Careless Village WW

[Penguinator]

The cake was a lie, eh?

Yeah, C'Nor seemed a bit off yesterday. He was kinda against voting for FE for seemingly no reason. It's a blind game, yes. But that was odd.

And... I still don't understand "Clueless Newcomer" taking over as the Devil... seems rather anti-town.

[planswalker]

Originally Posted by Penguinator

The cake was a lie, eh?

Yeah, C'Nor seemed a bit off yesterday. He was kinda against voting for FE for seemingly no reason. It's a blind game, yes. But that was odd.

And... I still don't understand "Clueless Newcomer" taking over as the Devil... seems rather anti-town.

it means that one of the 35 "clueless newcomer" roles is now the new devil. Whether or not that role is currently active is unknown. Count Dingdong confirmed that in my QT.

[Count Dingdong]

Originally Posted by Penguinator

And... I still don't understand "Clueless Newcomer" taking over as the Devil... seems rather anti-town.

There is no "taking over." At least one of the 35 Newcomer roles (now 36) is likely to be a Devil. How Newcomers work is choose number. That number already has role randomly assigned to it. When they enter, become that role.

There is no way to determine role or alignment based on number or who recently died. Randomly determined at outset of game, and nothing changes that. Roles could enter at any time. Amount of Wolf/Village/Neutral is also unknown.

[bladescape]

So, after having a solid look so far, suffice to say today I don't believe I agree with Ramsus. Tom the Mime.

[usourselves&we]

Originally Posted by planswalker

Well, color me surprised to still be in. I'd have thought the wolves would want me dead as a confirmed mason.

Not totally sure what to make of voting yet, this being my second WW and all. What do the more experienced people think?

Likely it is because you are a confirmed that the wolves are not attacking you (cause like baner and what not).

Haven't really looked too closely at the votes yet, and can normally only notice things after the fifth day (by the way people act) or later in normal (read as including PMs) games, so it will likely take longer here.

sup erd ark for the second time, probably will do it the next day as well, you know for the threes.

[Lex-Kat]

I wanna be... uh, which newcomer role numbers are available?

[Count Dingdong]

Originally Posted by Lex-Kat

I wanna be... uh, which newcomer role numbers are available?

"Lex-Kat can choose a new spot as a Clueless Newcomer on Night 4"

May want to wait few days.

But available newcomer roles = #16-51, except 17, 27, 31, 42, 50.

[Tom the Mime]

I don't really get the theories here that depend on the wolves knowing each other. It's a blind, no pm game where night kills and scries on fellow wolves don't connect them and we know the starting devil is dead. They could've just had a super read but I don't see it as very likely. I guess it can't do any worse than firing randomly in the dark &we'd mostly be doing at this stage anyway.
Yes, my votes were basically chosen by what fit into the discussion after I'd written it

[Ramsus]

What...my opposition for mayor is dead and people still aren't voting for me.

Can I reserve Clueless Newcomer spot 13 for when I eventually bite it and come back?

[Eternis]

C'nor
UsOurselves&We

[C'nor]

Originally Posted by Penguinator

Yeah, C'Nor seemed a bit off yesterday. He was kinda against voting for FE for seemingly no reason. It's a blind game, yes. But that was odd.

He was a Seer-claimant, who had a reasonable story about Night 1, since Ramsus is a good enough scry target to make it plausible that there would have been interference on him.

Since the evidence against him was fairly weak (basically, only things that could be either newbie mistakes or wolf arguments, and little to make a case for them being either, since this is only his second game), I was opposed to killing him with no counter-claim, since if he had turned out to be the Seer, it wouldn't have been good at all.

Also, Ramsus's reasoning sounded screwy to me, and still does. Call me insufficiently paranoid, but the fact that someone who claims Seer on Day Two has a good reason for not having any scries doesn't make them seem more suspicious to me, which is what he was arguing.

Ramsus is also trying to obfuscate matters today, since knowing FE's role would have been required for the fact that I tried to stop us from lynching him to matter, meaning that the following has to occur:

FE scries a wolf (me, for this hypothetical, but it could be anyone) Night One.

In the space of less than a full day phase, they convince me that I should trust them.

Rather than throwing me under the bus to get reasonably confirmed as a Seer (which just about anyone who has some experience with the games, including me, would have advised him to do) he says he got interference.

Considering just how improbable all of that happening together is, it makes his current argument seem more like an attempt to make me seem wolfish without any good evidence, or at best not very good reasoning for killing me, yes?

[Count Dingdong]

Originally Posted by Ramsus

Can I reserve Clueless Newcomer spot 13 for when I eventually bite it and come back?

Nope. 1) no spot 13. 2) no reservations.

[TBFProgrammer]

I, accidentally left a baited trap...

Sorry C'nor, had forgotten about newcomer roles when making that post. That said, Ramsus is being rather pushy on that issue.


About the wolves knowing each other: I somehow thought that wolves and masons worked the same way. Rereading, I see that the wolves can't identify each other (bluh, does not like).

[planswalker]

Originally Posted by C'nor

He was a Seer-claimant, who had a reasonable story about Night 1, since Ramsus is a good enough scry target to make it plausible that there would have been interference on him.

Since the evidence against him was fairly weak (basically, only things that could be either newbie mistakes or wolf arguments, and little to make a case for them being either, since this is only his second game), I was opposed to killing him with no counter-claim, since if he had turned out to be the Seer, it wouldn't have been good at all.

to me, that sounds like the 50/50 chance I spoke of...

Also, Ramsus's reasoning sounded screwy to me, and still does. Call me insufficiently paranoid, but the fact that someone who claims Seer on Day Two has a good reason for not having any scries doesn't make them seem more suspicious to me, which is what he was arguing.

claiming seer at the last moment after getting sufficient votes to get lynched and having nothing he can tell us other than a convenient and not impossible interference and having derped his chance to scry night 0 is hardly what I'd have done if I was the seer in his place.

Ramsus is also trying to obfuscate matters today, since knowing FE's role would have been required for the fact that I tried to stop us from lynching him to matter,

you don't have to have a role proven to you in order to be able to make an educated guess about it and act on it.

since no one starts off knowing anything about anyone, it'll take the seers a damn long time to get networks of any decent size together. instead, we've got to depend on logic and guesswork and reading people's voting patterns and logic. The latter is the one from you I find suspicious.

meaning that the following has to occur:

it is obfuscating, however, to declare that only one possible path of logic could have been taken to reach a certain behavior. Give human creativity more credit than that.

FE scries a wolf (me, for this hypothetical, but it could be anyone) Night One.

Possible, I'll grant you, but see my arguments below for why this step isn't actually required.

In the space of less than a full day phase, they convince me that I should trust them.

OR, perhaps, he did nothing of the sort and you instead came to the same general conclusion I did.

Rather than throwing me under the bus to get reasonably confirmed as a Seer (which just about anyone who has some experience with the games, including me, would have advised him to do) he says he got interference.

to me, this sounds like a very good argument for why he didn't scry a wolf, which only means he didn't scry a wolf. If I had been playing devil and knew I hadn't scried any wolves they could use for a seer test, I'd have claimed interference instead of either A) revealing a role to the town, thereby helping town or B) lying about someone and giving them an opportunity to counter-claim and inform town.

Since this is MY second game as well, it's not unreasonable at all to assume this was FE's logic.

Considering just how improbable all of that happening together is, it makes his current argument seem more like an attempt to make me seem wolfish without any good evidence, or at best not very good reasoning for killing me, yes?

no.

This argument above sounds like, to me, a wolf doing their best to show off how illogical it is to analyze voting patterns to establish facts this early on. Discouraging town from thinking doesn't sound like a good idea for townies to do.

you gave one possible interpretation, not the only one.

[C'nor]

Originally Posted by planswalker

to me, that sounds like the 50/50 chance I spoke of...

Exactly. Where we differ is in whether it's good or bad to lynch a potential Seer at that probability. My thought was that if he wasn't the Seer the real Seer would scry him that night to see which of them, if either, was the Fool (or the Fool would, which would get similar results, since their role wouldn't show up as one of the possible options for a Seer/Fool), and then inform us of what they found. If he was, we'd just be hurting Town, for not much potential gain at all.

Originally Posted by planswalker

claiming seer at the last moment after getting sufficient votes to get lynched and having nothing he can tell us other than a convenient and not impossible interference and having derped his chance to scry night 0 is hardly what I'd have done if I was the seer in his place.

Normally, no. But what would you have done, then? His arguments weren't working and he was going to die anyway, so it's not like he was putting himself in any greater danger.

you don't have to have a role proven to you in order to be able to make an educated guess about it and act on it.

True. But the Devil, in my experience, is less useful to the wolves than a Seer is harmful. Admittedly, the value of the former is higher in this because everyone is blind, but still. The odds are in favor of killing townspeople right now, because there are more of them than there are wolves.

Originally Posted by planswalker

since no one starts off knowing anything about anyone, it'll take the seers a damn long time to get networks of any decent size together. instead, we've got to depend on logic and guesswork and reading people's voting patterns and logic. The latter is the one from you I find suspicious.

Again, true. Starting completely blind does tend to make things take a while as far as people getting in contact goes, though it's not that much worse than a normal game for us, since town is always blind.

Originally Posted by planswalker

it is obfuscating, however, to declare that only one possible path of logic could have been taken to reach a certain behavior. Give human creativity more credit than that.

But that is the course most likely to result in my defending FE if I'm a wolf. I'm not saying it's the only way that could possibly happen, just the way that is most likely to occur and still have me defending FE if I'm not Town.

Originally Posted by planswalker

Possible, I'll grant you, but see my arguments below for why this step isn't actually required.

Not required, perhaps. But see above about why it make this whole thing much more likely.

Originally Posted by planswalker

OR, perhaps, he did nothing of the sort and you instead came to the same general conclusion I did.

Again, see above, about why the Seer being dead is more valuable to the wolves than the Devil being alive.

Originally Posted by planswalker

to me, this sounds like a very good argument for why he didn't scry a wolf, which only means he didn't scry a wolf. If I had been playing devil and knew I hadn't scried any wolves they could use for a seer test, I'd have claimed interference instead of either A) revealing a role to the town, thereby helping town or B) lying about someone and giving them an opportunity to counter-claim and inform town.

Since this is MY second game as well, it's not unreasonable at all to assume this was FE's logic.

I don't know about that last bit - you two seem like you think fairly differently - but there are some valid points in there, even if we do seem to be starting from different places.

Originally Posted by planswalker

no.

This argument above sounds like, to me, a wolf doing their best to show off how illogical it is to analyze voting patterns to establish facts this early on. Discouraging town from thinking doesn't sound like a good idea for townies to do.

Excuse me? Do you care to explain where exactly I argue against analyzing voting patterns in general in there, rather than simply trying to prove that the way Ramsus said what he said was an attempt to obfuscate the issue by making it seem like we both knew FE's role when he was lynched?

[planswalker]

Originally Posted by C'nor

Excuse me? Do you care to explain where exactly I argue against analyzing voting patterns in general in there, rather than simply trying to prove that the way Ramsus said what he said was an attempt to obfuscate the issue by making it seem like we both knew FE's role when he was lynched?

I'll grant you that last point, for the most part. What I'd intended to say was that you were implying that ramsus was wrong for having come up with a line of reasoning.

as for the odds, I thought it very unlikely for him to actually be the seer. Like you said, the wolves killing the seer is more valuable than the devil being alive. A wolf claiming seer and hoping to out the real one when he's realized he's already gonna die sounds really useful for team wolf.

same line of reasoning why I was opposed to Grue Bait's seer claim in MLP before it was proven.

[super dark33]

C'nor does look suspiecous.

That is now part of my personality i think, saying suspiecous instead of the proper writing.

[C'nor]

Originally Posted by planswalker

I'll grant you that last point, for the most part. What I'd intended to say was that you were implying that ramsus was wrong for having come up with a line of reasoning.

Ah, alright. Nope, I was objecting to his reasoning, but I didn't mind him having come up with it in the first place.

Originally Posted by planswalker

as for the odds, I thought it very unlikely for him to actually be the seer. Like you said, the wolves killing the seer is more valuable than the devil being alive. A wolf claiming seer and hoping to out the real one when he's realized he's already gonna die sounds really useful for team wolf.

Hm... Point. Though I didn't feel it was all that unlikely for him to be the seer, having gone through getting that as my second (third?) role, and thus knowing that it can be rather tricky to figure out what's a good idea and what isn't.

Originally Posted by planswalker

same line of reasoning why I was opposed to Grue Bait's seer claim in MLP before it was proven.

I wasn't paying too much attention to that one, but didn't that line of reasoning get shot down multiple times?

[planswalker]

true. It was shot down because the seer gave us a testable claim. It was explained to me that town can afford to test a claim to know for sure whether or not he's a wolf.

an untestable claim therefore makes me suspicious.

[C'nor]

Makes sense, then. It's been a while, so that combined with not sleeping last night and my general lack of attention in that one made me miss the details, and it's a pain to go back and dig them up with no way to search for things.

And I was thinking we should for something testable, but I think it's mostly just a matter of differing playstyles at this point; I seem to be placing a higher value on the Seer than you are, and both approaches have their flaws.

[Count Dingdong]

~24 hours left.

Current votes:
C'nor = 3
superdark = 2
Ramsus = 1
Tom the Mime = 1

Need minimum 5 to lynch, or goes to Executioner.

[C'nor]

Superdark, since who can ever tell what side he's on, he's voting for me, and I'd prefer to not be in the lead in the race to the noose.

[Kalrany]

I would enjoy playing this game. Can you please put me down for slot #35?

Also, I noticed that there has been a little bit of roleplaying at the beginning, but it seems to have fallen by the wayside quickly. Since that is what interestes me in this type of game, are we allowed to do that? I have an idea for a personality/character type that I think it would be fun to play around with.

[C'nor]

We are, yes. It's just it keeps dying out... If you like, I'm happy to throw a character together/bring in one of my existing ones for your person to talk to?

[Kalrany]

That would be awesome! I don't know the rules for this, can we just start it whenever or do we have to wait for the narrator introduction?

(FYI: I admit this is my first WW game -- my first online to be frank -- and I will likely ask what appear to be silly questions, but I want to avoid any major faux pas...)

[C'nor]

Well, he's been asking for everyone to join, and it's not like there's an application to fill out or anything that has to meet with narrator approval, so I think we can probably just start. Maybe we can even get it into the narration.

[Count Dingdong]

Originally Posted by Kalrany

That would be awesome! I don't know the rules for this, can we just start it whenever or do we have to wait for the narrator introduction?

(FYI: I admit this is my first WW game -- my first online to be frank -- and I will likely ask what appear to be silly questions, but I want to avoid any major faux pas...)

Can't vote yet but can RP/talk if want. You'll be added as Clueless Newcomer Night 3, can vote Day 4, get role and powers Night 4.

Oh, and down as #35.

[planswalker]

The masons' face man looked out at the village below and shook his head. Their paranoia nearly lynched him the day the gates were open, but things have settled down for now. They caught a traitor in the seer's network, and he'd been dealt with. It disturbs him that the enemy hadn't struck yet. What were they waiting for?

He didn't like it, and he didn't like C'Nor's arguments either. Oh, it's not that they were completely irrational, but something about them just rang false in him. Something about them didn't add up. He fished his house key out of his snazzy yellow pants and went inside for a nap.

[Kalrany]

Well, that is good. OK – here it goes…


A tall dark figure calmly walked into the village by the main gate, a quick light step and somewhat graceful movements marked this newcomer as female. She carried a large pack, her head swinging back and forth as she looked about, trying to get some idea as to where she needed to go. Unfortunately, with no prior experience in the locale, it didn’t help matters. Her gait slowed as she walked further into town, her eyes overlooking the town square. The gallows stood prominently at the center. She seemed to falter for a moment, casting a look around. There were several individuals, a few moving with purpose, others appearing to be waiting for some… thing? one? time? Perhaps the stragglers of a gathering?

The women paused, casting another look around. “Nope, no library,” she muttered quietly. One last look at the gallows, a slight shake of the head, she then took a deep breath. Squaring her shoulders, she fixed a look on one of individuals waiting. She stepped forward to her random choice, and interrupted hisher thoughts.

“Forgive me, but I am not sure where I am headed. Can you please direct me to whomever here deals primarily in books?” She shifted her heavy bag to draw attention to it. “I am hoping to discuss a bit of business with… er…” She trailed off, blushing, then deftly pulled her pack around to drop it to the ground with a thud. Opening the flap, she fished out a small, well worn set of papers. Beneath are a number of old books. She sighed again as she straightened. “I don’t actually have a name to contact. Can you direct me to the village bookseller? Or, if there is none, the most likely place to find someone with a large collection?”

Will this work? If so, have fun with your interpretation of my little character... I figured a bit lost would explain away any in-character errors...

[Matthias2207]

Originally Posted by super dark33

C'nor does look suspiecous.

That is now part of my personality i think, saying suspiecous instead of the proper writing.

*suspiecos
One doesn't simply define his own personality.