I could argue you're simplifying the mechanic, because it includes everything from dropping their weapon to hitting the wrong target to failing to reload to tripping to any number of dumb mistakes. I actually find 450 still reasonable out of 180,000 people. People are inherently fallible.I think your math is off. I only see any level fighter having 1.5 critical mistakes in an hour. Which, again, makes sense to me.
Regardless, I agree any crit. fail mechanic would be hard-pressed to be realistic, but it makes one damn good storytelling and drama element.