You probably already know this but look at the Gamblers Fallacy. That is all.:
I'm not sure about Gamblers Fallacy, but I know chance is never an argument. You can't say "This d6 rolled all numbers from 1 to 5, so this time it has to roll a 6." or something like that.
And apparently that's exactly what Fallacy is about.
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My extended collection of avatars:
Spoiler
Pony Tarquin by Dirtytabs
Killer Klown by Ceika
Stroop by Mr Gone
Day's over but can't post narration for while. Unless numbers off, no one got 4 votes, so executioner decides if around. (plans had 3 votes, gunnar/Caprice had 2, some had 1, No Lynch may have had more)
'Day begins, day begins, paranoia creeping in.
Wolf or village, who's with who? Lynching someone, what to do?
Many enter, many gone. Many wishing, something longed.
Counting, praying, yelling, shouting, some suspicious, on the outs.
'Accusations, accusations, spoken with some suspicions.
Mayor searches, information. Successor too, recruits taken.
Journals passed, here to there, telling truths of killings dared.
Writing, reading, telling, founding, stories pass, mouth to mouth.'
Storyteller sits on gates, singing verses. Watching town and goings-on. Mayor does find documents on Successor's actions, how comes to be. Child wanders still, searching for safety, solace. Information on who killed mother. Lurker watches Witch's house, warning passerbys, giving help if needed. Others wander as well, doing what they can to keep order in town. As sun sets, Storyteller continues with song before packing up.
'Hours pass, hours pass, no decision made at last.
He with guns, he with plans, those with silence on their hands.
Uproar made, nothing right. Sun will set, soon for night.
Hiding, guarding, killing, scouting, town exists with many doubts.'
Spoiler
No one was killed.
Two Clueless Newcomer remain in town. TBFProgrammer can choose a spot as Clueless Newcomer Day 15 Devmaar can choose a spot as Clueless Newcomer Night 15
For lasting so long, gunnar11 gains win
Publicly revealed wins:
Spoiler
Player Name
Wins
Zar Peter
3
TigerFang
2
Devmaar
2
bladescape
2
usourselves&we
1
Gray Mage
1
Ramsus
1
Grue Bait
1
planswalker
1
Matthias2207
1
Caprice
1
Eternis
1
Nightpenguin
1
Chromasia
1
gunnar11
1
Player List:
Spoiler
Living Roles:
Spoiler
##
Player Name
16
Eternis
18
planswalker
19
Gray Mage
20
Grue Bait
21
C'nor
22
Kalrany
25
TigerFang
26
Tom the Mime
32
Nightpenguin
33
Lex-Kat
36
gunnar11
39
Caprice
43
Chromasia
45
usourselves&we
49
Matthias2207
50
bladescape
--
Clueless Newcomers
29
Zar Peter
48
Penguinator
Night 14 begins
...and will end in 24 hours
Call for any onlookers to be Clueless Newcomers!
Due to popular demand (and lack of an opponent), there is now a Mayor role. Vote everyday for it! Candidate was elected Mayor today, but that role is flexible: anyone can take it, and who has it can change from day to day. What it does, find out for yourselves. Candidates for Mayor role should send in one title (bold in narrations) or topic they would like to learn more about.
*Eternis, Chromasia, and Matthias2207 must vote Day 15 or be AL'd*
Executioner
and Bladescape.
Sorry, was in the rainforest for 6 days and couldn't get on.
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Xykon's not Evil. He just get bored really easily. And he doesn't have constructive hobbies. Generation 4
The first time you see this in a signature, put it in your signature and add one. Degeneration 92
The first time you see this, copy it into your signature and subtract one.
Executioner
and Bladescape.
Sorry, was in the rainforest for 6 days and couldn't get on.
Psst! Night actions, not votes
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Empress Catherine by Dr. Bath!
Castaras made the PiratZarrrrr. Thank you very much!
Successor speaks with followers, sending Sniper out on one mission, Assassin on other. Spy told to meet with third party, get target there. Three split, go separate ways.
In house near edge of town, empty for while, Lazy person lies. Didn't go far from entering town, simply found first available house and stayed there. Didn't do much, went to sleep. Assassin creeps in, unnoticed as always, slits throat in sleep. Watches to confirm death and then leaves. Chromasia left dead in bed, red staining sheets.
Next, look into window. While later, Businessman sits talking to person on phone. "Yes, didn't I tell you? Job's been done, long since. Can I take a day off? Seems like now would be a good time..." Suddenly, bullet pierces window and man, phone falls to voice yelling through it, comes disconnected, long tone. Gray Mage lies back in seat, asleep if not for the red.
In another house, Busy man packs to leave. Many things packed up, tucked into suitcase as pulls coat around self and leaves house. Turns to lock door and hears voice from behind. "Oh, I don't think you'll be needing those things where you're going. In fact, I doubt you'll not need much at all. You see, hell doesn't really require much." As Eternis turns, stabbed and falls to ground, bleeding out and dead. "Who?"
Mathematician working late at night, muttering. "How can this be? It was ten, ten, yes. Now down to... one was it? one two. Two! It's two now. But who?" Continues off, spouting numbers and inconsistencies, trying to make them make sense.
Spoiler
Eternis, the Busy was killed. His role is not revealed. Gray Mage, the Businessman was killed. His role is not revealed. Chromasia, the Lazy was killed. His role is not revealed. Zar Peter and Penguinator assume roles. TBFProgrammer can choose a spot as Clueless Newcomer Today! Devmaar can choose a spot as Clueless Newcomer Night 15 Eternis, Gray Mage, Chromasia can choose spots as Clueless Newcomers Night 16
For lasting so long, planswalker gains win
Publicly revealed wins:
Spoiler
Player Name
Wins
Zar Peter
3
TigerFang
2
Devmaar
2
bladescape
2
planswalker
2
usourselves&we
1
Gray Mage
1
Ramsus
1
Grue Bait
1
Matthias2207
1
Caprice
1
Eternis
1
Nightpenguin
1
Chromasia
1
gunnar11
1
Player List:
Spoiler
Living Roles:
Spoiler
##
Player Name
18
planswalker
20
Grue Bait
21
C'nor
22
Kalrany
25
TigerFang
26
Tom the Mime
29
Zar Peter
32
Nightpenguin
33
Lex-Kat
36
gunnar11
39
Caprice
45
usourselves&we
48
Penguinator
49
Matthias2207
50
bladescape
Day 15 begins
...and will end in 48 hours
Call for any onlookers to be Clueless Newcomers!
Due to popular demand (and lack of an opponent), there is now a Mayor role. Vote everyday for it! Candidate was elected Mayor today, but that role is flexible: anyone can take it, and who has it can change from day to day. What it does, find out for yourselves. Candidates for Mayor role should send in one title (bold in narrations) or topic they would like to learn more about.
Consarn it! Not again!
also, laughing at my own post!
To finish, I'm not entirely sure whether there is an executioner role or not, as the role-rules specify original villagers, so if you'd be so good, count, please clarify that.
__________________
Xykon's not Evil. He just get bored really easily. And he doesn't have constructive hobbies. Generation 4
The first time you see this in a signature, put it in your signature and add one. Degeneration 92
The first time you see this, copy it into your signature and subtract one.
Given a note of time to be able to look things over, may we direct everyone to this post by gunnar:
Spoiler
Quote:
Originally Posted by gunnar11
I was in contact with TigerFang, until he died, then I got another Member:
Count Dingdong
One of you has died. QT will be locked shortly. More information will be provided in your respective QTs.
gunnar11
So, do you know the latest movements in the Mason network?
There seems to be a traitor, or so CountDingDong said.
You should be careful, the other Mason could be the traitor. Also: I don't know how many members there are, but up until now there are max. 4 members.
Who are you going to lynch next?
TigerFang
I thought it would be obvious that Mason 1 would be a dead giveaway to my real identity. xD Yes I am in contact with one other. Which means there are currently 3 masons in total.
Member IV
By the way: would it be possible to trade names?
That way we can help each other in game too.
Mason 1™
Hey, Feel free to share any suspicions/random analysis or just any thoughts/ideas you might have.
Are you in contact with any other mason? My guess would be that you aren't but it's better to check.
Member IV
hey there!
Count Dingdong
Here is the message space for Mason 1 and Member IV. Talk here about whatever masony stuff you wish.
Now at face value it is not all that bad, but reading it over again:
Quote:
Originally Posted by gunnar11
I was in contact with TigerFang, until he died, then I got another Member:
...
gunnar11
So, do you know the latest movements in the Mason network?
There seems to be a traitor, or so CountDingDong said.
You should be careful, the other Mason could be the traitor. Also: I don't know how many members there are, but up until now there are max. 4 members.
Who are you going to lynch next?
...
Member IV
By the way: would it be possible to trade names?
He seemed to be fishing for information and trying to divert guilt, perhaps he is the traitor he speaks of?
But we aren't certain at this time, what does everyone else think?
gunnar, if you don't mind our asking how is(are) your other correspondent(s)?
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Bigger picture:
To finish, I'm not entirely sure whether there is an executioner role or not, as the role-rules specify original villagers, so if you'd be so good, count, please clarify that.
Think I said this before but may have been when were gone. Original Executioner specifies Original Villager -> that role's gone. May be Executioner in Newcomer roles that could be here, in remaining roles, or dead. Or not. Don't know for sure.
What do know is last day w/ executioner's decision no one died. Could be many reasons for that.
Lex-Kat you've been doing little besides giving very short name-only votes since the night you assumed your role. Why is that?
I was thinking that exactly. Although there was one vote with something written in white.
Lex-Kat
Quote:
Originally Posted by usourselves&we
Given a note of time to be able to look things over, may we direct everyone to this post by gunnar:
Now at face value it is not all that bad, but reading it over again:
He seemed to be fishing for information and trying to divert guilt, perhaps he is the traitor he speaks of?
But we aren't certain at this time, what does everyone else think?
gunnar, if you don't mind our asking how is(are) your other correspondent(s)?
I wanted to trade names, is that so weird? Masons have to stand together.
I discovered I was actually quite stupid on that question, seeming how he was the only mason left xD
The other member: Some masons and circle members are connected with not one but 2 others, so I already warned TigerFang. If I was the traitor why would I tell him to watch out? I could just as easily have killed him without exposing myself...
I can't tell you who my other contact is, that is for him to decide.
Hmmm Lex-Kat, that's a nice explanation but nothing to work on. What did you read out of the rest of us?
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Avatar by the great Lord Herman. Many, many thanks!
Empress Catherine by Dr. Bath!
Castaras made the PiratZarrrrr. Thank you very much!
Squid Bones: They exist!
Spoiler
Last edited by Zar Peter : 11-20-2012 at 01:31 AM.
Gunnar11 really was one of the masons before I died... and I doubt that he is a traitor, though anything is possible. I'm going to go for Lex-Kat for now.
And for the record that is not the only reason why I am voting for Lex.
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Last edited by TigerFang : 11-19-2012 at 05:05 PM.
Gunnar11 really was one of the masons before I died... and I doubt that he is a traitor, though anything is possible.
I'm going to go for Lex-Kat for now.
She looked at Nighthunter, then nodded slowly. “I… understand,” she said at last. “I fear there are few trustworthy people in this town, so if you stick around I would hope that we could help each other, but I can also understand wanting to leave.”
She stood tall, and held out her hand. “My sister’s talent was in understanding events and people, and Kal considered you an ally. That consideration will be extended through the family so I will say this --either choice, know I will lend you my aid should you need it. Ask for Daring, or any of us Jasterfelds...”
Nighthunter stared a moment, then took the hand, shaking it once. As he did so, a whistling noise was heard nearby, and an arrow thudded to the ground next to the large man's foot. He nodded as if he had expected it, and grinned. "Tha'll be my replacement."
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Hmmm Lex-Kat, that's a nice explanation but nothing to work on. What did you read out of the rest of us?
Well, my first night I checked on NightPenguin, but got a *No Scry*.
The second night, I went for someone I felt would be safe... Chromasia. They turned out to not be a Villain. But since they are dead, that proves nothing.
So last night I checked on NightPenguin again. She's not a Villain either.
I'm the Hero of Justice, searching for the Villain. Which I was hoping to kill during the night. But, , I guess that's not going to happen.
Well, my first night I checked on NightPenguin, but got a *No Scry*.
The second night, I went for someone I felt would be safe... Chromasia. They turned out to not be a Villain. But since they are dead, that proves nothing.
So last night I checked on NightPenguin again. She's not a Villain either.
I'm the Hero of Justice, searching for the Villain. Which I was hoping to kill during the night. But, , I guess that's not going to happen.
So if I have this straight...
Night 10: Assumed role
Night 11: ???
Night 12: Me, no scry
Night 13: Chromasia, not Villain
Night 14: Me, not Villain
Wait, so is 'Hero of Justice' the name of your actual role or is it just a representative term? (I'm hoping for the former because it just sounds like a fun title to have if I die again xD)
And on a more relevant note, do you have any guarantee of accuracy for your 'scries' or is it possible that, like a fool, you can get bad readings?
we've seen a LOT of those, both true and utter bs.
The ratio's not as bad as you'd think.
The scrying claims I can recall:
Forum Explorer claimed Seer, was Devil. Only half-inaccurate.
Matthias claimed (was Fool)
Zar Peter claimed (pretty undeniably the original Seer)
Kalrany claimed (seemed legit)
Grue Bait claimed (was utter nonsense)
TBFProgrammer (was some sort of Detective, sounds like a scrying role)
Penguinator (I know I wasn't lying)
Lex-Kat (don't know)
As for Lex-Kat's role, it sounds a lot like the one I had. Has a scry, has to find someone. If it wasn't blatantly obvious, the one who I had to find is the one who killed me. (Yeah, I wasn't aware of that possibility) I wouldn't be surprised if Lex-Kat, assuming she's telling the truth, is killed tonight by this "villain," now that they know who she is.
Or, Lex-Kat could be my target, didn't miss a night, and is lying to cover for killing me night 11. It's a possibility. I'm not betting on it, but it could have happened.
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