Quote Originally Posted by playswithfire View Post
I only need one touch attack to hit; after that we're grappling and I'm using Damage Your Opponent checks in place of attacks. I just made all 5 in case I kept missing so it goes

Touch Attack (1d20+25)[28] MISS Grapple Check (1d20+38)[57] Damage (3d6+14)[26]
Touch Attack (1d20+25)[43] HIT Grapple Check (1d20+38)[41] beats 38 Damage (3d6+14)[20]
Touch Attack (1d20+25)[30] Grapple Check to hog tie (1d20+38)[49] beats 39; you're bound Damage (3d6+14)[29]
Touch Attack (1d20+20)[22] Grapple Check for damage (1d20+33)[47] Damage (3d6+14)[29]
Touch Attack (1d20+15)[19] Grapple Check for damage (1d20+28)[32] Damage (3d6+14)[23]

So you need to make 2 more grapple checks

your one AoO misses, but the crit hits and I take 33
You weren't reading what I posted, were you? Hog-Tie uses Escape Artist instead of grapple, and the initial swings got +7 to hit and damage. Unless your AC is 36 on the nail, you're taking 62 damage between the two attacks.