Everything ok? (I recall reading your post earlier, but never got a chance to reply.)
Obviously it's possible, but the opposite is also possible. And you're mistaken in saying "a chance at a date", it's "a chance at a lasting relationship with the person you have a crush on". A bit more worthy a goal.
One thing is for sure, "this guy, a close friend I would totally love to date personality-wise and who has a crush on me, is currently not really attractive to my eyes mostly due to being overweight" is the kind of situation for which I'd definitely recommend not shutting the door tight ASAP.
The main good reason for shutting the door tight would be if Helio feels unable to handle the whole thing carefully. That'll be her call.