{{scrubbed}}
I'll be honest, I still think we can reliably up it to 17+, with a [disputed] tag if necessary. I can't see any way to cut the Roy+Thog arena fight below 14 rounds, which gives Thog either an absurd CON and even more absurd STR, or the Extend Rage feat and a CON modifier of +3 or better. Since STR is his best ability score, that makes his STR 17+.
(Also he may have Improved Unarmed Strike since Roy's unarmed attacks seem to have provoked an AoO here, but that's even more subjective.)