Careless Village WW

[Kalrany]

Kal blinked. For practical reasons, she did not mind being kicked out of the inn 'because she had a place to go.' Her nerves, however, were still a bit wound; she was still getting used to the sounds of the house and the new alley it butted up to.

Still a bit wound up from the last few days, she had pulled a number of notebooks and files from the study and was pouring over them in lieu of actual rest. Her conversation with Torch (&we) had sparked several new lines of inquiry. She was also trying to corroborate her findings with the former Mason's when she heard it. That was very clearly a voice close by -- singing.

Opening the window father to hear better, she saw at the end of the alley a figure slumped against one of the houses. Much more interestingly, she heard the unique tones of Nighthunter speaking from a closer position.

Kal leaned a bit out the window and looked down. Didn't he head off to find the Grey Mage?

[bladescape]

Nighthunter rounded the corner, having heard the voice from nowhere. He loaded his crossbow, and pointed it around the corner, peeking out from behind it. "Las' nigh', eh? Tell me all 'bout it."

'You shoulda been there, probly asleep tho.' For some reason, this comment made the half-drunk shadowed man fall into a fit of giggles, as if at a joke only he understood.

'Like babies, I say. Babies. Swaddlin' clothes an' all. D'you know, mister, that babies sleep more'n half a day?' Pointing his wine bottle at the Night-hunter, he wavered it a bit. 'Oi, I see that.. craws-- Corse-- pointy thingie. Put 'em down, lad. Feel peace.'

[Grue Bait]

Gray Mage so we might lynch someone.

[Penguinator]

'You shoulda been there, probly asleep tho.' For some reason, this comment made the half-drunk shadowed man fall into a fit of giggles, as if at a joke only he understood.

'Like babies, I say. Babies. Swaddlin' clothes an' all. D'you know, mister, that babies sleep more'n half a day?' Pointing his wine bottle at the Night-hunter, he wavered it a bit. 'Oi, I see that.. craws-- Corse-- pointy thingie. Put 'em down, lad. Feel peace.'

The Nighthunter stayed his crossbow, but kept it lowered, rather than over his shoulder. "Lad, I ne'er sleep. 'Bout this las' nigh'. Tell me s'more. What 'app'ned?"

[Count Dingdong]

3 hours left, 5 people not voted, me busy -> 24 hour extension.

TigerFang, Matthias, C'nor, Devmaar, Caprice need to vote. Clueless Newcomers may also if wish.

-------

Votes:
Gray Mage - 6
&we - 2
Zar Peter - 1

Mayor votes:
Ramsus - 2
bladescape - 1
&we -1

if other candidates want to send in title to learn about just in case votes change, can do so.

27 hours or so left.

[Penguinator]

&we, to see how it goes.

[Matthias2207]

I'm going to vote Kalrany, again.
Would it help if I claimed seer?

[TBFProgrammer]

Probability says I'm more of a villager than a wolf right now: Kalrany

[gunnar11]

Seems like I already can vote: Ramsus for mayor
&we for the guillotine

---------------------------------------------------------------------

A young man entered the village. He could sense the magic in the air. This village was old, but still infested with eternal rituals of power.
While entering, he makes some gestures with his hands, some wards, for protection.

He seeks the alleys, the sideways of cities, where the rumours pass, where information is gathered. He tries to seek someone of knowledge: "What are the latest happenings in this town? I smell blood..."
He keeps his eyes open, and his mind even more.

[usourselves&we]

But what about the probability for Matthias?

Actually what is the probability that his is a seer/fool? He is an original, of which there is now seven, three being wolves, role #2 moved to #51 now held by C'nor, and four night deaths, three we know nothing about save for titles given:

Lex-Kat, the Aggravated
Penguinator, the Tired
TBFProgrammer, the Studious

. . . And, we have no time left to postulate. Could some one take up the cause while we are gone?

---

Do yet have time to change Mayor vote to bladescape to see what happen in a three way tie, or did we miscount somewhere?

[Penguinator]

@&we, no tie, Gunnar gives Ramsus a lead.

@Matthias: Since wolves may get you tonight, do tell us your other scries. Now.

There's no chance he was the Devil, so if he's a Seer/Fool, he's not lying about alignment.

At the same time, Kalrany seems to be implying a scrying role, and I would like to hear what her scries are before we she's dead, especially if Matthias is actually the Fool, not the Seer.

No lynch, for now, out of a simple need to vote.

[Count Dingdong]

24 hours left, 4 not voted. Continue discussion

Votes:
Gray Mage - 5
&we - 2
Kalrany - 2
Zar Peter - 1
No Lynch - 1

Mayor votes:
Ramsus - 2
&we - 2
bladescape - 2

Mayor candidates, send in titles to learn about.

-------------

role #2 moved to #51 now held by C'nor

Note: role #2 moved RANDOMLY into roles, meaning could be #51 but only 1/51 chance.

[Zar Peter]

I'm going to vote Kalrany, again.
Would it help if I claimed seer?

It would help if you mean by that that you scried her...

I'm going to imply that for now... Kalrany

[gunnar11]

Note: role #2 moved RANDOMLY into roles, meaning could be #51 but only 1/51 chance.

Actually, that's without counting #2, so it's a 1/50 chance, not 1/51.
Then there's also the fact that players had roles already, and you can't just change the roles of people that already had one, so it would furthermore reduce the chance.
Say there were 15 people with roles already, then the chance would be 1/35.

Just saying, chances are very important

[Devmaar]

For now...
Rasmus
Kalrany

[usourselves&we]

Think you counted the second role twice, so it would be 1/36, but that does not really matter.

What does matter is that we have a non role from the original 15.
That non role having a 1/3rds chance of being a wolf.

Of the 2/3rds chance of village:
1/5th chance of seer/fool
1/10th baner
0 chance of exicutioner (now possible of anyone alive when Eterins was lynched)
don't have time to calculate the other role chance

so we may have only two original wolves and the rest of the originals are town, or we could have three original wolves and not have a power role.
on top of the possibility of power role death leaving no one able to counter claim a wolf that plays seer.

---

&we to keep a tie.

[Zar Peter]

And bladescape for mayor

[usourselves&we]

now there just needs to be a new vote for blade as mayor to make the tie of three once more.
Edit: wait that was it, so happy.

[Kalrany]

Agree 100%.

Of the 15 original roles, we have had 5 successful day kills - taking out the Devil, the Alpha, and a Common Wolf from the Wolves while hitting the Executioner and a common newcommer. The night kills have offed a confirmed Mason and 3 unknowns (Lex-Kat, Penguinator, TBFProgrammer) -- although by OP we know that they cannot have been wolves (see the Alpha description about owning the night kill "Night kill cannot kill wolves."), unless when the night kill passed from Alpha to a new wolf that condition was removed, but I see no note of that in the OP or later.

So by elimination, of the first 15 players, we still have 7 people (usourselves&we , Gray Mage, TigerFang, Ramsus, Grue Bait, Zar Peter, Matthias2207) that cover the remaining roles. There were 5 wolf roles and 10 villager roles. We have removed 2 leaving 3 among the 7 players. We know 2 of the 7 original power roles have been removed by either lynch or night kill.

So of those remaining 7 players, 3 are wolves (voider, disguiser, and beast) and the other 4 are villagers of some type, be they one of the 8 possible roles remaining (2 possible other masons, 3 commoners, the seer, fool, baner). We are close to 50/50 for a purely random guess hitting a wolf. While that’s good odds for voting, it’s not good (for the villagers) in terms of the game.

Think you counted the second role twice, so it would be 1/36, but that does not really matter.

What does matter is that we have a non role from the original 15.
That non role having a 1/3rds chance of being a wolf.

Of the 2/3rds chance of village:
1/5th chance of seer/fool
1/10th baner
0 chance of exicutioner (now possible of anyone alive when Eterins was lynched)
don't have time to calculate the other role chance

so we may have only two original wolves and the rest of the originals are town, or we could have three original wolves and not have a power role.
on top of the possibility of power role death leaving no one able to counter claim a wolf that plays seer.

---

&we to keep a tie.

I hadn’t realized that #2 had moved to #51. It still leaves 2 wolves from the first 15 as per the OP.

Probability says I'm more of a villager than a wolf right now: Kalrany

Same here, especially since I also have a non-original role as you do.

@&we, no tie, Gunnar gives Ramsus a lead.

@Matthias: Since wolves may get you tonight, do tell us your other scries. Now.

There's no chance he was the Devil, so if he's a Seer/Fool, he's not lying about alignment.

At the same time, Kalrany seems to be implying a scrying role, and I would like to hear what her scries are before we she's dead, especially if Matthias is actually the Fool, not the Seer.

No lynch, for now, out of a simple need to vote.

Thanks! I am glad that my writing style can convey what I am trying to. As for the results, please see my votes and rational for them. My first game action was a day 5 vote, so that one was based solely on the board. Does this help, or do you need it further detailed?

Edit: lovely -- I just counted and realized I am dead with the current vote count. *sigh* I reiterate: do you need more info?

[bladescape]

The Nighthunter stayed his crossbow, but kept it lowered, rather than over his shoulder. "Lad, I ne'er sleep. 'Bout this las' nigh'. Tell me s'more. What 'app'ned?"

'Aye? Mboy, if'n you'd nae slept a wink the rest o' your life, ye slept last night. Made well sure that I did.' He laughed, and tried to reach out to pat the Nighthunter on the shoulder. Unfortunately, due to his current drunken state, he missed by a mile, and stumbled slightly.

'All hallows eve, the night that did last,
Asleep in their homes, them evils all fast.
NO DEATH, I did say, and say it quite well.
As I walked up them steps, and bonged that great bell.

I looked fast, I looked hard, not a sound to be seen.
Asleep in their homes all the peoples did dream.
Destiny? Nay, I done my part.
Now I just gotta hop on the bandwagon cart.'

[usourselves&we]

Is it not a tie in the lynch vote as well? Rules say that the one with the axe will be given full control of who is lynched in that case.

As we have said as Torch, the best place for information is clear out in the open plain as day. So it would do will for all claimed seers to say what they have in regards to alignments and the roles of wolves (if given).

[TBFProgrammer]

Same here, especially since I also have a non-original role as you do.

No, see, I don't know my own alignment yet, so I have to play based on the probability of what I will be. You know your own alignment already.

Also, Penguinator. (<-- EDIT: This is not a vote, this is a very suspicious person)

[Caprice]

I will go with No Vote for now while I try to catch up on what has happened ><

[Nightpenguin]

No, see, I don't know my own alignment yet, so I have to play based on the probability of what I will be. You know your own alignment already.

Also, Penguinator. (<-- EDIT: This is not a vote, this is a very suspicious person)

This strategy always means you shouldn't vote, as the side you're more likely to be on is also the side which you're probably voting a member off. If you voted for someone which you did, then I find it very likely that either you don't understand your strategy or that you're lying about not knowing which side you're on.

[Gray Mage]

Well, let's see about Kalrany. Nothing personal.

[usourselves&we]

OK, what the heck and a half pint is with people voting so suddenly for a non-original seer claim that has so clearly been hinting at that in rp for (RL) days now?

We can not waste our votes on non-originals at this time, we must not let original wolves get a win, which they will most certainly do if we do not kill one this day.

[Penguinator]

People, there is a definite chance that Matthias is the Fool!

With Kalrany claiming scrying role, you want to kill her before she's infodumped?

Gray Mage, you've still given us nothing of substance, and there's a claimed scrier after you.

[Count Dingdong]

Actually, that's without counting #2, so it's a 1/50 chance, not 1/51.
Then there's also the fact that players had roles already, and you can't just change the roles of people that already had one, so it would furthermore reduce the chance.
Say there were 15 people with roles already, then the chance would be 1/35.

Think you counted the second role twice, so it would be 1/36, but that does not really matter.

Pardon me for tiredness. 1/36.

Unless... unless TBF *knows* the Fool is dead...

Would prefer no dead role claims, true or false.

[Penguinator]

Would prefer no dead role claims, true or false.

It's hardly a claim, it's a conjecture.

[Count Dingdong]

It's hardly a claim, it's a conjecture.

was more in advance of any potential claims as response. stop before it starts, ya know?