View Single Post

Thread: Highest Possible Crit Range?

  1. - Top - End - #247
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    Dairun Cates's Avatar

    Join Date
    Dec 2006
    Gender
    Male

    Default Re: Highest Possible Crit Range?

    Quote Originally Posted by Signmaker View Post
    Incorrect premise. Tending towards infinity, you will have a success rate and a failure rate. Both are convergent numbers, and the two added together will equal one. Picture it as a tree, as a linear-shaped string of rolls, whatever. The series model the probability that a given rolling engine will terminate or continue unbounded. All those tiny, infinitesmal probabilities you're treating as certainties due to infinity? You're not looking at them the correct way.
    Well, of course the two probabilities add up to 1, that's the very basis of probability, but one side has a continue condition and the other has a stop condition. The low probability needs to only occur once to completely end the loop. At this point, the "loss" side "wins" so to speak.

    However, the "win" side can NEVER win because succeeding on one roll just leads to another iteration with a lower probability of losing on this hand specifically. There is no end state. If you win again, you just roll again. THAT'S the problem. In order for you to hit infinity, there has to be no quantifiable way to continue, you won infinite times. The equation tends to infinity, but it will never reach it.

    The only way you can ABSOLUTELY ensure that you will never fail is to have an ABSOLUTE 0% fail rate.