This might be a good time for the villager power roles to get in touch with me and see if we can get a network started. Yes, it's a risk, but I think it's worth it.
OK, let's look at the pros and cons of every good power role contacting happy:
Pros (If happy is indeed the fool):
- Mason network expands to include the seer and lovers
- Seer has proxies that are guaranteed to be good.
Cons (If happpy is actually a wolf)
- We lose the real seer + fool + masons + lovers for the gain of 2 wolves, one of which is probably the beast if they're willing to take such a gambit.
- Even if happy is the fool, seer using any guaranteed good proxy would result in the death of said proxy thevery next night.
- Even if happy is the fool, all it takes is one inactive power role and a wolf pretender and we'd lose all our power roles.
If I were a power role, I certainly wouldn't be contacting happy now especially considering what just happened to our baner who was foolish enough to give his role to not 1 but 2 people when there was absolutely no need.
__________________
Spoiler
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLaughingMan
He's Fleeing Coward. The man could be a cookie-baking, cancer-stricken orphan kitten and still look like a reasonable suspect.
As much as I hate to interupt this discussion, your narrator has a question.
Is there any one willing to make trophies for this game? I would do it myself, but I have little artistic ability on a computer. Please send me a pm if you are willing to help me out with tropheys.
Personally, I think that it is a very good chance that both Murska /and/ Happy are wolves. Happy furthered this with her 'all power roles should send pms to me asap' bit.
For now, though, I'll jump on the Murska bandwagon.
__________________
"You may have noticed that I'm not all there myself..." --the Cheshire Cat (Alice in Wonderland, the disney movie)
Well, if I survive the night, there is chance I'm also a wolf!
Lets assume for a second that she is not going night killed during the night, there are three possibilities.
She is the seer and the wolves choose to either ignore her or scry her during the night, since some of us are planning to lynch her anyway due the paranoid assumption that we are somehow sorrounded by wolves.
I KNEW that Murska and Happy talked with NS, they told me all about it before the night ended, I find it very hard to belive both of them would be wolves.
If she is the fool (or some other unimportant role), then our seer can scry her if he/she wants to risk losing a scry to someone that are likely to die during the night.
She is indeed a wolf, then ONE of our seer/fool will scry her and reveal her real identity and we don't need to lynch her based on strange logic. This would take two nights, but then the seer always can get a proxy to out her once the scries are done.
Of course, we can always lynch her later once one of the seer/fool dies, but lynching her now is very stupid and based on mostly paranoid logic.
Of course, some of you might pretend to be wanting to lynch her dur the off-chance that the wolves choose to ignore her, I really hope that is the case here.
Well, i suppose I will point out at Murksa because he's addmitted it.
__________________
Moleotar done by lindorm
Quote:
I remember the Myrka as menacing, unstoppable and well-nigh indestructible. Nowhere did I describe it as a four-legged beast on loan from Panto-Horses-Are-Us
I will say, the chances that Happy is a wolf are exceedingly low. Simply put, there's no reason for her to be brought in at all on the Baner issue. The Baner had already revealed himself to a wolf (Murska) by both happy and murska's accounts. There's nothing to gain by bringing additional wolves in.
Even if that were the case, if Happy were a wolf, there would be no reason to out murska. If Happy hadn't posted her accusation of Murska, and both were wolves, then they'd melt back into relative obscurity again, with a baner down and NO casualties.
Compare this to exposing 2 wolves, in a random gamble to get one into an inner circle, and a very likely shot to get both killed.
No, that seems like too much of a long shot for the wolves to bet two team members on. No, Happy's probably a villager. But she'll still be lynched, on the off shot that she actually survives the night... Because people are sheep, and either a wolf will start that bandwagon, or subtly prod it along when a villager starts it. Only hope for her is if the wolves leave her, and she's Day-baned.
All I'm gonna say is that Talic is using some pretty good logic.
But if Happy ISN'T a wolf, what would we gain by killing her? I suggest we leave her alive. She has claimed to be the seer, I'd rather we keep her alive. Besides, the wolves will probably kill her rather soon.
I think I've cleared it a bit more now...
I still don't quite get the big picture, but from studying Tallic's lines, I've come to see that he might be a werewolf.
I'm not pretty sure how to explain it, it's like that itch that isn't really there, or that funny feeling in the back.
BTW, Phantom, I'm maybe not the best for the job, but I could whip up some trophies for ya.
Crimmy, that is your 2nd time accusing me, if I remember correctly, and your best line of reasoning is "if happy is a wolf, I'm next". This time it's a gut feeling, a hunch, and a whisper and a prayer.
Please, I'd like to think the villagers have more to go on. I'm trying to argue to SAVE a probable villager, even though I know it's probably a lost cause. My reasoning led me to vote for Murska before he outed himself.
And you're arguing to "maybe" think I might be a werewolf. Well, news flash. Any of us might be. Let's try to keep our bandwagons to the wolf that's howling in the room, rather than however many may be lurking in the shadows.
Tell you what, you seem to be in the "Happy's a wolf" camp. Let's see how things turn out before we start throwing suspicion around. If I can convince the group here not to lynch her tomorrow, her night death is assured... If she's not a wolf. But it forces the wolves to use a night kill on her, rather than someone else. That keeps every other villager alive, at least.
If she is a wolf, then the wolves are a caliber of foolish not seen in a while. If that's the case, we've got a pretty decent fighting chance, as long as we play by the evidence, rather than listening to those funny feelings on your back.
EDIT: I don't mean to come off as harsh. I'm just tired of constantly being in the he said/she said wolf accusations. It always boils down to everyone thinking "if he's not a wolf, then the other one must be"... and in all likelihood, they're BOTH villagers, and the wolves are getting a jolly chuckle out of it. I'd rather see the game feud free, and I'd rather try to get a W here.
I have never accused you, not even in my latest post have I accused you.
Your paranoia is showing. I said might, never said I was sure.
Please, don't dig too deep, or you'll just drown yourself, I still have my doubts about you being a werewolf, i'm still not sure, so please, make me trust you.
EDIT: Also, I still don't think happy's anything. I was just going on with the
so-called "proof" they showed, and I made my decision based on that.
1. Before the role PMs ever went out, I dared Murska to try and get me day one lynched and said he couldn't do it because no one wants to lynch girls.
2. Game starts, and I look like I'm about to get day one lynched.
3. I come out as seer/fool to try and stop the lynch. Someone else is lynched, and I ask to be baned.
4. FF Fanboy/Night Surgeon tells Murska and then me that he's the baner.
5. Murska has NS nightkilled, then tries to frame me. After he's unsuccessful, he comes out as a wolf.
6. I get my scry results of NS and find out that I'm the fool.
7. Since I'm likely to get killed tonight, I'm trying to organize the villager's network before I go. I've gotten a good start, but I really need one of the masons to contact me.
8. Meanwhile, there are other debates about whether or not I'm a wolf, whether the power roles should talk to me, and whether I should be lynched if I survive the night.
I have never accused you, not even in my latest post have I accused you.
Your paranoia is showing. I said might, never said I was sure.
Please, don't dig too deep, or you'll just drown yourself, I still have my doubts about you being a werewolf, i'm still not sure, so please, make me trust you.
EDIT: Also, I still don't think happy's anything. I was just going on with the
so-called "proof" they showed, and I made my decision based on that.
I'm not going to "make you" anything. I'm tired of constantly having to defend myself turn after turn in these games. Whether I've been a mason, or a villager, or what-have-you, I've tried to play logically, and point out the gaping holes in people's paranoid theories, and every game, I get called a wolf for it. (or it's hinted, or suggested, or whatever)
So let's look at the paranoid theory this time, shall we? Let's look.
TEXT WALL!!!!!!! woo!
Spoiler
After night 1, and the baner was lynched...
Murska (Wolf - self-incrimination) - Accuses Happy of being a wolf. - Note: He introduces information nobody has. Information that nobody could use to connect him or happy to NS's night killing... Until now. Ask yourself... Why?
Happyturtle (Fool by admission, identity unconfirmed) - Counter-accusation, based on more new information that nobody had. Obviously, an attempt to get people to not lynch her. Why? Well, the above statement hasn't yet been corroborated yet, so it'd be murska trying to persuade others at this point.
Post 49 is another accusation by Murska, no corroborating evidence.
Post 51 is the first of the chat logs (last half of the conversation).
Post 53, Murska's counter, shows a bit more, but is ultimately inconclusive.
Now from this, we know that the two of these people are claiming to know that NS wasn't a random lucky kill. This is news to everyone.
What does that mean? If they had not revealed this, nobody would have known. There are a couple possibilities. The first, as you suggest, is that it's an intricate plan designed to get murska killed (1 wolf), and payoff one trusted role with the masons. Couple problems with this:
1) risky. Very risky. Wolves have the advantage, with baner dying. They've no need to be risky.
2) Happy already listed herself as expendable, and possessing no useful information (announcing herself as the fool). This means that even if the Masons DO trust her, they've no reason to contact her. She has no useful information. So plan fails, even if Happy's trusted.
The second? Murska was afraid that Happy would out him, and beat her to the punch. This line of thinking puts happy and murska at odds, which suggests that happy is not a wolf.
So we have enough information to clear either happy OR murska, at this point, and since neither claim useful information, to leave them both out of the loop. However, which one? Well, the jury's already leaning towards Murska, so that looks like the test subject. If murska's a wolf, chances are, happy's not.
But let's continue.
Post 59 doesn't disprove your theory, though it's pretty unlikely already.
And here's the theory that started this.
1) All this has done is raise suspicion on both of them. How on EARTH would anyone trust them after this?
2) Even if they do, WHY would they feed information to a Villager or a Fool?
3) Knowing this, why would a wolf take such a risk, based only on the hope that the villagers betray their ranks? Scratch that. Why would TWO wolves take that risk? That's what? 25% of the wolves? More?
I state my misgivings with your argument in 69 and 71, and Tired joins in on 70.
Your counter? Post 72. If one gets lynched the other gets cleared of all charges and is free to be a wolf in the henhouse. But what you don't mention is that it's charges that WOULDN'T EVEN EXIST were it not for the two of them leveling them against each other.
Then Eagle actively threatens my lynch (74). This is the first post I mistook for you, in my more recent letter. Apologies on that.
In 75, I welcome the lynching, if they're both bad. So now, if you believe I'm a wolf, that's 3 in the pot. But Eagle's entire issue is my defense of Happy... If she's not a wolf, his entire argument crumbles, and it's ONE wolf, who happens to be very good at playing the manipulation angle. Murska.
Then in 76, Murska admits Wolf status. This seals his doom. He's gonna be lynched.
We have an option.
1) Lynch Happy next, followed by me, if Happy's a wolf.
2) Leave her alive for now. If she's a fool/seer as she claims, the wolves will get her soon enough. If not, she'll give herself away, and we can lynch her later.
I favor the second option. It goes without saying that we should leave her out of the loop, but that loop's not mine to make the choice in. Anyone that doesn't have useful information should never be privy to the inner circle. And if she's the fool, she doesn't have useful information.
So the compromise is: Don't trust her, but don't lynch her... yet. If she is the fool, then the REAL seer can verify that with a scry. Long as she doesn't show up as a villager, she can't be the Alpha. If she shows up as a wolf/villager, then she lied about seer/fool status. Lynch her then.
In this way, if your theory is correct, the wolf plan was foiled. Nobody's on the inner circle. If mine is, then no Good Guy gets lynched.
I have never accused you, not even in my latest post have I accused you.
Excuse me?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Crimmy's most recent post
I still don't quite get the big picture, but from studying Tallic's lines, I've come to see that he might be a werewolf.
I'm sorry, but if that's not an accusation...
Anyways, Murska has already admitted it, so might as well toss out my vote as a roll call if nothing else.
__________________ Quote of the [insert timeframe here]: (Week? Perhaps! Year? Also maybe.)
"Those who have learned to walk on the threshold of the unknown worlds...may then with the fair white wings of Imagination hope to soar further into the unexplored amidst which we live."
-Augusta Ada Lovelace
(Kairos avatar by Elrond)
Last edited by Icewalker : 04-13-2009 at 07:13 PM.
Technically, he's correct. It's not technically an accusation, though his idle maybe accomplishes the exact same task. A bit of semantic smoke and mirrors for the audience, as it were.
Ok, but seriously? He didn't vote against you, but it wasn't exactly a subtle claim.
__________________ Quote of the [insert timeframe here]: (Week? Perhaps! Year? Also maybe.)
"Those who have learned to walk on the threshold of the unknown worlds...may then with the fair white wings of Imagination hope to soar further into the unexplored amidst which we live."
-Augusta Ada Lovelace
Okay, sorry.
When I was writing that, i wasn't precisly trying to accuse him.
And yeah, now that I re-read it, I realize it does look like an accusation.
Anyhow, seems you're using your head all you can, so I'm gonna trust you on this one, Tallic.
Let's hope you're right.
I should vote for Murska, because he's an admitted wolf and it would not change my suspiciosness at all, unlike the rare chance of it affecting me later, not that it makes much difference. But everyone is voting for murska and I hate bandwagons. Therefore I must vote for someone different I find suspicious.
Murska, you really are the most suspicious, even before you revealed your role. Hmph. With everyone on this bandwagon it makes it decidingly more difficult.
Shadowcaller, then. Your votes might be random, but they might not. Same with a lot of people, but I find you a bit suspicious.
"Has anyone seen the Viscount? Anyone? Great, just great. The formost parton of the Opera House has disappeared."
"Can things get worst?" BOOM!
"Now what?"
One of the cannon props just went off, blowing a hole in the Opera House's roof. A piece of the roof falls, crushing someone.
"Who is?" "What happened?" "Why, this isn't a person. Its just a shadow?""How can a shadow be crushed?"
"Perhaps you will believe in the Opera Ghost." "There is no such thing as ghosts."
Summary: Murska was lynched, he was a shadow(Wolf)
Night 2 begins, and ends in about 24 hours
P.S. Here's another version of the song. Its different than the other versions in this thread so far.
__________________
Avatar by The Randomizer
Last edited by ThePhantom : 04-14-2009 at 08:29 PM.
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Re: Phantom of the Opera Werewolf - Game Thread
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