[spoiler] I think I see Parson's Win

[Liminaut]

GK is looking suddenly winnable.

In the tunnels Sizemore has turned it into a few passages with a lot of dead ends. This is going to be perfect for a Gobwins + weaker golems to hold the door, together with the nastier golems lead by Sizemore to pick off units hit-and-run. Munch.

In the air battle of FAQ, Jillian may be getting overconfident. Stanley has his own leadership bonus plus artifact bonus plus a whole boatload of dragons. So let's say Jillian kills Stanley but takes a lot of casualties, leaving the bulk of the dragons ... with the Foolamancer as a leader unit(!).

Let's say when Stanley is killed Parsons somehow becomes the ruler of his side. Somehow. So the Foolamancer would bring the dragons back to help. Then again, with Stanley gone Jillian would certainly bring back the Arkenhammer. I wonder what happens to the dragons then?

Anyway, I think it's reasonable that Alliance Air Forces are weakened enough that it becomes survivable for Parsons.

That leaves the assault on the city itself. Half of the siege units are gone. It might be that Ansom can only make limited breeches in the wall, which means that KISS + uncroaked with the Croakamancers leadership bonus might be able to hold the breech. Yes, this means Parsons *needs* to get the Croakamancer back. The uncroaked can hold the breech, and on Parson's turn he can have all the dead bodies uncroacked.

If this goes on for a few turns, loyalty can become a big problem. GK was supposed to be a rollover and it's becoming a meatgrinder. If Maggie hits a few units with Thinkamancy and makes them revolt (aka drops their Loyalty) the siege could collapse.

Then Parsons gets to go on the offensive.

[The Blind]

In the tunnels Sizemore has turned it into a few passages with a lot of dead ends. This is going to be perfect for a Gobwins + weaker golems to hold the door, together with the nastier golems lead by Sizemore to pick off units hit-and-run. Munch.

In the air battle of FAQ, Jillian may be getting overconfident. Stanley has his own leadership bonus plus artifact bonus plus a whole boatload of dragons. ...

Anyway, I think it's reasonable that Alliance Air Forces are weakened enough that it becomes survivable for Parsons.

That leaves the assault on the city itself. Half of the siege units are gone. It might be that Ansom can only make limited breeches in the wall, which means that KISS + uncroaked with the Croakamancers leadership bonus might be able to hold the breech. Yes, this means Parsons *needs* to get the Croakamancer back. The uncroaked can hold the breech, and on Parson's turn he can have all the dead bodies uncroacked.

That's a good summary of the situation. I skipped the bits about Stanley dying, though. Everyone wants Parson to have his own side, it seems, but part of why Erfworld is so enjoyable is just how many tensions and conflicts there are. I can't see the creators removing the biggest source of tension there is: Parson's forced obedience to an idiot. Especially when Parson receiving his own side would seem to violate the rules of succession that they've been very careful to spell out in detail.

Regarding the dwagons, I can't find the comic I'm looking for, but there is one that explicitly says the dwagons will obey Stanley as long as he wields the Arkenhammer. If Stanley loses it, at best the dwagons would no longer obey; at worse, if the Arkenhammer were attuned to Gillian or Ansom, then the dwagons could be tamed by them.

I'm also uncertain if Croakamancy would really allow Wanda to immediately raise the bodies after each turn. It seems like with that kind of advantage, the Tool wouldn't be losing so badly. And this comic doesn't make it clear whether Wanda needs to do anything for Uncroaked infantry to be popped. Having a Croakamancer might simply unlock Uncroaked infantry for the sides that have one.

I agree absolutely that the situation is more hopeful for Parson than it ever has been, for the reasons you've stated. I just can't credit some of the more fanciful conjectures. Good post with a good summary.

[leo_neil316]

I actually think he'll do it slightly differently.

The aliance air was a match for all the dragons. Now theres less dragons but stanleys (probally even higher than ansoms) leadership and artifact bonuses pilled in to even the odds back out.

But yeah, turning goblin knob into a nightmare of a meatgrinder is probally what parsons gonna have to try.

However I think he'll use the living infantry to assault breaches initially (specifically the troll and knight units, maybe some of the golem types depending on if it's just dirt golems that get the bonus from sizemore). Under the command of the uncroaked warlords so they can get as big a kill ratio as possible. Especially since Parson can use his mathmancy gauntlet to pick fights to a degree that it's hugely powerful magic by erf standards.

Then wanda starts uncroaking all the alliance infantry that bought it in the assault. Second turn starts with the numbers shifted a bit, possibly even significantly. Still far in the aliances favour. But with goblin knob looking more and more costly with every engagement report that comes in.

[ralphmerridew]

I think he's going to find an exploit in the Natural Thinkamancy rules.

He'll form some sort of threat against Ansom himself, in an attempt cause the coalition troops to disobey Ansom's orders.

[The Blind]

He'll form some sort of threat against Ansom himself, in an attempt cause the coalition troops to disobey Ansom's orders.

I wonder about that, too. But Ansom isn't a Ruler; it seems to me that the Alliance army has no more obligation to save Ansom, their Chief Warlord, than the Gobwin Knob army has one to save Parson. They might do it if they don't believe that they could conquer Gobwin Knob without him and conquering Gobwin Knob is the highest directive, but I don't see a threat to his person causing mass disobedience.

The last time he was personally threatened, the only one who considered disobedience to save him was Jillian while under the spell, and we already know that as a would-be heir and mercenary, she is her own Ruler, so she can do as she damn well pleases.

I guess we'll see. I personally expect something less than an exploit, perhaps a well-managed Battle of Stalingrad rather than Ender's Game. But who knows? This story has done a great job of avoiding the obvious so far. Can't wait for the next surprise to drop.

[SteveMB]

I wonder about that, too. But Ansom isn't a Ruler; it seems to me that the Alliance army has no more obligation to save Ansom, their Chief Warlord, than the Gobwin Knob army has one to save Parson. They might do it if they don't believe that they could conquer Gobwin Knob without him and conquering Gobwin Knob is the highest directive, but I don't see a threat to his person causing mass disobedience.

We're already established as much. If Ansom's army were that focused on protecting him personally, they would at the very least have dragged their feet ever step of the way about letting him lead the attack on the Donut o' Doom (if they couldn't find a way to prevent it outright).

I guess we'll see. I personally expect something less than an exploit, perhaps a well-managed Battle of Stalingrad rather than Ender's Game. But who knows? This story has done a great job of avoiding the obvious so far. Can't wait for the next surprise to drop.

Indeed. I suppose I could go back and look at my track record of guesses and predictions, but I'm not sure I want to....

[ralphmerridew]

According to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Stalingrad, deployment & casualties at Stalingrad were comparable for both sides. Even if Parson could match the skill shown there, he's still up against the 25-1 numeric advantage, and Ansom has decent weather and supply chain. If Parson plays according to known strategies, he has no chance.

I consider a strategy combining known rules to disproportionate effect, such as the hit and run attacks, to be an exploit.

The Natural Thinkamancy rules are the first new rules to be openly discussed in some time, but they have been foreshadowed from early on.

[The Blind]

Even if Parson could match the skill shown there, he's still up against the 25-1 numeric advantage, and Ansom has decent weather and supply chain. If Parson plays according to known strategies, he has no chance.

The comparison is less apt than it might seem. I said it half-jokingly, referring to Parson's early "strategery" klog, but the situations are not comparable. The Soviet Union had clear superiority in available manpower and a steadily-decreasing deficiency in materiel, while Germany initially held and eventually lost air superiority. The Soviets traded men for time, but casualties were roughly equal. In Parson's situation, where he has no need to give weapons only to every second soldier and his defensive position is the best in the known world, and Ansom has just sent his air superiority to hunt down Stanley, the casualties ought to be grossly disproportionate in Parson's favor.

You're right, though: not disproportionate enough. It will take unconventional tactics; flanking attacks through fresh tunnels dug by Sizemore, perhaps, or loyalty draining by Maggie, or any number of other tactics I haven't even imagined.

I consider a strategy combining known rules to disproportionate effect, such as the hit and run attacks, to be an exploit.

We have different terminologies here. I just view that as good strategic thinking; it isn't an exploit unless it breaks the game, or in this case, the world.

I think I've written over a hundred words only to realize that we are in substantial agreement. Oh well, that's forums for you.

[Runar]

Looking at different parts of Parson's Klog, I think I see one strategy that he might use. If he has Sizemore block off, just enough for the enemy troops to not see it, one of the tunnels, then possibly waits until Ansom's troops march over it, then use a surprise attack, or some sort of explosion, to sabotage some of the Column.

[hajo]

the casualties ought to be grossly disproportionate in Parson's favor... though: not disproportionate enough.

If Wanda can be reactivated, and she can uncroak fallen enemy units, Parson could replace his losses - and perhaps even get stronger.

[The Blind]

If Wanda can be reactivated, and she can uncroak fallen enemy units, Parson could replace his losses - and perhaps even get stronger.

That's the million dollar question.

And there's still no evidence either way. Way to build the tension. We might not know until the battle. It definitely doesn't seem to have occurred to Parson yet.

I still hold out hope for an uncroaked Ansom, but I think the creators may be willing to part ways with traditional views of Necromancy here.

[ralphmerridew]

Ansom had 25:1 numerical superiority. He thought that was 4 times what he needed (so Ansom thought 6:1 superiority would be enough for worst case). Parson croaked a fair number of troops with the dwagons, but I don't think it had that big of an effect of the ratio, and I think the loss of the dwagons will have a bigger effect on Parson than the partial loss of siege engines will on Ansom.

Also, for comparison, if I got this right, defenders at Cold Harbor and Pickett's Charge inflicted 6 times their own casualties; defenders at Marye's Heights and Franklin "only" inflicted 3 times their own casualties.

[hajo]

It definitely doesn't seem to have occurred to Parson yet.

Even if he didn't think about uncroaking enemy units (but I think Parson is smart enough to consider it), Wanda's leadership-bonus for uncroaked units is enough reason to make it a priority for Maggie to reactivate her.

[stm177]

Once Ansom engages his army, how many turns would it take to defeat Parson? Assuming Parson doesn't find an exploit to win.

[Frictional]

I personally cannot wait until Jillian and the Tool fight. I mean, can you imagine?
Jillian is a warrior princess (pardon the term) and a Royal to boot, but what is Stanley? He was a common infantry unit that came all the way up through the ranks, found the Arkenhammer as a Warlord, then became Chief Warlord. He may not be the best or most respected Overlord, but theres no denying he was a fighting marvel. With all his dragons, himself leading them, and an Arkentool... I think Jillian has a lot more to worry about than she thinks.

Anyway, assuming Stanley does destroy Jillian, he could make some deus ex machina comeback and save the battle for BK assuming that Parson's talent, though high, isn't quite enough to save the city. Wouldn't that be somethin.

[Runar]

Man, i've been going through just about every RTS strategy i've ever used, and the only real way that I can see is a tactical retreat.
In Age of Empires, when my main base (Gobwin Knob) was about to be destroyed, and me defeated, I would run away, leaving enough troops behind in my first base to defend it for a while, and inflict casualties, but will eventually be defeated, and got my most important people out to start multiple other bases in other, well defended areas, so I could use hit and run attacks.

Hey wait a second....highest ranking people leaving to make another base.....What if Stanly is using this for tactics, rather then just being an ego-centered maniac? I think I may see Stanly's win here.

[Arkenputtyknife]

Man, i've been going through just about every RTS strategy i've ever used, and the only real way that I can see is a tactical retreat.

The trouble with that is that Ansom said the plan is to attack GK on all sides and rush through the first breach in the defenses. It's hard to do a tactical retreat when you're surrounded.

[Aquillion]

The trouble with that is that Ansom said the plan is to attack GK on all sides and rush through the first breach in the defenses. It's hard to do a tactical retreat when you're surrounded.

Um, he already did a tactical retreat. I think that's the point. The only reason it might not work is because of Jillian (and I don't think he had any idea who she was, since he was surprised that she hated him.)

[Arkenputtyknife]

Um, he already did a tactical retreat.

Stanley has already done a tactical retreat. He has dwagons. Parson has no dwagons and has no direction to retreat. Now maybe the previous poster was talking about Stanley's vamoosing, but that's not the impression I had.

[hajo]

the plan is to attack GK on all sides and rush through the first breach in the defenses.

Parson knows that plan, so he could position most of his troops to defend just that one spot.
The key is to know where that spot will be, and the easy way to know would be to make the breach yourself, e.g. to just open the gate (or have it break open at the first knock).

Again, unconventional tactics: Ansom expects the defenders spread out evenly around the walls, so any spot would have only a handful of units, which would be relatively easy to defeat.
I expect Parson instead to put up a massive defense at just one spot, aka kill-zone.

[The Blind]

Also, for comparison, if I got this right, defenders at Cold Harbor and Pickett's Charge inflicted 6 times their own casualties; defenders at Marye's Heights and Franklin "only" inflicted 3 times their own casualties.

Once Ansom engages his army, how many turns would it take to defeat Parson? Assuming Parson doesn't find an exploit to win.

Those ratios sound reasonable; I don't know them myself. I expect Parson's battle to be far more bloody and disproportionate than any real-world analogue, though, for two reasons, one of which I've never seen mentioned.

1. Gobwin Knob is the best defensive position in the world. Any siege ought to have terrible losses, and everybody knows this. And it ought to mean a higher casualty count, because:
2. Morale seems to play no role in Erfworld.

In almost every real-life battle and in some games, like the Total War series, armies don't fight to the last man. They fight until one of them breaks. In Erfworld, that doesn't seem to happen, especially given what we've learned about the Obedience mechanic. We've also only seen mention of the option to Capture instead of Croak when it comes to Warlords and casters (and presumably Rulers). So armies probably won't be able to surrender when they are obviously lost; they still have to be destroyed. Casualties will be enormous if Parson can delay being overwhelmed by even a single turn.

Bottom line, Ansom has to either kill Stanley, thereby disbanding all the defenders, or kill every single unit in Gobwin Knob. That might take longer than we think. It depends on whether Gobwin Knob is a single hex or multiple hexes, and I don't know whether strategies of rapid-response (a thin line of defenders and a few heavy reserve groups to repulse any breakthroughs) will work in a turn-based game. It'd be all too easy for thin lines to get overwhelmed in multiple places and then have the reserves facing attack from all sides before it was their turn to respond.

In Age of Empires, when my main base (Gobwin Knob) was about to be destroyed, and me defeated, I would run away, leaving enough troops behind in my first base to defend it for a while, and inflict casualties, but will eventually be defeated, and got my most important people out to start multiple other bases in other, well defended areas, so I could use hit and run attacks.

I used to do this in Starcraft, too. I wasn't good enough to win, most of the time, but I'd take my Terrans and keep running and running. In a multiple player free-for-all, I might be the second-to-last remaining. It definitely seems to be what Stanley's doing. I don't think he's doing it to be tactically wise, though; all of his "walking this path alone" talk indicates he's written everyone off.

Again, unconventional tactics: Ansom expects the defenders spread out evenly around the walls, so any spot would have only a handful of units, which would be relatively easy to defeat.
I expect Parson instead to put up a massive defense at just one spot, aka kill-zone.

That does seem like his best strategy. That, and tunneling counter-attacks with Sizemore, if he can bypass or defeat the Marbits. I'm eager to find out what orders have Sizemore so mortified in the picture at the top of this Klog.

[SauroGrenom]

Hmmm... I don't think that the authors will simply kill off Stanley. I didn't think they would kill off Misty either, so that goes to show what my thoughts are worth.

As for Parson's strategy, it looks like he's going to send Sizemore to bottle up the tunnels. Ansom's plan was that the marbits in the tunnels would be a distraction drawing more troops to defend the tunnels.

The two best options I see with respect to the tunnels is to either collapse them (block that attack route) or to try and escape that way.

If he blocks the tunnels, then all his troops can be committed to defending the walls, and defeat that part of Ansom's plan.

If he slowly withdraws into the tunnels as the top of the city is lost, then he can fight a siberian war of attrition slowly retreating into the maze of tunnels.

[Aquillion]

Stanley has already done a tactical retreat. He has dwagons. Parson has no dwagons and has no direction to retreat. Now maybe the previous poster was talking about Stanley's vamoosing, but that's not the impression I had.

Oh. Well, Parson can't retreat anyway; his side's upkeep stops being paid when GK is captured. Even if he's able to survive without upkeep (uncertain), it doesn't seem likely that anyone else on his side can... I can't really see him letting them all die so he can run away.

Also, with no upkeep he definitely wouldn't get any food. Parson does seem to like his food.

[hajo]

with no upkeep he definitely wouldn't get any food. Parson does seem to like his food.

Not to mention the toys and the infos from his stupid meals

[Newtkeeper]

Oh. Well, Parson can't retreat anyway; his side's upkeep stops being paid when GK is captured. Even if he's able to survive without upkeep (uncertain), it doesn't seem likely that anyone else on his side can... I can't really see him letting them all die so he can run away.

Does it stop, though? We have seen 'mercenary factions', apparently without a capital, haven't we?

[Runar]

But, at least one of those mercenary factions (Jillian) seems to have their own treasury, given the qoute :"I spent almost my entire purse on that thinkagram" , so that means that that is how they get their food and stuff. So, since Parson doesn't have his own money, he would NOT get his own food and stuff, so he HAS to hold Gobwin Knob.

[hajo]

those mercenary factions (Jillian) seems to have their own treasury ..
since Parson doesn't have his own money, he would NOT get his own food and stuff, so he HAS to hold Gobwin Knob.

Sizemore estimated that Parson's battle-calculator might be worth more than half a million.
That should be enough to keep him alive, and perhaps start/keep & finance his own side.

[Lamech]

Actually I don't think 500,000 smuckers can be carried around otherwise Stanley would have taken the treasury. Jillian said purse so I think that is something different. Of course, Parson might be able to trade it for a moneymancy artifact, so I'm kind of being nitpicky.
Also if Parson can start his own side he might be able to convince the people of GK to "defect" to side Parson. Then Parson can probably make some crap up about being a "royal". And convince Ansom to go away. Assuming of course, sides can be determined, and Parson has a way of showing the defections.

[hajo]

I don't think 500,000 smuckers can be carried around
otherwise Stanley would have taken the treasury.

We haven't seen real money or coins on Erf yet.
So maybe it works like bank-accounts, with usage restricted by some rules.
How else could the payments to Charly work otherwise ?

[enthemic]

In all honesty I think it's too early to say what Parson will do.

When viewed from the perspective of Parson's mythic struggle - i.e his struggle with "escapism" versus "free will" (as depicted through Parson taking Erfworld at face value versus his unwillingness to obey Stanley) - Parson's course of action becomes a little more blurry. Add into the mix the suggestion that "thinkmancy" is directly related to the nature of "free will" in Erfworld and it's really anyones guess what Parson will gain from talking with Charley.

What we can surmise is...

From a story perspective it makes sense for the next strip to be about Prince Ansom's plans, either for battle or to predictably send a rescue party after Jillian, or more likely both. (This simply increases the suspense - what will Parson and Charley talk about? What will Jillian do, fight Stanley or claim Faq? )

Then we get a "filler" strip about Stanley, followed by a strip about either Parson or Jillian. From a mythic standpoint, it makes sense for it to be about Parson- his conversation with Charley has little bearing on either of his two mythic conflicts - and most likely we can expect this strip to simply increase the tension related to the "free will" conflict. (i.e. Charley attempts to dominate Parsons and we're left wondering whether he will obey or follow his own free will.) Either leave the ultimate free will question "Will Parson blindly obey Stanley" still unresolved as currently Parson has essentially been left to his own free will to indulge in his own personal comi-tragedy - (i.e. that he chooses escapism over engaging with the world.)

The expectation of the audience is that this conversation will reveal more about the fundamental nature of Erfworld and so it's possible that a deus-ex-machina of some sort will be introduced here too, although really I think the best we can hope for is some background exposition about the arkentools - Charley certainly seems to be in a position (the wizard of Oz position to be precise) to give that information to the audience.

Then we get a strip about Jillian and/or Stanley - which would sensibly be Jillian in a fight with Stanley (I think "you didn't hear a word I said, did you?" indicates that she's not likely to head directly to faq, besides her doing so would reduce some of the story tension from that plot thread.) Which results in her (or him) either getting captured or "disabled / lost under dangerous circumstance" (to increase the tension of this side plot).

Then finally we get a strip about Parson's plans... but at this point - perhaps prince Ansom has decided to divert his troops from the city as his main reason for taking the city no longer exists (although the title of this strip chapter suggests otherwise) Perhaps (although unlikely) Stanley/Jillian has been defeated or captured by Jillian/Stanley. Perhaps Parson has decided to surrender the city to save his own hide. (All of these seem pretty unlikely)

Charley's nature has (quite deftly) been left a mystery, so at this point it's hard to say where Parson will be, but if I had to guess I would say that Parson and Charley come to an agreement where Charley's Archons leave or become ineffective (they clearly make the battle a foregone conclusion, Ansom's forces are already pretty overwhelming) and Parson will be left with a "fighting chance" and a major conflict of some sort - ie will he continue to indulge in the escapism of trying to win "the game" or will he try to save his skin - or more likely will he (we) get to discover whether he really has free will or not.

Either way I think Wanda's recovery (and the strategy suggestion that she could create Croaked troops for defense) is a distraction/mcguffin, or at best represents Parson giving in to escapism (Will he interact with Erfworld as though it really exists, rather than is a though it's just a game/dream? So far he has managed to do both, or at least leave his motivations unexplained.) Ultimately I think this is the real gristle of this strip, and at this point is seems too early to have such a simple (and obvious) resolution to both the perceived conflict (the battle) and the underlying conflict (escapism).

(edited for spelling - all your spell checkers are belong to someone else)