SpoilerI use my Counter Hold ability to use a flow instead of a normal AoO, using a touch attack with my fist.
AoO - (1d20+15)[19]
If it succeeds, again with the strength check, adding in a Stunning Fisted Timely Strike and again with the tossing you into the water, in the same spot as before.
Flow attempt - (1d20+9)[21]
Attack roll - (1d20+15)[18]
Damage roll - (2d8+2)[11]
Make your Fort save and opposed Strength check.