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2013-12-31, 01:16 PM (ISO 8601)
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#107
Re: [Steam] Thread XXXIII: The only winning move is not to play
(Trigger warning: numbers numbers math math math)
Originally Posted by
Trixie
Ahem. Double
ahem.
And these 2 aren't even the most expensive things you can get from cards, far from it.
Yes ... but given that the drop rate on Precious-tier items is around one in six hundred (and each specific one is around 1/6000), if you're really that desperate for one, buying one outright is likely both cheaper and much more reliable. Even if you're getting cards for 15 cents apiece, $150 worth of snowglobe badges would only have a ~15.4% chance of outputting a Precious at all. Specifically getting the one you want is a tenth of that chance (1.5%). Kind of like TF2 Unusuals, then -- awesome when you uncrate one by sheer luck, but it's exceedingly unlikely you'll turn a profit by opening crates en masse.
The pattern continues all the way down to the Commons -- why spend $1.50 on the badge (for a ~1-in-15 shot at the item you actually want) when you could pick it up off the Market for under 50 cents?