Lesse now... Only two and three are high enough to hit my touch AC. Let's get the AoO stuff out of the way first.

Hold the Line - (1d20+21)[28]Conceal - (1d100)[21]Damage - (1d6+11)[15]
Rapid Counter - (1d20+21)[36]Conceal - (1d100)[40]Damage - (1d6+11)[14]
Opposed Grapple 1 - (1d20+23)[38]
Opposed Grapple 2 - (1d20+23)[39]

If either of those fail, you're more than welcome to adjust your rolls so that you're making a Use Rope check instead of a normal Grapple check, as stated in the description of Hog-Tie in the Justiciar entry. Oh, and now that I see you you're my Dodge target from here out, just to clarify.