This is the only read I noticably disagree with. He was pretty quiet early in previous games too, and his degree of activity at this point feels to me like a nulltell.
D2/D3 we can take a look if he's still quiet, and the same goes for Mannikath - Manni is always quiet and scummy-looking D1, then turns out to be the priest.
Otherwise, your reads seem pretty decent to me, even if you don't know when not to talk about a topic!