Quote Originally Posted by Philistine View Post
Yeah... except that it really isn't. As I said before, at the time I pointed to EDK, there was no counter-bandwagon. It hadn't gotten started yet. So there's a legitimate argument that my vote was not "more decisive" than anyone else's; and there's certainly no justification for claiming that it was "more malicious" than any other.

And of course the whole line of speculation rests on the unspoken assumption that PirateMonk is a Creature - if he's a villager as well, it all goes down the drain. Because if PirateMonk is a villager, then a villager was going to be lynched in either case, no matter what I did.

It's really more a case of "reaching" than "reasoning." It relies on untested assumptions, and the incomplete consideration of sequence leads to a flatly wrong conclusion about significance. I'd really rather not get lynched just to prove Talic wrong.
The odds are somewhat likely that Pirate Monk is a villager. However, I cannot speculate on information I do not have. The information I have shows that no matter what else is true, you bandwagoned a villager, and did not bandwagon a wolf. Now, it's certainly not 100% guaranteed. But people generally are either bandwagoners, or they're not. The fact that you've been on both sides of that, conveniently in a manner which has you only bandwagoning a villager, and not a wolf, puts you in a small group.

Other people who didn't bandwagon day one, and DID on day 2?
Shishnarfne, Lex-Kat (though since she was the first vote day 2, it's hard to call her a bandwagoner), and deathslayer 7.

That's a very low number, so I can surmise that wolves are laying low. Still, I'm relatively sure at least half that number are wolves.

Which is better odds than a random point.