The Singularity

[Carry2]

Those are not big numbers.

You were claiming stagnation when the reality is, in fact, growth. Remind me again how this supports your position? (This is without getting into a larger debate about, e.g, faster growth in developing nations thanks to the flight of manufacturing jobs.)

Pointing out that such extrapolation is unlikely to be particularly good...

Then why are you so eager to posit that a genetic aristocracy will be the likely result of gene-tailoring? Why is that extrapolation any better?

The big take-away there is that genes only explain a large portion of variance for people with high socio-economic background...

The variation due to environment is only large for children, and reaches about 80% heritability in adults. We have been over this before, and it is has also been covered at length in the article I cited.

It's badly right-skewed...

In the same sense that climate change science is left-skewed, yes, I imagine it is. Reality has an awkward habit of not aligning perfectly along political faultlines.

I have no argument that many health problems are genetic. Moving on to personality...
I seem to recall you arguing that genetic selection for intelligence would result in a world where everybody was paid well...

I posited it as a scenario that requires genetic intervention to realise. I am not saying that other environmental inputs or political change would not be likewise required, nor did I exclude them, but genetic intervention is very likely to be a neccesary component.

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