Quote Originally Posted by Red Zero View Post
These kind of battles usually took a few attack cycles to resolve. It was an impressive opener, but I think the fireworks have only just started. Victory for Jillian and the Archons (rock band?) isn't assured by a longshot yet.
Well, yes—the old 61% thing. Let's take a look at the situation at the start of the fight.

Team Stanley: 19 wounded Dwagons + 3 uncroaked warlords
Team Ansom: Jillian + 5 Gwiffons + 3 Archons

Now make a lot of simple (and mostly inaccurate, but not unreasonable) assumptions:
  • There are combat rounds in which the attackers make first strike, then the surviving defenders make theirs.
  • Everyone can reach everyone else.
  • A strike can be made against any chosen undefended target if a warlord is present, but is made against a random target otherwise. Defended targets (warlords) can be attacked only if the defenders are first brought down.
  • One strike per unit per round.
  • Any member of Team Ansom is strong enough to croak a wounded dwagon or uncroaked warlord in a single round.
  • Wounded dwagons attack at full strength.
  • An uncroaked warlord's attack is equivalent to a dwagon.
  • Archons and Jillians have lots of HPs—let's say enough to withstand 3 dwagon attacks. (Archons probably have magic defenses, and Jillian's a barbarian.) Unwounded gwiffons have a 50% chance of surviving a single dwagon attack.
  • Archons, being mercenaries and having no cause save their retirement accounts, will flee the battlefield before being croaked.

Given all this, the rounds of combat might go like this:
  1. Archons nuke 3 Dwagons. Gwiffons chomp 5 more. Jillian re-croaks a Warlord. Team Stanley is now down to 8 dwagons and 2 warlords.
  2. Dwagons chomp 3 gwiffons and take a bite out of each of the Archons. Jillian is unhurt, being a defended warlord. Team Ansom is now down to 2 gwiffons, 3 Archons at 2/3 HP, and Jillian.
  3. Archons nuke 3 more Dwagons. Gwiffons chomp 2 more. Jillian re-croaks a warlord. Team Stanley now has 3 dwagons and 1 warlord.
  4. Dwagons take out 1 gwiffon and take bites out of 2 Archons and Jillian. Team Ansom now has 1 gwiffon, 1 Archon at 2/3 HP, 2 Archons at 1/3 HP, and Jillian at 2/3 HP.

The Archons now have to make a decision: can they croak enough of what's left of Stanley's forces to avoid losing one or two of their own? Going strictly by the assumptions I've set up, the answer is yes. But it should be obvious that it only takes a small change in the assumptions, or some not very large random factors, to shift the outcome in Stanley's favour.

Even with my grossly oversimplified combat and arbitrary assumptions, that 61% doesn't sound too far off the mark.