Medieval Werewolf II - Now With 50% Less Seers

[Saposhiente]

Thought over my scries. Based on that result I'm going to give town points to Tom. So far, every woodwind has been Town, and every non-woodwind has been either scum or uncertain, and if this theory is correct then Matthias is scum.

[Saposhiente]

Specifically, my theory would mean

Town	Scum
Zar Peter	calar
Ramsus	RuneboundShade
The Crash Man	bladescape
Istari	Matthias
Tom the Mime

[Tom the Mime]

I think the woodwind argument seems okay (I was going along the same lines but I forgot saxophones were wood not brass and discarded the idea). Matthias is up there on my suspect list as well. The only issue is that a shehnai is in fact a wind instrument. So using the instrument scry theory as well, I'm voting for usourselves&we. Lynching someone with no instrument scry is better than one which suggests they might be town.

[Saposhiente]

All of the instruments are wind instruments. A shennai is technically a brass-- oh. It is a woodwind. How did I manage to screw that up? Who knows.
FIXED SCRY TABLE (now with formatting! green = conf town, red = conf scum, strikethrough = dead)

Town	Scum
Zar Peter	calar
Ramsus	RuneboundShade
The Crash Man	bladescape
Istari
Tom the Mime
Matthias

usourselves&we, and if the game doesn't end then Gray Mage

[Tom the Mime]

Sorry, I thought I had put woodwind not wind in the previous post but it got the point across anyway.

[PirateMonk]

The trouble with the woodwind theory is that, if true, it would mean that everyone is confirmed. Otherwise it seems plausible though, and usourselves&we (at deadline) seems the least confirmed.

[Matthias2207]

&we
And if my fool scries are consistently incorrect, then Gray Mage isn't the Grave-Keeper. Just... You know... Useless info...

[usourselves&we]

hey, that is not nice, killing the neutral right as it gets a half win, shame on all of you for not putting "at deadline" in your posts

Saposhiente for even suggesting Gray Mage could be evil look back to what Zar said when the other masons were autoed.

[Saposhiente]

It's an extremely low-chance scenario, I'd be concerned and would scry him in the unlikely event I survived the night. Thing is, it'd be either him or PriateMonk.
You do make a good point though: Matthias has a good chance of being a Neutral if killing you doesn't end the game, a possibility I hadn't considered.

[Saposhiente]

Also I wasn't playing the game at that time and haven't done a complete readthrough.

[usourselves&we]

the way we see it one word instrument and wolfhood is the connection, but if you want to lose the game then by all means waste the lynch on us and concede the game by notifying that you actually not voting for Matthias

that is to say cross you previous vote Saposhiente <like that

[Saposhiente]

One word instrument theory table (green = conf town, red = conf scum, strikethrough = dead):

Town	Scum
Zar Peter	RuneboundShade
Ramsus	The Crash Man
calar	bladescape
Istari	Tom the Mime
	Matthias

Okay, so it is a possibility. It reverses the roles of all of the unconfirmed people. Note that the Zar Peter, Ramsus and Calar scries were all either randomly granted or made by flabort, implying that I hit scum with almost every scry... again.
Problem 1 with the theory: Why are all of the instruments wind instruments?
Problem 2 with the theory: It just seems too obvious :/
WIFOM conspiracy: That's what Penguinator wants us to think.
Upside 1 with the theory: Matthias and Tom are suspicious.
Upside 2 with the theory: Tom defended Matthias with the woodwind theory quite handily, and noticed my mistake in classifying Matt as scum, something he'd be less likely to do as Town.
usourselves&we Matthias No Vote
This is worthy of discussion, and we still have 45 hours.
&we, tell us more about your role. Tom and Matthias: Advocate for your innocence.

[Penguinator]

What's WIFOM stand for?

[Saposhiente]

Wine In Front Of Me: Just watch this scene from The Princess Bride.
What happened:

Spoiler

Both glasses were poisoned. The protagonist had built a resistance to the poison over time.

[Penguinator]

Ah. See, I've seen the movie (in fact, I saw it again last Friday) but I've never seen the acronym.

[usourselves&we]

Our role wanted the death of those who make a mockery of the dead.

that is to say other roles that interact with the dead in a not nice was by pulling souls or robbing corpses of power

it also wanted to see the death of the fist killer role, so we are golden on all three counts and with that have a half win, full win will come on surviving the game.

And our power, as said, was knowing who died at night and knowing if a death was one of our hated targets.

[Saposhiente]

Problem 3 with the theory: What would a neutral scry as? I don't know of any three word instruments, and Google can't find any either. With the woodwind theory, a neutral could easily be a non-wind instrument.
&we, got any thoughts to defend your theory?
PirateMonk and Gray Mage: What do you think of &we vs Tom/Matt, based on having been here the whole game?
If &we is telling the truth, we cannot get this lynch wrong.

[Tom the Mime]

Discussion is fine. What my role does is only provable by my death although the name was confirmed by Istari. Istari's role scry couplet of me also hinted that I was townside but I know that isn't solid evidence. Given the wildcard scry was hot/cold last times so woodwind or not seems more his style than something like the number of words. Again, not exactly solid.

The implications of the one/two word theory would be that when there were 12 people left bladescape, The Crash Man, Matthias and I were all wolves. Looking at my suspect list (completely public, couple of pages ago) at that time, I would have to have been completely unconnected and oblivious to their roles (which seems unlikely this late in the game). All of my suspect lists that day (one name changed between them) had 3/3, 2/3 and 3/4 of the "wolves" in them. One of them including myself from an impartial mechanical standpoint. And suggesting that we could use bladescape and my claimed powers to clear the 4 person list in 2 lynches if people agreed with the assumptions and logic. In hindsight, I think I was lax with looking at &we's role verification (and the assumptions seem to be off) but that doesn't change how many wolves I would've been pointing at back then if I was a wolf.

As for me defending Matthias with the woodwind theory, Sapo was the one who initially came up with the woodwind theory. I remembered when I looked the instruments up on wiki (when the scries were first posted) that the shehnai looked like a woodwind instrument. Then I checked it and other the other ones (partially because I hardly ever remember that saxophones are actually woodwind) and corrected Sapo so that it would be more likely that we hit a wolf.

With Istari's alignment scries earlier, Sapo's wildcard scries and that I know what my role and alignment is makes me certain enough about &we's wolfiness that I'll set up my power to lynch him if there's no lynch at deadline.

[Saposhiente]

What is your death-activated power, exactly?

[Tom the Mime]

Not exactly death-activated. It's a loose cannon role - sacrifice yourself to choose the lynch.

[Saposhiente]

Okay. Activate your power and lynch Matthias. Tomorrow, we lynch &we if the game's still going. Unless &we is a wolf with a kill power *in addition* to the normal nightkill (and not a beast power), it's a guaranteed win.

[Saposhiente]

(And if you don't activate your power, we lynch you for being a wolf)

[Tom the Mime]

If other people agree I'll do that but if we're going for that sort of action, I'd prefer to activate my power on &we given I know I'm town. If it turns out I'm lying, I'll still be dead and you can still lynch Matthias tomorrow. Same three people die but the order gets flipped around a little. Makes no difference unless Gray Mage or PirateMonk is also a wolf.

[Saposhiente]

You can also do that.
Meanwhile, Tom the Mime at deadline, in case you don't.

[Saposhiente]

&we, you may now attempt to convince Tom that Matthias is more likely to be a wolf than you if you're a neut and like surviving. I personally don't care and won't be analyzing it. Evidence is woodwind theory vs. Matt's story not checking out as well as yours. It does matter a little bit, in case the wolf has a second kill or an extra life or a silence/vote-block. Also, vote Tom@deadline.

[usourselves&we]

Order of death makes all the difference Tom, especially if we want to get a full win here.
for if there are two wolves and you use your power to not kill one of them there would be four people in the game and thus a wolf win at the end of the day.

now yes there is a large hole in one word=wolf but why kill us when we are not even scryed by the music man? with either theory matthias is flagged as a wolf, his death (by normal lynch we might add *glare at sapo for suggesting to use your power to end the day*) would be more helpful to town. That is the reason we are voting to lynch Matthias, rather then enraged town, also we kind of want a win in our first game as neutral.

[PirateMonk]

usourselves&we

Tom the Mime at deadline.

There are three confirmed people, so as long as Tom targets Matthias or &we we should be safe.

I would favor killing Matthias, who is more suspicious, and letting the alleged neutral get the win.

[Saposhiente]

&we, I have been confirmed by PirateMonk, who is himself confirmed. As long as the wolf doesn't have one of the powers I listed and Tom kills either you or Matt, we cannot lose. If Tom is a wolf, he won't activate and we will need to lynch him at deadline, pretty much confirming you and allowing us to lynch Matt and win.
If you still don't get why it's a win, I've got more explanation spoilered (Tom, this is also for you):

Spoiler

Confirmed	Unconfirmed
Gray Mage	Matthias
PirateMonk	Tom the Mime
Saposhiente	usourselves&we

Say that Tom lynches you and Matt is a wolf. Tomorrow there will be:

Confirmed	Unconfirmed
Gray Mage	Matthias
PirateMonk

Lynch Matt and win
Say that Tom lynches Matt and you're a wolf.

Confirmed	Unconfirmed
Gray Mage	usourselves&we
PirateMonk

Lynch you and win
Say that Tom refuses to activate his power because he's a wolf and we lynch him and Matt is also a wolf

Confirmed	Unconfirmed	Neutral
Gray Mage	Matthias	usourselves&we
PirateMonk

You help us lynch Matthias because if you chose to side with him to prevent a lynch and ensure his victory, he could then choose to not allow you to win, while if we lynch Matthias it's a guaranteed win for you.
(I will be killed in all these scenarios because GM's and PirateMonk's powers aren't actually useful anymore)

The reason we're using the Leeroy strategy instead of standard lynching Matt is because what if you're a wolf? Then Town loses. Remember also that if you vote Tom at Deadline, your vote will only cause his lynch in the event that he doesn't leeroy you or anyone-- a case where you win. If he doesn't leeroy and you're not voting to lynch him, we all lose.
24 hours left.

[Penguinator]

Originally Posted by Saposhiente

24 hours left.

I know I'm sitting here with bated breath.

[Saposhiente]

Matthias, vote Tom at Deadline. Tom, if he doesn't, kill him instead of &we. &we, if you're a neutral, now, in every case where your vote makes a difference, the correct move is to vote Tom at Deadline.