My Little Pony WW 2: The Shadow Reign

[Grue Bait]

Oh, goody, you're back. Wolf.

Kill Alarra.

[bladescape]

Originally Posted by EvilRoeSlade

Well, I suspect that it ultimately wasn't changelings that diverted attention away from Istari.

EDIT: And besides, it's entirely possible that there's only one changeling left and TBFProgrammer's reliance on outdated logic is entirely detrimental.

I was going to post this information in reply to your earlier comment, but the end of day cut me short.

First things first. Only ONE person got changed. There's still two (I am going to guess.) other wolves out there.

Ursa Major (unless he was cut) and another Changeling. Now, lemme guess, HOW do I know there's a third changeling that hasn't changed out yet? Well.... Cassie was Changeling No3. Murska was No2. Wonder what that tells you.

So, EvilRoe, 2 wolves who haven't changed faces this game, against one who has. Wonder where we should be aiming, huh?

And Grue, I'm assuming that's a scry. Don't out scries fast. Ruins analysis for the day. (Yes, I'm repeating an earlier point.)

Alarra

[planswalker]

Seer declares Alarra as a wolf. Wish he'd held off so we could get more analysis today. Think it would have been rather telling.

Still, that'll leave only 2 wolves to find after this.

[EvilRoeSlade]

Originally Posted by bladescape

First things first. Only ONE person got changed. There's still two (I am going to guess.) other wolves out there

Yes exactly. You're guessing. And making a pretty terrible guess too. 6 is too many for a 36 person game. 5 seems excessive to me but I guess that's what we have. Roles were cut. I strongly suspect the Ursa Major was cut since it would be too powerful in a game this size. Given that we're about to eliminate number four, I believe the only changeling left is someone who wasn't a changeling until very recently.

----

Batmare the unmasked vigilante stalks through the night and leaves a note for Alarra.

Please don't reveal my secret identity. I can't allow the public to discover that I'm Batmare.

-Batmare.

P.S I'm Batmare

[Reinholdt]

When I've done WW games in the past, I've found the ratio roughly ~20% of the playerbase are wolves. Of course, Lex can use whatever ratio she wants, but I really don't see 6 as being all that unreasonable at all.

Alarra

There's also the unfortunate possibility Luna's in this game. I really hope not, but you never know.

[TigerFang]

Just what we needed... a touch of chaos. Looks like it's Alarra.

Just one little disconcerting question... What do we do if she is discorded instead of dieing being knocked out like a good pony?

[Penguinator]

The "Big Names" Theory seems to hold.

Alarra it is, and pray she isn't discorded.

[Tom the Mime]

An early seer claim is far less chaotic than I would have liked. That said, Alarra.

And EvilRoeSlade, given the info we have with changeling numbers (and that there were 6 out of 27 on team evil in the most recent classic), I wouldn't call Bladescapes guess terrible.

[TBFProgrammer]

Welp, there goes another seer claim. Alarra on the hopes we can avoid any more changeling shenanigans.

[bladescape]

Originally Posted by EvilRoeSlade

Yes exactly. You're guessing. And making a pretty terrible guess too. 6 is too many for a 36 person game. 5 seems excessive to me but I guess that's what we have. Roles were cut. I strongly suspect the Ursa Major was cut since it would be too powerful in a game this size. Given that we're about to eliminate number four, I believe the only changeling left is someone who wasn't a changeling until very recently.

... What.

As a regular narrator, the average is ~20%, or a 5th. What I was suggesting was a 6th. I was taking into account Luna and Ursa Major because that fits the usual ratio including wolf power roles.

When I guess, it usually has complete knowledge behind it, thanks. Try researching before you tell me my guessing is terrible.

[Penguinator]

Originally Posted by EvilRoeSlade

Yes exactly. You're guessing. And making a pretty terrible guess too. 6 is too many for a 36 person game. 5 seems excessive to me but I guess that's what we have. Roles were cut. I strongly suspect the Ursa Major was cut since it would be too powerful in a game this size. Given that we're about to eliminate number four, I believe the only changeling left is someone who wasn't a changeling until very recently.

Look at yourself. Look at bladescape. Back to yourself. Back to bladescape. Sadly, you're not bladescape. But if you'd played in and/or run nearly as many games and done half as many great plays as he, you could begin to think like bladescape. Look down. Back up. Where are you? You're in a forum. Anything is possible when you think like bladescape.

Back to reality. No, that's not guessing. At all. That comes from the experience of playing in and running games, an experience that you, at least to my personal knowledge, don't have nearly as much of. Find a place where it says roles were cut. I recall none. Perhaps there was one. But, I doubt it.

1) Changeling 2. Changeling 3. They are gone. If the only Changeling left is the one Changeling 3 became, then what happened to Changeling 1? Lex-Kat isn't mean-spirited enough to send us on a wild goose chase.

2) The Last MLP game had 9 wolves. 9. That's three more than bladescape is suggesting. That's 150% wolves. And only 7 more players. That's 150% more wolves and not even a 20% player increase. Oh, yeah, the wolves had a nightkill outside of the regular one every couple nights, too. And Ursa Minor.

3) Statistics. In no way is 6 wolves too many for a 36 player game. In fact, that might be a bit underwolfed. Especially with all the good power roles.

4) I've personally run games with 8 wolves out of 30 players. That's 26+1/3% wolves. Wow, that's a lot. And hey, the town even won the second time. By a wide margin. In fact, I don't think they had a single full-town mislynch. The only mislynches were caused by the Executioner.

5) I'm on a horse. I am a horse.

[Istari]

"Day 9:Townsponies becoming increasing irritable. I've always been on the edge of suspicion, hopefully they can learn to trust me. Progress is being made but the cost is high.

Alarra

[Elemental]

The Count was walking down the main street of Ponyville, umbrella held high to prevent getting overly chocolaty and sunglasses on to prevent unfortunate splashes. Oh how he hated chocolate...
He stopped at a news stand and purchased a copy of the Sydneigh Herald and sat inside a café with a glass of apple juice to read it.

Student Accuses Small Town Artist of Lycanthropy

In shock, he choked on his juice. He managed to recover with the aid of a helpful waitress.
WEREWOLVES? Changelings were bad enough!
Could I have some muffins?

---

Alarra.

[planswalker]

The brown earth pony offers the Count a button to push.

"Instant muffin button."

[Diego Havoc]

Darn forum ate my post...

Originally Posted by Elemental

Bah! Russian Fluttershy has the best evil laugh!
*evil laughter*

Hmph. Just for that...

Originally Posted by Elemental

WEREWOLVES? Changelings were bad enough!
Could I have some muffins?

Originally Posted by planswalker

The brown earth pony offers the Count a button to push.

"Instant muffin button."

*pressing the instant muffin button causes a giant lead muffin to fall from the sky. Better get out of the way quick!*

Originally Posted by TBFProgrammer

I refuse to acknowledge the chaos. ~Mule

That's okay. The chaos will acknowledge you instead *turns the mule's mane and tail into spaghetti*

---

Oh, I suppose I should make a vote too, eh? Let's see what we get...

*summons a giant roulette wheel and spins it*

Diego Havoc? Never heard of him.

(ooc: No, seriously, that's what random.org chose. That's chaos for you )

[Elemental]

The Count looked up at the falling muffin.
He looked calmly at Discord and raised his umbrella over the Brown Stallion with the purple pants and himself.
Don't worry, this umbrella doubles as a shield.
The lead muffin hit the umbrella with the clank of metal striking metal before rolling off to the side. He gave a scathing look to Discord.
That is hardly the scariest thing made of lead that has come hurtling toward me.
But it was Random!!
He gave a smile to Discord.
I'll just take the blueberry Good Sir.
He handed some coins to the baker.

[planswalker]

A blueberry muffin is given in return.

The little dear says, "Eat me, eat me, eat me! Oh, please eat me!

[super dark33]

Appearently, other ponies started eying towards Musings.
things were getting too hot to handle now.
its time to do the ultimate distraction from the situation.


Its time to start a feast.
a lovely party at the safety of the manor.
Chaos wouldnt reach there.

Time to do some preparations!
(preparations will be ready on day 10, and then the party will start for RP and maybe game purposes)

[inky13112]

Alarra it is then.

[Lex-Kat]

Day 9

Musings ran through the chocolate rain, mouth open to the sky drinking all the yummy chocolate she could. I looooove this holiday!! she called out, after licking her lips clean.

She opened her mouth again to *BUMP* almost bite her tongue as she fell on her bottom. Hay! she looed up to find herself looking into the smiling face of Discord.

So you like it? You really really like all this chaos? he aksed, ringing his hands in delight.

Musings nodded her head rapidly. Uh-huh. Not only is it yummy, but so creative. she looks around at the chaos surrounding her. It's living art.

When she looked back up at Discord, he was... Was he? Why yes, he was crying. You make me sooo proud. It's not many who see the beauty of me. He then touched her little nose, making her sneeze three times.

When she finished, and looked around, Discord was gone. Musings once again took off, enjoying the chocolate rain. Oh, cotton candy!! She pounced on a low-lying cloud. *Nom nom nom*

Spoiler

Musings (Alarra) has been discorded. She's still alive.

Rules for the Days of Chaos

Spoiler

Diego Havoc (Discord) will leave the game in three days, but will continue to live on during his Chaotic Riegn. His votes count, but votes against him do not.

Discorded: During the chaos there is a 50% chance that characters who would be killed, are instead "Discorded". Anyone who is discorded in this way and has a vanilla role has an additional 50% chance to gain a random power role for the duration of the chaos, including one that is still active, while players with power roles have a 50% chance to lose them and become vanilla town/changelings and a 50% chance to simply change to a different role. Alignment does not change.

The Terrible Table of Chance: Once per day/night phase, the Narrator will roll randomly for the table's effects and announce the results to the thread during the narration.

I've given the Random Table events names. Each event can only be used once.

Table:
1) Lights On! Lights Off!
2) Supercharged Ponies
3) Incredible Giant Pony!
4) Oh no! Poison Joke!
5) Acid Pony
6) A bit of Irish blood
7) Without a Trace
8) Night of the living dead
9) Role Call!!
10) Chocolate Rain Drops

Today's Event is.....

Spoiler

Lights On! Lights Off!: Day and Night rapidly switch at random intervals. The end result is that any abilities (excluding lynches and night kills/disguises) that can be used during the night can be used during the day and vice-versa.

The following player is still disappeared, Without a Trace: usourselves&we

Night 9 Begins.
It will last about 24 hours.

Missed 1 Day
Sitzkrieg

Missed 2 Days

AL- Replacements

Player list

Spoiler

#	Player	Character	Killed?	Role
01	Alarra	Musings
02	Bladescape C'Nor
04	Diego Havoc	Elixir
05	Elemental	Ember Metal, Count von Sterling
06	EvilRoeSlade	Batmare
07	Grue Bait	Grue Bay
08	inky13112	Sour Bloom
09	Istari	Dr. Whooves
10	Penguinator	Orange Cadence
11	planswalker	Yellow Pants (literally)
12	Reinholdt Matthais2207
13	Sitzkrieg
14	Super Dark33	Dark Spark
15	TBFProgrammer	(a stubborn mule)
16	TigerFang	TigerPony
17	Tom the Mime	Barrister Trotalot, PC
18	usourselves&we	(a 3 legged pony)
18	52.5 Lemons	Sub-Lime	Day 8- AL**	{Replaced by Sitzkrieg}
17	Eternis	Dorian Grey	Day 8	Princess Cadance
16	Castaras	Old Fruit	Night 7	Changling 3- Shifted
15	C'Nor	Senorita Cha Cha	Day 7- AL**	{Replaced by Bladescape}
14	Murska	(Definitely NOT a green-eyed pony named Verde Invidia o.o)	Day 7	Changling 2
13	Atreyu, the Masked Llama	Rocky Horror Llama	Night 6	Town Pony Llama
12	GnomeGninjas	Gninja Ninja	Day 6	Queen Chrysalis (Alpha)
11	Forum Explorer	Thinking Cap	Night 5	Town Pony
10	Gray Mage	Rainy Charge	Day 5	Shining Armor
09	Rogue Nine Internet Flea	Silver Star	Night 4	Town Pony
08	Mangosta71	Dread Pony Roberts	Day 4	Town Pony
07	Ramsus	Emperor Treasure	Night 3	Pinkie Pie (Fool)
06	Matthias2207	Warpony Tarquin	Day 3- AL**	{Replaced by Reinholdt}
05	Internet Flea	Sugar Shock	Day 3- VA*	{Replaced by Rogue Nine}
04	Grimmace, the	Jazzberry Jam	Day 3	Darkwing Pony (Devil)
03	Otakuryoga	Ballast Control	Night 2	Rainbow Dash (Wonderbolts)
02	Reinholdt	Mister Buttons	Night 1	Town Pony
01	Rogue Nine	Grumpy Bear	Day 1	Town Pony Bear

* Voluntary Absence
**Auto Lynch

[Diego Havoc]

Sun goes up.
Sun goes down.
Sun goes up.
Sun goes down.
Sun goes up.
Sun goes down.
Sun goes up.
Sun goes down.
Sun goes up.
Sun goes down.

I don't know why Celestia makes such a big deal out of this, it's not like it's HARD or anything.

[TBFProgrammer]

I find a nice dark cave in which to sleep out the night, where the sun can not bother me. ~Mule

[super dark33]

The feast was nearly complete, all that was needed was to announce it.



Attention named citizens of ponyvi- tiaravi- DISCORDVILLE!

a feast is takeing place at the von sterling manor as celabration for our new mighty overlord!
No invitation is needed, the only thing you need is a name.


There. with the people comeing in flocks tommorow Discord will probably do more stuff inside the manor and mess inside instead of ruining the whole town, but that is not somthing to be predicted.

Raw chaos, thats what he is.
What is he supposed to be anyway? some kind of bird-horse-god-thing?
I bet my father could beat him.
Well my father could beat anyone if my dreams are more then they seem.

[EvilRoeSlade]

Batmare knows she needs to invent an amazing device capable of stopping Discord. For the moment however, she's rather distracted.

The sun rises. Batmare stands on the tallest building in ponyville, her mighty silhouette illuminated against the coming dawn while her cape flutters in the wind.

The sun sets. Batmare tries another ominous pose to highlight her frame against the Twilight.

Eventually she gives up resistance. Discord can't be that bad if he's letting her look this cool.

[Lex-Kat]

Night 9

And then it was day! All the Changlings looked about, shocked that they were out in the daylight so soon. Just like roaches, they ran screaming for the darkest corners of ponyville, diving for the protection of Darkness.

Spoiler

Nothing has happened, yet. It is effectively still "Night 9". So Night actions are to continue. But... it's also Day, so begin voting for who you wish to Lynch.

Rules for the Days of Chaos

Spoiler

Diego Havoc (Discord) will leave the game in three days, but will continue to live on during his Chaotic Reign. His votes count, but votes against him do not.

Discorded: During the chaos there is a 50% chance that characters who would be killed, are instead "Discorded". Anyone who is discorded in this way and has a vanilla role has an additional 50% chance to gain a random power role for the duration of the chaos, including one that is still active, while players with power roles have a 50% chance to lose them and become vanilla town/changelings and a 50% chance to simply change to a different role. Alignment does not change.

The Terrible Table of Chance: Once per day/night phase, the Narrator will roll randomly for the table's effects and announce the results to the thread during the narration.

I've given the Random Table events names. Each event can only be used once.

Table:
1) Lights On! Lights Off!
2) Supercharged Ponies
3) Incredible Giant Pony!
4) Oh no! Poison Joke!
5) Acid Pony
6) A bit of Irish blood
7) Without a Trace
8) Night of the living dead
9) Role Call!!
10) Chocolate Rain Drops

Today's Event is.....

Spoiler

Lights On! Lights Off!: Day and Night rapidly switch at random intervals. The end result is that any abilities (excluding lynches and night kills/disguises) that can be used during the night can be used during the day and vice-versa.

The following player is still disappeared, Without a Trace: usourselves&we

Day 9 Continues.
It will last about 24 hours.

Missed 1 Day
Sitzkrieg

Missed 2 Days

AL- Replacements

Player list

Spoiler

#	Player	Character	Killed?	Role
01	Alarra	Musings
02	Bladescape C'Nor
04	Diego Havoc	Elixir
05	Elemental	Ember Metal, Count von Sterling
06	EvilRoeSlade	Batmare
07	Grue Bait	Grue Bay
08	inky13112	Sour Bloom
09	Istari	Dr. Whooves
10	Penguinator	Orange Cadence
11	planswalker	Yellow Pants (literally)
12	Reinholdt Matthais2207
13	Sitzkrieg
14	Super Dark33	Dark Spark
15	TBFProgrammer	(a stubborn mule)
16	TigerFang	TigerPony
17	Tom the Mime	Barrister Trotalot, PC
18	usourselves&we	(a 3 legged pony)
18	52.5 Lemons	Sub-Lime	Day 8- AL**	{Replaced by Sitzkrieg}
17	Eternis	Dorian Grey	Day 8	Princess Cadance
16	Castaras	Old Fruit	Night 7	Changling 3- Shifted
15	C'Nor	Senorita Cha Cha	Day 7- AL**	{Replaced by Bladescape}
14	Murska	(Definitely NOT a green-eyed pony named Verde Invidia o.o)	Day 7	Changling 2
13	Atreyu, the Masked Llama	Rocky Horror Llama	Night 6	Town Pony Llama
12	GnomeGninjas	Gninja Ninja	Day 6	Queen Chrysalis (Alpha)
11	Forum Explorer	Thinking Cap	Night 5	Town Pony
10	Gray Mage	Rainy Charge	Day 5	Shining Armor
09	Rogue Nine Internet Flea	Silver Star	Night 4	Town Pony
08	Mangosta71	Dread Pony Roberts	Day 4	Town Pony
07	Ramsus	Emperor Treasure	Night 3	Pinkie Pie (Fool)
06	Matthias2207	Warpony Tarquin	Day 3- AL**	{Replaced by Reinholdt}
05	Internet Flea	Sugar Shock	Day 3- VA*	{Replaced by Rogue Nine}
04	Grimmace, the	Jazzberry Jam	Day 3	Darkwing Pony (Devil)
03	Otakuryoga	Ballast Control	Night 2	Rainbow Dash (Wonderbolts)
02	Reinholdt	Mister Buttons	Night 1	Town Pony
01	Rogue Nine	Grumpy Bear	Day 1	Town Pony Bear

* Voluntary Absence
**Auto Lynch

[planswalker]

EvilRoeSlade's emphatic argument that there HAS to be only 2 wolves left sounded kinda fishy to me. I would think estimating that less than 1/6 were wolves is kinda nonsensical. To me, it sounded like a wolf trying to convince people his role didn't exist.

My suspicion is that he is in fact the ursa major and that is why he tried to tell us that it would "make no sense" for us to suspect that role was kept.

[EvilRoeSlade]

Then take a look at my record before you decide. On day 3 we weren't sure whether to believe Grue Bait or not. The votes were at a 3-3 tie literally whether or not to execute their seer or our own, and there were some pretty hard arguements for lynching Grue Bait. At that point I switched votes, making it 4-2 in Grue Bait's favor.

On day 5 I announced that I didn't believe Gnome Gninja and tried to form a bandwagon on him before GB asked us to lynch him and the bandwagon was forming on Istari.

If you really think I'm a changeling you might as well leave me be for now so I can continue to sabotage my own team. All I've ever done is say what I believe, whether it's agreed with or not.

Because I'm Batmare. And we still need to take care of Alarra.

[planswalker]

that's a very good point. I should check the voting history first. I apologize.

Alarra in that case.

[Reinholdt]

But... I don't even... wut...
Alarra.

[Ramsus]

I agree, Lex-kat.