Careless Village WW

[planswalker]

Okay, Ramsus, finally saw that you continued to massively edit the post that when I went to bed was a third this length. Since I was called out specifically, I will do my best to answer you piece by piece so you can clearly see that I am not putting words in your mouth or ignoring your point. Please extend me the same courtesy in turn. Spoilered for length.

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So that just means everyone else secretly drew the same conclusion I did and didn't say it out loud for no good reason

Let's examine that day in detail, shall we?

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Randomala point at Forum explorer for no reason

i tottaly didnt change my post.

super dark edited in a vote for FE AFTER many other posts. This is really an example of him trolling voting history, as he edited this post with a FE vote after many posts discussing this, giving an illusion of him being the first to vote for him. Count Dingdong's vote tallies don't account for his vote because he edited it in long after the fact.

I'd like to know why people protected Forum Explorer, especially since he was up against the masons.

TBF asked what the logic of defending TBF was, since he opposed someone who happened to be a mason.

Agreed. Forum Explorer still has my suspicions.

I agreed with TBF's reasons and re-asserted that I still had my suspicions from day 1.

That's a good point, Forum Explorer

Devmaar thought we had a good point.

we reached lynch status before you posted day 2.

Sure, Forum Explorer it is. Remember, vote Ramsus for mayor. The opposing side is not giving you cookies no matter what they say.

You were #5 to jump on the bandwagon.

So why are we voting on ForumExplorer Again?

If you want to keep the discussion going maybe you should accuse someone else, not FE.

Gunnar questioned why we want to lynch FE. He also called out Super Dark for random voting.

whoa whoa whoa! Nobody including me knew I was up against a mason. And if I'm understanding the mason rules correctly only one other mason knew planswalker was a mason. In the end I voted for planswalker because I didn't want to get lynched myself and he had the second most votes.

TBFProgrammer for never explaining the weird logic of yesterday even when I asked politely.

FE explained his vote from yesterday and asked people to explain why they voted for him today.
he voted for one of the people that voted against him, since there wasn't much else he could do.

And that doesn't help explain why it is that you thought not getting the start of voting patterns yesterday was a good idea. You actions to me smell of someone who doesn't want an informed town.

Since TBF argued against lynching the mason yesterday, I think it's safe to say he wasn't acting wolf-like.

I'll grant that the evidence against you isn't absolutely condemning, but can you provide us a better target?

I was the first to explain my reasoning, admitted it wasn't solid logic, and challenged him to find a better target. Emphasis on better.

The moment people knew you were a Mason, no one voted for you to be linched. If you're talking about before that, what does it matter that TBF argued against it? It was a random guess!

Second: Why, if he doesn't have a better target, does he have to die? That just seems like a weird rule. I myself don't have any clear target, so do I have to die?

Gunnar tried to muddy the waters.

There is evidence that doesn't smell right to me, and SOMEONE is going to die today, whether we vote someone or leave it in the hands of a single person.

i'll grant that I'm not 100% sure he's a wolf, but he's more suspicious than anyone else.

I defend my reasoning, which boils down to "someone gonna get lynched. You're the most suspicious to me unless someone else gets pointed out."

Doesn't sound right, but hey, you're a Mason, so everything will turn out right, I hope. I'll trust you for this one:

Changing my votes:

Ramsus for mayor.
and I'm sorry, Forum Explorer but maybe this will stir up some more info.

by the way, maybe a bit of a dumb question, but: do we get to know the roles of the people we lynch?

Gunnar changes his vote to FE. That brings the total up to 5 people to lynch FE, no other competing bandwagon, and you still haven't explained your logic for voting for FE as of this time.

some back-and-forth chatter of little note happens, then:

Of course we're not giving out cookies. Everyone knows pixies make the best cake.

Vote for me, and I will give you a nice strawberry and chocolate cake, with vanilla frosting.

Oh, and Ramsus is evil. Don't vote for Ramsus. Vote Lex-Kat for mayor.

Lex-kat votes for you because she also wants to be mayor.

Forum Explorer, yes. Afraid I haven't much to say, yet.

yet another vote for FE and I haven't seen where you explain the reason to vote for FE.

Right I don't think I have time to convince you all otherwise so....


I am the Seer and I've done a piss-poor job of it.

After 6 (maybe 7, depending on if Super Dark edited in his vote by this point) votes and no other bandwagons presenting itself, he claims seer.

after he's already well over the lynch threshold with very little time left.

and any wolf could claim that.

do you have any claims we could test to help us verify this?

I ask if he has any scries we can test for this. I'm asking him to supply me with someone to switch my vote to.

Afraid not. The only scan I've done was Ramsus and it was interfered/failed for whatever reason.


So yeah piss-poor job, particularly since I've apparently missed the Night 0 scan.

he claims to have scried you and only you and have gotten interference...

which, since he turned out to be the devil and knew he was the devil, I see four possibilities for why he claimed to have scried you and got interference:

1. He told the truth, and your scry was interfered with. Most likely because the REAl seer also scried you. I guess people have been curious to know your alignment if this was true
2. He lied, he did scry you, and he got a result. It was wolf and he decided to say "interference" because he didn't want to point at a fellow wolf and give us a lynch target for day 3
3. He lied, and scried you as town. Since this isn't a useful result for a seer candidate, he didn't feel like giving the town a free scry off of him, so he claimed interference instead
4. He lied, and scried someone else instead. It wasn't a role that would help save his hide, so he decided to throw your name out as interference instead of giving town a free scry

In hindsight, I think #1 or #4 most likely. If he'd scried you as a wolf, he'd have likely thrown you under the bus to save his hide. If he'd scried you as a villager, I think he'd have likely claimed you were a wolf to get us to lynch a non-wolf that day and give him another night of scries.

still, I think in hindsight that it's most likely that he really was telling us the truth. He probably hoped the ring of truth about his scry result would give us pause.

that's... awfully convenient for a wolf to say.

of course, a true see wouldn't try to lie to save their own skin.

Like I said, a 50/50 chance of wolfhood is my bet.

I question how convenient that all is, and re-assert a 50/50 chance of FE being a wolf.

Wow a Seer claim with no scries. Yeah. Not wolfish at all. Cherry on top is the interference claim on someone believable for interference to happen on. I'm pretty sure I've done that exact move before as a wolf.

For me that's like 70/30 wolf.

I assume that this here is where you defend that FE is a wolf?
I'll grant that this is a pretty good argument.
Given late (already 6/7 votes for him to be lynched, no other opposing candidates of real note)
there were 13 hours left when you gave this argument.
Don't let me sell you short: you did give the most solid argument for why we should lynch a seer claim. It just happened to be given after he was already basically doomed and there were no other candidates and very little time to change things. I'd hardly call that a rock-solid towntell. After all, unless there was an unseen and unheard throng of people that would have rushed at the last minute to vote for someone else with no clear second candidate already present, his fate was sealed.

It actually sounds like a probable story, for the most part. A good amount of people would target Ramsus rather soon with seer powers. It's more likely that a new-ish player who is a wolf backed into a corner would claim seer with scries then claim fool when those are wrong.

But it's not like we have information Super Dark for the hell of it and still voting Lex-kat for new fake mayor vote, that might possibly become a real thing.

Us chooses to believe FE in spite of all arguments to the contrary.

I'll believe the explorer for the moment, too. And Lex Kat seems to think that Ramsus is evil, I wonder why.

I'm wondering what's this mayor thing is all are talking about lately... maybe I should read the old newspapers.

Zar Peter votes for you because... um...
you opposed Lex in the mayoral running that day?
I don't really know.
Still, this makes the second person to not vote for FE after his seer claim. Both of which are after you made your argument for lynching FE. Still not seeing where your argument changed the outcome in town's favor.

Wow, yeah, I don't want to be a lynch candidate because my opposition in this election (that I started) declared me evil. If she was a seer or a proxy that would have been an outright claim. As is, it's just misleading.

You oppose getting lynched just because Lex is running against you.
I've gotta admit you're consistent in defending yourself by criticizing the reasoning of your opposition. Not sure what that means, but you're consistent.

I don't know which side I'll be on yet but that cake sounds tasty. Lex-kat for mayor.

It would be nifty if there was initially no mayor role, enough people vote for one and Count DingDong just runs with it

Tom the Mime doesn't vote for anyone and gives a prophecy that Count Dingdong ends up fulfilling.

Hmm... I think that Superdark33 looks a tad suspicious. But I like the idea of the cake!

A vote for super dark at the last minute.

SuperDark33, because I dislike lynching a claimed Seer.

bladescape effectively turns Super Dark into a possible last-minute bandwagon.

Ramsus, for trying to get us to kill a Seer-claimant.

And Lex-Kat would be a good mayor.

C'nor opposes lynching a seer claim. Instead of following the super dark bandwagon, she votes for you. Again, I don't see the logic of this claim. I guess it boils down to "you didn't claim seer and opposed Lex in the mayor election". The election that doesn't do anything yet.
Super Dark, C'nor and I have a discussion on the merits of voting to lynch and untestable seer claim.

I'll vote SuperDark

Grue Bait jumps on the super dark bandwagon with no stated reasons.
1 hour and 22 minutes later, Count Dingdong closes voting and posts results.

Unless my count is off, FE was lynched by one vote over Super Dark.

every vote for FE happened before he even claimed seer, much less you gave your 1 post opposing it. While I'll grant that just one person out for FE changing their vote would have swung things to either Super Dark or executioner vote, you were not the only one to argue for lynching FE, you were not the most vocal, and you were very mysteriously silent once a credible bandwagon on someone else started picking up momentum at the last moment. Admittedly, you had less than a 12 hour window of opportunity to do so and thus it's just as likely you weren't on for that span as anything else.
The most you can really claim is that your argument was an example of "for want of a nail"; that is, if your small contribution hadn't been there, possibly someone else would have voted Super Dark/changed off of FE and changed the voting. The problem with this claim is that we have no evidence to say it did anything. The most likely conclusion is that your argument, despite being the most logical single post for FE's lynching, did nothing. You gave it with very little time left in the voting and no real likely-looking candidates at the time you gave it. If anything, a decently strong case could be made that your and my arguments for FE's lynching after his last-minute seer claim spawned the wave of other votes that nearly caused the FE bandwagon to be de-railed.

in summary, you did contribute to FE getting lynched. Your biggest contribution wasn't your arguments but your vote.

or that they were willing the lynch a seer or willing to just do what everyone else did not matter who was being lynched.

as plausible as this sounds, looking at all the voting from that day, the story doesn't really hold up. Everyone who voted for him did so before he gave a seer claim with less than a day left. It's very likely that most of them didn't log in and read through the backlog in time to do anything one way or the other.

Explain to me how that makes me a wolf. Then explain why, as a wolf, I would even have said anything at all there.

Because my basis for accusing you isn't founded on any one single thing. It's the overall trend of your voting since day 2. Mostly, day 3 onward. However, not even your day 2 behavior is out of line for a cunning wolf who thought there was a chance of either looking very town or lynching the seer. I'll reiterate again that your gem of an argument happened late and after all the FE votes were already in.

it's not an ironclad defense for you being town. If I was a wolf, I likely would have done something just like that in your position. Especially since I didn't know I was really going to be voting for my own devil.

Edit: Especially since, as you said, some people had voted for me at that point and would very obviously have used that as an excuse to lynch me the next day if I'd been wrong.

no, odds are we'd lynch super dark instead...

which we did end up doing soon after.

Edit 2: Your arguments for why we should lynch me are, I think the most telling thing about why we shouldn't. You're dismissing my logic as "Ramsus' usual defenses" which is something I know that you know I find annoying when you could attack the individual points themselves. Which leads me to believe you aren't behaving as you usually do as town. Then you make an even better point for me about the whole Devil situation in an attempt to discredit one of my points for why it makes little sense to view me as a wolf.

Do we have any reason right now to believe you're town? You don't seem to be acting like you do as town.

the issue at stake here isn't "do we have reason to think you're town?". The issue is at stake is "who seems most likely to be a wolf?"

Edit 3: If you're a wolf and you're pushing my wagon this hard, it leads me to believe you think I'm the Baner and that lynching me is the only way you're going to kill me. And I also know you know how well I've done in the past as a Baner.

IF he's a wolf. Your argument here hinges on this premise: you assume he is a wolf and can explain his actions in those terms.

this creates a bias in your logical reasoning, as you assume he is a wolf and then see if you can line up the evidence to match this conclusion.

A less biased premise is "I do not know if he is a wolf or not. Are his actions more like that of a wolf or a non-wolf?"

Since I myself am neither wolf nor town yet and find myself agreeing with him, I challenge your premise for your argument. I think you started with a faulty premise by assuming he was a wolf and doing your best to show the evidence that supports that.

Edit 4: This also explains why you seem to be pushing for the Baner to claim. Which is highly inadvisable in this situation. And you'd know that too.

I agree with you that calling for the baner to reveal himself isn't generally a wise idea. However, if the baner's about to be lynched with no other confirmed power roles on the table, it's reasonable to ask the person who's about to get lynched to claim a role if they have one so they can save themselves. Not really conclusively town or wolf, IMO.

Edit 5: As Penguinator is not an original surviving role and hasn't been scried to my knowledge, we have no reason at all to believe he's town. As I've pointed out he's behaving anti-town just for trying to get the Baner to claim and is behaving in ways I'm pretty certain he doesn't as town (though I guess &we might want to weigh in there as of course I could have a bias).

can't claim to know his usual activity, as I'm still quite new to WW games. The argument has been made on earlier days that we know there are two original wolves left. We do not know if there are any new wolves or not. Odds are, there are wolves in the newcomers, but we don't know how many of what kind if at all. It makes more sense to focus on the two known quantities before chasing the unknown but probably present quantities.

Especially since the pool of possible candidates for the known quantities is much smaller than the pool for the unkown number of candidates.

Still, pretty sure he's a wolf now adding up all the things. I'm not going to urge anyone to vote for him as he's not an original wolf and thus not who we need to die right now. Instead since there's already votes on Grue Bait and Zar (possibly the Seer and not the Fool) is voting for him, I'd say do that. It's not perfect but, it's better than lynching me.

... wait, after spending several edits to point at Penguinator, you suddenly switch who you urge us to lynch by saying target Grue Bait instead because a possible untested seer claims he is wolf?

I'll grant that the seer claim pointing at him is a good reason to vote for him, but is it a better reason than to vote for you?

You also have a seer claimant who pointed at you. One who's possibly the seer and not the fool. In fact, the seer claimant who pointed at you has already given us one correct scry.

Since Kalnray was a newcomer claiming seer, we have no reason to assume one seer claim being true means another has to be false, since, for all we know, they both are. Now, from a sheer probabilistic standpoint, let's examine the odds of her claim being true. I'll put it in a quote box labeled with her name so as to keep things clear.

to ensure there is a common understanding, I will use the model that probability 1 represents a guaranteed positive and probability 0 represents a guaranteed negative. I will also assume that she wasn't completely lying and at least thinks she is a seer, as giving us a testable claim without actually being able to scry at all is very anti-town. Since we know she was not a wolf (night-killed), that just doesn't square.

I also will assume that the disguiser role does not have a bias towards targeting any one player, as the only argument for it having a bias is both unquantied and coming from a source with self-interest in the base premise that you either are or are not a wolf. I am not qualified to make an estimate of that due to my inexperience and bias the other direction. If you seriously think that you are more likely to get disguised than your average bear, please give me a probability of you getting disguised as a wolf and I'll re-work the relevant odds to include that.

I will stick to the best of my ability to known probabilities and to avoid guessing at any unknowns without clear reason. In order to be able to analyze the fool, I will assume probability 0.25 for his accuracy while scrying, as I'm only in 1 other WW game and thus it is the only number I have to work with. If someone can supply me a more likely median probability, I'll re-work my calculations with that number.

If you or anyone else finds fault with my above premises or my below methodology, please calmly explain the error and I will re-evaluate my calculations.

We have no reason to believe she is anything less than equally likely for her to be a seer or fool. Thus, the probability of her being seer is .5 and fool is .5 before examining her tested claim.

She has given the following claims before she was nk'd:

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Night (4): Ramsus = Wolf
Night (5): usourselves&we = Villagers (I found the plural amusing)
Night (6): Grey Mage = Wolf
Night (7): Matthias2207 = No Scry

Basis of calculations of her scry on Grey Mage on Night 6:

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IF she is a seer, then her claim that Grey Mage was a wolf being proven means that either A) Her scry was correct
or
B) The disguiser unknowingly disguised a wolf as a wolf on the night he was scried. He could also have disguised him as town. Since disguising a wolf as wolf (if such happened) indicates no knowledge of the role, I will assume that the hypothetical disguise is randomly picked on a random player. If someone has an algorithm or other basis for determining the odds more sharply than that, I'd love to hear it. I will assume .5 probability of disguising either way.

On night 6, there were 13 living people who were not clueless newcomer. This makes the probability of Grey Mage getting disguised that night 0.0769 (1/13). The probability of him not getting disguised is thus 0.9231 (12/13). Either way, she was seer, she scried either the role or the disguise correctly, which a seer has probability 1 of doing.

We happen to know the probability of Grey Mage being a wolf is 1, since it was revealed upon his death.

IF she was a fool with a probability of correct scry of 0.25, then she had the same odds of hitting a disguise and the same odds of the disguise being town.

if she was a seer, the probability of her scrying a Grey Mage as a wolf on night 6 is: 1(seer probability of correct scry)*1(probability he is a wolf)*[0.9231(no disguise)+0.0769(disguise)*0.5(wolf disguise)]=0.9615

The probability of her being a fool with a correct scry on a wolf on night 6 is: 0.25*1*[0.9231+0.0769*0.5]=0.2403

if she's an equal chance of being assigned to be either role, the evidence heavily favors her being a seer since she successfully scried a wolf as a wolf on night 6. 4:1 in her favor. Before there's a significant chance of her being a fool with this result, the fool role would need to have at least a 50% chance of being correct. That would make the odds 3:1 of her being seer. It climbs up very steeply from there as the probability goes up to quickly surpassing 2:1 and approaching 1:1 as the probability of a fool's correct scry approaches 1. At less than 50%, the odds don't even increase from 4:1 to 3:1. I can more rigorously explain this point if requested.

This gives us the probability of her being a seer as 0.8 overall. 4 out of 5 times a seer/fool hypothetically scries a wolf as a wolf on night 6 and is proven right, it will be because that scrier is a seer.

Your claim as a villager disguised as a wolf and scried by the Kalnray as a wolf is thus:

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probability of seer: 0.8
probability of fool: 0.2
there were 15 people that night. Probability of disguiser disguising you: 0.0666 (1/15)
probability of the disguiser not disguising you: 0.9333(14/15)
Probability that the disguise was wolf: 0.5
On day 9, 2/6 remaining original players are wolves. Probability you were randomly assigned wolf role among pool of original roles remaining: 0.3333
Probability you were assigned town role among pool of original roles remaining: 0.6667

Odds of you being disguised as a wolf:
0.0666(you were disguised for the scry on night 4)*0.5(the disguise was as a wolf)=0.0333

the probability of her scrying a you as a wolf on night 4 if you really are a wolf:
1(seer probability of correct scry)*0.8(her probability of being a seer)*[0.9333(no disguise)+0.0333(disguised as wolf)]+0.25(fool probability of correct scry)*0.2(her probability of being a fool)*[0.9333(no disguise)+0.0333(disguised as wolf)]=0.8216

the probability of her scrying you as a wolf on night 4 if you really are not a wolf:
1(seer probability of correct scry)*0.8(her probability of being a seer)*0.0333(disguised as wolf)+0.25(fool probability of correct scry)*0.2(her probability of being a fool)*0.0333(disguised as wolf)=0.0283

it is very unlikely in the extreme for us to find you being otherwise from the tested seer's results.

the probability that you are a villager, but were disguised as a wolf:
0.6667(you are villager)*0.0333(you were disguised as a wolf)=0.0222

you're telling people that the incredibly long shot of you being town but disguised as a wolf happened. You also tried to encourage the idea that a proven seer claim must have been by a fool, which is less of a long shot but not still good odds.

From where I'm standing, this is a very unlikely story that I would do better to gamble against than to gamble for. Without something concrete to back up your claim, it just plain isn't likely to be a smart bet to trust you at your word to be town.

Planswalker, I have done something constructive and found another target based on logic and patterns.[/quote]

Yes, you did something constructive based on logic and patterns... you pointed out the wolfishness of Penguinator, who is likely to get probed when we finally ferret out the last original wolf.

but the target you found to replace yourself on the chopping block was not Penguinator. the target you found was Zar Peter's untested seer claim that he also voted for the next day. That is another target yes, and you could accurately say that some logic and Zar Peter's voting patterns went into choosing it, but I don't see how this makes him a better target than you when an already tested seer claim has already painted you as a target.

You probably did ferret out the second best target to lynch today, but you haven't shown to me how this target is a better choice than you are.

You suggested I do so if I wanted you to change your vote.

yes, if you want me to change my vote, you'll need to supply me a target that I see as more likely to be a wolf than you are.

Are you now going to or will you go back on your word?

did you intend to word it so that I'm a liar and a promise-breaker if I don't side with you? Because that's how it's coming off to me. Which is a dirty tactic and a low blow.

however, since the target you supplied is not one that I see as more likely to be a wolf than you are, I am not going back on my word at all by saying that my vote stays.

(Not that I'm saying you flat out promised or anything, still near enough that my opinion of you (that you don't care about I'm sure) would be lessened for flat out ignoring your own statements without a particularly good reason.)

does me thinking your untested seer's candidate not being more weighty than a tested seer's candidate qualify? If not, then I hope you will eventually forgive me for becoming an "oathbreaker".

Edit X (seriously, this is a lot of edits): Ok yeah, technically the logic, I found a wolf, now lynch someone else doesn't really scan

no, it doesn't...

but, in the principle of the thing, you still should be switching your vote off of me. If for no other reason than you gave me a lot of carp while I was sick and I put in clearly way more effort into this than you did and you aren't sick.

that is a logical fallacy. Allow me to explain why:

it is a strawman argument. You did put in more apparent effort in finding us a target today I put in apparent effort to come to the conclusion that you are a target before this post. Since in this post I went through the effort of quoting every relevant post from day 2 and explaining it to show why you didn't save the bandwagon on FE and did my damndest to use probabilistic math to show why the tested seer's claim against you should not be lightly dismissed, I think the "effort" contest can easily be said to not be in your favor. Thing is, how much effort you put into constructing your argument doesn't make it inherently more useful or powerful. There are absurdly wrong people every day who spend a lot of effort to prove that the earth is flat. That doesn't mean they're right. Them being sick when they put in the effort to gather their evidence doesn't make them more right. If anything, it means that they are not at 100% when they gathered it and their conclusion is more likely to be faulty than a healthy person who was able to more efficiently sift through the information to come to a conclusion.

In sum, I'm sick, vote for that guy because my reasons are better than yours for voting for me and that's what you asked for.

and if your reasons actually added up to better than a tested seer's claim, sure.

edit: @count dingdong: I know I said I'd drop it, but he specifically called me out, and I felt I had to answer him. I tried my best to keep this impersonal and not rise to the occasion to his comments that I felt were barbed and aimed at me. If you feel this post inappropriate, let me know and I'll delete it.