4e Sea Change?

[Icewraith]

I don't know if this is actually a thing or not, but there seems to be a lot of "so I finally tried 4e" going around.

For me, the factor was moving to a different area and finding a group that played 4e. There were also a couple more new players to the group. Other people seem to be trying it because 5e is on the horizon and at the moment appears to be a shambling amalgamation of horror... or at least of mediocrity.

I know another objection I had to 4e at the time was the scope of the rules was limited in terms of character options compared to the sprawling land of 3.5 splatbooks. There has been time for that to change.

What I played seemed to be sufficiently D&D-like and interesting for me to continue with the group. Also the character creation tool was super useful. Is it possible we're seeing an increase in people playing 4e now? Actual trend or observer bias? Thoughts?

[obryn]

I think now that both it and 3.x are "previous editions" that we'll see a lot more 3.x players willing to look at it so we can all be curmudgeonly together.

I saw something similar when 4e was released. Time was, some forums dedicated a whole lot of time to griping about how terrible 3e was. When it was sunset, a lot of that grumbling ended and the grumbling changed to be about 4e instead.

-O

[Kurald Galain]

Is it possible we're seeing an increase in people playing 4e now? Actual trend or observer bias? Thoughts?

It is not an actual trend, for the clear reason that WOTC has abandoned 4E and is working on 5E. On the one hand, doing this ensures that less people will be interested in 4E; on the other hand, they would never do this in the first place if 4E was still increasing in popularity.

[BlckDv]

It is not an actual trend, for the clear reason that WOTC has abandoned 4E and is working on 5E. On the one hand, doing this ensures that less people will be interested in 4E; on the other hand, they would never do this in the first place if 4E was still increasing in popularity.

I'm not sure I agree; from a business perspective I concede your point; if 4e were growing in sales at a rate which seemed likely to surpass the sales of a new edition, it would be foolish to invest in said new edition.

But playing is not the same as purchasing. With 4e having been functionally sunset, it is now more or less a "complete" system. I think that change may persuade some players to be more open to learning it and pulling out already purchased materials to give it a shot. This could result in a change in 4e active parties significantly larger than any change reflected in 4e product sales.

While I do not know if they represent a meaningful subset of potential players, I do know individuals whose objections to 4e were more based around concerns that new products would depreciate their existing knowledge of the game to a larger extent than they felt new products in other systems did (A belief I did not share but found more than one of my friends committed to). I know other individuals who prefer to play in systems where they do not expect to be confronted with ongoing errata or revisions to the rules, and would find a sunsetted 4e more comfortable to pick up, in a way that house ruling a cutoff date for rules changes was not... these are just two pure anecdotes, not intended to be expressed as valid widespread data, nor intended to imply that they represent even a likely plurality of those who may be playing 4e now for the first time, but to illustrate that actual reasons to be starting a 4e party now do exist.

I lack any source of data to make firm statements one way or the other, for all I know more players are jumping from 3.x to AD&D with the reprints than trying 4e, but just want to point out that arguments which may be very valid concerning the business of D&D may not be so valid concerning the at the table expression of D&D.

[obryn]

on the other hand, they would never do this in the first place if 4E was still increasing in popularity.

Sure they would. Because releasing a new edition always makes more money.

-O

[Kurald Galain]

I'm not sure I agree; from a business perspective I concede your point; if 4e were growing in sales at a rate which seemed likely to surpass the sales of a new edition, it would be foolish to invest in said new edition.

But playing is not the same as purchasing.

True enough. Anecdotally, the only thing I can suggest is that the three major RPG conventions in my region used to be "All 4E, nothing but 4E" three or four years ago and had no trouble finding 50 players back then, while in the last two years they have shifted to "whatever RPG people are interested in" and find it difficult to fill a single table with 4E players. Plus almost all home groups have shifted (shifted back, in most cases) to either 3E or Whitewolf. So at least in my region, it's clearly not the case that there are more players trying 4E than there used to be.

But, you know, anecdotally. You might be able to get some useful data from the number of players LFR has compared to the Pathfinder Society, but otherwise I'm sure some regions will show the same data I've noted, and some regions will show the exact opposite.

[Scow2]

I think now that both it and 3.x are "previous editions" that we'll see a lot more 3.x players willing to look at it so we can all be curmudgeonly together.

I saw something similar when 4e was released. Time was, some forums dedicated a whole lot of time to griping about how terrible 3e was. When it was sunset, a lot of that grumbling ended and the grumbling changed to be about 4e instead.

-O

This is my theory as well. Now that the edition's dead, the detractors can finally go about actually trying the system instead of continuing to hate it. No point in hating something that's not popular or alive anymore.