Wizards' Guild IC

[kgato503]

@ Alandra: As I said at the time, I didn't want my info poke at flat_footed to be lethal (I was just trying to get them to talk more, so that we had more to work with). Also, flat_footed's (eventual) response seemed reasonable, and left me with a somewhat townie vibe from them (they reminded the Wizards to keep note of how the infiltrators were behaving, and they did a reasonable analysis of gac3). I could not say as much for Da'Shain (very low participation gave me very little to work with). And, thus, I changed my vote.

@Alexei: You have not said much, care to speak up?

@ Unavenger: Am I supposed to notice that you didn't say that Day 3 started?

[JeenLeen]

The kill-them-all didn't kill anyone last night. Anyone want to claim Abjurer and say who they warded?
Or maybe the wolves do have a bard and they wanted to stop Elenna? I've been wondering whether it was Da'Shain or wolves who blocked flyinglemur night 1 (assuming they told the truth). Da'Shain's inactivity makes it likely it was a bard.
Thus, guessing the bard exists and blocked flyinglemur Night 1 and kill-them-all Night 2.

Okay, so that claim: I'm the Survivor

"??? You picked a bad day to visit the wizards' tower, but you have more than a few tricks up your sleeves. Let's hope you can survive, one way or another. You will be told your powers when you are granted this role, and your role will be revealed on death (unless you are disintegrated)."

Basically I have a few one-shot powers: I can survive one lynch and one night-kill, I have one role-scry, and one kill. Haven't used any of it yet. And obviously my goal is to survive the game.

My guess is BoP is probably telling the truth, since the wolves don't have any way of knowing I'm neutral. Unless they got lucky with the Spellthief, I guess... but also nobody has counter-claimed BoP yet.
(Incidentally, if anyone is the actual Seer, please tell us so we can murder BoP and catch ourselves a wolf.)

That power sounds pretty doubtful, but there seem to be a lot of kill powers or ways to imitate kill powers bouncing around, so maybe it is reasonable to be able to survive a night-kill. But survive a lynch, too? That could easily be too powerful should you join with the wolves.

Thus, Elenna. If you are neutral as you claim, I think you'd likely side with the wolves instead of town. If you are lying and are really the kill-them-all (which is what I think), we probably want you dead.

My vote today is probably either for you or BoP. Most likely scenarios: the wolves either tried to Disintegrate BoP as Diviner and got redirected, or BoP is really a wolf. Unless I have more evidence towards the latter, I'm going with targeting Elenna.

Nearly everything in this game has come as a surprise to me. I feel like I have no clue whatsoever about what is going on, so I'm just going to ask a lot of questions.

@JeenLeen: You never moved your vote away from flyinglemur, if I read this correctly. Why not?

@Unavenger: What happens if Alexei doesn't turn up again? I don't think that he posted since day 1.

Mostly it was so late in the previous Day that I didn't think there was much point in moving it to Elenna or BoP. I was pretty sure Elenna was the kill-them-all and I didn't trust BoP's reveal. But neither had many votes on them by the time I was voting, so changing my vote wouldn't have changed things.

I also didn't 100% trust flyinglemur's claim, so didn't feel guilty if my vote staying on him somehow swung things back to his dying.

RE: inactives. Da'Shain also seemed pretty inactive, maybe as inactive.
Since there's no reserve players to take over an inactive role, leaving it inactive is probably safest for the Town. They are still a body the wolves have to get through. And maybe we've got 1 inactive townie (Da'Shain) and 1 inactive wolf (alexei) and it balances out?

BoP: any scry results you wanna share?

- - - Updated - - -

Also, does anyone have any outside confirmation for BoP and Elenna?
It's possible they are wolves trying to keep each other alive, or a wolf (BoP) with an allied neutral (Elenna).

The fact that no wolves have died despite a declared seer -- and thus presumably some sort of Town network -- seems odd.

If there are 4 wolves, it's possible there's no diviner and thus BoP just got lucky, hence no counterclaim. Or the real diviner feared seeming wolfish if countering and's been hiding.

[BasketOfPuppies]

I originally voted for F_F to get them to talk; they were really quiet and that only helps wolves. I moved to Da’Shain hoping that the same thing would happen.

I scried Alexei as a Wizard last night.

JeenLeen I don’t like that you’re still trying to figure out a way to kill me when I’m pretty confirmed as town. I outed Elenna (btw @Elenna: I’m cool with letting you win with town; the more victors the merrier) and claimed a role very easily counterclaimed with no repercussions. Honestly I’m surprised that a wolf didn’t claim Diviner hoping to get me lynched first. Although with me also giving the result of my scry that would’ve been hard to swing.

[Unavenger]

@Unavenger: What happens if Alexei doesn't turn up again? I don't think that he posted since day 1.

Then nothing. I suspect, at this stage in the game, it doesn't matter much.

@ Unavenger: Am I supposed to notice that you didn't say that Day 3 started?

No, you're not. But I suspect that Day 4 won't.

[JeenLeen]

JeenLeen I don’t like that you’re still trying to figure out a way to kill me when I’m pretty confirmed as town. I outed Elenna (btw @Elenna: I’m cool with letting you win with town; the more victors the merrier) and claimed a role very easily counterclaimed with no repercussions. Honestly I’m surprised that a wolf didn’t claim Diviner hoping to get me lynched first. Although with me also giving the result of my scry that would’ve been hard to swing.

Good points.
Also, looking at the numbers, I reckon the only chance for Town to win is if I assume you are telling the truth. I'm still not 100% convinced, but... if you're a wolf, you're doing great and we're doomed. So let's assume you're Town.

I'm the Evoker. I did in The Outsider as... well, mostly not wanting to waste my power, and he seemed decent odds at wolf. For gac3, although I was pretty sure he was Town early in the game, by the time Night came around I had been persuaded otherwise. I regret not networking more.

Assuming Libro was a town and not the Transmuter redirecting a disintegrate on BoP... I'm guessing Alandra is a wolf who is posing as town by giving a lot of helpful analysis. (Though I reckon someone could say the same of me. WIFOM and all.)

I'm still not convinced Elenna isn't playing you, though, but I'll change my vote to Alandra. I'm guessing the bard voided her last night (since no "precise attack" kill), so let's hope they continue doing that.

Town: let's back BoP. Their honesty is our only hope.

[AvatarVecna]

Elenna is claiming my role, and basically everybody in the game should be well aware of it. I've been claiming the "bag of tricks" role privately for days now. We all know you're the neutral who wants everybody dead.

[flyinglemur]

I'll agree with that logic. Elenna it is.

[Elenna]

So I could make a whole post here about how it doesn't make sense for people to believe AV over me, and how their claiming first doesn't really mean anything about the chance of their truthfulness, and cognitive biases towards the claim you hear first... but screw it, let's go for a different route for a change.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

Yes, I'm the Assassin, and I'm here to kill you all!!!!

...

Okay, now that I'm done channeling Xihirli...

"So why shouldn't we kill you then?" is what I'm sure everyone's thinking. But the thing is, yes, I want to kill everyone, but that means I don't have any particular preference for who I kill on any given night.

So this is my offer: Don't lynch me today, and I'll give whichever side has lynch control the choice on who I aim for tonight. Given how close the town and wolf numbers are right now, an extra night-kill could really change matters.

Right now I think it's town that barely has control of the lynch, unless both the neutrals who aren't me have sided with the wolves or unless we started with 7 town and 4 wolves (seems unlikely). So I can basically kill another wolf for you, assuming the network that presumably exists has found one, which will make your job much easier.
Not sure how you want to do this. I'd be down to just take votes for the assassin-kill in this thread (either in some other colour than red, or just as people saying "Elenna, please kill X"). That would also cover the case where wolves and wolf-aligned neutrals currently make up the majority.

Putting my vote on *flips coin* Alandra for now for self-preservation purposes.

[Alandra]

Please don't kill me, I'm the Abjurer; I don't think that outing myself can do any harm at this point, considering we know almost all roles at this point anyway.

If BasketOfPuppies is a wolf, then the town is dead either way.

Since Alexei is probably inactive and the Evoker definitely isn't, I am going to assume that we are four townies.

I believe AvatarVecna that they are the last neutral, since they came across as trying to help either side from the start.

So ... town are BasketOfPuppies, Alexei (unless the transmuter is responsible for that, in which case they will hopefully tell us), I, possibly JeenLeen.

Neutral are probably flyinglemur (even though that is not completely secure since neutral roles do not neccessarily have a reason to conterclaim), AvatarVecna and Elenna.

I guess right now Elenna really is as dangerous to us as the wolfs and the priority is to not kill a townie and really not kill the Evoker, so I don't want to vote for JeenLeen until I am sure whether or not I believe their outing.



-------------------Update----------------------------

Okay, I've changed my mind - let's try to kill a wolf. Jeen Leen.

[JeenLeen]

I believe both AvatarVecna and Elenna. I also believe flyinglemur now. Thus, a 4 neutral game.
Oh, and, yeah: sorry BoP. I fully believe you are the diviner now.

But I'm not sure if we should lynch Elenna or not.
Can someone crunch some numbers, on both if there are 3 wolves or 4 wolves. No wolves have died yet. Do we need a wolf to die at Elenna's hand in order to win, or can we still win without her help?
And doesn't Elenna need to kill wolves? I'd think we're getting dangerously close to the "wolves win" town-wolf distribution. She'd lose if too many town die too quickly, right?

Of course, my aim should be better now that I'm openly the Evoker.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh, and I heard someone claimed Abjurer a while back and, for some reasons, I don't think that was Alandra. Of course either one could be lying, but I'm still keeping my vote on Alandra for now.

- - - Updated - - -

Shifting vote to Elenna for self-preservation.

[flyinglemur]

Switching my vote to Alandra

[AvatarVecna]

Alandra we've already got an abjurer claimant, but...let's make a deal. My first night, I used my version of the Evoker power to try and murder somebody, to speed up the rate at which the game ended (since my own survival is my only real victory condition). But see...my kill was blocked. The person I tried to murder was still alive the next morning. Now, I talked to flyinglemur, and I didn't receive a "you've been voided" message the way they did N1, and prior to their death, I talked to gac3 and they confirmed they targeted me the first night for copying, not anybody else (and it failed anyway, since mine is one of the roles they couldn't copy). That leaves just the real abjurer. So here's my question to prove your role: who did you bane N1?

[kgato503]

So, we have someone who has openly stated they want to see us all dead, regardless of side (well, maybe not the neutrals), and has the power to back this up, and may possibly team up temporarily with the wolves and give them another night kill...And they aren't leading in votes?

Yeah...voting for Elenna. While we need a wolf death, we do not need another night kill being aimed our way (we are few enough as is ).

Vote Tally So Far (I think this is accurate):

Alandra*: Elenna, flyinglemur, AvatarVecna,
Elenna: JeenLeen, kgato503
JeenLeen: BasketOfPuppies, Alandra

[Elenna]

This is mostly just out of curiosity, but:

Elenna, care to respond to the claim on you? The details as given make you out to be almost as big a threat to the Town as the wolves.

That was at the end of day 2, after BoP's claim. Not sure why JeenLeen was apparently sure I was the assassin and not the "just need to survive" neutral?

[AvatarVecna]

In case I wasn't being clear, Alandra, answering the question correctly is a requirement of getting my vote off you; otherwise, I can only assume your claim is the false one. You can only play things so close to the chest for so long. The game is ending soon, one way or another. Get on board, or be left behind.

- - - Updated - - -

@kgato503 Care to make a role claim?

[BasketOfPuppies]

I'll go with my fellow townies on Alandra.

[JeenLeen]

BoP, did you actually scry Alandra?
I'm suspicious of her, too, but I'd like to hear her answer to AvatarVecna's question before changing my vote back to her. (I know she's slated to die now regardless of my vote at the moment, but it could change if the non-voters jump in. I think there's about 1 hour of this Day left.)

That was at the end of day 2, after BoP's claim. Not sure why JeenLeen was apparently sure I was the assassin and not the "just need to survive" neutral?

I do have a good reason, but I don't think sharing it would help anything (besides possibly get votes off me, and I'm okay enough right now on that front). Though I'll admit I wasn't as confident as I thought and I was hoping to poke you into stating more that would either 1) reveal you as the kill-them-all or 2) discredit BoP if he was indeed a wolf. Or maybe flyinglemur had been lying, and something you say would bring that to light.

But, as stated before, I believe BoP's claim now. And flyinglemur's. And, obviously, yours as assassin.

[Unavenger]

The moment you execute the abjurer, a feeling of dread sets in...

Alandra died today, they were the abjurer.

ENDGAME

(Reasoning: Bard can block assassin ad infinitum; infiltrators control the vote. Factotum can, at best, roleblock one wolf, once, and has no good reason to do that).

BasketOfPuppies died during the endgame; they were the diviner.
Alexei died during the endgame; they were the necromancer.
Elenna died during the endgame; she was the assassin.
Libro's ashes were analysed. He was the evoker.

AvatarVecna (factotum), flyinglemur (savant), flat_footed (bard), kgato503 (hexblade), Caerulea (Spellthief) and JeenLeen (Sorcerer) won the game.

This one belonged to the infiltrators all game. The necromancer, possibly the most reliable power role, was AFK most of the game. The enchanter was too. The evoker killed the Sword of the Arcane Order (just before he could potentially have won on the spot) and the Illusionist. Town mislynched the conjurer N1. The abjurer never got a single hit, nor did the factotum copying the abjurer. The illusionist got one total miss and one scry just before being fried by the evoker. By contrast, the infiltrators had to deal with their spellthief never getting targeted, no hexblade hits, and a kill that just happened to be pointless N1.

(I'm aware that the game can, technically, continue if AvatarVecna, and exactly AvatarVecna, chooses to use enchantment, and exactly enchantment, on the infiltrator doing the kill, or on the bard, or if the infiltrators try to kill the assassin (who is NKI) and suddenly all the neutrals gang up on the wolves for no reason, and Alexei comes back from AFK. I'm also aware that the neutrals have no good reason to do any of that and I'm not indulging you another night and maybe another day just for a foregone conclusion.)

[JeenLeen]

So the assassin really was immune to a Night Kill? Could they have survived one lynch as well, as claimed?

Also, was it possible that The Outsider/paladin could have killed me (sorcerer) Night 1 if that gang-up hadn't happened?
If they did a duel during the Day, did they automatically win?

---

I think flat_footed almost getting lynched Day 2 was the biggest nervous moment for us wolves. AvatarVecna proposing an alliance really sealed the win. And two inactive townies plus the randomly unassigned role being town gave us a strong advantage.

When I hit Libro with Distintegrate, I figured Alandra was the Evoker and he the Abjurer or Transmuter.

To help me survive future games: I'll think I'm going to play this "helpful" regardless of if I'm wolf or town. I like this as a fun distraction, and it's less fun if I'm not posting.

[Unavenger]

So the assassin really was immune to a Night Kill? Could they have survived one lynch as well, as claimed?

Also, was it possible that The Outsider/paladin could have killed me (sorcerer) Night 1 if that gang-up hadn't happened?
If they did a duel during the Day, did they automatically win?

---

I think flat_footed almost getting lynched Day 2 was the biggest nervous moment for us wolves. AvatarVecna proposing an alliance really sealed the win. And two inactive townies plus the randomly unassigned role being town gave us a strong advantage.

When I hit Libro with Distintegrate, I figured Alandra was the Evoker and he the Abjurer or Transmuter.

To help me survive future games: I'll think I'm going to play this "helpful" regardless of if I'm wolf or town. I like this as a fun distraction, and it's less fun if I'm not posting.

Assassin was NKI every round, but couldn't survive a lynch. The fact that I mentioned my familiarity was with Town of Salem in the previous game was a bit of a clue, I'll admit: transmuter, necromancer and hexblade are copied straight from there, so it was no surprise that assassin and savant were copies of serial killer and investigator (except for the latter's new-found neutral alignment).

Duel meant that the next day, the SotAO and their target (which in this case was Elenna) were the only valid lynch targets - no-one could vote for anyone else, or vote no lynch.

[Alandra]

Okay, nothing in this game happened in any way that I expected (as I think I mentioned several times now )

Congratulations to the wolves, you really managed to fool me.

(I protected kgato503 on the first night and BasketOfPuppies on the second night.)

@BaketOfPuppies: Why did you lynch me? I specifically asked you if had any insights on JeenLeen and shifted my vote to him after you told me you had absolute proof that JeenLeen was a wolf.

Why would you kill someone who has a wagon on them that was started by a wolf and is voting for a wolf when you know that the wolves only need one more lynched villager to win? Even if someone was already claiming my role there was a 50:50 chance that I was a villager.

(I did not even see AvatarVecnas claim that they knew who I protected on the first night until after the deadline. Even though it wouldn't have helped me anyway if they were allied with the wolves.)

[flat_footed]

Okay, nothing in this game happened in any way that I expected (as I think I mentioned several times now )

Congratulations to the wolves, you really managed to fool me.

(I protected kgato503 on the first night and BasketOfPuppies on the second night.)

@BaketOfPuppies: Why did you lynch me? I specifically asked you if had any insights on JeenLeen and shifted my vote to him after you told me you had absolute proof that JeenLeen was a wolf.

Why would you kill someone who has a wagon on them that was started by a wolf and is voting for a wolf when you know that the wolves only need one more lynched villager to win? Even if someone was already claiming my role there was a 50:50 chance that I was a villager.

(I did not even see AvatarVecnas claim that they knew who I protected on the first night until after the deadline. Even though it wouldn't have helped me anyway if they were allied with the wolves.)

That was probably my fault.

I had claimed Abjurer privately to AV, BoP and flyinglemur Day 2 to save myself.

[Unavenger]

Oh, by the way, AvatarVecna's trouser temperature was pretty high that entire game. They had no nightkill, no transmuter power, they didn't kill or attempt to kill anyone at any point, and they were in communication with almost everyone, trying to angle everyone against each other.

[JeenLeen]

If the game continued, our plan was indeed to void Elenna and pick off the town. Try to recruit flyinglemur into the wolf/AvatarVecna alliance if needed.

Oh, by the way, AvatarVecna's trouser temperature was pretty high that entire game. They had no nightkill, no transmuter power, they didn't kill or attempt to kill anyone at any point, and they were in communication with almost everyone, trying to angle everyone against each other.

Well, she told me she tried to kill Alandra the final night. Just she thought Alandra was the Evoker, so her kill-attempt (using Illusionist power: copy Alandra, target Alandra) wound up baning instead of killing.

Was that also a misdirection, AvatarVecna?

[flyinglemur]

Dang, that's like my least expected outcome. Of all the people to be secretly wolves, I really didn't think it was flat-footed. Good trick on that. Well, I guess I succeeded in ending the game faster then I thought I could, albeit by accident. Go neutrals.

[AvatarVecna]

(Reasoning: Bard can block assassin ad infinitum; infiltrators control the vote. Factotum can, at best, roleblock one wolf, once, and has no good reason to do that).

I was probably gonna abjure Elenna actually. But I guess it doesn't matter now.

Okay, nothing in this game happened in any way that I expected (as I think I mentioned several times now )

Well, she told me she tried to kill Alandra the final night. Just she thought Alandra was the Evoker, so her kill-attempt (using Illusionist power: copy Alandra, target Alandra) wound up baning instead of killing.

Was that also a misdirection, AvatarVecna?

That's what I tried to do. The part in the endgame post about the factotum copying the abjurer is exactly what happened there.

- - - Updated - - -

My actual actions:

N1 I watched myself. Coming out of N1, I claimed to Caerulea that I scried her, that my scry was only indicating that she wasn't the person who wanted me dead. That person didn't exist, and when her response was along the lines of "so your scry is only concerned with whether the target's a threat to you personally" I knew she was a wolf but couldn't prove it.

N2 I copied Alandra, targeting Alandra. I figured they were the Evoker and was trying to kill them. Alas.

[BasketOfPuppies]

@Alandra: the neutrals and FF played me like a fiddle.

[AvatarVecna]

@Alandra: the neutrals and FF played me like a fiddle.

The endgame post kinda implies we were all in cahoots and conspiring to do so, but we weren't really trusted all that much. I was just kinda playing everyone and hadn't even really picked a side yet. I was maybe considering trying to angle for for a solo-win but that was a longshot. Certainly if town had gotten its **** together I would've pivoted hard, but I guess networking with the uncounterclaimed seer is too hard for some people.

[flat_footed]

The endgame post kinda implies we were all in cahoots and conspiring to do so, but we weren't really trusted all that much. I was just kinda playing everyone and hadn't even really picked a side yet. I was maybe considering trying to angle for for a solo-win but that was a longshot. Certainly if town had gotten its **** together I would've pivoted hard, but I guess networking with the uncounterclaimed seer is too hard for some people.

Yeah, a more involved town would have made things much more difficult. I took a gamble and claimed a role that would be believable for not wanting to publicly claim. Once the votes started dropping off of me, kgato was able to safely drop theirs as well and not stand out.

Wolf QT. You guys had me scrambling Day 2!

[Caerulea]

@AvatarVecna, why would that imply I'm a wolf?

Also, this game was fun. Being a wolf is interesting.

AND: JeenLeen always seems town, but never is.