Werewolf V: Werewolf DnD

[Atreyu the Masked LLama]

"They're still pointing at us."
"Its only one of them, besides we're safe this round. The fool makes some sense"
"So you're gonna follow him."
"Nope, gonna point at the werefox."
"WHAT?

*LLink points at Exachix while trying to run from an angry fairy*

[Captain "Fluffy"]

Hmm. To trust the Fool is, well, foolish. But...
*Squeak?*
*Sigh* I just hope he's right.

Captain "Fluffy" points at Joosbaux.

[Cult_of_the_Raven]

It's been said before, but I'll say it again. a 50% chance is better than a shot in the dark.

Raven points at joosbawx

[Joosbawx]

Joosbawx shakes his head as the fingers are raised in his direction and sighs at Gralamin's explaination.

"You're trusting in the Fool, and his ability to predict when his powers are going to ring true and when they'll ring falsely. You're trusting in a roll of the die and nothing more. I've said it before, and I will say it again now. I am not a wolf. Look at my voting record. Look at my actions. Draw your conclusions from them and not from a charted series of random coin-flips."

Shaking his head again Joosbawx goes quiet, cursing the gods under his breath.

((OOCly...think about it for just a moment, please. Either Deckmaster is running the absolutely worst game of werewolf ever, or Gralamin has simply been lucky. Hasn't anyone studied statistics? Take a coin right now and flip it six or eight times. You're likely to get results similiar to what Gralamin received. In all seriousness, how can I get lynched on the word of the Fool who's power only works, at best, 50% of the time...randomly? That is actually worse than randomly pulling names out of a hat and lynching them.

And, by the by, it's always a 50% chance, even when you're picking a name randomly. They're either a Werewolf or a Villager. That's 50% chance.))

[Jontom Xire]

And, by the by, it's always a 50% chance, even when you're picking a name randomly. They're either a Werewolf or a Villager. That's 50% chance.))

I know I'm dead, but I just HAD to say:

So if there are 8 villagers and 2 wolves and you pick a name randomly you have a 50% chance of getting a wolf??? If that is what you're saying, then go back to maths class. If it isn't, then perhaps you need to clarify.

[Ms_Elaneous]

Glares at Ink. "Your insensitivity annoys me." Ms E sighs a little and continues listening to the conversation.

"Well, I was for the Fool's advice last time, albeit it was wrong, andt his pattern is awfully convenient... I can't help but take this chance, only I pray that it is wise this once to follow the Fool." Ms E takes a deep breath and points an accusatory finger at Joosbawx.

[Exachix]

Exachix sighs at LLink, then looks at the fairy.

"Can you keep him under control?"

He sighs and points toLLink and his fairy

[Gralamin]

Joosbawx shakes his head as the fingers are raised in his direction and sighs at Gralamin's explaination.

"You're trusting in the Fool, and his ability to predict when his powers are going to ring true and when they'll ring falsely. You're trusting in a roll of the die and nothing more. I've said it before, and I will say it again now. I am not a wolf. Look at my voting record. Look at my actions. Draw your conclusions from them and not from a charted series of random coin-flips."

Shaking his head again Joosbawx goes quiet, cursing the gods under his breath.

((OOCly...think about it for just a moment, please. Either Deckmaster is running the absolutely worst game of werewolf ever, or Gralamin has simply been lucky. Hasn't anyone studied statistics? Take a coin right now and flip it six or eight times. You're likely to get results similiar to what Gralamin received. In all seriousness, how can I get lynched on the word of the Fool who's power only works, at best, 50% of the time...randomly? That is actually worse than randomly pulling names out of a hat and lynching them.

And, by the by, it's always a 50% chance, even when you're picking a name randomly. They're either a Werewolf or a Villager. That's 50% chance.))

(Ummmm NO.
It all depends on the number of people in the game. If theirs 8 villagers, and 2 wolves, you actually only have a 20% chance to get it right.
Though what you think what you meant was, if you grab that 20% chance of them being the wolf, the Fools only has a 50% of that 20% (or 10%) chance of being right.
Also Joos, you've been on peoples list for sometime. so I know that people suspect you of wolfish behavior, I'm just giving a bit more truth to the claims.

also may I mention that this is a non-standard game of werewolf? With all these variant roles, who is to say he didn't change how the fool works?

Just to note your logic above is sort of crazy. You compare the fool to a coin flip, and then say that he is statistically worse then 50%, and make everyone else 50%. That doesn't make sense.

Also may I mention that to get the results I did, in a patrren like that, the chances are very small?
Assuming a 50% chance to be Right:
1/2(DLD) * 1/2(LUCKY) * 1/2(KT) * 1/2 (ElJ) * 1/2 (Fullblader)
Simplifying a bit thats (1/2)^5 or 1/32 equivalent to 3.125%

Addinging you, thats 1/64 or 1.56%)

[King_of_GRiffins]

"I will not, for any reason, listen to any argument here based of probability, as in the end, it always boils down to hoping for the best of the odds. A coin flip will land on a side with equal chances as before, regardless of whichever side it has previously landed on."

"If I could get the attention of Exachix and LLink for one moment. Could you both, in a strait forward manner, answer the following; Why do you keep pointing to each other?"

[Gralamin]

Yes it will land on a side with an equal chance as before. However the chance that it lands in that specific pattern are way less.

[B-Man]

*sigh*

* B-Man points to himself.

((I'm really bored of this game and I don't want to die in an auto-lynch. Auto-lynches suck.))

[The Valiant Turtle]

This is interesting. If he had only gotten wolf or villager then it could be random chance. Since he actually got El J as the Druid, that makes his theory more plausible. I'm comfortable with it for now.

[Lord Iames Osari]

Iames nods. I believe Gralamin. He points at Joosbawx.

[Atreyu the Masked LLama]

(Sure.
1. Very rarely has my vote ever meant anything in the grand scheme of a round. So instead of going with the crowd, this game I have the luxury of pointing at someone else and since I voted against Exachix in the first round, it seemed like a fun running gag to continue.

2. I have spent the every other werewolf game with others relying on me, either as a wolf or a mason or a lover and in each game I have failed them. This game I have no one truly depending on me, I am a simple meat shield, so I am going to enjoy the opportunity to be silly.

3. If its a close vote then I'll look into who to vote as a wolf, but as long as the lynchee is decided already, then I shall enjoy myself. I hope others are amused as well.)

(For an IC answer)
"I'm sorry. For so long, he's always fought Ganon that he's used to the villian being the same person. So he seems to have decided that Exachix is a villian. He's also tried telling me that in the next game he'll get a talking boat or a mask that will let him turn into a Deku scrub. I'll get him in line. Don't worry."

[Exachix]

((I'm voting for him for much the same reason, fun =) ))

"He's pointing at me almost continuously! I hope you do get him in line."

[Weebl]

((Woohoo! Back but Not for long. I might be able to get access of my PC during the weekend but for now I'm on one in an internet cafe))

Man all the goo/bad stuff happens when im gone! Weebl/Bob points at Joosbawx but admires his accurate vote tallies

[Lord Fullbladder, Master of Goblins]

As a former Ranger who fell in with a good crowd but couldn't find any wolves, I say that I am rather glad I'm dead. This game is no getting confusing. (But hey, between Gramlamin, Silkenfist and I, we screened over half the village!)

[Joosbawx]

I know I'm dead, but I just HAD to say:

((Actually, JX, you didn't "have" to do anything. You chose to voice an opinion. This is called influencing the vote, and it is frowned upon. You've been culled from the game. Remain silent.

As for the statistical portion of todays program, I understand the perspective that Gralamin is representing. We're not quite talking about the same thing; though it is because I chose an out of context example. With reference specifically to your Fool scrying abilities (based on the assumption that Deckmaster did not change the way the Fool and Seer work for this game since it was not detailed in the first page in the signup thread as the rest of the new/renamed roles were) you have a 50/50 chance of succeeding each time you scry someone.

If your successes are in a pattern as you suggest (true, false, true, false...) then the results are no longer random. This basically turns the Fool into another Seer, which, regardless of the role I'm playing in the game, seems rather silly and/or unbalanced. That is where the "always 50/50" comment comes into play (referring to the results the Fool receives); though, admittedly, I misunderstood the comment and replied out of context. My mistake. I'm sorry.

So, as this whole bit is now beginning to bore even me, I shall let it rest without further ado. Just wanted to clearify my "crazy" reasoning.))

[Selrahc]

Have fun on easy street El J. The life of a druid must be taxing... with all that... um ... lack of dying. *sigh*

Points at Joosbawx

For much the same reasons as everybody else. Fairly suspicious, fools chance of being right... etc. Worth my jumping on the bandwagon, certainly.

[El Jaspero, the Pirate King]

A filthy, dirt-covered Druid scowls up from the completed grave. "Yeah, I'm living it up down here." He turns himself into a badger and crawls out, then turns back into his human form and lowers Fullbladder into the grave.

"Be at rest, guardian of Nature."

He starts shoveling dirt into the grave.

[Tharj TreeSmiter]

Well in the werewolf game where joosbawx and I were both wolves he never actually said he wasn't a wolf. He also never claimed to be a villager. So he was honest in that game (as far as I saw)... so I'm inclined to believe him, it's also hard to believe that the fool would be so regular of a pattern. As joosbawx said that would mean that he's just an intemitent seer and not a fool.

So I'll point at somebody else and regret it if joosbawx really is a wolf.

tharj points at Exachix

[Indurain]

"I'm not really willing to go on the words of the fool, but am basing this point purely on my guts. I don't have any logic to back this claim up. I'll state that now. I think this person has shown exemplary villager behaviour...which is partially why I'm so suspicious. And it does pain me to do this...especially on a day as special as this...BUT I MUST!"

Indurain points at LLink's fairy.

[Deckmaster]

Before I end the day, I have a few things to say.

First of all, I would like to ask Alarra if she would be so kind as to post who hasn't voted in the past 2 Days, if anyone.

Second of all, let it be known that I am lazy. Very lazy. Like, too lazy to even flip a coin. So I did give the Fool a pattern, but now that I know he's figured it out, I'm going to change it. Or maybe scrap it completely and actually flip a coin. Or maybe not change it and make him think I changed it. Ooh! Unpredictable!

Oh, and even though the day isn't over, voting is closed. So any votes after this don't count.

[Alarra]

(Only person not to vote in 2 days is Bearchase)

[Deckmaster]

Joosbawx hasn't sent me a death scene, so I'm going to write one myself. If he wants one better, he can send it to me.

As written by me:
Joosbawx is lynched. He transforms into a wolf. ((Sorry, just not feeling creative today)). Bearchase is lynched as well, but he is just a villager. Kyrian suddenly has a heart attack. He is a villager.

Joosbawx, a wolf, was lynched.
Bearchase, a villager, was auto-lynched.
Kyrian, a villager, quits the game.

Night 7 ends at 1 PM Monday. I would ask that anyone who knows the details behind why Kyrian quit not share it with anyone. He asked me to edit my last post for that reason. Thanks.

[churchofbanjo]

Church wakes up suddenly. "Wha? What happened? I point at... oh. Well, time for bed." With that, he runs back into his house, feeling terribly exposed in his PJs

[Weebl]

((by the way, i still cannot get online much. i will only get small chances when im in school))

Woo! another wolf bites the dust!

[Exachix]

Exachix smiles.

"Yay!"

he heads home.

[Alarra]

Alarra nods, "I knew it."
She then happily heads back home.

[Ms_Elaneous]

Ms E lightly touches Kyrian's dead body with her foot. "A heart attack? And, like, how old are you? Should've laid off the Krispy Kremes..." She shrugs and begins mumbling about proper nutrition. She stops for a moment and begins to mutter something about "Kira." (564 awesome points for those who get the reference.)

She then looks over the deceased form of Bearchase. "I have one word regarding the NPC's: Leashes."

Ms Elaneous raises up a cheer at the sight of another werewolf down. "Our fool did a good job this past evening! Let's go buy him a drink!" She scurries over to Krystal Tiger's former residence and returns with a clinking sack of coins, "On Krystal Tiger!"