Rebellion IV - Death of the Lich King (Day 10)

[Gwyn chan 'r Gwyll]

((because it saves your A$$?))

[Szilard]

More of a why not kind of thing, in fact, Why not? is my third motto.

[evnafets]

I have two reasons for believing Freshmeat is lying to us

1 - I am a loyal peasant. If he says I scried as otherwise he is lying. I would tend to think more that I haven't been scried and he is just pushing his luck.
2 - He originally wanted to lynch Szilard. I believe from analysing the voting that there is a good chance Szilard is the Emporer.

Reasoning? On day 2, 3 confirmed nobles (now dead) pointed at easyname.
In order to beat that the Emporer MUST have voted to lynch Emporer Demonking that day.

Those who voted EDK:
Dr. Bath (peasant gossip)
Fleeing Coward
Gwyn ap Nud
Pwenet (noble)
Szilard

One of these people must be the emporer. Szilard is the only one who also pointed at Atreyu on day 1. Voting since then seems to bear out that he is the Emporer.

What Freshmeat didn't tell you, is that I am the one (via PM) who persuaded him NOT to lynch Szilard. So he believes me enough not to lynch Szilard, but not enough to call his dogs off me.

He tried to drum up a scare tactic saying "we need to find a rebel today otherwise its game over". I don't see how.

As he himself has since pointed out, the baner and the Emporer yet live.
The rebels can't win until all of the NOBLES are dead - nothing to do with even numbers like a standard "werewolf" game.
There are still the Emporer, Heir, Baner, and Noble "Inquisitor/Spy" out there.

I think it is more likely that the rebels would try to get their alternative win condition "Have a rebel heir succeed the emporer" - which makes his other lynch target even more suspicious.


Freshmeat is using a number of tactics
- Lying about a scry. I am a loyal peasant, and would scry as such.
- Trying to lynch the emporer (I am 90% certain Szilard IS the emporer)
- Scare tactics saying "follow me or else we lose!"
- He changed his vote from Szilard to FC only after I told him I thought Szilard was the emporer, and thats why I was suspicious of him.

[Szilard]

There is stil the 10%. I don't really get how these people keep track and guess who's who. I guess if I actually tried I would know who everyone is since I'm really smart, most likely smartest in my school,(except maybe Jeff or Willie, but they don't have cool names.) Thanks for spelling my name right though.

[Fleeing Coward]

Originally Posted by Freshmeat_

I'd like the peasants to vote for Fleeing Coward instead, not Szilard.
Once again, I'd like to mention that I know the royal investigator, the masons, the fool, the emperor, the heir (I assume) and the captain of the guard. If I knew all of these people, and was so close to winning, why would I even bother drawing attention to myself? If I hadn't been scried recently (i.e. before I could potentially have been recruited), how would I even have come into contact with any of these people in the first place?

So you're saying in the space of a day, you've managed to put together every single important non rebel role on nothing more than a claim that you've been scried, in an alpha game, with recruitment.
Seriously, why would every important role be foolish enough to contact you based on nothing more than your word in a game where the rebel leader scries as a loyalist peasent and there is recruitment to take into account?

I've got 8 unknowns on my list. If we assume that there are 7 rebels, and we go crazy and assume that not one, but two of them have actually infiltrated this network, that still means we've got a 5/8 chance of hitting a rebel here. That's nice. If we go ahead and actually lynch two unknowns, it's even nicer, and will only increase our chances of getting a rebel today.

If there are indeed 7 rebels as you claim, lynching me and evnafets would reduce the player base down to 14 players, less a kill tonight it's down to 13. That means that the rebels will have more than half the players and at that point simply cannot lose.

The way this game is won for the rebels is by them gaining control of the peasent lynch vote - the minute that happens it's game over as people have seen in Rebellion 2, not as Freshmeat_claims by killing all the nobles. Now evnafets has claimed to be a loyalist villager, and I'm going to claim such as well, by lynching both of us, even if the rebels don't have control of the peasent lynch, they will after the night. Is there really so many people who'd blindly follow Freshmeat on nothing more than his word that he isn't a rebel?

These are odds I'm willing to play with. Both FC and evnafets are players a rebel leader is likely to choose for his team anyway.

And which alpha wouldn't want to recruit you as a rebel? You're a perfectly capable analyst and only a fool wouldn't want you on their team. Considering how early wolves have killed you in other games (Mafia, Discworld), I'd think the rule of Shadow should be applied to you in cases like this.

Either way, the risk is too high not to lynch two separate people here.

This can be no further from the truth, lynching 2 peeple who have both claimed to be loyalist peasents is about as risky as it gets, it effectively gives control of the peasent lynch bandwagon to the rebels which combined with the night kill = game over.

As such, I'll point at Freshmeat. Even if the court investigator has scried him, there is still the chance of him been the rebel leader and getting 2 peasent loyalists lynched by abusing that trust is just the sort of thing that I would do if I were in that position.

EDIT: One last thing: Is it just me or is it awfully convenient that by doing things Freshmeat's way, everyone will know whether every single player is a peasent or noble? Perfect for say ... a rebel spy to go through the list of nobles to scry and kill on while as the rebel will have full control of the peasent lynch wagon. And all it'd cost is a single rebel leader the next day in exchange for the emperor who'd die to the rebel peasent lynch bandwagon. And now, add to that if the heir had been recruited on day 3 or gets recruited on day 6 (tonight I believe), we all know what that would mean...

[evnafets]

Originally Posted by Szilard

I also heed Freshmeats wisdom and point at evanfets.

lol

Now look whos misspelling names...

[Freshmeat]

Well, this is quite the interesting discussion. Hm, this might be a prudent moment to reveal that I'm the Heir, even though that's going to make things more difficult (and possibly impossible) for me later on. I don't think I'll get a chance like today again, but it might be better to prioritize a couple of things here first: namely avoiding losing altogether.

Originally Posted by evnafets

He tried to drum up a scare tactic saying "we need to find a rebel today otherwise its game over". I don't see how.

As he himself has since pointed out, the baner and the Emporer yet live.
The rebels can't win until all of the NOBLES are dead - nothing to do with even numbers like a standard "werewolf" game.
There are still the Emporer, Heir, Baner, and Noble "Inquisitor/Spy" out there.

I think that when 7 out of 16 players are rebels, right before a recruitment night, there is, at the very least, some cause for alarm. Even if the rebels don't win right away, they'll probably have the peasant vote under their control by then. Which means they can kill 2 people (day lynch/peasant vote and night kill) for every 1 we kill (day lynch/noble vote), which will also make us lose.

Alternatively, we could gamble on the rebels only being with 6 at the moment. Does anyone want to try that? I think not.

Assuming they're with 7 (keep in mind that this is an assumption):

1. We lynch an innocent today. The rebels recruit someone tonight. 8/14 (loyalists lose)
2. We lynch a rebel today. The rebels recruit someone tonight. 7/14 (loyalists potentially lose)
3. We lynch an innocent and a rebel today. The rebels recruit someone tonight. 7/13 (loyalists lose).
4. We lynch two rebels today. The rebels recruit someone tonight. 6/13 (close, but acceptable).

That means we'd have to either kill one rebel today instead, or two (but only if we know the other one is in fact a rebel). However, we probably want to go for two targets regardless. You'll see why a couple of paragraphs below.

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

Seriously, why would every important role be foolish enough to contact you based on nothing more than your word in a game where the rebel leader scries as a loyalist peasent and there is recruitment to take into account?

Because I haven't been scried a loyalist peasant. And because I couldn't have been recruited in the meantime. Again, if I'm lying, let's see if someone is willing to disprove it. I'll be waiting.
Also, they didn't contact me. I contacted them. And some roles (such as the royal investigator) I already know for two days, rather than one.

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

And which alpha wouldn't want to recruit you as a rebel? You're a perfectly capable analyst and only a fool wouldn't want you on their team. Considering how early wolves have killed you in other games (Mafia, Discworld), I'd think the rule of Shadow should be applied to you in cases like this.

Why they wouldn't want me on their team? Interestingly enough, you gave the answer yourself by mentioning Shadow. Why wasn't he chosen by the rebel leader? Simple. It's too obvious. You want a team of people that have some experience with this game, yet can fly under people's radars as well. The worst thing that can happen is for your fellow wolves to get scried on the first night and die on the second one.

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

This can be no further from the truth, lynching 2 peeple who have both claimed to be loyalist peasents is about as risky as it gets, it effectively gives control of the peasent lynch bandwagon to the rebels which combined with the night kill = game over.

That's actually a completely valid point.

I believe I may know an answer though, due to some numbercrunching. It's not entirely conclusive yet, however, so bear with me. (on a quick, unrelated note, let's lay off the voting until we resolve this).

There are 16 players the moment. At least 7 of these people are nobles, while at least 7 are peasants. I'm not sure about the last two people yet, though it looks like they're respectively one noble and one peasant as well.
So let's stick with 8 nobles and 8 peasants for now.

Now, I know six nobles with power roles, who couldn't have possibly started the game as a rebel. Even if we factor the recruitment in from the third day, that means that at least five noble votes are still loyalists. This will be important to keep in mind later on.
If the rebels controlled the peasant vote, they'd have already won, so we can assume that this is not the case yet. As such, out of the 8 peasants we've estimated this village to contain, 4 people (at most) could be rebels. Because at least five out of eight nobles are still loyalist, that'd mean two court nobles and one noble power role are rebels on the noble side of things.
Unless there are really six rebels, then it could simply be 2 rebel nobles or 3 rebel peasants, but probably not both.

To make a long story short... if there are seven rebels (which seems like the most likely theory to me), then all court nobles that are still alive at this point are rebels. Interesting.
There should be two court nobles at the moment. Zar Peter is one of them. I don't know the other.
Therefore, Zar Peter is almost assuredly a rebel. Only if there were six rebels at this point, rather than seven, could he still be innocent. Even then, the exact setup would have to be 4 rebel peasants and 2 rebel nobles, rather than 3 rebel peasants and 3 rebel nobles. And then there's still a 2/3 chance that he's a rebel. He'd also be a good choice to be handpicked by a potential rebel leader.
So it seems we've found one rebel noble so far. That's nice.


However, I'm afraid we must still go after the peasants today. Either three or four peasants are rebels at this point. As soon as the rebels control the peasant vote they win, so all they'd need to do is recruit one single peasant, and tonight is a recruitment night. As such,at least one rebel peasant must die today if there are six rebels, and two if there are seven rebels.

Might as well post this bit already and think some more on this.

[Fleeing Coward]

Ok, guess all this makes sense, espeically why you avoided voting on the first 2 days but this still leaves one question:
How do we know you're not a rebel heir or going to get recruited tonight? I see no faster way for the rebels to win than to lynch 2 loyalist peasent today and then lynch the emperor tommorrow.

[Freshmeat]

At this point, it's basically impossible for me to win as a Heir anyway. Either I made my move today, or not at all*.

(* which isn't to say I don't have a backup plan, but that can wait for now)

And it seems that even by day 5 we're already in the kind of situation where a small 'lynching detour' (i.e. killing the Emperor rather than a rebel) has the potential to make the loyalists lose the game. Or is it? (see below)

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

How do we know you're not a rebel heir or going to get recruited tonight? I see no faster way for the rebels to win than to lynch 2 loyalist peasent today and then lynch the emperor tommorrow.

You see no faster way? That's interesting.
What makes you so certain that we won't lose already if we get two loyalists lynched today? What makes you so certain we still wouldn't lose if someone were recruited? Or if we'd lynch the Emperor as well while we're at it?

Please - elaborate.

[Zeb The Troll]

((Wow, it's been a while since I've witnessed this level of analysis in a game. If I were a player I'd be totally bedaffled at this point. ))

[Fleeing Coward]

Originally Posted by Freshmeat_

You see no faster way? That's interesting.
What makes you so certain that we won't lose already if we get two loyalists lynched today? What makes you so certain we still wouldn't lose if someone were recruited? Or if we'd lynch the Emperor as well while we're at it?

Please - elaborate.

I'm saying, if it turns out that evnafets is indeed a loyalist peasent, then there isn't a better situation that the rebels could have gotten themselves in since by that point, even if they have 4 rebel peasents and just 2 rebel nobles which is your best case scenario, you'd be giving them peasent lynch control assuming 6 peasents remain.
If they gain control of the peasent lynch wagon, they just have to lynch the emperor tommorrow with their peasent lynch control and put you on the throne to win.
Basically, your plan now gives you and the rebels the perfect opportunity to win if evnafets turns out to be loyalist peasent as well. On the other hand, if instead we target a noble or 2 today, even if neither turns out to be a rebel, we're still in with a chance as the emperor's vote counts as 3 and the rebels will most liekly still not have peasent lynch control.

Basically, it's a matter of putting your eggs all in one basket hoping that evnafets turns out to be a rebel and a peasent or hedging your bets and targetting suspected noble rebels which wouldn't lose the loyalist the game even if your suspiscions turn out to be wrong.

[Zar Peter]

Originally Posted by Zeb The Troll

((Wow, it's been a while since I've witnessed this level of analysis in a game. If I were a player I'd be totally bedaffled at this point. ))

You sir, have just described my current state of mind. Thank you for expressing it.

[evnafets]

Oho! So NOW the truth starts coming out of Freshmeats mouth.
He admits he is the heir - which explains the reason why he wanted Szilard lynched in the first place - knowing full well he is the emporer.

You see why I like open discussions over PM messages? Eventually the truth does come out.

Hows this for a scenario?
The rebels recruited the court inqusitor on night 3.
The inquisitor or the rebel spy scries Freshmeat as the heir, and someone contacts Freshmeat to get him on side.
Of course noone has come out saying that Freshmeat hasn't been scried by the inquisitor - he has! Its just that its the Inquisitor who is on the side of the rebels.

Today they just had to get us to lynch the emporer and one other person, recruit the heir overnight and the game was in the bag for the rebels - they win regardless of how many nobles were alive. Finessed right under the noses of the guardsmen.

I am a loyal peasant. Freshmeat said I scried as a rebel Peasant.
Either Freshmeat is lying or the Inquisitor is lying to him.
The proof will be on my body it seems, because right now I have both the Emporer AND the Heir pointing at me.

I urge everyone to think for themselves. At least through my arguments I managed to prevent the Emporer from being lynched, so it won't be a rebel win at the coronation.

[Fleeing Coward]

One problem with your scenario: if the court investigator had indeed been recruited and they had made an offer to Freshmeat, we're screwed either way since he apparently knows the Captain of the Guards and presumably the rest of the guards for his so called safe list and would most likely give the list to them should he be recruited.

Going over his first claim:

In short: we've found (scried) a rebel, and I've also found another person who claimed to have a role I know he doesn't have.

This was his first reason for lynching evnafets and Szilard and now exposed as an obvious lie. As evnafets pointed out, that would have ended the game tonight had he succeeded with Freshmeat's crowning as rebel heir.

Once evnafets pointed out that Szilard was the Emperor he switches to the next best chance the rebels have - switching so that another loyalist peasent gets lynched - namely me, which would give the rebels complete control of the peasent lynch if they don't already have it.

Now since the rebels couldn't be able to have recruited both Freshmeat and the court investigator, I assume it is indeed the court investigator that has been recruited. As such, there is no need to lynch Freshmeat yet until the rebels attempt to recruit again, should that happen, we can then kill Freshmeat if needed.

Of course, at this point Freshmeat is in a no win situation but at least he won't die as long as he remains loyal so there is no need to lynch him unless the rebels attempt to recruit again. As such I'll switch my vote to one of the first peasents that followed his lead and my suspect for the real rebel peasent:
The sushi salesman points at Gwyn_ap_Nud

As for lynching 2 people, that is the one thing I agree with Freshmeat on, if we continue lynching only one person, the rebels will win regardless.
I suggest that the nobles also switch their votes to someone who joined with Freshmeat on what now has proven to be a lie - someone such as Shishnarfne.

[DarkLightDragon]

*point at evnafets*

[Fin]

So many arguments! So much analysis! My brain, my poor poor brain

Point at Evnafets

[Freshmeat]

Originally Posted by evnafets

Hows this for a scenario?
The rebels recruited the court inqusitor on night 3.
The inquisitor or the rebel spy scries Freshmeat as the heir, and someone contacts Freshmeat to get him on side.
Of course noone has come out saying that Freshmeat hasn't been scried by the inquisitor - he has! Its just that its the Inquisitor who is on the side of the rebels.

I sort of expected this theory to crop up eventually. Still, if I had been recruited on the third night, how come so many people have pointed at me since then? Szilard, Zompie Pixie, Mustiado, Fleeing Coward, Fin, Gwyn ap Nud, DLD... Both times it were bandwagons that nearly got me killed. Are you saying that *none* of these people are rebels? For this to make sense, the royal investigator would also need to have been recruited, and it'd require everything to depend entirely on whether the rebels would decide to recruit me tonight or not. In this case, the most simple answer is the correct one: ever since I was scried, I couldn't have been recruited yet.

Also as, FC has already pointed out:

Spoiler

One problem with your scenario: if the court investigator had indeed been recruited and they had made an offer to Freshmeat, we're screwed either way since he apparently knows the Captain of the Guards and presumably the rest of the guards for his so called safe list and would most likely give the list to them should he be recruited.

If I was a rebel and had access to all of this information, and if we can conclude from that that the rebels would win anyway from that point on, why would I even bother writing all of this up if I could settle for a villainous plot exposition instead? As a matter of fact, the court investigator knows as much as I do, so the same applies to him. If he's a rebel, he knows everything that needs to be known.

Originally Posted by evnafets

Today they just had to get us to lynch the emporer and one other person, recruit the heir overnight and the game was in the bag for the rebels - they win regardless of how many nobles were alive. Finessed right under the noses of the guardsmen.

The heir has nothing to do with it. If we lose two loyalists and any player gets recruited it's safe to to assume we lose.

Originally Posted by evnafets

I urge everyone to think for themselves. At least through my arguments I managed to prevent the Emporer from being lynched, so it won't be a rebel win at the coronation.

Your arguments had nothing to do with it, really. There's no point in succeeding the Emperor if the rebels are likely to win before my coronation. It's just a matter of priority.

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

I'm saying, if it turns out that evnafets is indeed a loyalist peasent, then there isn't a better situation that the rebels could have gotten themselves in since by that point, even if they have 4 rebel peasents and just 2 rebel nobles which is your best case scenario, you'd be giving them peasent lynch control assuming 6 peasents remain.

That's right. If we're wrong, we're in trouble. However, if we refuse to kill a peasant today, chances are good we'll also be in trouble.

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

Basically, your plan now gives you and the rebels the perfect opportunity to win if evnafets turns out to be loyalist peasent as well. On the other hand, if instead we target a noble or 2 today, even if neither turns out to be a rebel, we're still in with a chance as the emperor's vote counts as 3 and the rebels will most liekly still not have peasent lynch control.

Since the Emperor has a noble vote and can't influence the peasant vote whatsoever, I fail to see your point. If four peasants out of eight are rebels, all they have to do is kill or recruit one peasant tonight to achieve a majority vote and win. If there are three peasants out of eight, all they've got to do is recruit one to achieve a majority vote and win.
In this kind of scenario, the Emperor is a complete non-factor.

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

Basically, it's a matter of putting your eggs all in one basket hoping that evnafets turns out to be a rebel and a peasent or hedging your bets and targetting suspected noble rebels which wouldn't lose the loyalist the game even if your suspiscions turn out to be wrong.

If I had the choice, I'd target the rebel nobles all the way.
To me, it just seems safer to go after the peasants instead, because they must be close to to reaching a peasant majority vote by now, and my guess is that if a peasant gets recruited tonight, the vote will be swung in their favor.

[Fleeing Coward]

Originally Posted by Freshmeat_

I sort of expected this theory to crop up eventually. Still, if I had been recruited on the third night, how come so many people have pointed at me since then? Szilard, Zompie Pixie, Mustiado, Fleeing Coward, Fin, Gwyn ap Nud, DLD... Both times it were bandwagons that nearly got me killed. Are you saying that *none* of these people are rebels? For this to make sense, the royal investigator would also need to have been recruited, and it'd require everything to depend entirely on whether the rebels would decide to recruit me tonight or not. In this case, the most simple answer is the correct one: ever since I was scried, I couldn't have been recruited yet.

If I was a rebel and had access to all of this information, and if we can conclude from that that the rebels would win anyway from that point on, why would I even bother writing all of this up if I could settle for a villainous plot exposition instead? As a matter of fact, the court investigator knows as much as I do, so the same applies to him. If he's a rebel, he knows everything that needs to be known.

It's always more satisfying to win with a big finish, had you suceeded with your plans to get Szilard killed, it would have been that big finish.

That's right. If we're wrong, we're in trouble. However, if we refuse to kill a peasant today, chances are good we'll also be in trouble.

So your solution is to kill 2 peasents and just hand the game over to the rebels? My suspiscions are still that you worked with them.

Since the Emperor has a noble vote and can't influence the peasant vote whatsoever, I fail to see your point. If four peasants out of eight are rebels, all they have to do is kill or recruit one peasant tonight to achieve a majority vote and win. If there are three peasants out of eight, all they've got to do is recruit one to achieve a majority vote and win.
In this kind of scenario, the Emperor is a complete non-factor.

Actually, the Emperor plays a big role, as long as he lives now that we know who he is, the only way the rebels can kill him is bandwagoning against him but that'd expose every rebel peasent for the nobles to kill.

[Freshmeat]

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

So your solution is to kill 2 peasents and just hand the game over to the rebels? My suspiscions are still that you worked with them.

After I've explained time and again why it's the most logical choice you still insist on saying it'll hand the game over to the rebels?

I'm sure we can agree that the rebels must be close to reaching a majority peasant vote, right?
We can also agree that, considering that they can recruit someone tonight, it's possible they will have that majority by tomorrow morning, and will then win.
Therefore, we must now cut down on the number of rebel peasants.

That's all there is to it, really.

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

Actually, the Emperor plays a big role, as long as he lives now that we know who he is, the only way the rebels can kill him is bandwagoning against him but that'd expose every rebel peasent for the nobles to kill.

Of course he plays a big, if not huge role, but when it comes to a peasant vote he has nothing to say, since his vote is tallied as a noble. Hence why it's a complete non-factor if his vote counts as three or even more than that, since a majority peasant vote will get him killed anyway.


Since Zar Peter hasn't even tried denying the charge, that further seems to confirm that he's a rebel indeed. The logic that marked him as such seemed sound as well. From there on out, we can conclude that a couple of other people aren't rebels, or were at least not part of the oriignal rebel crew (since the people in question still could've been recruited at a later point in time). Which means there are at least 4 rebels out of a list of 7 now, and we'll need to kill at least one rebel peasant and possibly two of that list.
*ponders*

[Fleeing Coward]

Originally Posted by Freshmeat_

After I've explained time and again why it's the most logical choice you still insist on saying it'll hand the game over to the rebels?

I'm sure we can agree that the rebels must be close to reaching a majority peasant vote, right?
We can also agree that, considering that they can recruit someone tonight, it's possible they will have that majority by tomorrow morning, and will then win.
Therefore, we must now cut down on the number of rebel peasants.

That's all there is to it, really.

Yep, I know I'm a loyalist and evnafets was the one that pointed out that Szilard was the emperor when you tried to him lynched with your lie so I can only assume that he is more likely than not innocent which would mean that you would be handing the lynch power to the rebels rather than hindering them. And by the voting, I can see that you've got an iron grip on those on your "safe list". Congratulations on getting it all to work but I look forward to saying I told you so when this ends

Of course he plays a big, if not huge role, but when it comes to a peasant vote he has nothing to say, since his vote is tallied as a noble. Hence why it's a complete non-factor if his vote counts as three or even more than that, since a majority peasant vote will get him killed anyway.

Guess that's just a misunderstanding, what I meant was since the emperor is uncorruptable, it would make it almost impossible for the rebels to gain control of the noble execution unless they recruit you.

Since Zar Peter hasn't even tried denying the charge, that further seems to confirm that he's a rebel indeed. The logic that marked him as such seemed sound as well. From there on out, we can conclude that a couple of other people aren't rebels, or were at least not part of the oriignal rebel crew (since the people in question still could've been recruited at a later point in time). Which means there are at least 4 rebels out of a list of 7 now, and we'll need to kill at least one rebel peasant and possibly two of that list.
*ponders*

Now using your logic, if people defend themselves, they're a rebel, if they don't they're also a rebel. So is there anyway someone can't be a rebel once you label them as one? Even the emperor's a rebel noble according to your first blatant lie so I don't understand why everyone still seems to trust your "logic".

[Freshmeat]

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

Yep, I know I'm a loyalist and evnafets was the one that pointed out that Szilard was the emperor when you tried to him lynched with your lie so I can only assume that he is more likely than not innocent which would mean that you would be handing the lynch power to the rebels rather than hindering them.

Excellent use of a past tense there.
I began this day hoping to kill the Emperor, yes. Now I believe it's more prudent to put that aside for the moment and kill some rebels first instead.

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

And by the voting, I can see that you've got an iron grip on those on your "safe list". Congratulations on getting it all to work but I look forward to saying I told you so when this ends

You're always free to help me by sharing your suspicions. Or you could keep trying to attack my credibility, trying to get me lynched instead and downplaying the importance to kill rebel peasants here.

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

Now using your logic, if people defend themselves, they're a rebel...

Can you quote me on that?

[Fleeing Coward]

Originally Posted by Freshmeat_

Excellent use of a past tense there.
I began this day hoping to kill the Emperor, yes. Now I believe it's more prudent to put that aside for the moment and kill some rebels first instead.

Yep, so if you lied about that, how can I be sure you're not lying about everything else?

You're always free to help me by sharing your suspicions. Or you could keep trying to attack my credibility, trying to get me lynched instead and downplaying the importance to kill rebel peasants here.

I'm attacking your credibility because of your lies but I havn't been trying to get you lynched for awhile now. I've presented my suspiscions for rebels a few posts above if you havn't noticed.

Can you quote me on that?

Well, you still believe evnafets to be a rebel for I don't know why since the reason for the first post doesn't apply and you still believe me to be a rebel also based on logic that I could just as easily apply to you and then you also claim that Zar Peter is a rebel because he has done nothing to defend himself.
How is that not a case of you trying to further push your claims that everyone's a rebel whether they decide to refute your claims or not?

So far, all your claims have been based on little actual evidence especially with regards to voting patterns which has been what you have used in the past. When you combine that with your lie at the start of the day, why wouldn't I question your credibility on this matter?

[Shishnarfne]

I'll go back to my earlier suspicions: Gwyn ap Nud, without presenting ANY evidence survived an early initial bandwagon yesterday... I'll take that as sufficient evidence for me to suspect some people know his role... And I'd appreciate being told if I'm off the deep end... I'm a peasant loyalist, trying to figure out how we haven't managed to kill off a SINGLE rebel this whole game...

[Zar Peter]

I can't defend myself because I don't get the logic behind the accusation. I'm sure there must be one but I didn't found it (and I don't have the time to search for it more than 5 minutes).

I point at Gwyn up Nud, the explanation was shorter and therefor more convincing.

[Freshmeat]

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

Yep, so if you lied about that, how can I be sure you're not lying about everything else?

How can I be sure you're not lying about not being a rebel?
Seriously, arguments like these will get us nowhere.

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

Well, you still believe evnafets to be a rebel for I don't know why since the reason for the first post doesn't apply and you still believe me to be a rebel also based on logic that I could just as easily apply to you and then you also claim that Zar Peter is a rebel because he has done nothing to defend himself.

Actually, ever since I've asked people to lay off the voting for now I haven't really openly accused someone of being a rebel, other than ZP, and you've seen my reasoning for that.

Originally Posted by Fleeing Coward

So far, all your claims have been based on little actual evidence especially with regards to voting patterns which has been what you have used in the past.

Correct. However, no rebel has died yet, so that doesn't give us any indication about who is protecting who. Based on points, you can draw conclusions about which people aren't in league with one another, and (obviously) who has been joining bandwagons and who hasn't.
I do know the people that aren't rebels though - which is a little less than about half of the playerbase by now.

[Zombie pixe]

*I point at Gwyn up Nud*

[Shadow]

((Oh sure. You wait until I'm dead to get the fun going....
I really need to work less....))

[easyname]

Meh...I guess I'll point at Gwyn_ap_nud too.

[evnafets]

Originally Posted by Freshmeat_

How can I be sure you're not lying about not being a rebel?
Seriously, arguments like these will get us nowhere.

How can you be sure?
You scry people thats how you can be sure.

And obviously, despite what you said at the beginning of the day, you haven't scried me.
1 - You lied about the scry
2 - You lied about your reason for wanting to lynch Silzard. Only through continual badgering have you come up with the truth.

Why should we still trust you?

[Freshmeat]

Gwyn ap Nud is not a rebel.

As a matter of fact , I'm finding it quite suspect that so many peasants (about half of which are rebels, guaranteed) are trying to steer the vote in a direction that I know is completely wrong. Granted, most peasants are unknowns to me, so take that observation anyway you wish.

Here's the deal: It's highly likely that there are 8 peasants at the moment. Either three or four of these are rebels.

If we do nothing, the rebels recruit a peasant and gain control of the peasant vote. (4/7 or 5/7)
If we lynch a rebel peasant, the rebels recruit a peasant and either tie again, or gain control of the peasant vote. (3/6 or 4/6)
If we lynch two rebels peasants, we're homefree. Of course, this is also the most difficult scenario to accomplish.

Originally Posted by evnafets

2 - You lied about your reason for wanting to lynch Silzard. Only through continual badgering have you come up with the truth.

Only through my sudden realization that if we don't kill a rebel now, we lose.

Call that 'scare tactics' if you wish, but if you look at things logically, you'll see that this is true.

Originally Posted by evnafets

Why should we still trust you?

I've mentioned it before numerous times. Rather than to keep bringing that up, you might want to contribute something constructive here.
Not to mention, I'm the one reminding everyone here why we're closer to losing than everyone seems to think. If I was a rebel, why would I suddenly ring the alarm bell if all I'd have to do was sit back and watch everyone waste yet another day?