Regardless of whether you agree with the viewpoints espoused or not, misrepresenting something for the purposes of mocking it is dishonest storytelling.

He is supposed to have done a quick Bayesian inference. That is the typical kind of result you get from such an analysis. I think there are some instances in the first few chapters where he explicitly goes through some of the steps but it would get old pretty soon if you would have to read those steps every time Harry does it, that is why later in the book Harry just announces what he thinks is most likely. Of course, a number as 3 should not be taken as literal. He is dealing with a lot of unknowns after all and just winging a lot of the variables. Such an analysis would tell you, which possibilities are exponentially suppressed (i.e. hundreds or thousands of times less likely than the forerunners) and may give you a rough ordering of the prime candidates. But a difference of a factor 3 in likelihood seems very unreliable, those two possibilities would be seen as essentially almost equal. Unless Harry did that analysis knowing all the input variables exactly, then he could state a difference of 3 with confidence. Does he ever mention a factor of 3 in the book? In which context? I cannot remember when he does.
That wasn't a quoted number, just an example.. He doesn't seem to have any basis for the numbers he picks, just assumes that X event is Y times more likely to happen based on...nothing much?

Personally I very much enjoyed reading it, but more importantly, I like that it inspired a bunch of other authors to write their own pieces of rational (fan)fiction. Without HPMOR we wouldn't have had a lot of other stories that I greatly enjoyed/am currently greatly enjoying. Many of which are probably better (or at least more consistently good) than the story that started the pseudogenre.
Any examples you'd like to share?