Quote Originally Posted by yoshi927 View Post
Now, see, you've got it backwards. After blundering into Parson's trap and getting most of his siege destroyed, Ansom took a gigantic chance by sending his fliers in a random direction hoping to find the wounded stack. (as far as I know. Did he have an informant?) If he picked the wrong spot, the entire game was booped for him.

Parson's plan wasn't flawed. It was really just bad luck.
I disagree. Ansom knew the dwagons were close, which meant that there were only a few hexes they could be hiding in. Assuming Ansom instructed her to approach from the lake side, then she was bound to pass over two lake hexes on her way to him. If the dwagons were placed in one of the farther lake hexes then it turns out to be 50-50 odds that she would stumble into them, everything else being equal. However, Parson should have placed the dwagons in the lake hex that was farthest from Jillian—he said she was a threat—but such things are not always possible. It's not as if he would logically consider planning to avoid her stumbling into them, either. Vinnie could just as easily have found them with his bats and then vectored her in to the right hex if not for Ansom's assumption that the dwagons were concealed.

Jillian stumbled into them because Parson had left them on the obvious approach path. Minus points for Parson, but it's hard to imagine Jillian flying in blind using Parsons imperfect knowledge: veiling of troops. Had he known about that little trick and its bat-nullifying effect then he might have moved the troops to the farther hex, assuming that was even possible.

In any event, he can try to blame Wanda all he wants but I still call it his fault. He knew Jillian was a threat but he took the chance. That being said, I'll repeat my comment that 61% is too close to even odds for this combat not to be very bloody for both sides, no matter who wins.