Erfworld 119, page 107

[AngryAngel]

See my response to GameBird above. Basically, if what you were saying was correct, then every one in ten groups flying near Faq would have seen it. With those odds, Faq's bubble would have burst long ago.

While you are theoretically correct, you're forgetting that each overfly group had a ten percent chance of seeing Faq. Just because over time their(Faq's) 'die rolls' will even out, doesn't mean they can't hit a 'hot streak'. Also remember, Jack could cast distractions: Hey, is that a city?, wait, WTF is that over there?

[Aquillion]

Regarding Wanda being the predictamancer -- it's a nice theory, but we know it isn't the case, because we've seen what Wanda looked like back in Faq (she's in panel 3; note the skull pin already in her hair and her distinctively dusky skin -- compare with her shot on the next page, and it's obvious they're the same person.) And it doesn't look anything at all like the Predictamancer pictured in today's page, with very pink skin and a totally different style of dress.

The fact that she already had the skull pin back in Faq strongly implies that she's always been a croakamancer.

(Oh, and this page also provides another reason why Stanley didn't bring more units, if we needed one. More units = more chances for the veil to get blown. Still sort of odd that he didn't bring his Thinkamancer, though. She's valuable, and he has no reason to think she's betrayed him.)

Also, we don't really know the rules well enough to say how Faq fell. How did Stanley know about it in the first place? It doesn't seem likely that he just stumbled on it. Maybe Dwagons can see through veils naturally, or maybe that's one of the powers of the Arkenhammer. Maybe it was part of a deal he cut with Charlie that went sour (Charlie's Archons seem to have lots of ability to deal with magic, and probably Thinkamancy could help somehow, too.) Maybe he just got fantastically lucky because the plot required it. Who knows?

[teratorn]

And it doesn't look anything at all like the Predictamancer pictured in today's page, with very pink skin and a totally different style of dress.

That's Jack.

[fendrin]

Regarding Wanda being the predictamancer -- it's a nice theory, but we know it isn't the case, because we've seen what Wanda looked like back in Faq (she's in panel 3; note the skull pin already in her hair and her distinctively dusky skin -- compare with her shot on the next page, and it's obvious they're the same person.) And it doesn't look anything at all like the Predictamancer pictured in today's page, with very pink skin and a totally different style of dress.

The fact that she already had the skull pin back in Faq strongly implies that she's always been a croakamancer.

(Oh, and this page also provides another reason why Stanley didn't bring more units, if we needed one. More units = more chances for the veil to get blown. Still sort of odd that he didn't bring his Thinkamancer, though. She's valuable, and he has no reason to think she's betrayed him.)

Of course the 'mancer in today's page looks nothing like Wanda... it's Jack!

As for not taking Maggie, Stanley obviously can utilize her services from afar somehow, otherwise, he couldn't have interrupted Parson's tirade to Ansom to ask Maggie how to fix Jack.

[fractal]

And it doesn't look anything at all like the Predictamancer pictured in today's page, with very pink skin and a totally different style of dress.

I assume that's Jack, not the Predictamancer.

Anyway, a possible explanation for the failure of the Predictamancer/Foolamancer combo is this: Jillian already explained that FAQ fell to a "large overflight of dwagons". Such a flight could conceivably have passed over more than one city (perhaps even dwagons in both hexes at the same time?). Such a circumstance would have exceeded Jack's ability to protect FAQ. Furthermore, we know that Banhammer wanted his heir to survive, so if Jillian's mercenaries would have been insufficient to stop Stanley's dwagons, she might have been sent out as a mercenary anyway (if the Predictamancer even knew about the impending doom, rather than just "which city do we need to Veil next?").

[tomaO2]

Could be Jack or the Predictamancer, hard to say, though I agree that the former option is rather more likely. I don't think that we'd be lied to about Wanda. PClips has said they try and be relatively straightforeward with their stories and not try really weird surprises. Besides, even her name suggests that she's not a Predictamancer. We have her listed as a Croakamancer. She has said she is a Croakamancer. Besides, as I have pointed out, it's very probable that at least 1 caster remained curing the Gobwin coup.

I think the reason FAQ was discovered has let to do with Jack and more to do with Misty. As a Lookamancer, she would be able to see all three cities. We have no idea what her range is but when your in it she sees everything except something covered by a Foolmancer and Jack can only cover one city at a time.

[Lamech]

Multiple cities at a time would explain the loss of FAQ, but not the speed and surprise. Jillian would have known what was happening much sooner.

Regarding Wanda being the predictamancer -- it's a nice theory, but we know it isn't the case, because we've seen what Wanda looked like back in Faq (she's in panel 3; note the skull pin already in her hair and her distinctively dusky skin -- compare with her shot on the next page, and it's obvious they're the same person.) And it doesn't look anything at all like the Predictamancer pictured in today's page, with very pink skin and a totally different style of dress.

Its possible Wanda liked croakamancy, but was a good enough predictamancer that she did all the predictamancy work. Also how did Jillian get the message? A thinkamancer maybe, perhaps Wanda did the message running.


If Wanda can do all those things(findamancy, croakamancy, findamancy, predictamancy), maybe Jack has the multiple magic-type thing going too. If he access to lookamancy that would explain why he seems to do so little in the link up. It would also be distinctly bad for Jillian and co.

[raphfrk]

What in the world happened to the other to the predictamancer? And why didn't the predictamancer know about the dwagons ahead of time? Under normal circumstances, the predictamancer knew every city that would have been seen.

Maybe Stanley was able to see 2 cities at once. It didn't matter which one was veiled. Also, the predictamancer did predict that the kingdom would fall (hence Jillian's existence)

[Zolem]

I don't think that's necessarily so. I don't know enough about predictamancy to say.

- Perhaps predictamancy only answers specific questions cast during long and difficult spells, answered by the whim of the Titans. Like Commune in D&D.

- Perhaps predictamancy has a failure rate and the caster is not informed of whether the spell failed (and generated a false prophecy) or succeeded (and revealed the future). Like Augury and Divination in D&D.

- Perhaps something else happened to interrupt the regular cycle of learning about the future: romantic entanglement, other duties, a fickle ruler, etc. Like real life.

Or maybe all three.

I'm all for Wanda being the predictamancer, but option 1 there seems prety good. To viel the next city, you just ask which one needs to be veiled next to hide it. Problem is, while Jack vieled Pl;otconvenianceberg, letting Sofaking forces go by it, Stanly found FAQ ten seconds later (the question was which one will be found next, not which one needs cloaking the most) and so FAQ was wrecked. The predictamancer was taken. If it was Wanda, she probably just surendered because she already predicted FAQ would fall. She used Croakamancy for Stanly since it was useful at the time, Stanly took it that she was a Croakamancer, gave her her title, and she has been on team Hammer ever since.

[dr pepper]

Jack!

Damn, these cartoonists are scary-smart. They laid it right in front of us at the beginning of Stanley's expedition, and we didn't see it.

[raphfrk]

If her original function was as a Predictamancer, but she didn't really care for it, and her predictions gave her an indication of how to get on the winning side with opportunities to practice the class of magic she preferred, it might explain a few things about her backstory.

She may have even predicted Parson, and his (presumed) future success.

[raphfrk]

If the predictamancer knew Banhammer was going to fall, they would be forced (by Duty) to do whatever they could to prevent it (such as do they're best to find out when it would happen and notify Jillian so that the troops can be around to prevent it).

Not necessarily, perhaps the prediction was that the city would fall on date X and the force would exceed the full military might of the kingdom. Calling Jillian home would not affect the outcome (they would still lose, but would do more damage to the attackers). The King decided that notwithstanding that he 'hated' her, he didn't want his heir to die needlessly.

[MattR]

This is a way out there thought.... BUT are we absolutely certain that Jillian is still the heir. I mean, can she tell whether she is or not? I know its not in her stats or Ansom would have been able to read it on her wouldnt he?

There is a mechanism there for naming someone else heir.. especially if Banhammer doesnt like her.

Its just... if he really took the threat to the city seriously why would he allow he to run off on potentially dangerous missions without having a backup plan in place?

[stupidface]

Anyone have any theories as to how Jack's skin turned grey?

[fendrin]

Anyone have any theories as to how Jack's skin turned grey?

The link, or maybe the severing of it.

Misty, Maggie, and Jack all have grey skin.

Correction: Misty's skin was grey prior to the severing.

That might explain why they all wear those robes... less disturbing to look at.

[fractal]

And so, we have discovered that the reason Stanley couldn't restore the foolamancer earlier is that he didn't know jack.

[dr pepper]

Varia, I think you may have hit the nail on the head as to what happens next. Also, I'm assuming that "Jack" is a pop culture reference; can anyone enlighten me?

When we first saw the foolmancer in his demented state, he took the form of the Joker, one of Batman's enemies. Specifically he looked like the Joker as played by popular actor Jack Nicholson. Jack Nicholson is known for his intense characters, distinctive hair and features, unmistakable voice, memorable lines, and fascinating personal life. He is often referred to just as "Jack", without his last name. And lots of people love to do impressions of him.

[fehler]

I always wondered why Stanley would bother bringing "The Turd Guy" on a mission, even if it was just to save him from turning barbarian when the Gobwins broke alliance. But it makes sense in this way: Stanley has a "back door" to FAQ, cut through solid rock.

If Wanda isn't the predictamancer, then she betrayed FAQ by doing something "unpredictable" to the original FAQ Predictamancer or messing with Jack's foolies. I'm thinking she isn't, since if she was, Jillian would have to conclude Wanda's betrayal when she saw her the first time. That original predictamancer is probablly hiding out in the Magic Kingdom playing the ponies (I would too if I saw an overwhelming force of dwagons on the inbound and a betrayal from within).

[fendrin]

I'm thinking she isn't, since if she was, Jillian would have to conclude Wanda's betrayal when she saw her the first time.

Of all of Jillian's personal strengths, she has yet to show us that either intelligence or deductive logic is one of them. Just because we figured that out doesn't mean Jillian would.

[SteveMB]

Hmmm... if Banhammer was betrayed (rather than simply having the Foolamancer/Predictamancer system happen to fail when Stanley was passing through), that raises the question of whether the attack was deliberately scheduled for a time when Jillian was out on a mission (either because her absence left their defenses even weaker than usual or specifically to keep her out of harm's way).

Of all of Jillian's personal strengths, she has yet to show us that either intelligence or deductive logic is one of them. Just because we figured that out doesn't mean Jillian would.

There's also the problem of objectivity.

[The Old Hack]

Sometimes Parson strikes me as positively chilling. Has anyone here ever either gone spelunking or visited a mine? I think it is fair to say that flooding and gas are two of the most terrifying hazards underground ventures have to offer. And when they are used as warfare...

Oh, and to add to the Wanda discussion: I can easily see Wanda having been a Croakamancer even back in Faq, but being told by Banhammer that "Croakamancy is useless. Can you do anything we can use, or should I just disband you?" This, incidentally, would also provide good motivation for a caster to turn traitor, to be ordered to constantly perform outside her preferred specialty.

[Wort]

Oh, and to add to the Wanda discussion: I can easily see Wanda having been a Croakamancer even back in Faq, but being told by Banhammer that "Croakamancy is useless. Can you do anything we can use, or should I just disband you?" This, incidentally, would also provide good motivation for a caster to turn traitor, to be ordered to constantly perform outside her preferred specialty.

I think this is quite clever. At the same time, I do doubt that casters would just pop randomly. Wouldn't city production be planned?

Best,
Wort

[Earendill]

Did the FAQ veiling system fail or was it intended?

Jillian says that the FAQ kingdom existed for a long time . We know Transylvito is close and they are flyers with air scouts available - Cesare actually does not believe it's possible for FAQ to be there. There have been vampire scouts spotted before yet they never spotted FAQ (again, for "a long time").

This means that the Predictamancer/Foolmancer was 100% secure, at least against regular flyer units. So, either Stanley and his dwagons had some special scouting or illusion resisting ability that the bats/vampires do not - or it was intentional/accidental.

When Jillian describes Wanda to Ansom she says "a caster". Not a croakmancer though she is probably aware of her present skills.

She also says that Wanda was "obviously" captured from FAQ - that's not obvious at all. The level of trust Wanda has from Stanley is a lot higher then for other of his casters, even from his own tribe, like Sizemore. Wanda is actually Sizemore's direct superior. And let's not mention the 3 slave mancers... This is not the trust you put into someone you captured and enslaved against her will - but maybe into someone who came to you and offered you a kingdom.


Wanda seems to have been attached to Jillian since FAQ days (both were unhappy rejects at that time) so she might have done it on purpose so Jillian survives.

More arguments for a possible treason from Wanda the predictamancer...

[Arkenputtyknife]

King Banhammer has a Predictamancer. The Predictamancer is essential for the veiling of the kingdom. As long as the Predictamancer/Foolamancer team works well the kingdom of FAQ is indetectable so he/she was probably pretty good.

Until Stanley flew through with his 50+ dwagons, spread out over multiple hexes, making it impossible to keep up the veil because the Foolamancer could only veil one city at a time.

Just a thought.

[Earendill]

I think this is quite clever. At the same time, I do doubt that casters would just pop randomly. Wouldn't city production be planned?

Best,
Wort

The whole comic is about the wrong person popping in a predefined function - see Sizemore, Stanley, Jillian and even Parsons. The titans need to check out their popping system. Wanda might have been popped as a predictamancer initially

[Earendill]

Until Stanley flew through with his 50+ dwagons, spread out over multiple hexes, making it impossible to keep up the veil because the Foolamancer could only veil one city at a time.

Just a thought.

Why would he conduct such a large area scan over a desert place? And why could the doombats (dedicated scouts and in large numbers) not do the same ?

[fractal]

We've all been distracted by the Foolamancer revelation. However, it's also worth noting that we now know exactly what Charlie asked for - 250K, and that it was considered a completely unreasonable price for a turn of fourteen-odd Archons. By corollary, if the treasury of Gobwin Knob still has ~150K, that could theoretically muster quite a bit in the way of temporary forces, at least if Parson had someplace to hire them from. Even one turn of hit-and-run from that many Archons could probably further decimate the siege.

Clearly hiring Charlie before Ansom would have been an excellent move for Stanley (unless there's some hefty initial "work for me and not my enemies" payment that Ansom already made which Stanley couldn't afford).

[The Old Hack]

I think this is quite clever. At the same time, I do doubt that casters would just pop randomly. Wouldn't city production be planned?

Best,
Wort

I agree, but then I am also a proponent of the crazy theory that Jillian captured Wanda from elsewhere and then dragged her back to Faq as spoils of war.

[dr pepper]

- Perhaps predictamancy has a failure rate and the caster is not informed of whether the spell failed (and generated a false prophecy) or succeeded (and revealed the future). Like Augury and Divination in D&D.

I think it has to be that way, otherwise predictamancy would lead to stalemate.

My guess is that predictamancy only gives you the top 2 or 3 possible outcomes-- say of 30% or better. I can see a commander setting up 3 possible attacks and choosing the one to use at random at the last possible second.

[Oracle_Hunter]

Latest TFHA Theory

Spoiler

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Wanda betrayed Banhammer to Stanley.

Stanley found the Arkenhammer by accident when he stumbled into FAQ on a mission from King Saline IV. In FAQ he met Wanda, then a Predictamancer, who had always wanted to practice Crokamancy - a specialty that Banhammer would have had no use for.

Wanda became enthralled with Stanley's power, and Stanley with Wanda, and between the two of them, they hatched a plan to put Stanley in his Rightful Position and Wanda at his side.

First, Stanley would use the Arkenhammer to convince the Gobwins that he was the Chosen One, and that they should rebel against Saline. Later, after Stanley had consolidated power, he would launch a sneak attack on FAQ and capture Wanda for his own. Wanda, being Predictamancer for FAQ, told Jack to go to a different city when Stanley attacked (or otherwise distracted him), allowing for the city to be overtaken so quickly. After the attack, Stanley captured Wanda and Jack, taking them back to Gobwin Knob to aide his efforts, while leaving FAQ in ruins.

Why does this make sense?
1) A Predictamancer that can foresee random patrols should have been able to see Stanley's attack coming. This failure speaks of an inside job, and as Stanley does not have a Predictamancer on his staff, it seems likely that Wanda (the only other FAQ caster we know of aside from Jack) must have been one.
2) Why would FAQ pop a Croakamancer? A nonviolent side would have a dearth of corpses to Uncroak. This, combined with Wanda's facility with other magics (plus other points mentioned before) implies that she served as a different sort of caster for Banhammer - a role she was unlikely to be happy with.
3) Stanley could not have known about FAQ in advance unless he a) had already been there or b) someone had told him about it. Since nobody seemed to know about FAQ aside from Jillian (and she's never met Stanley) it would make sense for one of the two FAQers on his side to have told him at some point in the past. Since FAQers aside from Jillian don't seem to leave the country, Stanley would then have had to wander in on his own.