in his statement (I don't know which is his actual thought at this point, and he did send me a PM trying to fish around for how much info I had (none, other than in-thread debates) last night). I didn't have time to change my point away from Easyname to ZP or Ranna last night by the time I realized that you were probably trustworthy... FC's vote to hit Gwyn ap Nud comes AFTER his PM to me, so I think he's a likely one... and I haven't any reason to doubt your word about ZP at this point.

I'm gonna probably drop AFK before the voting phase starts, but I might be able to find time to drop in long enough to get a vote off... Which really doesn't help matters a whole lot right now...

If you've got time, I can shoot off a PM trying to discuss how I see matters (I don't have much, but I probably won't be able to post much in the voting phase, so it's probably better to get it out of the way now....).

[easyname]

You're probably right, guess we'll vote for FC then.