Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Day 10)

[Fleeing Coward]

Originally Posted by Freshmeat_

I find it interesting that you're so keen on swaying the public opinion towards your cause, especially after you've so boldly revealed yourself to be a rebel. Surely all of this wouldn't be necessary if you already had the peasant vote under your control?

If the loyalists peasants decide to follow you, we'll just kill all suspected rebel peasants (and if they vote with you, they do run the risk of being suspected)... and then you'll probably still kill off the remaining peasants to both try and obtain the peasant vote regardless and to try and back up your earlier threat.
The result? Both the loyalists and the rebels end up trying to get the remaining peasants killed. How does that fit in with 'survival'?

The fastest way to win this game is to start killing rebels with both votes. I can assure the loyalists that as long as they stick to the plan, none of them will get lynched. Which brings me to the obvious point in regards to survival - the longer this game drags out, the more people will die. In the peasants' case: the higher the chance you lose.
If we can get two rebels to die every day from now, all the peasants need to do is survive 3 or 4 nights. If they don't, they'll need to survive 3 or 4 days and nights while betting everything on the rebel leader surviving until night 9 and choosing them to be recruited. Oh, and if the rebel leader doesn't choose them, or can't (because he died in the meantime), the loyalist peasants would still need to survive until the end of the game, so add a couple of risky days and nights on top of that as well. From a logical point of view, it just isn't worth it.

I'll just come out with the numbers since Freshmeat is trying to get you guys killed for no good reason. We now have a 5-3 majority in the peasent vote thanks to our recruitment last night (was 4-4 before the recruitment but we decided to openly reveal ourselves to increase chances of getting our recruit to agree) but we still would like to recruit one more peasent to speed up the process of eliminating the nobles which is why we're offering the peasents one last chance of recruitment.
Freshmeat says the quickest way to win for you is 2 lynches a day but he knows as well as I do that we wouldn't be revealing ourselves at this point if we're not certain of victory so his point is irrevelent.
If the 3 remaining loyalist peasents decide to vote with Freshmeat, we'll kill them one after another in the next 3 nights thus 0 survival chances and a guaranteed loss (naturally they won't get lynched since we'll be lynching nobles but that should be obvious by now).
On the other hand, if they all decide to vote with us, we will ensure that one of the 3 will still be alive on the third night and be offered a chance to join us. Sure, that means they only have a 1 in 3 chance of actually living but that's still better than 0.

[Fin]

How can you say we were born into this life? When our Emperor, the last true descendant of the great Crystall Myr took the throne to this kingdom, he did it through deed! He took this throne because his fight was better than the rest and we were there. He took this throne because he took the fight to the last and then back again. I remember striking an arrow from the air moments before it would have struck the emeperor, he looked at me wth astonished eyes and that was when he told me that I would forever be his most trusted guard! So we are not a rulership by birth but one by deed. And those of you still loyal to the cause of Castaras know this, you have given up the fight once, you will do so again!

((Don't listen to the bit about night killing peasants they are gonna try and night kill the emperor if I die today, if I live I can prevent that from happening and try and bane some peasants))

[Fleeing Coward]

So you're saying just because he was born of royal blood and had been able to convince some soldiers that they should follow him, he has the right to crush any humble peasent who may in fact make a much better ruler? The fact is, you follow him because of his linege, not because he is a better ruler.

((Do you really think we're fools? We already know all your roles and we know that even with you dead, there are still other guards. What it comes down to is whether we kill 3 peasents in 3 nights while lynching the emperor and heir during the day or whether we show mercy and kill 2 and recruit 1 peasent in 3 nights while lynching the emperor and heir. Either way, your fate is sealed today Fin regardless of whether or not the loyalist peasents choose to follow you and Freshmeat))

[Fin]

The claims of this emperor are no weaker than that of Castaras with whom your own sympathies lie. They are however stronger seeing as he won!

((If my fate, and fate of my comrades is no longer in our hands then why bother with offering your 'mercy' to the peasants. They are nothing to you now!))

[Fleeing Coward]

But we don't seek to place one of Castaras' on the throne either. He has shown that he too cannot be trusted. We're here to overhaul the system and introduce something known as a democracy.

((Since we've technically won already barring some unfortunate autolynches, I see no harm in sharing our victory with another peasent. I've never liked to kill more than is necessary and so am offering one peasent a lifeline.))

[Fin]

Gah! You can't bring in a democracy, what'll happen to Rebellion V! - Relax Fourth Wall t'was but a scratch!

((Peasants, please do not allow him to divide you like that. There are three good ones left according to FCs calculations so just remeber the musketeers!))

[Fleeing Coward]

Sure we can, you just need to change king to President/Prime Minister, the heir into the Vice and the rebel leader as the leader of the opposition in Rebellion V - More than a scratch now.

((Do I need to remind the peasents that it'll be 3 very dead musketeers if they follow Fin?))

[Fin]

Then we may as well call it Election I - Its starting to crack!

((Musketeers -Yes we are calling them Musketeers now!- remember he can't prove without a role-call that he really does have peasant control so do what is right, stay loyal. If we are wrong then at least you will still have your pride!))

[Fleeing Coward]

I like the sound of a Rebellion spinoff - Definately cracked now.

((Between the votes, our lucky scries and some other sources we're certain about our majority. Remember, lossing with pride is still lossing.))

[Fin]

To hell with it I'm putting my foot through it - Would you be interested in co-narrating such a venture

((Don't let FC turn you into savages only one of the three would get killed the others just pawns that sold out there comrades. Plus he can't prove he got a successful recruitment last night this could all be smoke and mirrors we could still win as loyalists. He can say anything about a majority because he doesn't have to prove it! Also voting against me puts you in a 3 in 5 chance of being lynched by the nobles over the next three days as a suspected rebel))

[Fleeing Coward]

I don't see a wall, do you? Definately interested, I've always wanted to try my hand at co-narrating one of these

((Rather a living savage that won than a dead citizen that lost. If any loyalist wants to test the peasent majority, we'd be more than happy to give them an extensive tour of the city tonight))

[Freshmeat]

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

I'll just come out with the numbers since Freshmeat is trying to get you guys killed for no good reason. We now have a 5-3 majority in the peasent vote thanks to our recruitment last night (was 4-4 before the recruitment but we decided to openly reveal ourselves to increase chances of getting our recruit to agree) but we still would like to recruit one more peasent to speed up the process of eliminating the nobles which is why we're offering the peasents one last chance of recruitment.

You're claiming that there are 8 peasants left then? I know for a fact that that's a lie.
Only 14 players remain. If you substract the Emperor, Heir, Imperial Guard, Captain of the Guard, Royal Investigator and the two court nobles we know of from that, less than 8 people remain. So even if all of these are peasants, that still means your claim that there are 8 peasants is an outright lie.

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

Freshmeat says the quickest way to win for you is 2 lynches a day but he knows as well as I do that we wouldn't be revealing ourselves at this point if we're not certain of victory so his point is irrevelent.

If you're so certain of your victory, why hasn't the game stopped then?
If you're so certain of your victory, then why lie about the number of peasants?

As for your reveal - you pretty much admitted to being a rebel before the lynch yesterday. That is, before you could even know whether your recruitment offer would get accepted or not. It's not a matter of you being certain of your victory. It was actually just incautiousness.

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

If the 3 remaining loyalist peasents decide to vote with Freshmeat, we'll kill them one after another in the next 3 nights thus 0 survival chances and a guaranteed loss.

Since I know you're lying about the numbers, this is irrelevant.
If you actually don't have the peasant vote, you can't lynch the baner. If you can't lynch the baner, some of these people can be protected. There's also the matter of you finding them now that your rebel spy is dead, but, for the sake of argument, let's assume you do. You still can't kill all of them before the last rebel dies, so - at least - one is bound to survive.
Those are certainly better odds that risking death by daily lynching and night-killing, all on the off-chance that the rebel leader survives until night 9 and also precisely happens to pick you to get recruited.

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

Since we've technically won already barring some unfortunate autolynches, I see no harm in sharing our victory with another peasent. I've never liked to kill more than is necessary and so am offering one peasent a lifeline

So all of today's posts are just because you want to save the whales a peasant? Plausibility is low.


That's all there is to it. I'm not going to type up yet another thesis where we refute eachother's points back and forth. I'm willing to entertain the idea that the rebels might have a peasant vote majority by now, but I find it really strange why FC is so adamant about getting the neutrals on his side and why he's resorting to lies to do so.

[Fin]

In fact, who the hell is 'Zeb The Troll' anyway I think he has propergated the lies about the wall! - Its settled then Election I the spinoff will start shortly after the end of Rebellion IV

((Remember until the last one dies, the nobles will be killing a peasant each day so you will probably die if ally yourselves with the rebels, whereas if you stay righteous and vote with us you may find FC is bluffing and win))

[Shishnarfne]

Well, I would've tried to swing the peasant vote against FC, myself... at least we're more certain he's a rebel...

But, I'll point at Zar Peter...

Where are your rebels, sushi salesman? Are they afraid to show themselves?

One loyal noble or two could point at Zar Peter to try and throw off their counting... see if we can scare 'em off of bandwagoning...

[Mordokai]

((Damn it, you had to kill me just before the fun started 'Tis not fair, it really isn't!))

[Fleeing Coward]

Congratulations Shish, you've just volunteered to go on our night tour. The rebels will show themselves when the time is right.

Freshmeat: So once again, it's your word against mine. I count 8 peasents but you claim there's more than 6 nobles left. Let's just see who is right shall we since this is pretty much open warfare now with no one hiding.

We know everyone that counts Shishnarfne, bandwagoning nobles won't scare us at all.

[Shishnarfne]

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

Congratulations Shish, you've just volunteered to go on our night tour. The rebels will show themselves when the time is right.

Freshmeat: So once again, it's your word against mine. I count 8 peasents but you claim there's more than 6 nobles left. Let's just see who is right shall we since this is pretty much open warfare now with no one hiding.

We know everyone that counts Shishnarfne, bandwagoning nobles won't scare us at all.

Hey, look, I'm not scared of getting offed... I'd rather go down fighting, trying to help my side win, than chicken out and hope the other side will have pity on me and offer me a hand to joining their win condition...

And I don't believe you when you say that you control the peasant vote. If you were certain of it, you wouldn't be advertising for recruits: you'd just kill off dissenters. But since you're not, that means that there's a good chance that if the loyal peasants keep their backbones, that they can still hold this vote against you.

And that's what I'm banking on. (Just one request: make the kill interesting, I want to at least enjoy reading my own death scene.)

[Mustiado]

Fleeing Coward, you made the mistake of revealing yourself as a rebel, perhaps before the game was decided. And Rebel Scum don't live long in my sight.

[Fleeing Coward]

Originally Posted by Shishnarfne

Hey, look, I'm not scared of getting offed... I'd rather go down fighting, trying to help my side win, than chicken out and hope the other side will have pity on me and offer me a hand to joining their win condition...

And I don't believe you when you say that you control the peasant vote. If you were certain of it, you wouldn't be advertising for recruits: you'd just kill off dissenters. But since you're not, that means that there's a good chance that if the loyal peasants keep their backbones, that they can still hold this vote against you.

And that's what I'm banking on. (Just one request: make the kill interesting, I want to at least enjoy reading my own death scene.)

Well, we'll find out soon won't we? I'm just going to have to enjoy watching all the action as a ghost after today.

[Penguinsushi]

The Penguin points at Fleeing Coward in the vain hopes that, if we manage to execute him, the bantering will stop.

...that, and he keeps trying to serve me wrapped in rice...which should have tipped me off, i guess...heh...

~PS

[evnafets]

Lets just lynch FC and shut him up. Arguing about who is going to win based on what people think roles are is rather meaningless. Lets just play the game out.

The nobles are taking care of FC, so I suppose:
evnafets points at Fin

[Zar Peter]

Somehow I can't follow Freshmeat's logic... Zar Peter is a noble so he's a rebel... in my book the rebels are killing the nobles. And I don't like to be killed.
Fleeing Coward, you are a rebel, you want to kill me, don't you?

[purple gelatinous cube o' Doom]

Zar Peter, you may not be able to follow his logic, but how about mine. You were one of a handful of people to vote for Gwyn to be lynched yesterday, that makes you very suspicious in my book.

[Fin]

Originally Posted by Shishnarfne

Hey, look, I'm not scared of getting offed... I'd rather go down fighting, trying to help my side win, than chicken out and hope the other side will have pity on me and offer me a hand to joining their win condition...

And I don't believe you when you say that you control the peasant vote. If you were certain of it, you wouldn't be advertising for recruits: you'd just kill off dissenters. But since you're not, that means that there's a good chance that if the loyal peasants keep their backbones, that they can still hold this vote against you.

And that's what I'm banking on. (Just one request: make the kill interesting, I want to at least enjoy reading my own death scene.)

Hearing this Fin looks at Shishnarfne with pride...

I admire your courage if we win this consider yourself an honorary member of the Imperial Guard. Plus it looks like FC's hold is slipping just one person voted his way, and that was him.

[Fleeing Coward]

I see the fool has found a friend to join him in the afterlife. The rebels will come, there's nothing better than giving false hope to you pitiful nobles then snatching it all away

[Aemoh]

*points at Fleeing Coward*

[Szilard]

Fleeing Coward is a traitor and a part of the rebel alliance, take him away!

[Zeb The Troll]

!! FLASH !! FLASH !! FLASH !!

A grievous oversight on my part has just been brought to my attention and this needs to be cleared up.

This game is not an Alpha game. This iteration was never intended to be. However, I missed changing the Rebel Leader block in the rules as I was updating them with changes from the last game. I apologize for any confusion this may have caused.

Carry on.

[DarkLightDragon]

*point at Zar Peter*

[easyname]

Death be for you, Fin.