Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)

[Eloel]

That statement is false. Actually, up to 3 minions accepted.
Axl could be minion, and some two of tanar/duck/logic could be the two minions in Bag Two.
This case would strongly imply that Eloel was the 2nd minion in Bag One, and mean that Troll is loyal.


Again, not certain. That up to 3 minions possibly accepted means you can't say for sure 2 minions rejected.

Even if Axl is a minion, that leaves one other person from the failing team that still needs to be a minion. Since Troll is also a minion, that is 2 minions rejecting the team.

Also, I'm not considering the case where Eloel is a minion, because, well, I know that I am not. You are welcome to consider the case.

[Tris]

I'll get to posting some thoughts tomorrow morning.

[Tris]

Sorry I didn't get around to this today. I definitely will tomorrow.

[Lex-Kat]

Lex-Kat's public declaration of 'I'm going to approve and I hope it fails' made me nervous. In that world, if the 4 people on the team accepted it, and the minions know one person was going to approve it no matter what, if there is a minion on the team only one other person outside the mission needs to approve of it, I got scared.

Besides, having missions get rejected doesn't cost the good guys anything. I reasonably trust Tanar, who gets to make the next mission, as does most of the table at this point.

Also welcome back Duck, any thoughts?

Why should by declaration make you nervous? What I say, and what I do are obviously two different things. Chaos is my lady, and I follow her down the path of righteousness.

[Logic]

OK Tanar, I have seen you post in a few other places, yet you haven't come back around here for a team proposal? Is this nefariousness, laziness, or apathy?

EDIT: My bad; you posted ONCE in Mutineers Werewolf.

[Duck999]

OK Tanar, I have seen you post in a few other places, yet you haven't come back around here for a team proposal? Is this nefariousness, laziness, or apathy?

EDIT: My bad; you posted ONCE in Mutineers Werewolf.

And a post here takes much, much more time.

[Tris]

I'm back now. Hold on.

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Hey, axl? Why did you support the mission? Same question for Duck.

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Also, what do people think of a mission with me, Eonas, Troll and Legato?

[Legato Endless]

Why should by declaration make you nervous? What I say, and what I do are obviously two different things. Chaos is my lady, and I follow her down the path of righteousness.

I don't think I've ever heard to those two concepts being paired in a metaphor before.

Also, what do people think of a mission with me, Eonas, Troll and Legato?

Replace Eonas with Logic and I'll agree to it. Or you could suggest someone else. Lex would also be a deal breaker, and we shouldn't have El and Troll at the mission at the same time.

[axl]

Hey, axl? Why did you support the mission?

Due to a couple of reasons. I already mentioned them briefly but let me expand

On the other hand, having minion/s reject this early does give me pause and make me suspect that there is a chance that this might be an all-loyal team.

Early public rejections from people that I had reasons to believe were minions (from my perspective at least)
- jojolagger (member of mission 2 which gives him 66.7% chance of being a minion)
- Eloel (also a member of mission 2, add to that the whole LotL concealment thing)
- Legato (upvoted 2 missions containing at least 1 minion, and for generally being passive this game, which is very different from how he played last game when he was loyal)

Although Logic's later post that Legato is currently undergoing some personal reasons that make him inactive does make me rethink my suspicion of him.

Legato, whatever it is you're going through, I hope you overcome it and come out of it fine (and stronger too).

One thing that kind of bothers me is that the 2 proposals for this round have been similar to each other (from my perspective at least) and I believe that even if we get to the fifth, the proposals will not be much different from each other so I may have to approve something soon or else be forced to accept a team that I really really don’t want.

I had a feeling that all proposals for this mission will be similar to each other (one not-me member from second quest plus three non-members). Also looking at the leader order, if we move down the ladder, we might be forced to accept Duck's or Lex's team, 2 players who, like Legato, are also under suspicion for upvoting 2 missions containing at least 1 minion.

[Legato Endless]

Legato, whatever it is you're going through, I hope you overcome it and come out of it fine (and stronger too).

Thanks.

[Rofltrollcopter]

Why the distrust for Logic?

[Eloel]

Also, what do people think of a mission with me, Eonas, Troll and Legato?

Troll is a minion, and I suspect Eonas is too. Not supportive of the idea.

[Lex-Kat]

I'll down vote any pairing of Logic and Troll. But I'm evil, according to most, so do what you like.

[Duck999]

I'm back now. Hold on.

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Hey, axl? Why did you support the mission? Same question for Duck.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, what do people think of a mission with me, Eonas, Troll and Legato?

Mainly in hopes of information gathering. It was one of the better teams I had seen, and I didn't want loyal to get to the point where they had to accept a mission the didn't want to.

I don't like this one because I'm worried about Legato. We only really know what missions he accepted and rejected, and we have no other information on him.

[Eonas]

I'm still uncomfortable about Troll being on the team - it's why I Rejected the last mission. I've made the pro-"Eloel and Troll might both be minions" arguments several times now - and, I think, adressed any objections to them, albeit with a "it's not precisely damning" qualifier attached to it. What really made me freak out was Eloel's statement here:

The general idea seemed to be that it was an xor condition. I presented the math that if someone believed in the xor condition, the math on picking one of us is better than picking neither of us. The group seems to have agreed to that, and has been backing Troll. Which is bad, yes, but at least it's logically sound.

(Emphasis mine)
If Eloel is loyal (and therefore, necessarily believes Troll to be a minion), or is a minion and wants us to believe Troll is a minion, then why's he defending the reasoning behind having Troll on the team suddenly? He qualifies that with "which is bad, yes", but that's obligatory. Saying "XYZ is a bad idea because that's how it looks from my point of view, believe me!" is logically meaningless, like saying "I'm telling the truth right now". But saying "The logic leading up to the statement 'XYZ is a good idea' is sound" actually is a logically meaningful way to say "XYZ is a good idea". So essentially, Eloel just said 'Having Troll on the team is a good idea'. Which is weird, because again, if he's loyal, he should be attacking the idea of Troll being on the team, and if he's a minion and Troll's not, then he should also be attacking the idea of Troll being on the team.

Right?

[jojolagger]

He's saying it's bad that Troll is included, but that assuming only one of him and Troll are minions, the math says it's better to have one of them on a team.

Basically saying people are playing the odds rationally, but betting on the wrong side of the 50-50.

[Eloel]

He's saying it's bad that Troll is included, but that assuming only one of him and Troll are minions, the math says it's better to have one of them on a team.

Basically saying people are playing the odds rationally, but betting on the wrong side of the 50-50.

Can I hire you as a translator? You're doing an awesome job at it.

[jojolagger]

Can I hire you as a translator? You're doing an awesome job at it.

It is a very useful talent. Shame I only speak one language.


Eonas is still on the team, I still don't like it.

[Tris]

I don't like this one because I'm worried about Legato. We only really know what missions he accepted and rejected, and we have no other information on him.

Isn't that true of any player not on the double fail mission aside from Troll?

[Eloel]

Isn't that true of any player not on the double fail mission aside from Troll?

Until you propose a new group, yes.

[Duck999]

Isn't that true of any player not on the double fail mission aside from Troll?

Other people have been talking much more. I understand that life happens, but that still means we know less about him. I suppose the same argument could be made about me.

[Eonas]

He's saying it's bad that Troll is included, but that assuming only one of him and Troll are minions, the math says it's better to have one of them on a team.

Basically saying people are playing the odds rationally, but betting on the wrong side of the 50-50.

Yeah, but Eloel should be doing everything in his power to demonstrate to us why Troll's a minion. Because from his point of view, having Troll on the team is worse than having neither Troll nor Eloel on the team. Which does raise some questions as to why Eloel hasn't really been attacking Troll all that much, and has instead just been saying "I believe Troll's a Bad Guy but you should keep one among the two of us on the team".

Also, I've just checked your math that you posted a long time ago:

If you remove us as 1 minion and 1 loyal, one of the following must be true:

1- Troll is a minion

5 out of mission 2, 4 loyals and 1 non-loyal
3 in mission 2, 1 loyal and 2 non-loyal

That's a 20% chance of loyal-only mission, no matter how you cut it.

On a 4/0 split, probability of success: (4 Combination 4)/(5 Combination 4)=20%
On a 3/1 split, probability of success: (1/3)*(4 Combination 3)/(5 Combination 3)=1/3*4/10=2/15=13%
By the way, the 4 Combination 3 represents all the possible successful configurations of Group 2, and 5 Combination 3 represents all the possible (not just successful) configurations of Group 2.
On a 2/2 split, probability of success: 0%, because there will be at least one nonloyal in mission 2.

2- I am a minion

5 out of mission 2, 3 loyals and 2 non-loyal
3 in mission 2, 2 loyals and 1 non-loyal

On a split of 3/1, this gives 7% chance. On a split of 2/2, this gives 10% chance.

On a 3/1 split, probability of success: (2/3)*(3 Combination 3)/(5 Combination 3)=2/3*1/10=1/15=7%
On a 2/2 split, probability of success: (1/3)*(3 Combination 2)/(5 Combination 2)=1/10=10%
So you're entirely correct there.

OPTION 3- You are both minions:
5 out of mission 2, 4 loyals and 1 non-loyal
3 in mission 2, 2 loyals and 1 non-loyal

On a 3/1 split, probability of success: (2/3)*(4 Combination 3)/(5 combination 3)=2/3*4/10=4/15=27%
On a 2/2 split, probability of success: (1/3)*(4 Combination 2)/(5 combination 2)=1/3*6/10=1/5=20%

On the other hand, if you do not remove us and do pick one (and only one) of us:
1- Troll is a minion
a- You pick Troll
0% chance
b- You pick me
5 out of mission 2, 4 loyals and 1 non-loyal
3 in mission 2, 1 loyal and 2 non-loyals
With everyone else coming from out of mission, 40% chance.

a- 0%, obviously
b- On a 3/0 split: (4 Combination 3)/(5 combination 3)=4/10=40%
On a 2/1 split: (1/3)*(4 Combination 2)/(5 combination 3)=1/3*6/10=20%
So you're correct there, again.

2- I am a minion
a- You pick me
0% chance
b- You pick Troll
5 out of mission 2, 3 loyals and 2 non-loyal
3 in mission 2, 2 loyal and 1 non-loyal.
Best pick is a split of 2/1 here, which gives 20% chance.

a- 0%, obviously
b- On a 3/0 split: 1/10=10%
On a 2/1 split: (2/3)*(3 combination 2)/(5 combination 2)=2/3*3/10=20%
On a 1/2 split: (1/3)*(1/5)=1/15=7%

And option 3- You are both minions
a- We pick either one of you
0% chance.

Possibilities:	Troll is a minion	Eloel is a minion	Both are minions
Troll is on team	0%	20%	0%
Eloel is on team	40%	00%	0%
Neither on team	20%	10%	27%

So, the decision of whether we keep one of the two on the team is not nearly as clear-cut as Eloel claims.

Other people have been talking much more. I understand that life happens, but that still means we know less about him. I suppose the same argument could be made about me.

Yeah, but Legato moreso. To begin with, it'd be great to have a list of the people Legato most suspects?

[Eloel]

On a 3/1 split, probability of success: (1/3)*(4 Combination 3)/(5 Combination 3)=1/3*4/10=2/15=13%
By the way, the 4 Combination 3 represents all the possible successful configurations of Group 2, and 5 Combination 3 represents all the possible (not just successful) configurations of Group 2.

A 4/0 mission is 20% chance of success here, so 13% is irrelevant.

And my post clearly ran on the assumption that one of us was a minion. Yes, there is also a probability that we're both minions, but there's no choice to be made at that point - you just ignore us both.

Edit:
I just realized where I screwed up my math with the 13%
1/3 chance from group 1 - that's not arguable.
We pick 3, leave 2 out. 1 of them is minion, we have a 60% chance of having picked the minion. When you use 0.60*(1/3) instead of the (1-0.60)*(1/3) as you should, you end up with 20%. Apologies on that, but again, it doesn't matter.

[Logic]

I'm back now. Hold on.

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Hey, axl? Why did you support the mission? Same question for Duck.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, what do people think of a mission with me, Eonas, Troll and Legato?

I like all on that team but Legato. Myself or Duck would be preferred to replace him.

[Duck999]

I like all on that team but Legato. Myself or Duck would be preferred to replace him.

I'd prefer myself over Logic (for obvious reasons), but I would prefer either replacement. The problem is this may be our only way to gather information. I feel like it's better to switch him out and be better safe than sorry.

[Eonas]

A 4/0 mission is 20% chance of success here, so 13% is irrelevant.

Oh yeah, you're entirely right. Edited.

And my post clearly ran on the assumption that one of us was a minion. Yes, there is also a probability that we're both minions, but there's no choice to be made at that point - you just ignore us both.

And that was kind of my point. The whole thing about you both sort of erasing the possibility that you were both minions.

And, uh, Logic, that's exactly the same team as last time. I'm sort of okay with that arrangement, though - it's just Troll's presence in it that makes me uneasy, despite the fact that he did Reject both Quest 1 and Quest 2's teams with me. I'd be totally comfortable with one of you two replacing him, though.

[smashbro]

You switched the numbers. 6 Rejected, 4 accepted.

Turns out that's how math works Sorry bout that, fixed.

[axl]

It is a very useful talent. Shame I only speak one language.

Are you sure you only speak one language? You seem to be very fluent in English, Eloelian, & Eonese

Just playing around, no offense meant to my three mission 2 companions.

IC:
"But seriously, the 2 minions among you better 'fess up now if you know what's good for you.
We promise we'll make it easy for you and put you under our excellent witness protection program as long as you step forward now and rat out the other good-for-nothing traitors that are working with you."

[Logic]

Oh yeah, you're entirely right. Edited.



And that was kind of my point. The whole thing about you both sort of erasing the possibility that you were both minions.

And, uh, Logic, that's exactly the same team as last time. I'm sort of okay with that arrangement, though - it's just Troll's presence in it that makes me uneasy, despite the fact that he did Reject both Quest 1 and Quest 2's teams with me. I'd be totally comfortable with one of you two replacing him, though.

I thought for sure I had replied to this, but then I realized my computer crashed on me yesterday (hooray for shared workstations!)

Yes, that is my point. I presently trust Troll, Tanar, you and Duck. Legato, Lex-Kat and Eloel are the only players I am currently highly suspicious of. That leaves axl and jojolagger as my unknowns, with a higher suspicion on jojolagger than axl.

[axl]

Also, what do people think of a mission with me, Eonas, Troll and Legato?

Any particular reason for taking out Logic from the last proposal and replacing him with Legato?

Replace Eonas with Logic and I'll agree to it.

So, by endorsing a Tanar/Troll/Legato/Logic team, are you saying that the 2 minions outside of second mission are Lex and Duck?