Dethy Tournament--Heat Three in progress!--Still Recruiting!

[Aventine]

2)Disc Lorde scries DukeGod
If he gets an innocent result, he's not paranoid or insane. Clears Aventine similar to above.
If he gets guilty, Duke is cleared as the tables show that if Duke is mafia, Disc Lorde is insane.

If Disc Lorde gets an innocent scry on DukeGod then he isn't Paranoid. But, if DukeGod is the mafia and Disc Lorde is insane (which is a possibility, unless I messed up my table), then he would get an innocent result. That's what my question was: you said if he gets an innocent result he is not paranoid or insane, and I think that should be "he is not paranoid."

EDIT: It doesn't change anything, if he gets an innocent scry I would still be cleared, I think. But it should still be possible for him to be insane, so long as DukeGod is the mafia. That is what confused me.

Ugh, this is the second post in a row I realized I need to edit immediately, I need to do a better job reviewing

[Tom the Mime]

I see what you were saying now. When I was typing that, I was mainly thinking about the table where you were mafia and forgot to express that that was only the case for the that table (and all non-DukeGod tables). It's been corrected in the post now. The conclusion is still valid though - I used the right logic to get to it, I just didn't express it quite correctly.

[Disc Lorde]

Well, crap.

We want to find the best possible scry combination. I'd love to dig into that problem, but it's complicated and I don't have time. Day ends in 12 hours and I have an assignment due in 15 that I need to do a lot of studying for. So I'm going to strike a killing blow to Duck999. If you guys have time to go through all the different scry combinations and find the best one that would be great. Now I need to get to bed. Peace out.

Killing the sane cop isn't a big deal. The plan is to find the mafia by narrowing down the possibilities, not by trying to figure out who the sane cop is and hoping he hits the mafia. So losing the sane cop isn't a big deal if it helps us narrow things down. Because of that, and because your last post makes it sound like you understand what is going on with Tom's plan and using scries to narrow things down, would you switch to lynching Duck and following the plan?

I know that what we're trying to do is narrow the possibilities down. It helps us narrow things down a lot if can we keep the Sane and/or Insane cop and they scry the Mafia. I'm looking at the bigger picture though, don't worry.

[Zjoot]

Day ends now

Duck999 was lynched. He was a Cop

Night 1 will begin now and last about 24 hours, or until I get all night actions.

Also, I will be doing narrations at the end. I want to incorporate people's exact roles into the narration. Feel free to continue adding a bit of role play if you want any particular character traits to pop up.

[Tom the Mime]

You need to clear your inbox Zjoot.

[Zjoot]

Sorry about that. There's room now. The new update doesn't show you your pm's, so I didn't realize it was full.

[Zjoot]

Alrighty, after realizing that I was waiting on the scry of yesterday's lynch victim (), the night ends.

DukeGod was killed. He was a cop, of course.

Day 3 begins now and ends in 78 hours or when two players vote to lynch another player.

[Disc Lorde]

Well this makes my vote rather simple at least. I know Aventine is mafia by process of elimination. This round is going to be up to Tom. Looking at the table...

Aw, donuts.

Both our sane and insane cops are dead. No doubt about that for me. I got a guilty scry on DukeGod, so I must be the Paranoid Cop, and I know that Tom must be the naïve cop and have gotten an innocent result.

It's up to you Tom. Use your head. If you make the right choice you're probably a shoo-in for MVP. If you choose wrong the Mafia wins. Good luck.

- - - Updated - - -

Note: Tom should reveal his result last, as we know he's a Cop.

[Aventine]

Well, I scried Disc Lorde as guilty.

Not much else to say. Unless Tom wants an argument from each of us in our defense, or something?

[Tom the Mime]

I can't really think of anything else either of you would say which would sway me in one direction or another. You know that whoever I scried, it was as innocent (it was DukeGod) given that Aventine's claim means I'm naive if he's telling the truth and if he's not, he's mafia and I knew I'd be naive in that case anyway.

One is that if Disc was mafia, he could've gotten away with killing anyone and being in a 1-on-1 with someone else and a confirmed villager who had a combined 25% chance of scrying him as guilty and knowing it was the truth. On the other hand, Aventine couldn't kill me without being outed as mafia by scries. But that itself make it best for Disc to kill Duke - keeping me alive and more suspicion falls on Aventine. If this was all there was I'd go for Aventine because it's a 50/50 assuming Disc was mafia and thought out his kill and slightly better odds if you assume Disc didn't think out his kill.

Looking at scries, Disc's scry was a foregone conclusion given the kill but Aventine's was not. The fact that he revealed it doesn't seem to mean anything if thought through (both by me and by him before posting it) because truth or lie, he knows I'm naive and can't contradict it. So it ends up just being a behaviour thing and that tends to mean little when there's so little to go on. So still no real conclusion but erring slightly towards Aventine.

Now looking at the second round of Day 1 scry claims as a possible tiebreaker (round 1 had too little info for either of them for serious strategizing as they were near the start. Looking at the info they had at the time.
From this point on, it’s very possible I overthought the extent to which the mafia thought about their claim. It did bring up some interesting points such as that, if they were mafia, both Disc and Aventine could safely assume the detail of my second round scry info Day 1 before I revealed it. Not typing out the logic as it’d be easier to follow in tables and I can’t be bothered making as amny tables as would be required in the forum.

Disc Lorde: Scrying guilty
The 3rd guilty with 1 alignment reveal seems a little risky but given the other information revealed, me claiming Aventine was guilty would clear him, which wasn’t the case if he was mafia so he’d know I’d say innocent.
Crunching the tables for if Disc Lorde scried innocent or guilty and who Aventine could scry (Disc Lorde would know it wasn’t him) showed that town got much more information when Disc Lorde scried guilty – I was always cleared and there were always at least 2 cases of ensured sane or insane if a specific person was a wolf and always let us have one town firm at the end. If it was innocent, there was much less information and there were 2 cases where we could get one clear at the end and 1 where we couldn’t (although in these cases it would be likely that Aventine would have been lynched day 1 so they’d be safe that day). So erring towards Aventine being mafia although choosing Disc choosing guilty here could be a WIFOM sort of thing.

Aventine: Scrying Duck999
First things first – establish the possible information. If I revealed my scry as guilty afterwards, both Disc and I would be cleared by contradiction (I would be cleared before) and at least one person confirmed sane/insane in the remaining mafia tables which would allow mutual clearing. If I had a guilty scry, mafia would be doomed anyway so assume I scried someone innocent. This means Aventine was operating with full information. Going through the four possibilities though, saying he scried Duck as innocent is one of the better looking options although played sensibly by mafia, they all seem to lead to the final day having one confirmed town. Saying he scried Duck as innocent gives table which look awful for mafia (each table has someone cleared or confirmed as sane or insane), but there’s always a weak link you can leave alive (just like there is now if Aventine is mafia) with the same problem that someone else could use that as an escape.

And now that I know I'm naive, time to RP the last bit:

"Do I have to kill one of you? I mean both of you look like such fine gentlemen. Disc Lorde, you said that Aventine even offered to let me sleep with the fishes. I don't know how he knew about my narcolepsy or my dreams of going scuba diving but it seems like such a nice thing to say."
~
"Wait, you mean it doesn't mean that? He was threatening me?"
~
"Really?"
~
"Well in that case, I guess if one of you has to die, it'll be Aventine."

If we win, Disc Lorde was telling the truth. If we lose, Disc Lorde was lying to my poor naive character.

[Zjoot]

(Alright, dramatic pause for the weekend, but now here we go!)

Police chief Ed Rolcsid (Disc Lorde) munched the Bear Claw that formed the last part of his breakfast. It tasted like cliché. He washed it down with coffee, then stared at the stack of paperwork on his desk and sighed. Sure, the promotion had its perks, but also its drawbacks. It had been weeks since he had seen any action. He sat around all day most days doing paperwork. Also, he was beginning to put on some pounds. Before starting into the pile, he checked his e-mail as always. Today, however, there was an unusual message from the Mafia Response Agency (MRA). He read it under his breath.

"We have received word of a Mafioso mole inside your organization. Recommend you resolve by any means necessary." Ed smiled a bit in spite of himself. He pulled out his old Smith and Wesson Model 36, the appropriately named "Chief's Special". He checked that it was operational. It was. "Finally some action."

Meanwhile, from his office, the real police chief, nicknamed Duke (DukeGod), rolled his eyes and chuckled at the poor lunatic trying to drink a cup of pens and pencils. It really wasn't a laughing matter. It was a brutal case, anyone would have lost their marbles over it, but at least he seemed to be coping ok with his "promotion". He turned to his computer finding the same email from the MRA. He lost no time in rallying his most senior detectives for a meeting. Ed, "Ducky" (Duck999), and Al Ventini (Aventine) filed into his office. He closed the door and took a deep breath and got ready to announce the bad news, but Ducky beat him to it.

"This about the mafia scum, Chief?"

"Yes, and it could be anyone in the station so we need to be vigilant and level headed."

As he was saying it, Tom (Tom the Mime) walked in, cradling a rat.

"Sorry I'm late chief. I found this poor little guy in a trap. Someone must have accidentally left it laying around, but it's ok. You're safe now little fella."

"Well, anyone except him..."

"Funny you should say that, because I've got a scoop that says you're the one to blame, 'Chief'" Ducky framed the last part with air quotes. "So it worries me that you'd be so quick to defend Tommy here. You know what I think? I think this conspiracy runs deep. Like, to the core. And I don't know who you've got mixed up in this, but I plan to end it now. I'll exterminate the real rat here!"

Ducky drew his gun, pointing it at Tom first. Tom just stared at his old pal, looking hurt. Al at least had the presence of mind to lower the gun arm. But nobody expected Ed to look up from the very serious conversation he was having with himself to pull out his Smith and Wesson and put a bullet right into Ducky's frontal lobe.

But nobody had time to be shocked, because at that moment the power went out and a shot was heard. When the lights came back up, the chief had a bullet hole to match the one that Ducky's blood seemed to be making a hasty exit through.

Al three cops stood with their guns drawn, Al and Ed glaring at each other. Each egging Tom on.

"Shoot him Tom! He's gotta be the mafia! He killed the chief. I know it."

"Nonsense. You saw this crazy bastard shoot down Ducky in cold blood. He's too dangerous to keep around. Shoot him Tom!"

"Do I have to kill one of you? I mean both of you look like such fine gentlemen. Disc Lorde, you said that Aventine even offered to let me sleep with the fishes. I don't know how he knew about my narcolepsy or my dreams of going scuba diving but it seems like such a nice thing to say."

"No you idiot, he means he's going to drown you. Haven't you ever watched a mafia movie? That's the oldest threat in the book."

"Wait, you mean it doesn't mean that? He was threatening me?"

"Obviously he was threatening you"

"Really?"
"Well in that case, I guess if one of you has to die, it'll be Aventine."


Tom pulled the trigger. And sure enough a search of the body yielded a note with instructions from the local don, as well as a wad of cash. It was clear that Al Ventini was indeed the mole they were looking for.

Aventine was killed. He was mafia. Cops win!

As for the roles,

Tom the Mime was the Naive Cop
Ducky999 was the Paranoid Cop
Disc Lorde was the Insane Cop
and DukeGod was the Sane Cop

So, who do you think was the mvp of this game? Go ahead and discuss it in thread, and I'll set up Heat two.

Also, Askthepizzaguy has officially signed up, so we only need one more player in order to have three heats. If you know of anyone that might be interested, let them know about the game!

[Penguinator]

Oh, put me back in, coach. Why not?

[Zjoot]

Awesome! Random number generator says that heat two will consist of Saposhiente, Sabeki, Lex Kat, Dr. Whooves and Studoku. The remaining five players will make up heat three.

I'll give the players from heat one some time to discuss mvp before sending out the roles for heat 2.

[Duck999]

Ducky999
Anyway, I think I was most definately the MVP.
In all seriousness-Tom
Disc and Aventine were both obviously going to vote for each other. Tom made the deciding vote (correctly I might add). He found good reasoning, and figured it out well.

[Aventine]

Tom the Mime really is the easy choice for MVP

[Disc Lorde]

Huh, I read Aventine's table wrong. That was a fun narration Zjoot.

Tom the Mime for MVP. He came up with our method of revealing information, made up those tables, and correctly deduced the Mafia on the final day.

[Duck999]

So Tom has a majority, and I think everyone except him (assuming max modesty) will choose him.
What? Do I not get MVP for taking one for the team?

[Disc Lorde]

Hehe. If you had suggested your own lynch and given a strategy whereby the town could succeed after your death, then you'd get major points for that. But no points for getting shot, sorry.

[Zjoot]

Yeah, I sort of expected that. Just wanted to make it official. Tom the Mime is the MVP for Heat 1, guaranteeing himself a spot in the finals!

I'm going to pm roles now.

EDIT: Roles sent. Please post here when you are ready to play.

[Lex-Kat]

A cute young woman with long flowing auburn hair skips down the street with gleeful abandon. She's wearing a cops uniform, but with a short skirt and petticoats. She stops in front of the first person she meets on the street, opens a bag full of candy and holds it up to them. Treat!?

[Tom the Mime]

Got it right . And in the finals with my new pet rat. If I'm not naive in it, the rat might even be the brains of the operation.

[DoctorWhooves]

This is where heat 2 will be playing right?

Finals are winding down so I am in and here.

[Saposhiente]

Still thinking about proper D1 reveal strategy, but ready to play.

[Zjoot]

I'll pm Sabeki and Studoku to make sure they know they need to post in thread. If I don't hear from them by tomorrow, then I'll replace them with people on the waiting list.

[Zjoot]

Alright, Sabeki has been replaced with Random_Person and Studoku has been replaced with Aric Kale. We can start as soon as both of them post to confirm participation. Please make sure to make the mental adjustment when considering your scry results.

[Fortuna]

Here and ready.

[Aric Kale]

Ashton McCallum, reporting for duty.

[Studoku]

Sorry I missed the start.

[Zjoot]

Sorry I missed the start.

That's fine. It's not a big deal. I hope you don't mind that I moved you to the next heat, I just want to keep things rolling as much as possible.

Anyways, now that we have everyone:

Heat two Day 1 has officially begun, and will end in just over 78 hours, or when one person has gotten three lynch votes. Happy hunting!

[Lex-Kat]

Alexia continues to skip along, approaching a Random Person. Pssst. I hear Doctor Whooves is innocent. Pass it along. she then continues along her merry way.