Apple WW

[braveheart]

May all your Christmases be filled with

FREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEDDDDOOOOOOOOOOOM

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm having a grand night. Exhausted, but grand.

I propose we spend the next 24 hours celebrating, resting, and/or having peaceful discussions. We can wait until the holiday ends for the paranoia-fueled vigilantism to continue.

Merry holiday to you all, my friends!

Okay, enough of all that mushy stuff. Let's make sure my votes this round will count.

Let's start off with...

@Firedaemon

While I do not believe that the vote record is a point in your favor, nor mine, the case I constructed on you doesn't hold water. Perhaps the only thing bugging me about you now is how resistant everyone seemed to be to vote for you. But, when I look at things from that angle, there are others in this game who people have been quite resistant to vote for, or even discuss as candidates.

Has your opinion changed much on who you suspect? Spoiler alert, it's not me, and none of the masons think it's me, and they have good reason not to. Please direct your attention to the stuff I just wrote to Penguinator, time is running out and we need to have at least two suspects today, one from each camp.

@Penguinator

You seem more reserved in this game than I recall you being. Day one, was a day one vote, which is fine. Day two was a poke at someone, but had no reason other than you wanted them to talk back. When they did, you left your vote there without giving a reason, and that was all you did that day. Then you directed suspicion at the Phantom while hedging your bet and saying it was his standard behavior. You did give reasons for your vote on Rain Dragon due to his vote record, which others followed you on, and were it not for a scry result, we would have lynched him. Then he got murdered, which was interesting because he assembled such a mass of votes against him that I would have thought there was no way he gets murdered so soon after. Big point in your favor would be how you did vote for the Crab Apple on the first day. You've been mostly undiscussed as a lynch candidate, and for a long while, I thought you were a mason, which is the reason I thought no one was discussing you, particularly Sprig... which is why I left that whole nest of bees alone. But you're not.

• If you are not the evil Red Apple, it's between Firedaemon and AvatarVecna. Your preference there?
• It's between Phantom, Vwulf, and Sphazre for the remaining evil apples. Your preference there?
• And if one team has two evil people, which one do you think it is?

@AvatarVecna

Same question posed to you, which red apple do you think is guilty? Which green? Do you have a third guess?

@Phantom

You've been largely overlooked as a suspect, but you did gain some votes from the remaining suspects, and you have also voted for some of the remaining suspects, which are points in your favor. Over many years I have found a slight pattern to wolf votes, which are that, by the end of many rounds, wolves will have voted for almost zero current suspects by the end of the game, whereas innocent people tend to vote for people who remain unresolved- the reason why is because of wolf strategy. Wolves leave people alive who innocent people suspect who are wrong to suspect, and also, they leave each other alive. Whereas wolves vote for people to lynch them, and then, murder those they can't lynch, and try not to piss off the remaining alive people too badly.

By that measure, you're the cleanest of the remaining alive suspects. Who do you suspect, Vwulf or Sphazre, and then, please select two of Avatar, Firedaemon, and Penguinator.

@Sphazre

Similar questions posed to you, although I'm mainly concerned on where you weigh in on the Avatar, Firedaemon, Penguinator group, because I'm fairly certain I already know where you stand on the green apple that is still a suspect for obvious reasons.

@Vwulf

Your thoughts on Avatar, Firedaemon, or Penguinator. You know who the green apple is who is a suspect, so I'm assuming that's your candidate for the evil green apple.

@Sprig
I'm leaving you off the list entirely for obvious reasons.

Where I stand right now:

By process of elimination, only 1 of the remaining green apples can be guilty. One is myself, one is a mason, and one is cleared of all suspicion. I'm also deliberately lumping the yellow mason somewhere in the green apples for protective reasons. And since I know myself, I'm not voting for me. If there are two evils on one team, which would make sense, given that in order for there to be a Purple apple, and an evil apple of each color besides yellow, and a crab apple, two of them must be red apples at this point. There's nowhere else they can fit. That's what I know, from where my notepad is, because I have the luxury of crossing myself off. However, the masons are also crossing me off, hint hint.

I've been speaking to AvatarVecna in private, because my assumption was that the red apples would not vote for other red apples at this point; largely, because of the number of likely evil apples contained within that group, who would rather keep alive the remaining innocent red apple so they have an extra vote. AvatarVecna, however, is on board with lynching said suspect or suspects. That's an interesting data point.

I did not contact Firedaemon or Penguinator, because of my long standing uncertainty about Firedaemon, and I left Penguinator alone for a long time because I thought he was a mason, and I had erroneously assumed that by talking to Sprig, I'd be getting Penguinator's opinion, especially since the two of them largely agreed on how to approach the game all game, and Penguinator never went after Sprig or vice-versa. But I was clearly mistaken on that point.

Of the yellows and greens, two are masons, and another one is clean. We're going to be leaving those people off of the lynch list for today, period.

Of the greens, one is likely guilty. Of the reds, either one, or two.

I will be voting after I have read your responses, or, sufficient time has passed without a response by a person I deeply suspect.

[Vwulf DeMarcus]

@Vwulf

Your thoughts on Avatar, Firedaemon, or Penguinator. You know who the green apple is who is a suspect, so I'm assuming that's your candidate for the evil green apple.

Okay. I remember a post with someone saying that it was very unlikely that Firedaemon and Braveheart were both good. So when Braveheart ended up town, I became a bit suspicious of Firedaemon. Penguinator hasn't really come up on any radar of mine at all, so I don't have thoughts on him. Avatar...is difficult to read for me. I don't think I have much to say about him either, but he'd be my second guess if Firedaemon is town.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Okay. I remember a post with someone saying that it was very unlikely that Firedaemon and Braveheart were both good. So when Braveheart ended up town, I became a bit suspicious of Firedaemon. Penguinator hasn't really come up on any radar of mine at all, so I don't have thoughts on him. Avatar...is difficult to read for me. I don't think I have much to say about him either, but he'd be my second guess if Firedaemon is town.

Do you have any suspicions strong enough to commit them to a vote? Was what I was about to ask, but reading your post, and letting it sink in, I can see that, no, you haven't really committed to suspecting someone.

My recommend is to go back and read each person, just their posts, and the context of their posts. Who did they suspect, who did they not suspect, who did they talk to, who did they ignore.

Often times we read the game as it happens, and are left with no conclusions even after several meaningful events. It doesn't happen as often to me, because I routinely do the re-reads.

It takes time and effort, but... here's what I'm looking for- when you read the game as it happened, on those days, you were reading it without the benefit of hindsight.

Now that the mafia have made the majority of the moves that they need to make in order to win the game, that leaves a trail of intent.

With the benefit of hindsight, and a much, much smaller suspects list, check out each of them, and read it looking for the intent. The intent to defeat the others, the intent to win the game for the mafia.

The only times you can't find such an intent is if they vote rather randomly, which is itself a tell.

You can find one or the other happening- one is a deliberate pushing to cause a mafia win, the other is a deliberate way of hiding in plain sight. One is an offensive style of mafia play, the other is defensive.

You can identify those things, much more readily, with hindsight, and a careful re-read. Trust your instincts. The only caveat is that innocent villagers can make posts which appear to be one or the other. But, it's possible that you could be torn between two candidates, but feel confident enough to drop one suspect from a list of three.

If your instincts are right, you just improved your odds of guessing right from 1:3 to 1:2. And keep in mind, it's actually more likely that the odds are 2:3, given the likelihood of a purple and a red apple who are both evil and masquerading as red good apples. So, you are aiming to reduce the odds to 2:2 today from 2 in 3.

That's worth a re-read. Or if re-read and analysis is not your style, I would still recommend committing a vote to paper. Take a guess if you have to. The odds are in your favor.

[Internet Flea]

I'm thinking if the rest of the players don't post by the scheduled end of the Day I'll extend this Phase another 72 hours, or until I'm convinced everyone's been able to contribute. I'll probably do the same for New Years week as well.

[Ionbound]

So...I think that Sphazre and one of either AvatarVecna or Penguinator is a wolf. Of those two, I am relatively sure that one of them should be voted today, and I rather suspect Vecna just on a hunch. So AvatarVecna is my vote for today, for now, at least.

[Sprig]

A vote, a vote, omg, omg! A vote!


I like it. In fact i will make it two.

Sphzare

[ThePhantom]

Sphzare, for me. As I've been saying, I mostly go by hunches and other people's work. So, here's hoping this is right, I'd been distracted by all the christmas stuff I got.

[Sprig]

Vwulf to keep our options open.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm thinking if the rest of the players don't post by the scheduled end of the Day I'll extend this Phase another 72 hours, or until I'm convinced everyone's been able to contribute. I'll probably do the same for New Years week as well.

I see from AV's signature line that he might not be available within the time limit, so, I have no issues waiting.

good or evil, since it's so critical that everyone from all teams gets a chance to vote, I'm in favor of extending the round until everyone votes. Penguin, AV, Sphazre, and Vwulf. And myself, but at least I've already had a chance to vote.

[Vwulf DeMarcus]

I think I'm going to go ahead and vote Firedaemon based on my previous "suspicions" or whatever you want to call them.

[sphazre]

Penguinator: He talks about as much as me and Vwulf, yet he's sparked at least one wagon. Either mason or wolf. Kinda worried about guessing wrong here.
Firedaemon: He wanted colour war in Day 1, which plays to wolf. Still not sure about the Aventine vote issue, but Sprig explained that somewhat.
AvatarVecna: Sprig seems to be pushing him as neutral or wolf. He seems to act neutral. Are there any neutrals?

[Askthepizzaguy]

If there are neutrals, they are probably hostile to just about everyone.

I've contacted almost everyone in the game and offered to help any neutrals, and also made it clear I'm only concerned with evil apples being lynched, and whatever else I can do to help, I would.

No one came forward.

So, at this point, any neutral in the game has a goal that they definitely don't want to share with good apples, not even if we offer to assist them in winning. That tells me they're dangerous and untrustworthy.

Last chance, last call.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Penguinator, poke poke poke.

I need something from you today buddy. You've got plenty of time, but I need something.

[Sprig]

IF - can you give us a time left indication?

[Internet Flea]

Um... 48 hours remaining?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Um... 48 hours remaining?

End of round approximately 11:59pm Monday December 29th?


-------------------------


Note: Penguinator is both a suspect and an inactive. Here's the issue.

a) If he's innocent, he will not be assisting us in lynching the baddies.
b) He's a suspect, and not lynching him could lose the game.

If Penguinator shows up and votes in a way that makes sense to me, I will remove my vote. Otherwise the inactivity forces my hand.

I will also reconsider if the vote tally changes significantly.

[AvatarVecna]

Hi, I'm back. Unfortunately, it's about 2 in the morning where I am right now and my IRL group has a game at noon I've been looking forward to. Just letting people know I'm still in this, and I'll be beginning a proper--and thorough--intent analysis in roughly...16 hours? That sounds about right.

A belated Merry Christmas to everyone, and a reminder to always be thankful for what you have.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Hi, I'm back. Unfortunately, it's about 2 in the morning where I am right now and my IRL group has a game at noon I've been looking forward to. Just letting people know I'm still in this, and I'll be beginning a proper--and thorough--intent analysis in roughly...16 hours? That sounds about right.

A belated Merry Christmas to everyone, and a reminder to always be thankful for what you have.

Welcome back, Avatar of Vecna.

May he reign Supreme. Hold the mushrooms.

[Askthepizzaguy]

About 22 hours remain.

Red apples:

Firedaemon willing to lynch AvatarVecna
AvatarVecna willing to lynch Firedaemon, iirc from speaking to him privately.
All suspects for the evil green apple willing to lynch Firedaemon.

So, that should tell you something about Firedaemon. Either innocent, or it was a planned event that Firedaemon would be lynched today for distancing purposes.

Fact: If Firedaemon is evil, literally all of FD's evil buddies are either voting for FD or have expressed an interest in doing so.

Sprig and Phantom splitting the vote on Wulf and Sphazre, pointing where the evil green apple likely is. Me pointing at Penguinator, with a caveat that I'd leave my vote there if he does not arrive.


This is stuff I want to highlight if I should be murdered tonight for some very strange reason.

I will have other last words, but consider this post my official last words.

- - - Updated - - -

Firedaemon, AvatarVecna: Your reactions.

[AvatarVecna]

Just making a quick reply to let people know what I'm up to: my thorough analysis is taking longer than I'd expected (a family dinner came up and sucked up most of my evening), but it's on the way. It's probably going to be a few hours, but I'm definitely finishing it before I go to bed. Once it's ready, I'll edit it into this post.

Once again, sorry I've been so unavailable the past few days.

Spoiler: firedaemon33

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Let's start out with FD's first in-game post; they voted for Fleeing Coward (the confirmed seer) because they didn't want to take the chance that FC was a wolf. While there's no way FD could've known FC was the seer at the time, the argument was shown fairly quickly to be based on a statistically unlikely train of thought. The vote remained, un-rescinded; preportedly, this was because FC had claimed that FD's vote was made as an overemotional reaction to FC's performance in previous games and had no basis in reality, the equivalent of calling FD a lunatic; while FD's vote may have indeed been made with no small amount of bias, FC's assertions did nothing to soothe the waters stirring between FD and himself.

Aventine (the confirmed crab apple) attempted to defend FC to FD, although little was accomplished in that regard; it should be noted that this instance of Aventine defending FC (as well as some later instances of the same) may have prompted FC to scry Aventine, in order to be certain the person on their side was actually on their side. After another few posts of back-and-forth between FD, FC, and Ramsus, Legato Endless came in as the voice of reason, trying (rightfully so) to point out the pointlessness of arguing the color war with so little information. This discussion did little but waste a lot of time discussing the theoretical statistics of a game just barely underway and the relative usefulness of a secondary scoring system that was of no real concern at the time; this discussion only served as a distraction from the true task of finding wolves, and lead to an even greater distraction.

While only a small side note, it should be noted that FC's original response compared FD's crazy voting to Ramsus' similar vote, which I believe to have sparked THE NOT-SO-GREAT DEBATE, which I will discuss in greater detail in Ramsus' analysis.

My final thoughts on this incident: this seemingly innocent comment sent the general train of thought flying dangerously close to off the tracks, but didn't actually derail the thought train itself; it did, however serve as a catalyst to the DEBATE that did just that. While it's understandable that a wolf would want to keep the focus off of the wolf hunt, and making character attacks is a good way to derail the wolf hunt, I would think that a wolf would try to get people attacking each others character rather than attacking a players character themselves; it makes the wolf less of a target for other player's ire, as well as making them seem less like the instigator.

That being said, I don't think that makes FD's actions here look suspicious; yes, a wolf would try to derail the wolf hunt, and yes, this was a good way to do it, and yes, it ended up with Ramsus and FC going at each others throats...but that seems like an awful lot of credit to give to a handful of short posts. I'm more inclined to think that this particular situation is exactly what's it's been presented as: a small little grudge vote that gained traction, sparked an inferno, and drudged up old arguments essentially by accident. It's possible that it was done with malicious intent, but if FD was a wolf, they would've used something a little more indirect than an off-hand comment that could just as easily have come back down on them.

What's certainly more suspicious is FD's relative quiet during the DEBATE they sparked; they avoided the main debate, voting for Legato Endless and claiming they'd switch onto FC (their original Day 1 vote) if someone else did; AvatarVecna voted for FC shortly thereafter, and FD followed suit, as promised. Oddly enough, this wish to avoid the tie has no connection to the rules of the game; ties can be resolved by the narrator in Werewolf, so this switch seems like an attempt to vote for FC without looking like they're holding a grudge. Then again, maybe I'm just reading too much into it (I've had to make my way through a lot of Ramsus and FC text-walls, and I've been going a little cross-eyed).

A little while later (after both Ramsus and FC had bowed out of the thread to get sleep), FD presented their short analysis of FC's response to their Day 1 vote: namely, an emotional response with next to no logic. Seeing as this was the first day, and their vote was clearly made with some bias, it actually ends up putting both of them in a bad light...at least, it would if FC hadn't flipped as seer; turning up seer tends to make you less suspicious, and the people who voted for you more so.

The next arguably suspicious thing FD has done was to immediately jump on the Aventine wagon, and put forth arguments to convince others of Aventine's wolf-hood, despite the definite possibility (at the time) that they might not be. Whether this assured behavior speaks to their trust in the seer claim or their backstabbing wolfish nature is unclear, but it's definitely worth deeper analysis by someone far more skilled at such things than I.

Other notes

So I didn't actually find this suspicious enough to consider it a "sign of potential wolf-hood", but...while researching firedaemon33's posts, I came across this little gem:

Alright. Since it seems to have been erroneously decided that I am not town, and I can't seem to do much to change people's minds, here's my plan B:

Looking at the vote tally for the day Aventine was lynched, people I'm suspicious of right now are: Braveheart, Vwulf Demarcus, Sphazre, AvatarVecna and Rammus/Ruki/Pizzaguy

Of those, the order of suspicion to me is as follows: Sphazre, AvatarVecna, Pizzaguy, Braveheart, Vwulf.

I don't trust how fast this wagon built on Braveheart, otherwise I absolutely would have supported it, I'm just...Really suspicious, especially with how hard Pizza is pushing it. Sphazre and AvatarVecna I'm suspicious of because the former didn't switch off of Aventine at all, and the latter seemed resistant to it until the last possible second: Plenty of time for Aventine to tell him to just give up.

As for you, Pizzaguy, you're in limbo. If Braveheart flips wolf, you're cemented in my mind as town. If he flips town, on the other hand, I'd be almost certain you're a wolf. And for the record, I might be a bit biased by Rammus' actions as well, especially since FC turned out to be the seer/fool.

...what?

I saw a seer claim, and immediately jumped on; I was the third to do so, but it was still within 15 minutes of the seer-claim. I was glad to have an actual clue for once that could lead to a wolf...whether it turned out to be Aventine, Rain Dragon, or Sprig (if Aventine had flipped town, those two were on my list). And then Fleeing Coward decides to jump ship because it didn't feel right. So I spend half an hour debating with FC, trying to convince him of how Aventine could be the wolf, and that we should test the seer claim, and he ends up convincing me to jump off the Aventine wagon.

And what does he do in the very next post? Jump right back on the Aventine wagon he's been arguing against for a half hour. At that point, I was sick of arguing, and just left to check less frustrating threads. Thankfully, Sprig sent me a PM convincing me to come back and change my vote again, just because if Aventine flipped crab apple, he might not get lynched and we'd have had to start over the very next day. I did as Sprig suggested, and as FC suggested, and what do you know? FC second thoughts that managed to convince me to have second thoughts of my own turned out to be complete bull poo. I'll say this: I'm grateful to Sprig for how they handled that; if FC and I hadn't been convinced to jump back on the wagon, Aventine might've lived to see another day, and we'd have another innocent apple dead at our hands.

But don't turn this around on me like I was the last person hanging to the sinking ship of a non-wolf.

Do I sound bitter? I admit, the whole FC wagon leaping thing kind of ticked me off at the time, to the point that I was just about ready to hang myself just to be done with this game.

Spoiler: Ramsus/Askthepizzaguy

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Ugh...

Spoiler: Vwulf Demarkus

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Let's see...

A day 1 vote for AvatarVecna, which means absolutely nothing so early in the game; far more likely that this is simply a vaguely random vote intended to show that they're voting on the first day. Nothing suspicious, but nothing good either. A vote for FC on day 2, with a "gut feeling" explanation; it was replaced later by a vote for Legato Endless, with a "Avoid FC and Ramsus" explanation; that was, itself, replaced by a "no vote", which was their final vote the day the baner was lynched.

With the coming of the new day came a new bandwagon on Fleeing Coward, which Vwulf once again considers acceptable to join, despite abandoning said wagon so as not to take a side in the "FC vs Ramsus" debate.

I came across another solid gem in this thread. Here:

Oh I agree that I'm probably more harm than good to the town, even though I'm not a wolf. I don't know how y'all think yet. I'm effectively new, though I'm not new to the gametype. I basically have been following those who make the most sense to me and throwing out ideas. So if you think I'm voting badly, a) so be it, and b) I pretty much don't know any better. As I write each new post I think "Wow, this sounds really wolfy, but I'm too lazy to change it. Oh well." So I guess I'm not surprised that I'm being voted for.

Wow. That is...appallingly suspicious. I must admit, if Vwulf is a wulf...sorry, a wolf...then this is them rubbing it in our faces twice in the same post. I haven't seen that since Aventine did the exact same thing. So...yeah, that happened. Anyway, back to the post analysis...

Oh look, a vote for Rain Dragon (who was confirmed fool). I don't know what to think of their wolfish read on Aventine; there's ways to make sense of it whether they're town or wolf. Oh look, a vote for braveheart, who flipped town. Oh look, a vote for today (in-game) that didn't result in them voting for anybody...which is quickly replaced with a vote for FD, since they knew they'd get called on not voting for anybody...again.

Spoiler: AvatarVecna

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Ugh...

Spoiler: ThePhantom

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There's unfortunately very little to go on from ThePhantom, since they've posted so rarely. While I've been informed that this is their standard playstyle, I've been rather suspicious of them for a while now. I'll try not to let my gut feeling cloud my suspicions on this matter, but I make no promises; a rather well-spoken pizza man enlightened me to the advantages of ignoring the facts of reality following my feelings.

First post: a vote for braveheart, who turned out to be a townie.

Second post: a vote for Tanar Aerdoth, who turned out to be a baner. It should be noted that this was just a few posts after Penguinator started the Tanar wagon.

Third post: a vote for Penguinator, who is still around. It should be interesting that this was immediately after AvatarVecna pointed out the connection above. I repeat: as soon as a connection between ThePhantom and Penguinator was suggested in-thread, ThePhantom voted for Penguinator. Make of that what you will.

Fourth post: a vote for Aventine, who flipped crab apple. They were the second to do so, and did so at virtually the same time as the person to first jump on that wagon. Vaguely suspicious, but less so than the above.

Fifth post: another vote for braveheart. Who flipped town.

Sixth post: a vote for sphazre, who is still alive. Don't know what to make of it.

All in all, I find ThePhantom to be pretty suspicious, and while their silence is a decent shield, their moments of speech seem too consistently odd to ignore.

Spoiler: Penguinator

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First in-game post is a vote for the crab apple; seeing as no one would take a first day vote seriously (except the narrator, who kind of has to take the first day votes seriously), this could be a cunning plan to immediately distance the two wolves...or it could just be a random vote. I think, in my hyper-combination of bitter thoughts and 3 a.m. madness, I'm just getting really paranoid.

Next post is a thorough analysis of the lay-of-the-land. Thank you, Penguinator, for giving me a voice of reason to soothe my soul as I scroll past these walls of emotion-laden text for the umpteenth time. Thank you so very, very much. I'm not even being sarcastic, or anything, I really mean that. It's like a breath of fresh air in a room of farts. Of course, this doesn't change the fact that your rather well-informed vote was for Tanar, who flipped baner, as well as your possible connection to ThePhantom, you jumped on the Tanar wagon pretty quickly. Still, your analysis makes you seem like less of a suspect than I originally thought you were.

The next few posts are also breaths of fresh air; each one in succession makes you seem more and more trustworthy; you give a shout-out to the person you're voting for, you point out how the subject of a quick bandwagon hasn't had the chance to defend themselves, and all without jumping on said bandwagon yourself. If you are indeed a wolf, you're a level-headed and well-mannered one. Once again, breath of fresh air.

The next post is much later, but is still chock-full of useful insight and analyses, showing Penguinator to be one of the better players the town has (assuming they're town, of course). Unfortunately, once again Penguinator has started a wagon that, while not actually resulting in a lynch, would've lynched the fool had it succeeded; make of that what you will. Penguinator switched onto the Aventine scry, but they did so fairly late, and managed to bring up how similar Aventine's voting record was to Rain Dragons (who, to clarify, flipped as town).

Reasonable post, reasonable post, reasonable post. That's pretty much Penguinators modus operandi, folks. Next to Sprig, this is my least suspected person ATM.

Spoiler: Sprig

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Ugh...

Spoiler: sphazre

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Let's see...

Completely missed the first day. Short post jumping on a bandwagon for no apparent reason, short post not explaining their vote, short post not explaining their vote, short vote saying "what they said" as their explanation...and only when they were called out on having no stated reason for voting. Last minute jump on the Tanar bandwagon, with no stated reason, short explanation of "what they said" provided only when called on their last-minute vote. The shortest speech of self-defense I've ever heard in a werewolf game, accompanying a vote for Rain Dragon (who was confirmed as the fool later on).

Ooh! You know what says more than their short posts? The fact that they had nothing to say during the Aventine bandwagon. Some people might say "eh, maybe they just weren't on", but I was watching: the little dot next to their name was lit up green throughout the whole debacle (IIRC), and yet they remained silent. They didn't switch onto Aventine, they didn't argue against him, they didn't say anything.

Let's see...short post with a placeholder vote for braveheart (who flipped town), short post "explaining" why they don't post more (Your theories never work out? You barely say anything, much less put forth theories!) A general Merry Christmas (a belated Merry Christmas to you, sphazre). Oh! Finally, a lengthy post explaining sphazre's thoughts!...and their vote is based on something said on day 1, about the color war. Okay, what the hell...just about nothing on day 1 can really be taken seriously! I only find it vaguely suspicious because it's possible, albeit extremely unlikely, that FD's day 1 activities were the work of a super-clever wolf, rather than a vaguely vengeful townsperson. But of all the things they could've pointed to as being suspicious, they stuck with literally the oldest serious point of debate in the thread? It seems...I don't want to say suspicious, but it's not putting sphazre in a very flattering light.

The only other possible "sign of wolf-hood" here is to compare to ThePhantom: I've been told that TP's quiet nature in this thread is actually standard for them; on the other hand, sphazre has actually said that they're usually more quiet than this, indicating something different going on in this game.

Okay, so there's 3 active players I haven't yet analyzed: Ramsus/ATPG, Sprig, and myself. For those of you waiting on tenderhooks for my thoughts on those three players (probably no one), rest assured that I will analyze their posts. At the moment, however, I am far too tired, bitter, and cross-eyed to give a proper analysis of these players and their posts. However, I've already got my general conclusions about them in my head, so I'll go ahead and cast my vote.

Of the players I've analyzed, my top two suspicious characters are ThePhantom and sphazre. Both post infrequently, jump on bandwagons, lurk in the thread, and contribute few original theories of their own. The difference between them is that, while ThePhantom has been quiet, people have said that it's their usual level of quiet. On the other hand, sphazre has actually flat-out stated that they're usually much quieter when they play werewolf. For these reasons, I cast my vote thusly: sphazre, I accuse you!

P.S.: Read that last line while thinking of the pokemon catch-phrase "I choose you!" and it becomes roughly 22% funnier, if I've run the math correctly.

[Sprig]

Cheers, Avatar. If you choose Spahze, can i send in Vwulf to Duel him? I want some sort of area battle style where there is a great chance both of them die.

As long as this day has been, we finally at a place where we can think about the voting pattern a bit more. but not right now for me :(

[Ionbound]

I am perfectly willing to lynch AV, Sphazre, or Vwulf today as I'm fairly certain at least one of them, if not more, are evil. That said, I also have had no private communications in this game outside of the one I got from Sprig when we CFD'd Aventine, and the one I sent to you the other day. Which makes me think that if AV claimed that, he was lying to try to get me lynched. Hence, my vote will not switch off of AV.

[Askthepizzaguy]

That was beautiful work, AvatarVecna.

Unfortunately, I heartily concur with Firedaemon at this point.

Looking at the voting pattern today, it's rather quite clear that everyone was on board with my plan to put votes on Firedaemon. Edit- meaning, remaining suspects for green.

FD, it's not a coincidence. And forgive me, but it was rather necessary. I needed to see intent.

What I mean by that is simple- there is a move, or option of moves today, which the evil apples can make which will result in an evil apple victory. And, if the good green apple is on board with the move, and another good green apple is on board with the move, then why in the world wouldn't the red and green evil apples be on board with the move?

And so, there was little or no resistance to lynching Firedaemon, a plan which originated from a good green apple, myself, based on the suspicions I laid out in previous rounds, despite the fact that I no longer thought those reasons were valid.

On the other hand, literally no one but myself thought it was a good idea to lynch Penguinator, even after I gave indications that I thought he was an evil red apple, and furthermore, gave justification for lynching him even if he were a villager, meaning that as an inactive, he's not helping us win, so I provided just the perfect excuse for people to follow me. No one did. And he has yet to show.

And only Firedaemon, of the red apples, was willing to lynch AvatarVecna, of the red apples.

That tells me something, which is that (a) Penguinator is likely legitimately inactive, so we'll get another shot on him tomorrow even if we are wrong today [which is the correct and winning logic for village, not the nonsense I stated earlier] and (b) Firedaemon is not only an innocent red apple, but the only one still playing for village and looking for the evil red apple. And ironically enough, (c) The only red apple more concerned with finding the evil red apple, rather than try to keep the color score even.

I had doubts about leaving FD alone, even if FD was innocent, due to earlier stated objectives vis-a-vis color victory.

At this point, Firedaemon has just proved to me, to my satisfaction, two of the following pertinent facts:

1) Still hunting evil red apples, and is not one.

2) Fighting for a village victory rather than the color rivalry stuff, which was my sole reservation remaining.


That seals things for me. I'm confident that the results of this round are as effective as a true seer result on Firedaemon, for all intents and purposes. And since AV did not narrow it down for me any further than that, by putting a vote on Penguinator, I have to assume that he needs to have at least one other red apple suspect alive in order to have a legit shot at winning the game.

I also spent a lot of time speaking to AV behind the scenes, and everything I said should have made him quite confident that this next move was unlikely, so he could feel at ease in revealing his true feelings via his vote today.

(Again, why I wanted to do a wait and see.)


Avatar of Vecna, your reign of terror ends here. I believe I have all the evidence I need that the green evil apple doesn't want you dead, and that Firedaemon is interested in causing the lynch of both evil apples remaining.

AvatarVecna

FD, my apologies for that terrible case I made on you before.

[Logic]

11 hours remain

[Askthepizzaguy]

11 hours remain

[AvatarVecna]

@Sprig

I'd rather avoid the trial-by-combat approach; it seems pretty unlikely that they're both wolves, so killing both would just result in another dead villager, and might not even result in a dead wolf. Better to just hang 'em by their necks one at a time.

Incidentally, I suppose it's too much to ask for you to please tell them that you did, in fact, PM me during the whole Aventine thing? Figured I may as well as ask, even though I'm pretty sure I know what the answer will be.

@firedaemon33

Sprig did PM me, reminding me of the crab apple's special ability, so I switched back onto Aventine. Unfortunately (for me), the only one who can confirm this is Sprig, who's been targeting me for a while now, so I can't depend on them to vouch for me. Of the people I'm suspicious of, you're fourth on the list; regardless of how stupid I think you've been throughout this game, I don't think they're a wolf, and haven't at any point tried to get them lynched, so this is just another beautiful little turd of a lie from them besmirching my character.

@ATPG

You're right, I didn't vote for Penguinator. At the time, your arguments made sense, but looking back through the archives, I didn't see a wolf trying to hide, I saw a villager being helpful to the village. I've never really cared about the color war, and haven't even attempted to keep track of who is what color, so all I've got to trust on Penguinator being red is your word; I already suspected that you were bull****ting me with your Penguinator argument, and you've just admitted that it was all a lie, so **** your worthless word.

I'm done defending myself, this game went down the toilet a long while back. Good luck dying you clueless little sheep.

AvatarVecna

Bitch and moan, bitch and moan. I never change...

[Askthepizzaguy]

Spoiler

Show

OOG- My apologies, AV. All movements made in-game were intended to be for gaming purposes only, never to cause any actual personal offense.

[ThePhantom]

Well, that's a nice analysis there. A pity that I got a tip about the bad apples, AvatarVecna.

[Vwulf DeMarcus]

I got me a tip too. Sorry AvatarVecna.