"Double Bluff"

[Ellye]

Why is so many people (including Haley in the comics) calling the stone pillar with the gate inside it a "double bluff"? If that gate is real, this looks like a straightforward bluff.

It would be a double bluff if the gate was, indeed, in another pyramid.

http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/double_bluff

An action which is intended to be perceived as a bluff, but which is not.

[hamishspence]

There's an explanation in the main 895 thread:

This is a double bluff, not a single bluff.
They first bluff is the false bluff that the gate is not there, and the second is the gate being there.

Details:

Spoiler

Show

It was originally obvious to the observers (the OOTS) that the gate was in the pyramid. This contains no bluff.
When they reach the gate room, it says the gate is not there. This makes the evidence that the gate was in the pyramid into bluff.
The gate is actually in the pyramid, despite the sign. double bluff.

Simpler:
All evidence says the gate is in the pyramid, but once inside, it appears the entire pyramid is a bluff (#1).
In fact, the sign saying that the pyramid is a bluff is a bluff (#2), and the gate is within the pyramid.

[Ellye]

This is a double bluff, not a single bluff.
They first bluff is the false bluff that the gate is not there, and the second is the gate being there.

Unless that gate is false, the gate being there isn't a bluff, I think.


Well, I guess we can count the pyramid as a whole as a double bluff, though. That would do.

[Shale]

Single bluff: You tell a lie.

Double bluff: You tell the truth, and then claim it was a lie.

In this case, the initial truth is that the pyramid is so well-defended because the Gate is there. Girard never put up a "GATE HERE" sign so it's an implication rather than a statement, but it counts.

[Ellye]

Yeah, my question and my confusion were due to me believing that people (and Haley) were calling the stone, by itself, a double bluff.

But I see now that it makes sense to call the pyramid as a whole a double bluff, and that this is what Haley and Roy likely meant.

[Syncro]

Could be a triple bluff and just another illusion or a fake gate
I mean the blood empire is filled with rougish players so itd seem obvious to screw with them too

[Fish]

I find it convenient (for the triple bluff theory) that we cannot see inside the gate. We cannot see if the Snarl is there (which is what Girard might assume) or the world which Blackwing saw.

[Amarsir]

If the entire pyramid was built around protecting this center room, and then the gate wasn't there, that would be a (single) bluff. To point everyone there, and then say it's not there when it actually is? That's a double.

[Sylthia]

I think it's more a bluff or triple-bluff. A double bluff would be if the gate was in fact in another pyramid. A triple bluff is expecting it to be a double bluff.

Bluff: It's in another pyramid

Double-Bluff: It's in another pyramid (Expect people to think you're lying and waste time trying to find it in this pyramid.)

Triple-Bluff: It's in another pyramid (Expect people to think you are telling a double-bluff and wouldn't be so obvious to let them know it's somewhere else and think it is foolish for Girard to think he could trick you into wasting further time in this pyramid.)

[jere7my]

I think it's more a bluff or triple-bluff. A double bluff would be if the gate was in fact in another pyramid. A triple bluff is expecting it to be a double bluff.

Bluff: It's in another pyramid

Double-Bluff: It's in another pyramid (Expect people to think you're lying and waste time trying to find it in this pyramid.)

Triple-Bluff: It's in another pyramid (Expect people to think you are telling a double-bluff and wouldn't be so obvious to let them know it's somewhere else and think it is foolish for Girard to think he could trick you into wasting further time in this pyramid.)

If you have nothing in your hand but you convince your opponents that you have pocket aces, that's a bluff. If you have pocket aces, but you convince your opponents that you're bluffing and have nothing, that's a double bluff.

Girard has pocket aces, and convinced Nale that the entire pyramid was a bluff. That's a double bluff.

[Porthos]

If you have nothing in your hand but you convince your opponents that you have pocket aces, that's a bluff. If you have pocket aces, but you convince your opponents that you're bluffing and have nothing, that's a double bluff.

Girard has pocket aces, and convinced Nale that the entire pyramid was a bluff. That's a double bluff.

From wiki:

double bluff (plural double bluffs)

An action which is intended to be perceived as a bluff, but which is not.

So, pretty much what you said. Best explanation I've seen so far.

[The Giant]

The first bluff is not the text on the pyramid; it's the entire pyramid itself. The bluff is, "Hey, look, here's a pyramid filled with traps and illusions, don't you wonder what we're guarding with all this?"

The text on the pyramid, if taken in that context, is not a bluff—it's the "truth" that gets revealed when the bluff has been exposed. In the same way as the message that Girard recorded in the desert was not a bluff; the fake coordinates were. The message was just the reveal that the fake coordinates had been a bluff.

The default assumption is that if you go through a dungeon purporting to guard an artifact, that artifact will be there. When it's not there, then the builder of that dungeon "bluffed" you into exploring it. And when, after making you think you got bluffed in that manner, it turns out it really IS there, then that's a double bluff.

The message is critical because without the message, Nale would be far less likely to think that the Gate simply wasn't there at all. He would just think he hadn't found the right room yet. The main reason he accepts the words on the block is that it's the exact same set-up as the desert message: Here's a bluff, you fell for it, sucks to be you. It relies on the assumption of the target that Girard is likely to pull such a trick, which is a good assumption after you've seen him pull the exact same trick in the desert.

[Vinsfeld]

In short, it's like he's bluffing about a bluff. In that case he's lying about a lie (the lie being the text about the gate)


Ninja'd by the Giant

[Vaylon]

The so-called double bluff doesn't make any sense to me. Why, when presented with words inscribed on a big pillar from an illusionist, would you simply accept what it said at face value? More importantly, the labor required in getting through all the traps is more likely to make people emotionally invested in believing that something is there -- despite the message that there isn't -- due to the sunk cost fallacy.

In other words, if you've made it that far into the dungeon, you have very little to lose by disregarding what's inscribed on the pillar and continuing your search.

[Siosilvar]

The so-called double bluff doesn't make any sense to me. Why, when presented with words inscribed on a big pillar from an illusionist, would you simply accept what it said at face value? More importantly, the labor required in getting through all the traps is more likely to make people emotionally invested in believing that something is there -- despite the message that there isn't -- due to the sunk cost fallacy.

He did it before, why wouldn't he do it again?

[Porthos]

The so-called double bluff doesn't make any sense to me. Why, when presented with words inscribed on a big pillar from an illusionist, would you simply accept what it said at face value? More importantly, the labor required in getting through all the traps is more likely to make people emotionally invested in believing that something is there -- despite the message that there isn't -- due to the sunk cost fallacy.

In other words, if you've made it that far into the dungeon, you have very little to lose by disregarding what's inscribed on the pillar and continuing your search.

What does Girard have to lose by attempting a double bluff?

If he does nothing, there is a giant gate sitting out in the open. (0% success rate at hiding)

If he encases it in a stone he runs the risk of someone hacking at it in frustration. (X% success rate at hiding)

By making a double bluff he gets Y percentage of people to buy the bluff and leave (And in so doing hope that Y is larger than X). He may hope for 100% success rate. He may only expect a 25% success rate. But even the latter is better than a 0% success rate at hiding it.

[orrion]

The so-called double bluff doesn't make any sense to me. Why, when presented with words inscribed on a big pillar from an illusionist, would you simply accept what it said at face value? More importantly, the labor required in getting through all the traps is more likely to make people emotionally invested in believing that something is there -- despite the message that there isn't -- due to the sunk cost fallacy.

In other words, if you've made it that far into the dungeon, you have very little to lose by disregarding what's inscribed on the pillar and continuing your search.

Well, Nale didn't accept it at face value right away. He had his casters cast Divinations on it, remember?

Roy and Haley are a bit more inclined to think beyond that because they were present when Girard pulled the same trick.

Xykon and Redcloak wouldn't fall for it either because they have the true coordinates of the Gates (something neither the Linear Guild or the Order has at this point).

Also, it could be that Nale is going to come back in the short term with a "Gotcha, morons. Everyone's been spewing that "let the heroes do it for you" stuff that I totally had to get in on it."

[Bird]

The so-called double bluff doesn't make any sense to me. Why, when presented with words inscribed on a big pillar from an illusionist, would you simply accept what it said at face value? More importantly, the labor required in getting through all the traps is more likely to make people emotionally invested in believing that something is there -- despite the message that there isn't -- due to the sunk cost fallacy.

In other words, if you've made it that far into the dungeon, you have very little to lose by disregarding what's inscribed on the pillar and continuing your search.

Agreed about the sunk cost fallacy. Girard probably knew that this bluff was unlikely to work. However, why not throw it in there anyway? If it would convince even 10% of the folks who might potentially get to it, it'd be worth having. Once you erect the stone it costs nothing further to maintain, and there's something nice about a trick which involve no magic, unlike many of the pyramid defenses.

And from Nale's perspective -- well, Nale is rash, and a doofus, and quick to panic, and he falls into that 10%. So is Belkar, for that matter. But it didn't fool Roy, who has a decent wisdom. Not for a moment. It didn't fool Haley. I don't think it fooled Malack, either. So: yeah, it's not the highest percentage bluff, but that doesn't make it useless.

Edit: ninja'd

[Vaylon]

He did it before, why wouldn't he do it again?

There are a couple reasons I disagree with this reasoning.

1. There's a difference between me falsely telling someone I've buried a treasure in the desert, which is easy to do and costs me nothing, and me building an expensive deathtrap guarded by my family that contains nothing.

2. One pyramid is easier to search than an entire desert.

3. As I said before, people who make it that far into the pyramid will be emotionally invested in believing that something is in the pyramid due to the sunk cost fallacy (i.e., "We've sacrificed so much -- there has to be something here!").

4. He's an illusionist. Why take the stone pillar at face value?

[Porthos]

There are a couple reasons I disagree with this reasoning.

1. There's a difference between me falsely telling someone I've buried a treasure in the desert, which is easy to do and costs me nothing, and me building an expensive deathtrap guarded by my family that contains nothing.

2. One pyramid is easier to search than an entire desert.

3. As I said before, people who make it that far into the pyramid will be emotionally invested in believing that something is in the pyramid due to the sunk cost fallacy (i.e., "We've sacrificed so much -- there has to be something here!").

4. He's an illusionist. Why take the stone pillar at face value?

Again, what does he lose by the attempt?

[Vaylon]

What does Girard have to lose by attempting a double bluff?

Like Haley says in this comic, "The message would actually increase the chances of someone finding the gate."

[Jay R]

In short, it's like he's bluffing about a bluff. In that case he's lying about a lie (the lie being the text about the gate)

Nale just doesn't trust Girard enough to believe that he lied.

[Bulldog Psion]

Meh, I just set it down to a verbal slip on Haley's part and left it at that. Our mouths don't always fire off finely crafted verbal perfection, after all.

[Bird]

4. He's an illusionist. Why take the stone pillar at face value?

If you've got all the time in the world, and you're thinking clearly there's no reason to. But: imagine your party is wounded, and disoriented/confused by whatever the Draketooths have thrown at you, and that there are still some defenders running down the hall ready to get you. You might just panic and retreat in a fit of exasperation, giving the Draketooths time to rejigger their defenses.

[Vinsfeld]

Nale just doesn't trust Girard enough to believe that he lied.

Nice catch, there. Made me laugh hard.

[Porthos]

Like Haley says in this comic, "The message would actually increase the chances of someone finding the gate."

But Haley could be wrong. She isn't omniscient after all.

Again:
X percent of people would be fooled by a giant block with no writing.
Y percent of people would be fooled by a taunting message on a block.

Is X > Y? Unknowable. Completely and utterly unknowable. Girard is taking a calculated risk that people attempt to discover what is in the rock and fail (like Nale did) or leave completely.

Remember, it was Roy's knowledge of architecture, and not trying to figure out if Girard was lying or not, which sealed the deal.

Either way both X and Y are > 0. Sooner or later you just gots to go with what brought you to the dance. With Girard, that is trickery and misdirection. Thus he chose to go for Y. Which is perfectly in character for him.

After all, Girard isn't omniscient when it comes to what motivates people, either.

[rodneyAnonymous]

"Double bluffs work best when your target is so prepared for you to be lying that they never think to question your admission that you're lying."

Nale did question the admission, but he assumed magic would give him an accurate answer, and accepted the lie.

[Vaylon]

Girard is taking a calculated risk that people attempt to discover what is in the rock and fail (like Nale did) or leave completely.

That isn't smart, nor is it consistent with what an epic-level Illusionist would do. Refer back to Haley's explanation of shell games.

Why have something in the rock at all? Why not, say, have the gate under the floor instead of in the rock?

[Porthos]

Nale did question the admission, but he assumed magic would give him an accurate answer, and accepted the lie.

This is the important part. When Nale was confronted with the message the very first thing he did was demand everyone attempt to see if it was real or not.

The only thing he didn't think of doing was hitting it with a stick.

Does that show he is unimaginative and/or over reliant on magic? Sure.

But that just means Nale falls in the Y% of people who will either accept the message at face value or attempt to figure out what is in the rock and fail.

[Warren Dew]

Like Haley says in this comic, "The message would actually increase the chances of someone finding the gate."

She was talking about the message in the desert, not the message on the stone.

The message on the stone can only increase the chances of someone finding the gate if that someone is wandering through the pyramid looking for the gate, but somehow doesn't suspect that it might be inside this huge, heavily guarded block of stone in the exact center of the pyramid. Such people are likely a vanishingly small fraction of the people who make it to the gate room.