Dethy Tournament--Heat Three in progress!--Still Recruiting!

[Askthepizzaguy]

Better make yourselves comfortable for a while.

Let us know who is in line to replace him.

[Zjoot]

Well, looks like it's Pizzaguy to replace Sabeki if nobody else is interested. (Like you said, you've already played twice, so you're sort of the automatic last person on the list)

[Count Dingdong]

I'll join if no one else will. I'll see if I can actually get analysis out before others, and pizza's already played twice.

[Zack]

Is this going to start?

[Zjoot]

I just sent Count Dingdong his role. Day one will start as soon as he posts and end after 72 hours or until someone has three votes on them.

[Count Dingdong]

I received no PM?

[Zjoot]

That's bizarre. Something must have interrupted my web connection or something. It should be there now.

[Count Dingdong]

Such is the interwebs. I say, someone is looking mighty guilty as this game unfolds... So it begins...

[Internet Flea]

More than one, Count. More than one.

[Zack]

I know more about Lex-Kat than [most/all] of you.

[reaverb]

Oznsdjrgwokaxzfiu

sheuxdeudenyedlqzxgrujffjkoyt


That is my name, role, and claimed result.

It is encoded in a manner which I will reveal later, which can ONLY result one outcome (provable).

If I am a wolf, I left myself absolutely zero recourse. I must now expose this claim later on, and it has to be the winning claim, if I am a wolf.

Basically, I just cut off my own gonads. Factor that in when you start guessing who made a mistake, and when.

Now, everyone else, proceed with your thing. Claim a name you scried, then a result, etc, like we were doing.

After seeing PizzaGuy's Encryption method declared legal, I decided to create my own little method. Here's my scry:

(3,2)

I'll reveal how that came from my scry later etc. etc.

[Internet Flea]

After seeing PizzaGuy's Encryption method declared legal, I decided to create my own little method. Here's my scry:

(3,2)

I'll reveal how that came from my scry later etc. etc.

...are you saying Count Dingdong scries as Interference?

[Lex-Kat]

I know more about Lex-Kat than [most/all] of you.

That's very little, right?

[Zack]

That's very little, right?

Aren't you supposed to reveal your results now, seeing as you're the last person?

[Lex-Kat]

I haven't seen your results. Why should I post miine second?

I only see Reaverb's.

[Zack]

Each person gives one piece of information, then you give the other piece in reverse order. That's how people have done it in all the other games so far.

Count Dingdong - ?? guilty
Internet Flea - ?? guilty
Zack - Lex-Kat ??
reaverb - dumb encryption thing
Lex-Kat - ?? ??

[Lex-Kat]

Oh. Well then, I know somethin about someone who no longer is player and has been replaced by another player, not myself.

- - - Updated - - -

Sabeki Count Dingdong is Innocent.

[Internet Flea]

On the contrary, Count Dingdong is Guilty.

[Zack]

Lex-Kat is Innocent, though.

[Count Dingdong]

And while I'm here, reaverb is guilty! So... who the what did reaverb get?

[Internet Flea]

Okay, I don't like waiting. As far as I can tell, reaverb scrying Zack Guilty means Lex-Kat is clear and Zack is almost clear.

Ideas for the next scry round? Should everyone just scry Lex-Kat?

[Lex-Kat]

Wait! Are we skipping the part where we lynch someone?

[Zack]

Player	Scry Target	Scry Result
Count Dingdong	reaverb	Guilty
Internet Flea	Count Dingdong	Guilty
Lex-Kat	Count Dingdong	Innocent
reaverb	?	?
Zack	Lex-Kat	Innocent

[Internet Flea]

Wait! Are we skipping the part where we lynch someone?

As far as I can tell, it doesn't matter between reaverb, Count and me.

[Zack]

Assume one player is mafia, and the rest are innocent. The possible roles are then listed.

Player	Alignment	Role
Count Dingdong	Mafia	Mafia
Internet Flea	Town	Sane or Paranoid
Lex-Kat	Town	Insane or Naive
reaverb	Town	?
Zack	Town	Sane or Naive

Player	Alignment	Role
Count Dingdong	Town	Insane or Paranoid
Internet Flea	Mafia	Mafia
Lex-Kat	Town	Sane or Naive
reaverb	Town	?
Zack	Town	Sane or Naive

Player	Alignment	Role
Count Dingdong	Town	Insane or Paranoid
Internet Flea	Town	Insane or Paranoid
Lex-Kat	Mafia	Mafia
reaverb	Town	?
Zack	Town	Insane or Naive

Player	Alignment	Role
Count Dingdong	Town	Sane or Paranoid
Internet Flea	Town	Insane or Paranoid
Lex-Kat	Town	Sane or Naive
reaverb	Mafia	Mafia
Zack	Town	Sane or Naive

Player	Alignment	Role
Count Dingdong	Town	Insane or Paranoid
Internet Flea	Town	Insane or Paranoid
Lex-Kat	Town	Sane or Naive
reaverb	Town	?
Zack	Mafia	Mafia

- - - Updated - - -

The following table counts the instances the possibility of each role came up for each player.

Player	Sane	Insane	Paranoid	Naive
Count Dingdong	1	3	4	0
Internet Flea	1	3	4	0
Lex-Kat	3	1	0	4
reaverb	?	?	?	?
Zack	3	1	0	4

The following is a list of the possibilities for each role, and their conditions.

Sane Cop:

Count Dingdong if reaverb is mafia

Internet Flea if Count Dingdong is mafia

Lex-Kat if Internet Flea, reaverb, or Zack is mafia

Zack if Count Dingdong, Internet Flea, or reaverb is mafia


Insane Cop:

Count Dingdong if Internet Flea, Lex-Kat, or Zack is mafia

Internet Flea if Lex-Kat, reaverb, or Zack is mafia

Lex-Kat if Count Dingdong is mafia

Zack if Lex-Kat is mafia


Paranoid Cop:

Count Dingdong if Internet Flea, Lex-Kat, reaverb, or Zack is mafia

Internet Flea if Count Dingdong, Lex-Kat, reaverb, or Zack is mafia


Naive Cop:

Lex-Kat if Count Dingdong, Internet Flea, reaverb, or Zack is mafia

Zack if Count Dingdong, Internet Flea, Lex-Kat, or reaverb is mafia

[Count Dingdong]

Similarly, off of Zack's...

If I were Mafia, reaverb could be anything. His result, regardless of what it is, cannot clear me.
If Internet Flea were Mafia, reaverb MUST be Insane or Paranoid (Lex and Zack cover Sane/Naive). If his result is Innocent on someone other than Internet Flea, Internet Flea is cleared.
If Lex-Kat were Mafia, reaverb MUST be Sane (no one else can be). If his result is Innocent on Lex-Kat or Guilty on anyone else, Lex-Kat is cleared.
If reaverb were Mafia, Internet Flea is Insane, and I'm Paranoid. But he can't clear himself, as would make sense.
If Zack were Mafia, reaverb MUST be Sane or Naive (Internet Flea and I cover Insane/Paranoid). If his result is Guilty on someone other than Zack, Zack is cleared.

If we're assuming Zack Guilty was the scry, Lex-Kat is cleared. So the following question is which mafia world is best to clear out? Thoughts to follow... after I can go over possibilities and probably sleep, seeing as it's getting late...

[Zack]

Which goes to show, just post your damn results instead of using encryption.

[Askthepizzaguy]

So-rry. LOL

[Count Dingdong]

On IF's suggestion to have everyone scry Lex-Kat, assuming reaverb scry of Zack-Guilty...

Spoiler: Because it's longish...

Show

If I were Mafia, IF would get either result, reaverb would get Guilty, Zack would get Innocent. The only way that a result of me mafia could be confirmed would be through IF getting a scry of Innocent AND Lex-Kat getting a scry of Guilty on someone other than IF. The reason behind this being that IF could be mafia and lying, while reaverb's and Zack's scries of Lex-Kat would be meaningless. Better would be to have both of them scry me if you're trying to confirm/deny this possibility, as that would give a chance of confirming either reaverb or Zack as Insane/Sane(/Mafia).

If IF were Mafia, reaverb and I would both get Guilty, and Zack would get Innocent. Better would be the three of us scrying IF in order to confirm/deny this scenario for the chance of confirming/denying this possibility. Scries against Lex-Kat would tell us absolutely nothing.

If reaverb were Mafia, IF must be Insane, and I'd be Paranoid. Both of us would get a scry of Guilty against Lex. Zack once again getting Innocent. IF at least would get a scry of Innocent against reaverb, confirmed by a scry of Guilty against reaverb by one of Lex/Zack. This actually has good odds of working, as reaverb-maf wouldn't know who's Innocent/Sane of Lex/Zack, and the Sane one would be the more dangerous to him. Hmm...

If Zack were Mafia, IF and I would get scries of Guilty against Lex, and reaverb would get a scry of Innocent.

...and I feel like an idiot. I forgot we can use these scries to get rid of scenarios. Okay. If we all scry Lex. If I get Innocent... I'm Mafia. If I get Guilty... it says nothing. If Internet Flea gets Innocent, reaverb and Zack would not be Mafia. If Internet Flea gets Guilty... it says nothing. If reaverb gets Innocent, Flea and I would not be Mafia. If reaverb gets Guilty, Zack would not be Mafia.

...I was about to talk once more about what Zack getting Innocent/Guilty would say. If he says he got Guilty, he's Mafia, since he already scried her as Innocent. >.> So his result is already given.

Okay. The two people whose scries of Lex-Kat tell nothing are Zack and I. Zack because he's already scried her. Me because I'll only get Guilty, regardless of the situation. So... say you kill me. reaverb's result will clear someone, but he cannot clear himself. So Zack and IF must scry in a way that would tell if reaverb's wolf. Is that possible? Another thing to consider: Mafia kills reaverb in this situation to prevent the result; Lex must then try to clear/incriminate someone with her scry. Potential good situation, though I don't like dying.

So... say you kill Zack. Now reaverb will only get Innocent, assuming we have scries to make. I always get Guilty. If IF gets Innocent, it's either IF or me who's mafia. If IF gets Guilty, it's still any of the three of us... Scrying Lex-Kat is no longer the feasible option here. This doesn't look like a good option.

Alternative: So... say you kill Internet Flea. reaverb's result will clear someone, but he can't clear himself. Again, Zack and I would have to scry in a way that would tell if reaverb's wolf. Again, is it possible? Similarly, if Mafia kills reaverb, Lex must have a back-up to clear/incriminate someone with her scry.

Assuming reaverb truly did scry Zack as Guilty (which hasn't been confirmed by him yet), one of Internet Flea and Count Dingdong should be lynched today. I would obviously vouch for IF, since I know I'm innocent, but I see value in either. reaverb must scry Lex-Kat during the night. Lex must scry to clear/incriminate Zack or the one of us who's not lynched. Zack and the one of us who's not lynched must scry to clear/incriminate reaverb. Suggestions on how to make that happen? Is one universe easier to make that happen when taking into account past scries?


...rambling complete, time to preview and see how much ninja has happened.

@Zack, yes, encryption is a horrid pain, especially if the encoder isn't around to decrypt on time. I'll gladly redo my analysis if our assumption is wrong. But I'd really love reaverb to confirm/deny his scry...

Here's in hopes we've got a confirmation from reaverb by the time I wake up...

[Zack]

Why are we assuming reaverb's scry was Zack - guilty? That seems arbitrary.

Anyway, I put Count Dingdong's analysis (post #416) into color-coded table form.

Green = must be their role
Orange(ish) = possible role
Black = cannot be their role

Each table assumes one person is mafia.

Spoiler: Count Dingdong is mafia

Show

Spoiler: Internet Flea is mafia

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Spoiler: Lex-Kat is mafia

Show

Spoiler: reaverb is mafia

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Spoiler: Zack is mafia

Show