No. You provided a counterexample. It has to be outrageous because that's what forces people to reconsider. It was not in bad faith and I am sorry that my meandering style led you to think I was saying that about you.
14/2 if Dashing Swordsman offers casting every level
16/1 if it's not at all.
So 14+/1+ (Caster 16+)
Unless there's another thing pointing to 15 Bard? I'm not the best at this.
But I've been thinking about what makes something likely to me. I've noticed I prefer explanations that portray Rich as straightforward and honest. If Rich is being straightforward and honest, then he wants us to think he's straightforward and honest. But if Rich is being devious, he still wants us to think he's straightforward and honest, at least until the reveal.
So if we footnoted every entry in the OP with *or Rich is being devious, similar to how we now footnote every entry with *or Rich is using a house rule, then it looks win-win. Either the OP is correct, or it provides valuable cover for spoiler-y things Rich doesn't want revealed yet.
Using new Bard spells to indicate new Bard levels would be straightforward and honest. If Rich used Dashing Swordsman levels to advance Bard casting, then either he's going to tell us later, and right now the setup is that that would be a reveal, or he's not, in which case it doesn't matter what we put in the OP because we can't be contradicted. So why not pitch Rich as straightforward and honest, when we have the choice?
EDIT: I still think 14+/1+ (16+) is a succinct and transparent solution, I'm just trying to think ahead to other arguments.
EDIT 2: Or footnote it *or there will be a reveal later. That makes it about our feelings instead of Rich's feelings.