Terminally sick:
Thanks for the catch on the 60/133. I should have realized that
3/20 + 7/200 + 133/200 != 1.
Incidentally, this is pretty much the coolest build on the face of this planet. Could you slide me a copy? I have a friend who would greatly enjoy it.
Edit: So if the probability of terminating is 60/133, where did this whole 5/9 business come from? Did I just misread something and end up making it up? I'm sorry if I did...
ocdscale:
On Bp vs. B:
Terminallysick knows the details, but the build apparently generates one attack for threatening and one attack for confirming. So if you threaten but don't confirm (with probability B), you spawn one attack tree, and the probability of that tree terminating is p, so multiply them and you get Bp.
Of course, why didn't I think of that? You're right. p=1 is the extraneous root, so p = C/A = 60/133 is the chance that the whole process terminates at all. So this -is- in fact non-deterministically infinite, and the chance that we don't come back to 0 attacks, ever, is 73/133. (That's actually pretty good on a practical level, and holds as long as we hit on a 7.)Originally Posted by paraphrased
Which means that terminallysick's "other proof" must not apply, somehow. I'll look at it later.