Erf 118, Pg 106

[tomaO2]

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0069.html

Jilian initially performed the search as ordered. Only when her gwiffons started running out of move did she abandon it to ride to Ansom's rescue. There's absolutely no way Parson could've predicted where Jilian would lead her stack to search, and at what hex she'd be when she changed plans and beelined to Ansom.

*Sigh*

The orlies didn't have enough move to get close enough to find the dwagons and everyone knew it. She was only saying that to needle Sir Weinmire and she used it as an excuse to send him an a false search and get rid of him. this page gives Jillian's actual disposition.

[raphfrk]

Luckamancy gives a +2 to your forces in Battle A, combined with a -2 on your forces in Battle B. If battle A would have been a close call, but battle B would have been a landslide victory (for either side), then you're benefiting.
You'll win the close call with much less casualties, and the unwinnable battle will still be unwinnable.

That seems reasonable. It would mean that for maximum effectiveness, luckamancy requires being able to accurately calculate odds and this has been said to be a feature of luckamancy.

A normal luckamancer would probably just move luck from easy wins to close calls, but with mathamancy, he could determine it all with much more accuracy. He could move luck from a 60/40 battle to a 50/50 battle. The cumulative effects of all those slight changes would make a difference in the long run and could only be made to work with mathamancy.

Maybe Parson will be in a position where if he reduces the survival chance of one stack (containing a main character) from 10% to 0%, he can increase the chance of survival of another by 50%. From a pure logical viewpoint, he should do it, but it does mean stripping that person of their slight chance of survival.

It is kinda like not letting another person onto a overloaded lifeboat in order to save those people already on-board. It is not an easy thing to do, but someone who is willing to do it would end up saving lots more people's lives.

[SteveMB]

There is nothing to suggest that Jillian did a search.

"We are performing the search. Are we not?"
"So far."

The only possible way to square this with your theory is to assume that Webinar is too stupid to know what a search pattern looks like (which is inconsistent with him being a competent warlord, much less a highly respected one) or that he is skewing his interpretations in Jillian's favor (excuse me while I apply some liniment to my keeping-a-straight-face muscles).

[tomaO2]

Wow, I shoot down steve before he even makes his post. Try again.

[SteveMB]

Wow, I shoot down steve before he even makes his post. Try again.

I'm not sure what you're getting at.

That said, it's likely that Jillian was "not performing a search" in the sense that she was simply going through the motions and not really trying to find the wounded dwagons. However, that's a distinction without a difference -- she'd still be on an unpredictable (except to a Predictamancer, perhaps) route for the first portion of her move that turn, and her route would have to at least superficially resemble a genuine search pattern (or else Webinar would have an excuse to reject her orders on the grounds that they conflicted with Ansom's).

(If anything, it would be more difficult to predict the route of a half-hearted pretense of a search than to predict the route of a legitimate attempt at an efficient search pattern.)

this page gives Jillian's actual disposition.

You mean where she declares that she is changing the mission ("So here's the mission now." (emphasis added))? That's exactly what Narkis said in the first place.

[BRC]

It was stated that Jillian's forces only had barely enough move to get to Ansom. That's why. You do realise that Ansom's plan would have had NONE of Jillan's force able to reach Ansom's stack if they failed to find the dwagons right? That's why it didn't occur to Vinny to suggest it. It would have been an utter disaster to fail.

Besides, having the Archeons search other hexes IS splitting up. Also, to optimize such a strategy, they should have went on a search pattern and get back together further down, at the pincers area of the dwagon doughnut. Which they did not because Jillian did not want to search. She said she did not want to search. They found the dwagons, not because they were searching but because they happened to be in the path of the most direct root to Ansom. You don't put your troops in the path of the most direct root to where you KNOW they will be going to reinforce others.

Try re-reading this whole sequence in light of what I have said. There is nothing to suggest that Jillian did a search.

http://www.giantitp.com/comics/erf0069.html

The first panel, Jillian says "We are performing the search, are we not" and whats his name (I forget) Says "So far". This implies that a search has been occurring. Now, this could be taken to mean that Jillian has merely outlined her plan for the search,but the use of the term "Fresher mounts" implies that they had moved this turn, implying that they had begun carrying out the search.
Here, Jillian started her turn at point A, ansom, at point B ordered her to search for the dwagons. She does so for abit, ending up at point C, where she ditches whatshisname and heads straight for ansom. Now, it just so happens that the Dwagons were on the most direct route between points C and B, but Parson had no way of knowing where point C would be. In all likelyhood, he assumed that if Jillian headed to help Ansom, she would do so from point A. So it's highly likely that the dwagons are NOT between the two points Parson knew about (A and B), but that they are between points B and C.

So in short, he mainly got unlucky, you can't really plan for that.

[Lizard Lord]

I think a klog will be coming up to explain EXACTLY what the sword does.

[Zolem]

I believe the relevant fact is that the Chief Warlord's bonus applies to all of the troops on his side (Klog 4). If Parson's Leadership bonus really has been increased by the sword, that means Gobwin Knob gets an across-the-board buff. In the extreme case where his effective Leadership is now at the maximum (as might be expected in the spec sheet for a Perfect Warlord), every single GK stack would have as much bonus as if Ansom was able to personally command every stack in the Coalition (minus Ansom's personal contribution as a combat unit, of course, plus however far Ansom may be from perfect.) Parson has managed to achieve favorable odds while under extreme handicaps, including not having any Warlord bonuses worth talking about. Those favorable odds are the result of the superior tactics and gambles you're talking about- equalizing or even beating the Coalition's Leadership advantages can only be good for GK.

Let's not forget that it adds DIRECTLY IN VALUE to the units. Let's say the sword gives him +10 leadership, as I don't think it would actually raise it to MAXIMUM. That may be a truely perfect warlord, but really all the standard Erf interpritation requires is somebody with high leadership to complement hsis efective strategies to improve the results. In my example, he now adds 12 to all unit stats. Now then, he used to add 2. Any troop that had a base stat of 12 just doubled it. Anything less got an over 100% increace. So a 5 Hit lv1 Goblin Spearman is now 17 Hit. That is a huge difference. And that's not even counting the attack and defense bonuses. His odds have seriously ramped the boop up.

And I'm still holding out for Ruthelessness beign a buff stat, such as lowering units under his commands defense and raising their attack stat.

[SteveMB]

I think a klog will be coming up to explain EXACTLY what the sword does.

Actually, I doubt that -- what Parson knows is what we know (i.e. what it says on the box). Also, he's going to be busy now that his turn has started.

There may be a few aspects of the coming battle and its aftermath that lend themselves to a Klog commentary, but I think we'll find out what the sword does the same way Parson does -- by demonstration.

Here, Jillian started her turn at point A, ansom, at point B ordered her to search for the dwagons. She does so for abit, ending up at point C, where she ditches whatshisname and heads straight for ansom. Now, it just so happens that the Dwagons were on the most direct route between points C and B, but Parson had no way of knowing where point C would be. In all likelyhood, he assumed that if Jillian headed to help Ansom, she would do so from point A. So it's highly likely that the dwagons are NOT between the two points Parson knew about (A and B), but that they are between points A and C.

I think that last bit is supposed to be "between points B and C" (B = Ansom's location; C = location where Jillian dropped the pretense of conducting a search and ditched Webinar and "Toadface").

[BRC]

I think that last bit is supposed to be "between points B and C" (B = Ansom's location; C = location where Jillian dropped the pretense of conducting a search and ditched Webinar and "Toadface").

Thanks, fixed it.

[teratorn]

There was no info with this breakfast, hinting that Parson's knowledge of Erfworld is now acceptable for the perfect warlord.

We had stupid meals, subways, now lucky charms. Now that the spell is done I wonder what will be Parson's next meal.

[Justyn]

There was no info with this breakfast, hinting thar Parson's knowledge of Erfworld is now acceptable for the perfect warlord.

We had stupid meals, subways, now lucky charms. Now that the spell is done I wonder what will be Parson's next meal.

Or, his knowledge of Erfworld is at least good enough for the situation at hand. No need to know how to found cities if you are going to die tomorrow.

[Ghull_Ka]

Nice pose from Parson with the sword. It's the same pose that I saw Arthas strike in the new Wrath of the Lich King preview trailer. Pretty powerful pose.

http://www.worldofwarcraft.com/wrath/intro.xml

[Etheric]

I think they wre performing a search to start with, but the fact remains that the dwagon stack could have been further away than it was.

Its position was plot driven whatever you say. It had to be close enough for Ansom to ride to rescue, but he could not have enough move to escape the dragon donut. That is why it was 2 spaces away, not any tactical reason from parson.

From Parsons point of view it was a bad position. 6 Hexes further away whether there was a lake there or not would have been better. Or move the dragon donut to a different position if he had to be above the lake.

The current strip has also strong Deux Ex Machina feel. Spending 100+ strips saying how weak GK is then giving something as powerful as that in the breakfast.. I was hoping for something clever but too much is plot driven. Maybe the plot strings are more visible with 1 page at a time, but still.

I guess the sword gives a large leadership bonus (taking Parson to about 9 or so), and the luckamancy will give the edge needed. The odds are much better than 58.9% now wiht the leadership bonus, and with the luckamancy Parson should survive easily.

[teratorn]

The current strip has also strong Deux Ex Machina feel.

I wish people would stop using that expression, or at least only using it when it's adequate. I'm tired of any small plot device being called Deus ex machina. The term requires something extremely unlikely and unexpected, while the gifts in the breakfast have been a feature of this strip, and they don't change the fact that GK is still severely outnumbered -- even if Parson's bonus were similar to Ansom's (and we don't know that) the advantage would be on Ansom's side.

The important thing with the sword is that it allows Parson to fight, by changing his character, lifting some of problems with hand on hand killing (I think he would be similar to Sizemore in that regard), and probably also by giving him fighting skills.

[tomaO2]

"We are performing the search. Are we not?"
"So far."

The only possible way to square this with your theory is to assume that Webinar is too stupid to know what a search pattern looks like (which is inconsistent with him being a competent warlord, much less a highly respected one) or that he is skewing his interpretations in Jillian's favor (excuse me while I apply some liniment to my keeping-a-straight-face muscles).

It mostly had me being annoyed with you repeating what someone else had already said. I was getting to it. You (or anyone else for that matter) doesn't have to say the exact same thing someone else said and pass it off as your own brilliant observation.


Now, I disagree with you. I already said why I disgree with you. Perhaps you did not understand. I will try once more time.

What Jillian said is misleading. Sure, they are searching but they are doing it when there is no chance whatsoever of finding anything. With the units that matter, there is no difference at this moment to searching and moving in a direct line to Ansom. Wanda stated that Jillian is behaving in the way they want.

The dwagons must be close to where Ansom is. The only units that are able to search nearby are the Archeons and a few gwiffons. They can sent the Orlies and the flying centaur around all they like but Jillian knows they won't find anything because it's too far. The archeons and Gwiffons are NOT searching this early area because the plan was to search the nearby area where the dwagons are most likely around.

Once we get to the area where a search would be warranted by the last remaining units Jillian tells them they are not going to do so. She and the archeons were always on a direct route to Ansom. The other units that did actual searching was a distraction in order to stop criticism until she could get rid of most of the units.

What is so hard to understand?

[fendrin]

I think they wre performing a search to start with, but the fact remains that the dwagon stack could have been further away than it was.

Its position was plot driven whatever you say. It had to be close enough for Ansom to ride to rescue, but he could not have enough move to escape the dragon donut. That is why it was 2 spaces away, not any tactical reason from parson.

From Parsons point of view it was a bad position. 6 Hexes further away whether there was a lake there or not would have been better. Or move the dragon donut to a different position if he had to be above the lake.

My interpretation was that if the dwagons were further away they would not have had sufficient move to take out the rest of the siege. Putting the dwagons over the lake was the best option without using more move. Using more move meant croaking less siege. Croaking less than 100% of the siege meant that Ansom was still a threat.

Truth be told, we don't have enough information to determine whether or not Parson could have put the dwagons anywhere further away. To do that we would need full information on the dwagon's move, the position of the siege, the effective move of the column, the placement of archery units throughout the column, etc.

The current strip has also strong Deux Ex Machina feel. Spending 100+ strips saying how weak GK is then giving something as powerful as that in the breakfast.. I was hoping for something clever but too much is plot driven. Maybe the plot strings are more visible with 1 page at a time, but still.

I guess the sword gives a large leadership bonus (taking Parson to about 9 or so), and the luckamancy will give the edge needed. The odds are much better than 58.9% now wiht the leadership bonus, and with the luckamancy Parson should survive easily.

Huge assumptions being made here... we don't know how much of a leadership bonus Parson is getting from the sword (could be as little as +1).

Second, this is not a 'Deus ex Machina' because we all knew it was going to happen. We didn't know the details, but we didn't have to. We knew that the sword was coming, and we knew it would improve Parson's chances of victory. That is not a 'Deus ex Machina', in any sense of the phrase (if a car plane lands and titans get out, telling Ansom to leave GK alone, THAT would be a 'Deus ex Machina' in every sense of the term).

As for the comic being plot driven, of course it is. It's story. Whatever made you think it wouldn't be plot driven?

It mostly had me being annoyed with you repeating what someone else had already said. I was getting to it. You (or anyone else for that matter) doesn't have to say the exact same thing someone else said and pass it off as your own brilliant observation.

Oy ve!

First off, it is the nature of message boards for people to miss a couple of posts when they reply, especially in a highly active thread like this one.

Second, we have already been through this exact argument back when the strips in question were new! You think your arguments are new and creative? Think again!

What Jillian said is misleading. Sure, they are searching but they are doing it when there is no chance whatsoever of finding anything. With the units that matter, there is no difference at this moment to searching and moving in a direct line to Ansom. Wanda stated that Jillian is behaving in the way they want.

The dwagons must be close to where Ansom is. The only units that are able to search nearby are the Archeons and a few gwiffons. They can sent the Orlies and the flying centaur around all they like but Jillian knows they won't find anything because it's too far. The archeons and Gwiffons are NOT searching this early area because the plan was to search the nearby area where the dwagons are most likely around.

Jilian does not know how far away from Ansom the dwagons are. They don't know how much move the dwagons had left when they stopped attacking. All they know is where the dwagons were last seen, and where the B dwagons are. As far as they know, the A dwagons flew all the way around and are behind Jillian.

Once we get to the area where a search would be warranted by the last remaining units Jillian tells them they are not going to do so. She and the archeons were always on a direct route to Ansom. The other units that did actual searching was a distraction in order to stop criticism until she could get rid of most of the units.

What is so hard to understand?

It's hard to understand how 'getting into position to perform the search' is 'performing the search'.

[SteveMB]

What Jillian said is misleading. Sure, they are searching but they are doing it when there is no chance whatsoever of finding anything.

There's some truth to that, but it's a bit of an exaggeration. Yes, Jillian was not sincerely attempting to find the wounded dwagons. However, she was going through the motions so that Webinar had no excuse to accuse her of insubordination. To do that, she couldn't simply fly a direct path back to Ansom -- not right away. If she did, the fact that she wasn't even trying to do a legitimate search would be too obvious.

Note that she ditched the other warlords and changed the mission when she had exactly enough move left to rescue Ansom & Co and punch through the strong hex. That indicates that she kept up the "search" for as long as she could, and changed the mission only when she reached the point where she had to decide (which makes sense, both in terms of stringing Webinar along and in terms of the internal struggle with the suggestion spell).

Obviously, Parson had no way of predicting which hex she'd be in when that happened.

Jilian does not know how far away from Ansom the dwagons are. They don't know how much move the dwagons had left when they stopped attacking. All they know is where the dwagons were last seen, and where the B dwagons are. As far as they know, the A dwagons flew all the way around and are behind Jillian.

Actually, I agree with tomaO2's inference that the dwagons couldn't be very far away, and that Ansom would know this -- he'd know approximately how much move a dwagon has (and if any surviving warlords/casters saw the raiders, he'd have more precise intel) and how far they moved during the column raids. Most of all, he'd know that the enemy would want to make as many raids as possible before breaking off -- even His Toolishness knows that much about basic tactics.

Basically, Ansom would know that the dwagons were almost certainly in one of the white hexes on the third map on this page, probably not too far away from the column.

[fendrin]

Actually, I agree with tomaO2's inference that the dwagons couldn't be very far away, and that Ansom would know this -- he'd know approximately how much move a dwagon has (and if any surviving warlords/casters saw the raiders, he'd have more precise intel) and how far they moved during the column raids. Most of all, he'd know that the enemy would want to make as many raids as possible before breaking off -- even His Toolishness knows that much about basic tactics.

Basically, Ansom would know that the dwagons were almost certainly in one of the white hexes on the third map on this page, probably not too far away from the column.

Ansom couldn't know whether the dwagons stopped attacking because of insufficient move or because they were low on hits. For that matter, even we don't know for sure, though what we know of Parson's plan implies that it was due to move restrictions.

[SteveMB]

Ansom couldn't know whether the dwagons stopped attacking because of insufficient move or because they were low on hits. For that matter, even we don't know for sure, though what we know of Parson's plan implies that it was due to move restrictions.

True, but the plan would have to allow for both possibilities -- putting the hiding place too far away would force the raiders to prematurely break off even if they weren't running low on hits, and that would be obvious enough that Ansom would 1)know it and 2)assume that even Stanley would know it.

[fendrin]

True, but the plan would have to allow for both possibilities -- putting the hiding place too far away would force the raiders to prematurely break off even if they weren't running low on hits, and that would be obvious enough that Ansom would 1)know it and 2)assume that even Stanley would know it.

Ansom could only have known how many hits the dwagons had left if there was a warlord in the last hex hit, but I think that if that were the case, we would have heard about it when he was planning the counter-attack. Instead, he sighs and surmises that they were low on move. As the definition says, it was little more than a guess.

[teratorn]

Ansom couldn't know whether the dwagons stopped attacking because of insufficient move or because they were low on hits. For that matter, even we don't know for sure, though what we know of Parson's plan implies that it was due to move restrictions.

I would guess that for most of them it would have been hitpoints, but that the limiting factor was the low move of some of them. Those dwagons were in really bad shape and were easily defeated.

[Douglas]

I wish people would stop using that expression, or at least only using it when it's adequate. I'm tired of any small plot device being called Deus ex machina. The term requires something extremely unlikely and unexpected, while the gifts in the breakfast have been a feature of this strip, and they don't change the fact that GK is still severely outnumbered -- even if Parson's bonus were similar to Ansom's (and we don't know that) the advantage would be on Ansom's side.

I agree. The term originated, as I recall, from a tendency in ancient greek plays to end the play with, quite literally, a god descending from above and personally resolving everything in ways that would have been utterly impossible without the god's intervention. Nothing that has happened so far in Erfworld is anywhere near that kind of ass pull.

[Etheric]

Note that she ditched the other warlords and changed the mission when she had exactly enough move left to rescue Ansom & Co and punch through the strong hex. That indicates that she kept up the "search" for as long as she could, and changed the mission only when she reached the point where she had to decide (which makes sense, both in terms of stringing Webinar along and in terms of the internal struggle with the suggestion spell).

Obviously, Parson had no way of predicting which hex she'd be in when that happened.

That is a big assumption too. You know when she started the turn, so you know approximately whcih direction she will be coming from. Unless the search was done in a strange way.

The fact remains that it would be HARD to get to the gap wihtout finding the dragons. Most directions would do it. Also the bats should have found the wounded stack if the scoutiung had been done properly.

Note the conversation with Wanda about the spell happened AFTER Parson put the dwagon stack down. You can assume he had that conversation with her before but he had limited time to talk to her the previous night.

The fact remains that in asymetrical warfare the key is not to lose units. So if you can only get 35% of the siege this turn and 50% the next then it is better to do that rather than take a risk. You put the stack somewhere SAFE.
Or you put the dragon donut somewhere else.

The reason the stack was there was plot related not parson related. It had to be close enough for Ansom to reach it for the plot to work. You can finesse it any way you want but that is why the stack was where it was.

Anyway no point argueing about any more, people have made up their minds for me it is a weakness that too much is moving "at the speed of plot" rather than flowing naturally, which is a shame.

[ishnar]

Not punching someone in the face while giving them the evil eye is not a "lot of respect"; unless you are reading a panel or page that I missed.

Calling an action girl like Jillian "chickie" is usualy grounds for getting hit. HARD. Jillian is putting up with Caesar Borgata for his (probably) higher Direct Bonus. She is probably thinking that getting rid of Stanley the Worm is worth letting a few sexist remarks slide.

I think that if he makes one too many remarks, Jillian just might need to speak with a proctologist to get her boot back.

You apparently missed the first two panels in the strip you referenced. It wasn't until panel 3 where he called her Chickie that she gave him the eye.

Her words don't sound at all resentful in the first two panels. She sounds relieved and excited.

[SteveMB]

You apparently missed the first two panels in the strip you referenced. It wasn't until panel 3 where he called her Chickie that she gave him the eye.

Her words don't sound at all resentful in the first two panels. She sounds relieved and excited.

Huh? It looks to me that the conversation in the first two panels is between Vinny and Caesar.

[ishnar]

2) Ruthlessness - Means willing to do stuff you maybe not normally willing to do... like fight. Sizemore may not have to kill anything now... Parsons may do it all himself. Before this comic, who thought that Parson would physically get involved... going forth and slaughtering hordes of enemies, especially if it's not expected is pretty ruthless... even more so if he makes a beeline straight for Ansom or the other warlords.

Erm, no it does NOT. Ruthlessness has nothing to do with willingness to fight, that's courage, resposibility, fear, hate, love, etc, those compel one to fight or avoid fighting. Ruthlessness affects HOW one fights, not whether they fight at all.

[BRC]

This whole tomaO2 debate seems to be a case of whether you take the view that Parson is Brilliant until proven Incompetent or Vice Versa.
tomaO2 went in with the idea that Parson was incompetent for putting his dwagons there, and doesn't think there is enough evidence to prove Jillian had actually begun her search, that she did anything besides make a beeline for ansom that turn. Because there is insufficient evidence, tomaO2 is sticking to his/her original idea.
We are going into it with the assumption that Parson is a skilled tactician who wouldn't make such a mistake, and since there isn't really any evidence to show that Jillian only moved in a straight line that turn, we don't believe she did, so we stick to our original assessment.

Now, this could be a case of Confirmation Bias ( Somthing I read about in my psych textbook, it's where people focus on evidence that confirms their decisions and views rather than the stuff that says they were wrong), but I'm already biased in this argument so who am I to say.

[ishnar]

Huh? It looks to me that the conversation in the first two panels is between Vinny and Caesar.

Ya, I thought of that too, but it doesn't really fit. If he were talking to Vinnie in the first two panels, then he should be talking to Vinnie in the third too. The commander is the one that gives the passdown even if someone lower on the chain of command is family. The only reason for Vinnie to step forward would be if there were some pre-existing issues between Caesar and Jillian, and then I'd think the artist would make a point of it being Vinnie doing the passdown. Also, if Vinnie stepped forward and did the passdown without Jillians' direction, then Vinnie also insulted Jillian, and Vinnie doesn't seem the type to do that.

Of course, if it were Vinnie speaking in the first two panels, then calling Jillian Chickie is certainly the lesser insult and only the second insult Caesar gives Jullian. The first, of course, being completely ignoring her.

Still, the other poster did have a point about the social stat, in wargames. Sucks getting someone with a higher social stat in charge of an armed force. So his taking over might not reflect a higher leadership score. I still haven't seen anyone justify 9 as a ceiling though.

[SteveMB]

Ya, I thought of that too, but it doesn't really fit. If he were talking to Vinnie in the first two panels, then he should be talking to Vinnie in the third too. The commander is the one that gives the passdown even if someone lower on the chain is family. The only reason for Vinnie to step forward would be if there were some pre-existing issues between Caesar and Jillian, and then I'd think the artist would make a point of it being Vinnie doing the passdown.

Of course, if it were Vinnie speaking in the first two panels, then calling Jillian Chickie is certainly the lesser insult and only the second insult Caesar gives Jillian.

Looking at the second panel, it seems clear to me that the arrow on the speech balloon is pointing at a figure standing in midair (Vinny) and not at the one seated on a gwiffon (Jillian).

I don't think it was a slight, though -- it looks like Vinny personally greeted Caesar Borgata ("Didn't know you'd be comin' personally.") as an old friend and colleague. The formalities of Caesar declaring that he was taking command of the operation came later (third panel)... and we still don't know Jillian's full reaction to that.

(Also, we don't know how much the expeditionary force knows about why Charlie's Archons bailed on them. It's possible that Caesar's "This all you got?" question is referring specifically to their absence.)

Still, the other poster did have a point about the social stat, in wargames. Sucks getting someone with a higher social stat in charge of an armed force. So his taking over might not reflect a higher leadership score.

True, especially given Ansom's views about the prerogatives and responsibilities of noble/royal rank.