Probabilities are derived from statistics. Indeed, that's the primary purpose of them. Using past knowledge to gain a meaningful insight into the likely future.
If your grasp is rusty enough to refer to anything in the field as a "thingummy whatsit", I fail to be convinced.
How's that workin out for ya? What's the tally so far? Part of a successful plan is setting a meaningful, attainable goal. Yours isn't. Further, the ability of a duck to give another duck away is entirely dependent on one duck knowing another. People don't often reveal information that they don't know. Then again, that's just me, being illogical.
Is the assassin power part of the game? Yes? Then people signed up to play a game with assassins. To enter a game, and then demand a power not be used seems kinda selfish to me. Just sayin. People play for a lot of reasons. Some like to point randomly until they're killed. Some sit quietly and go with the herd. Some are rabble-rousers, who want to bend a mob to their will. Some... Just like to cause drama, in an effort to feel like they're right.
Feel like you are? Still? After what? 3 llamas and no ducks? How's your "I only kill ducks" workin' out there?
Ever think that someone could have been a duck? Then what does seeing me as the biggest threat mean? It's interesting the conclusions you can draw with incomplete information.