Witchunt V1.0 Game 3 - We are going to need more ducks

[CitizenFry]

But since you asked!

World 1: Ramsus is evil (40%)
lynching ramsus changes win%s:
Witch 30% -> 15%, Wolf 20% -> 15%, Town 50% -> 70%

World 2: Ramsus spy, JW alive (55%)
lynching ramsus changes win%s:
Witch 15% -> Witch 14%, Wolf 15% -> Wolf 15%, Town 70% -> Town 71%

World 3: Ramsus spy, JW dead (5%)
lynching ramsus changes win%s:
Witch 0% -> 0%, Wolf 0% -> 20%, Town 100% -> 80%

no lynch: Town wins .4*.5 + .55*.70 + .05*1 = 63.5%
lynch Ramsus: Town wins .4*.7 + .55*.71 + .05*.8 = 71.05%

[Leta]

Eternal Drifter CitizenFry. I wanna do a werewolf check on CitizenFry.

[Ramsus]

Whoah, I just looked back at the role info. Apparently I thought the DOB only did his thing if he was lynched. Well in that case at least there's that if you convince people to lynch me. Though chances of the DOB going off and hitting the right target or being figured out and eaten by the wolf are still more likely than I'd like to risk the game on.

[Mannikath]

I still advocate not voting. We lose nothing except a single kill if Ramsus decides to completely give up his act and kill someone. Meanwhile, the Priest and Spiritualist get information if they are still alive.

If the JW joins tonight, they HAVE to sacrifice Ramsus. Sure, Ramsus will always say "hey man, I was totally fooling the town, I'm not the Spy!" no matter what, and there will always be that small chance that he is the Spy and instantly outs them the next day.

Since it's smarter for the JW to wait for us to kill Ramsus and doesn't mind Spiritualist for Priest information anyway, the JW should be happy to stay hidden as long as we take.

GAs, please indicate a BAD GUY to the Spiritualist if alive. If you have zero information to go on, just don't protect and it won't matter because Ramsus isn't killing anyone anyway. If spiritualist is dead, protect a good target as usual.

[Mannikath]

Specifically, the first bad guy on this almost random list:

Mannikath, Tydude, Zanshin, Leta, seraine, Eternal Drifter, Onime-no-Enishi, CitizenFry, Ramsus

[Mannikath]

And just in case Ramsus does give up and decide to kill me for good tonight while the angels are busy doing other stuff, please make sure to kill him. Thanks! Love you guys.

[Onime-no-Enishi]

okay back from a really busy day, and i organized my thoughts, but after reading everyone's new posts, pretty much almost everything i wanted to say has been said so i will not repeat them.

If anything, I agree with mannikath, no lynch no NK, if the spy is indeed the only witch remaining, we have all the time in the world to weed out the JW (if alive) and the wolf. if anything, citizen fry seems wolfy to me too, for trying so hard to get a possible spy lynched.

I also do not agree to your numbers, fry; as a theory crafter myself, i believe the numbers are off, unless of course, you wish to clarify this.

i believe we should all go for No Vote, No Judge Lynch tonight.

Also, I am almost certain that the spiritualist is dead, or byers wouldn't have claimed that role and died for it.

[Gray Mage]

A quick rules clarification. You can't vote for no judge lynch. If no one is lynched the judge has the chance of lynching someone. He could chose not to do it, but that's enterely up to him.

[seraine]

So far it seems like Ramsus is the spy, because I don't think it'd be good for the witches to reveal that much. I wonder about the pros for claiming spy if you know spy is dead and you're a witch.

[Tydude]

So far it seems like Ramsus is the spy, because I don't think it'd be good for the witches to reveal that much. I wonder about the pros for claiming spy if you know spy is dead and you're a witch.

He could always be lying. And, it's not like he's told us that much that we didn't already know. And the pros? Nobody can refute your claim and you'll stop getting lynched. So it's a pretty good claim for him, except that he can't NK anybody now or we'll lynch him.

[CitizenFry]

Isn't day supposed to be over by now, or was there an extension given that I missed

[Onime-no-Enishi]

Actually, I want to pressure fry too, and see if hes gonna talk >>; so far, seems wolfy to me too.

vote change:
No Vote to Deadline Vote on CitizenFry

[CitizenFry]

Actually, I want to pressure fry too, and see if hes gonna talk >>; so far, seems wolfy to me too.

vote change:
No Vote to Deadline Vote on CitizenFry

Um, what? Have I not BEEN talking? Like, what do you want me to say?

You mentioned you think my numbers are significantly off; what are YOUR numbers?

[Onime-no-Enishi]

Um, what? Have I not BEEN talking? Like, what do you want me to say?

You mentioned you think my numbers are significantly off; what are YOUR numbers?

Oops sorry about the number part, for some reason i didnt see your 2nd theory craft post. that one seemed better.

Just wanted to know the motive for wanting to lynch our possible spy so badly, and that first set of numbers were very obviously trying to get us all to lynch him.

But yes, convince us that you are not the werewolf, or at least, give us thoughts on who you think is most probably the werewolf.

I should remove the vote, as itll probably be -2 soon (if we are having an extended day), and is dangerously close to getting lynched.

Citizen Fry to No Vote

[Gray Mage]

Isn't day supposed to be over by now, or was there an extension given that I missed

Yes, it was. Sorry about that, but sometimes the will be a little extension until I can log on and end it.
By my counts, town didn't chose a lynch, so day ends, night begins now.

[Gray Mage]

Night has ended. Nobody was lynched.

Gray Mage was kille-*Gack*.
...
..
.
Day Begins now and ends in 72 hours,

[Mannikath]

See? Now if the Spiritualist or Priest is alive, we have more information than before. If not, oh well, we're back to where we were yesterday and nothing is lost.

[CitizenFry]

Well, I'll be.

I guess the plan is no lynch, no nightkill, until the Werewolf jumps out?

[Eternal Drifter]

Well, I'll be.

I guess the plan is no lynch, no nightkill, until the Werewolf jumps out?

Either that, or we get new information.

You're still my #1 Werewolf suspect, I must remind you.

Though... from the looks of things... I think the Junior Witch was killed off some time ago.

[Mannikath]

Well, I'll be.

I guess the plan is no lynch, no nightkill, until the Werewolf jumps out?

Though that would be the safest bet, I doubt we would actually gain anything further because it is somewhat unlikely that the Priest is alive and very unlikely that the angels would have more than one piece of solid incriminating information to give the Spiritualist. (I actually can't think of any such universe?)

I'm down with lynching someone today.

Fry, are you sure you ain't the Werewolf?

[Ramsus]

Well yeah, I'd guess the JW is either already dead or very very patient (or forgetful, lol).

I think we should resume lynching/killing today but I'm fine with giving time for the Spiritualist to say whatever.

[Tydude]

If Zanshin's post here means what I think it means, the Spiritualist is dead. I'll let him confirm that before we start voting, though.

[Onime-no-Enishi]

id say theres at least a "very high chance" the spiritualist is indeed dead. We can go around gathering information, but just be mindful that the werewolf would be enjoying said information as well.

[CitizenFry]

Though that would be the safest bet, I doubt we would actually gain anything further because it is somewhat unlikely that the Priest is alive and very unlikely that the angels would have more than one piece of solid incriminating information to give the Spiritualist. (I actually can't think of any such universe?)

I'm down with lynching someone today.

Fry, are you sure you ain't the Werewolf?

If we think all the witches are dead then lynching doesn't gain us anything.

I don't think it's ever come up before, but if no one dies for X days and nights, it seems like the game should be declared a town victory.

[Gray Mage]

If we think all the witches are dead then lynching doesn't gain us anything.

I don't think it's ever come up before, but if no one dies for X days and nights, it seems like the game should be declared a town victory.

No, it shouldn't. If no one dies for X days and everyone keeps wanting to do that, I'll declare it a draw between the alive factions.

[Onime-no-Enishi]

if we are to lynch someone, i hope we dont start with the people who are most vocal, if anything, those who have been silent and not giving ideas are better off dead and giving the medium info.

But if we go around lynching too, i hope we don't do it too quickly, or werewolf can go on a devour spree.

[Onime-no-Enishi]

I have looked at the death list again and when they died etc. I believe theres a high chance the JW and werewolf are still alive. The JW probably hasnt switched over yet either to let our guards down, or many various other scenarios i cant think of yet.

Citizenfry is currently the highest on my scum list, Leta second (For not being vocal enough).

If anything, I still cannot confirm that ramsus is indeed, 100% the spy; I can easily see his and Orzel's role reversed. Heck, him and the JW might be plotting on how to kill us right about now; But as long as he is still holding on to his word of not night killing, we should not lynch him yet by the off-chance that he is indeed the spy.

Anyone else got any reads on CitizenFry and/or Leta?

[Onime-no-Enishi]

The JW probably hasnt switched over yet either to let our guards down, or many various other scenarios i cant be bothered to list.

^ dont ask my how i typed what i did, brain fart + no edit = bad

[Rogue Nine]

If Zanshin's post here means what I think it means, the Spiritualist is dead. I'll let him confirm that before we start voting, though.

id say theres at least a "very high chance" the spiritualist is indeed dead. We can go around gathering information, but just be mindful that the werewolf would be enjoying said information as well.

I don't have knowledge of the Spiritualist being dead, but when byers claimed, he only knew of one person's role. So either Sotek was the Spiritualist or Murska was (and that's how he knew byers was lying).

[Rogue Nine]

Oh yeah, I guess I'll go ahead and start with the voting. I'd like to pressure seraine for info today. He's been playing it safe vote-wise, and did not vote for Byers when he was outed.