Careless Village WW

[Matthias2207]

Because I still feel like a clueless newcomer, I'll not be voting today. ^^

(Apologies, but o.O all this text - *easily swayed by written argument*)

I'll summarize it for you:
Planswalker wants Ramsus dead. Ramsus doesn't. It escalated.

[planswalker]

Ramsus was scried as a wolf by a seer who had already gotten another scry right.

I feel this justifies a lynching.

Ramsus wants us to not lynch him so he can get another win.

[Count Dingdong]

@Eternis: can't vote role for Mayor. Must vote person. So far you're only vote, send in title to investigate.

DAY 9 OVER. Will update with narration once have time. Pretty busy now (more than expected).

[TBFProgrammer]

TBF, who asked you to dissect the way I play?

You were complaining about a trend in wolf games and how people react to your play. The only valid response (and you were complaining about not getting valid responses) is too dissect the way you play and elaborate on why that generates the response it does.

I feel an obligation to do provide a valid response, for reasons detailed below.

And if you're going to do it why do you have to insult me by getting it wrong?

I'm unsure as to where you think I got it wrong, and thus can't even begin to assess whether I did or not. However, if I did it is because I can't climb into your head and see whatever it is you are seeing (especially since you go to great lengths to erase any and all reference material that would allow for others to better understand you). Thus, my analysis will be imperfect as to what you are attempting to achieve, but fairly accurate in how you are perceived (since that is where I am standing).

There was no intention to insult.




Bear in mind that my chief concern is to ensure you don't drum up a meta-sympathy wagon that is not based on the game, which I place well within your capabilities. I am not doing this because you asked for it. I'm doing this to directly block your objective as it is highly probably detrimental to my own victory conditions.






Edit: Darn narrator ninjas.

[Count Dingdong]

Day 9

Halloween day, villagers preparing candy in preparation for night. Even in troubled times, dressing up as demons gives release. Grotesque figures everywhere, as decorations to scare. But not all decorations... Naera, still disfigured, walks around, unsure where she will be accepted, known to be dead with protector and friend dead as well. Almost another sister. Suddenly, from behind, hit over head and falls unconscious. Deja vu? Only to be expected when killed once before this way.

Wakes to find self tied to pole, looking around is in cave, another tied as well. "You can't do this! I'm Network, they'll find out! Sure, I'm not most helpful, Inaccurate most times, but not all! Give me another chance, I beg you!" From behind, Watcher emerges, cackling. "Pretty things, denying, denied, gone! Who said, who was it? Someone told him, to make him, he did... YOU!!! they're around, he sees, he still sees, oh god oh godohgodohgod... STOP IT!!! You two, hiding something. Made him do that. Do the same, you'll feel. Network? Phah! Impassive? Feeling, soon, soon, soon... She told me, she did. You'll feel, already are. Will die, can die... now. Hanging wasn't right but this is. You. You. Cause!!!"

Raving, Watcher seems insane, probably is. Unclear what he means but obviously holds Naera and Inaccurate responsible, and will do something. But what. He turns, leer on face and both shudder unconsciously. "Hmm? Decorations, you say? They will! Perfect, perfect decorations, spread fear, fear, disgust, pain, hurt, feelings, you! They'll be hurt, they'll all know! But know or not, I'll be dead, you will too. Too late to feel to turn to help to heal to harm to kill to kill KILL!!!" Watcher raises hand to reveal knife. Screams heard for hours. But nobody heard, none came...

Few hours later, dusk draws close. Mob has been milling around all day, not worrying about death for once. Suddenly, strange laughter brings them to gallows, uncertain, curious, careless, unprepared. Grisly, macabre sight awaits them, maybe few think only decorations, nicely done for Halloween to scare. Man laughing maniacally, eyes rolled back inbetween C'nor's and Matthias2207's corpses, gutted, flayed, face twisted in grimaces of pain. They know this man, realize it's real. Those who can control revulsion move to kill Watcher who doesn't resist, continuing laughter until dead, echoes off into night. Ramsus lies dead between others.

Villagers thoroughly frightened and disgusted, brought back to reality. Halloween may be good other years, but during death-filled times, doesn't work well for town... Night begins with few patrolling streets, door-to-door for candy, normality. Mayor sits in office, pondering. Was that last of them? He knew one was missing, but which? All in all, few more days would tell.

Spoiler

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Ramsus, the Watcher was lynched. He was the Beast.
Matthias2207, the Inaccurate was killed. He was the Fool.
C'nor, Naera was autolynched/killed. He was Newcomer #51 and will not be revealed.
gunnar11 assumes his role.
A second Clueless Newcomer enters town.
Gray Mage can choose a spot as a Clueless Newcomer on Day 10
Kalrany can choose a spot as a Clueless Newcomer on Night 10
Ramsus, Matthias2207, and C'nor can choose spots as Clueless Newcomers Day 11

Publicly revealed wins:

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Player Name	Wins
usourselves&we	1
Gray Mage	1
TigerFang	1
Ramsus	1
Grue Bait	1
Zar Peter	1
planswalker	1
Matthias2207	1
Devmaar	1
bladescape	1

Player List:

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Living Roles:

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##	Player Name
1	usourselves&we
6	TigerFang
8	Grue Bait
9	Zar Peter
16	Eternis
28	TBFProgrammer
30	Penguinator
31	Devmaar
32	Nightpenguin
36	gunnar11
39	Caprice
43	Chromasia
50	bladescape
--	Clueless Newcomers
18	planswalker
26	Tom the Mime

Night 9 begins
...and will end in 24 hours

Call for any onlookers to be Clueless Newcomers!

Due to popular demand (and lack of an opponent), there is now a Mayor role. Vote everyday for it! Candidate was elected Mayor today, but that role is flexible: anyone can take it, and who has it can change from day to day. What it does, find out for yourselves. Candidates for Mayor role should send in one title (bold in narrations) or topic they would like to learn more about.

Remember individual game. Players get wins simply for surviving. Is it in best interest to keep Originals so long, even village?

Missed 1 Day
Devmaar
Caprice
bladescape

[Matthias2207]

Ramsus! What did you do!? Why me!? And I was such a great Fool!

[planswalker]

His gun smoking, the stranger holsters his big iron that had just put a hole in Ramsus' head.

"That was for my brother James." he says as he walks away. "Now to wait for that librarian girl's family to arrive to take the house." he says to himself.

[Penguinator]

The Nighthunter waited by the library all day, but none came to open it. He shook his head. "'En 'at can only mean... Nah..." He stood there a moment, lighting a cigar, then placing it to his lips. Almost immediately, he dropped it on the ground and watched the flame. It flickered for a moment, then sputtered and went out. He stamped on the cigar and smothered it into the ground. Wordlessly, he headed off to see if he could find the man who spoke in threes.

[TBFProgrammer]

Ramsus! What did you do!? Why me!? And I was such a great Fool!

I don't think he had much choice in the matter, most beasts strike randomly from amongst those who killed them.

[Count Dingdong]

So much to do... think all things are taken care of (Role PMs, updates, etc.) but may have missed somethig. Tell me if need anything.

...this game takes SO much work.

[Lex-Kat]

Can I be a newcomer now? I wanna be number 31.... or whatever number is available after that.

[Count Dingdong]

Can I be a newcomer now? I wanna be number 31.... or whatever number is available after that.

Yep, been able to since Night 4. 31 taken, next available is 33. Will join as Newcomer during day.

[Count Dingdong]

3 or so hours left, maybe longer if busy. If haven't sent in decision, do so soon.

[Caprice]

Darn it, I should really stop relying on email subscriptions for updates on this forum >< (I just never learn, it seems...)

Anyway, my brief inactivity will come to an end and I hope to be a more active player in the coming days, especially since my real life obligations are being taken care of one by one

[bladescape]

'Nine men hung when the dealin's done,
Hey, ho, ho and a hangman's noose.
Nothing was left when the devil had his fun,
Hey, ho, ho, the deadly goose.
Silver and gold could allure the rest,
But one or two stood tall above.
Tha' men stood and took to the test,
Donna trust in hope and love.'

The man sang out aloud as the darkness grew colder, his laugh echoing like his voice. 'Aye. Mah task is done. Mah life 'tis problay over. Come to me, dark ones. Villagers nae need ta die tonight.'

[Penguinator]

'Nine men hung when the dealin's done,
Hey, ho, ho and a hangman's noose.
Nothing was left when the devil had his fun,
Hey, ho, ho, the deadly goose.
Silver and gold could allure the rest,
But one or two stood tall above.
Tha' men stood and took to the test,
Donna trust in hope and love.'

The man sang out aloud as the darkness grew colder, his laugh echoing like his voice. 'Aye. Mah task is done. Mah life 'tis problay over. Come to me, dark ones. Villagers nae need ta die tonight.'

The Nighthunter heard the voice, and stood by the drunken one. "Now, man. No 'un needs death. Don' be invitin' the worst tha' be."

[planswalker]

Re-quoting and replying to this. I did a piss-poor job explaining myself last time. I was mentally exhausted and didn't want to go through the effort of actually looking things up and had just assumed you were mostly right. Since then, I've thought about what I did, and I realized that you were mostly working under faulty information when you responded, which meant you gave a lot of faulty criticism.

It's not useful you put that in quotes xD

yeah, in hindsight it wasn't.

First of all: A disguiser is an original role, right?
That means that it shouldn't be taken into account. Grey Mage can't be a disguiser and a wolf at the same time. (Or is disguiser an evil role?)
This means that you have to count with 12 people instead of 13.
Second: Did you count the seer as one of those 13? Because if you did, you would have to substract one more, leaving it at 11 instead of 12/13

If I messed up, just say so, but even if we take into account the 13:

Yeah, you messed up.

You see, that part was not the probability of him being the disguiser. That was the probability of him getting disguised by another. Disguiser is a wolf role that allows the disguiser to declare what the scry result of any one person will be in a night phase. The disguiser may pick any person he wishes to disguise, and may declare them to be either alignment. I am working under the assumption in a blind no pm game that the disguiser did not know who was wolf or town on night 6 and did not have any reason to suspect one person would get scried over any other.

Since there are valid reasons for the disguiser to target himself, another wolf, or a townie, I assumed that it was equally likely for him to pick anyone to disguise then. This is actually cutting Ramsus a lot more slack than he really merits on the odds of him getting disguised.
Because the disguiser isn't likely to know anyone else's role or alignment on night 6 besides his own or mine (since I was proven to be a mason on day 1), the smart move is for him to disguise himself as town rather than take a take a blind chance or try to disguise me as a wolf since no one's likely to be scrying me then and I'd easily be able to prove them wrong. Assuming Ramsus was as likely as any other is, if anything, shifting the odds in his favor. Still didn't make them very good.

Technically, probabilities change with the knowledge you have, but that is quite a boring talk, and I will spare you it. Essentially you're right, theoretically you're not.

good to know. My knowledge of probability and the theory thereof is self-taught, so I'm not surprised there's a hole in my understanding. Glad to know this one isn't one that actually changes my application, even if it means my terminology makes experts cringe.

No no no no no no no no.
The thing is, you already know that he's a wolf. You can't take into account that he could be a villager in disguise, while at the same time taking into account that he's a werewolf (because we know that).

first of all, it's very condescending for you to scold me like that.

second of all, you completely misunderstood and misread what I was doing there, probably stemming from the fact you didn't understand what the disguiser role was and how it worked.

Allow me to explain each item piece by piece:

if she was a seer, the probability of her scrying a Grey Mage as a wolf on night 6 is:

Here I am looking at only the scenario where Kalnray is the seer, so I assume it for now. You didn't seem to have a problem with this.

1(seer probability of correct scry)

again, no disagreement here.

*1(probability he is a wolf)

you correctly read and understood what this was.

*[

that open bracket is a notation to say do all operations before the close bracket before doing any operations that came before. I assume you followed this, but I said I'd explain all of this piece by piece.

0.9231(no disguise)

This is the probability that the disguiser did not choose to target him. It has absolutely nothing to do with whether he is a wolf or not.

+0.0769(disguise)

This is the probability that he was targeted by a wolf.

*0.5(wolf disguise)

This is the probability that the disguiser would pick a wolf disguise for someone over a town disguise. Again, it has nothing to do with the identity of the target of the disguise, only the behavior of the disguiser.

]

the previously mentioned close bracket.

=0.9615

the numerical result of the math operation outlined above. This represents the probability of a seer on night 6 correctly scrying a wolf to be a wolf. It is not the probability that Grey mage is a wolf.

You're using Knowledge A to prove Knowledge A.

no, I'm not. You misunderstood what was knowledge A and what wasn't knowledge A. I was using knowledge A (we know he's a wolf) and using it to find out the odds of a seer scrying a wolf as a wolf, which is a separate piece of knowledge (knowledge B).

Better:
1(seer probability of correct scry)*1(probability he is a wolf)*[0.9231(no disguise)

agree with the words your setup, but once again, your intent (of saying the probability that he's the disguiser is completely wrong.

-(he isn't!)

again, you've tragically misunderstood the numbers. This has nothing to do with Grey Mage being the disguiser. This has to do with him being targeted by the disguiser!

0.0769(disguise)]

you are confusing disguiser (the role), with disguise (the effect of the role)

=0.8462

that is the correct result of your mathematical operation, but it's one that, if it has a meaningful correlation to reality, I'm not seeing it.

But that would still be using info in two ways.

... well, YOU used the info in two way in your "better" construction.

Perfect:
1(seer probability of correct scry)*1(probability he is a wolf)*1(she sees him as a wolf)=1

yeah... perfect for showing the probability that he's a wolf....

which was not what I was doing. I was showing the probability that that a wolf would be scried as a wolf. because of the presence of the disguiser role, there is a non-zero chance that the target of a scry could also be the target of that role and thus be scried under a disguise

A quarter of that for a fool.

well, yes. That's also what my math said. I just showed the math to be thorough.

The point I want to make is:
you use 4 factors in your calculations:

• Chance she is a seer [0.25 or 1]
• Chance he is a wolf [you take it for granted, 1]
• Chance he really is a wolf [you just took it for granted!, 0.9231??]
• Chance he is disguised [none really, he is a wolf, you just took it for granted!, 0.0769?????]

that is completely wrong. That is not what I used in my calculations.

I assume the seer/fool role for each calculation.

Then I use the factors:

• probability of a correct scry by that role (0.25 or 1)
• Chance he is a wolf (taken for granted, 1)
• Chance he was not targeted by the disguiser role and thus not given a disguise (0.9231)
• Chance he was targeted by the disguiser (0.0769)
• Chance the disguise picked by the disguiser was a wolf role (0.5)

I used 5 of them, and none of them were the same knowledge.

By the way, how did you get the factor 0.5?

by understanding the nature of the disguiser role and assuming he did not know grey mage's alignment and thus was as likely to pick a wolf disguise for him on that night as a town disguise.

request

This was done by taking the analysis from each side (Kal is a seer and Kal is a fool) and comparing them side by side. I'm not great at expressing this mathematically, so let me show it through a thought experiment.

If you ran this scenario 100,000 times, alternating whether you assign Kal the seer role or the fool role each time, you would get that Kal-as-a-seer scried Grey Mage as a wolf 48,075 times (approx). You would get that Kal-as-a-fool scried him as a wolf 12,015 times (approx). Now, my results here are only good to 2 significant figures (since I have rounding partway through my steps).

This means that the 60,000 times Kal would scry Grey Mage as a wolf, 48,000/60,000 of them were as a seer and 12,000/60,000 were as a fool. Reducing that fraction gives 4/5 of the wolf scries on Grey Mage that give wolf are seer scries and 1/5 are fool scries.

Since there was only 1 scry in reality, this means an 80% chance that the scry was performed by a seer.

Ok, two things: You can't use the chances taken on day 4 and combine them with day 9.

... yes I can. The chances from day 6 are knowledge that is known for day 9.

As said, chances vary with the knowledge you have.

exactly. On day 9, we have more knowledge than we did on day 6. We knew the results from day 6. All my analysis has done so far is show us the specific numbers of what we knew (or should have known) generally from day 6.

(do you know the story of the WIN A CAR shows? With the curtains/doors and when you get showed one the chance for the other increases?)

yes. That actually is another principle which illustrates how the results of day 6 impact day 9.

Second: when you say 0.03333 you mean 0.06666

no, I mean 0.0333 (I used 4 decimal places, not 5), not 0.0666

you see, 0.0666 is the probability of Ramsus getting targeted by the disguiser. There are two equally likely outcomes of that probability: he is disguised as town and he is disguised as wolf. That means half the time he is disguised, it would be as town and not as a wolf.

I showed the math for that one, btw.

Last but not least: you can't take the chance that she is a fool (0.2) and multiply it by the chance that she has a correct scry (0.25). These two chances are tied together. They change according to each other.

The 0.2 is the chance that Kal would correctly scry a wolf as a wolf on night 6 if she were a fool. It has nothing to do with her chances of getting an incorrect scry on night 9.

however, as you said, knowledge changes probabilities. Because on night 9 we know she had a correct wolf scry on night 6, the probability of her being a fool is now 0.2 instead of 0.5. The probability of the fool role itself scrying correctly on night 9 is not dependent on the results of night 6. And, other than the role's chances being independently uniform across all nights, vice versa is also true.

The chance she is correct while being a fool (0.2) will not decrease because she is a fool.

but the 0.2 is not the chance she is correct while being a fool. It is the chance that a correct scry on night 6 is from a fool. You have to multiply by 0.25 because we're talking about a hypothetical fool from night 6 scrying on night 9 and getting the specific result she got.

These are the things at first glance.

which you got by not paying enough attention to actually understand what I was talking about. Reading comprehension. As important in math as it is in literature.

I know you meant good, but you can't calculate chances for something while using those chances to calculate it. If you get what I mean.

I know you meant well, but it's nice if you put in the time and effort to understand what each term is before responding to someone who put in a lot of effort to formulate something. Especially, it's important for you to put enough effort in to be bothered to actually look up a role you aren't sure what is. Especially when 90% of your criticism comes back to you not understanding what that role was.

[bladescape]

The Nighthunter heard the voice, and stood by the drunken one. "Now, man. No 'un needs death. Don' be invitin' the worst tha' be."

'Aye, really now?' Turning his head to look at the Nighthunter. 'Ye nae will die tonight, but to life comes death. Ware you the death, don't look for it, aye, don't look for it. Sometimes it comes as predicted though.'

[planswalker]

The stranger with the big iron overheard that last part.

"Aye, yer makin' some sense there. I predicted Ramsus' death, and he's dead now."

[Penguinator]

"Was 'at th'Mayor? I din't get 'is name. Wha' 'bou' the Mage feller?" He shook his head, looking downward. "An' you are?"

[planswalker]

"I don't know about him being mayor or anythin' like that, but he was scum who caused the death of at least four people. An' I know he's dead. Shot him myself in the head just to be sure. Good riddance, I say."

[Count Dingdong]

[tl;dr on probabilities]

To end argument in prep for next day: both still have errors in probabilities. If want, will go over when game ends. But that's over, Ramsus revealed as wolf. Now go on to next day.

In meantime, writing narration. Hopefully will be done soon enough.

[planswalker]

To end argument in prep for next day: both still have errors in probabilities. If want, will go over when game ends. But that's over, Ramsus revealed as wolf. Now go on to next day.

In meantime, writing narration. Hopefully will be done soon enough.

I'm fine with it just getting dropped. Like you said, it's now rather academic. It was only really one point among several in why I thought Ramsus was a wolf trying to scum people into letting him go.

[TBFProgrammer]

To end argument in prep for next day: both still have errors in probabilities. If want, will go over when game ends. But that's over, Ramsus revealed as wolf. Now go on to next day.

In meantime, writing narration. Hopefully will be done soon enough.

Well this is correct, Planswalker's analysis is still works the better approximation. I think the biggest error I'd point out is that the probabilities of how the disguiser disguises people is definitely not 50/50, as they will never want to disguise themselves as a wolf. Also, most disguisers that don't target themselves will work out at least one of these three facts:

-They are more likely to target a towny than a wolf.
-Seers are much easier to eliminate after they pursue a lynch on a towny.
-Seers with wolf scries are going to pull lynch wagons away from other players (like the disguiser).

Which increases the chance that they will disguise someone else as a wolf, if they think they've already been cleared by the seer. (If you'll excuse me, I need to go reread the thread now).

[Count Dingdong]

Night 9

Working late into night, Mayor continues researching was predecessor was attempting to do. Things were growing more complex, and nothing as it seemed. Came upon one paper, deep in stacks. "Society and Network recently formed. Conspirators and I need to gain control over town before it's too late. I realize some may disagree with my ideals, but it's for the good of this town, no, for the world. We need to be careful who we bring in, who we tell of this. With luck, this town will be transformed to a chaos, but a much needed chaos to bring out the strongest, the most worthwhile, the ones who will save us all." Why he wrote that down, no idea.

Network meets again, can't tell whether original members still exist. It's grown rather large in recent days, but stories conflict as to who is who. Stories muddle, and much still unknown. Beginning chaos ending soon, Network Members try to figure out as much as can in preparation for next stage of battle: rooting out enemies from within.

Society as well, unsure who's left. Who is faithful? Who not? Do they have a Spy ferreting information out from within? Are there any originals that they can trust? Numbers dwindle and hope to survive. Who knows what coming days bring.

Successor meets with his following, trying to figure out what to do next. "I have no idea whether any original followers of the Advisor remain. Regardless, our options seem obvious. Of the original members, there's a good chance most if not all are against us. Assuming we can turn the town against them as well, they'll be dropping like flies. However, stay careful. We have to make sure none catch word of our plans..." At this moment, knock on door, and call of "Trick or Treat!" from multiple people. Suspicious, Sniper trains gun on door while Subordinate opens it. To reveal Liberators standing there with cameras, taking quick picture and turning to run. Don't get far as Sniper fires three quick shots, and all are dead. With little protection, usourselves&we lie there dead, pictures soon confiscated to never be released...

In rest of town, some go around door to door, trick or treating. For a little while at least. But eventually that ends, and all go back to houses to rest. In preparation of death tomorrow. One that could determine everything...

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usourselves&we, the Liberators were killed. Their role will not be revealed.
planswalker assumes his role.
A second Clueless Newcomer enters town.
Gray Mage can choose a spot as a Clueless Newcomer on Today!
Kalrany can choose a spot as a Clueless Newcomer on Night 10
Ramsus, Matthias2207, and C'nor can choose spots as Clueless Newcomers Day 11
usourselves&we can choose a spot as a Clueless Newcomer on Night 11

Publicly revealed wins:

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Player Name	Wins
usourselves&we	1
Gray Mage	1
TigerFang	1
Ramsus	1
Grue Bait	1
Zar Peter	1
planswalker	1
Matthias2207	1
Devmaar	1
bladescape	1

Player List:

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Living Roles:

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##	Player Name
6	TigerFang
8	Grue Bait
9	Zar Peter
16	Eternis
18	planswalker
28	TBFProgrammer
30	Penguinator
31	Devmaar
32	Nightpenguin
36	gunnar11
39	Caprice
43	Chromasia
50	bladescape
--	Clueless Newcomers
26	Tom the Mime
33	Lex-Kat

Day 10 begins
...and will end in 48 hours

Call for any onlookers to be Clueless Newcomers!

Due to popular demand (and lack of an opponent), there is now a Mayor role. Vote everyday for it! Candidate was elected Mayor today, but that role is flexible: anyone can take it, and who has it can change from day to day. What it does, find out for yourselves. Candidates for Mayor role should send in one title (bold in narrations) or topic they would like to learn more about.

Remember individual game. Players get wins simply for surviving. Is it in best interest to keep Originals so long, even village?

13 players -> 4 min to lynch

*C'nor can reclaim role by end of Day 11. If so, returns as Newcomer #51 again, NOT as Clueless Newcomer. On Day 11 onward, can choose new role. After Day 11 ends, role #51 revealed if not reclaimed by then. This will be standard practice for autolynch, in case miss away notices etc.*

Missed 1 Day
Devmaar
Caprice
bladescape

[planswalker]

okay, folks, there are three original villager roles left now:

Tigerfang

Zar Peter

and

Grue Bait

If we lynch an original town today, we give the original wolf left a win when they night kill the other original town. If we nab the wolf, we'll give 2 original towns a win.

I'm afraid that I don't have time yet to analyze the three's posts and divine out the most suspicious to me. Will try to do that tonight.

I am curious, though: Zar, Tiger, and Grue, who do y'all vote for?

[Zar Peter]

Today I scried Grue Bait. The FITH time in this game. But today, unlike all the other times I scried him, I got something back. My informants told me that said "Grue Bait" is in reality a hideous monster, and, lacking other terms for him, they called him "wolf". Now I AM aware that my informants were looking for him during Halloween which could mean that he was disguised as wolf and is in reality a worthy member of our city BUT I doubt that.

And because of that I point at Grue Bait.

And because of his effort in finding us a wolf and his great mathematic skills my vote for mayor today goes to planswalker.

[Penguinator]

TigerFang is the last mason, seems simple enough.

Zar Peter and Grue Bait both claimed Seer/Fool, but since the fool is dead, I find Zar Peter to be more likely the seer, coupled with the fact that Grue Bait's "scry information" is a tad lacking.

Thus, Grue Bait. Especially with Zar's report of a scry.

[TBFProgrammer]

Grue Bait claimed a role which isn't in the original villagers listing. Even if he misspoke and meant alignment when he made that claim, Matthias was our Fool.

As for the lack of a claim, it's because I've been pretty busy between classes, my own D&D campaign, and Halloween stuff. Apologies. I'm a fool. I know this because I scried someone, and then they died with a different role. Twice. So yeah, not bringing much to the table.

I find it unlikely that Grue would have scried two players who then died out of the three nights and two days he would have had to be a commoner who assumed the Fool role, especially with the number of scries that are failing.

That, and he's been way too silent.


Order of suspicion:
Grue Bait - Suspect claim, quiet
Zar Peter - Reasonable claim, talkative
TigerFang - 99% Cleared

[planswalker]

Analyzing things, I know Tigerfang is in the clear. We shared a QT for a bit until I was killed.

Zar Peter and Grue Bait both claim seer/fool roles...

of the two Zar's checks out better.
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The stranger with the big iron did some investigating today around town to make sure that was the end of things. He discovered in his investigations that it was not the end. There was one more left from that initial group that started everything. One more that contributed to the deaths of so many, including his brother.

"James, with Grue Bait's death today, you are finally avenged."