Results 421 to 450 of 581
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2015-05-07, 02:43 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2006
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- WA, USA
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Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
I'll also add this: If Duck or Lex are minions expecting their team to be accepted, it is in their best interest to propose a team consisting of themselves and then only loyal members afterwards. This assumption does not apply to Quest 4, where team evil needs 2 minions on the team.
However, if Duck or Lex are loyal, then anyone else could be part of team evil. Just something to keep in mind.
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2015-05-07, 03:21 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Nov 2008
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- PST (GMT -8)
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2015-05-07, 05:31 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2015
- Location
- Somewhere South of Hell
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
Alright, new-Tanar reporting for action!
"I apologise for my extended absence. I had urgent matters to attend to. Regardless, I have returned, and have thoughts to share.
First, some general thoughts on strategy-
a) If we get good enough information from this quest, we can win the next two quests.
b) One assumption I've seen unspoken and that I know to be false from personal experience- minions will not always vote fail, and will not necessarily all vote fail if they are on a quest together. This seems to be an assumption many have made, and which is blatantly false. Banking on it may well lose the Loyalists the game.
c) There seems to be an assumption going around that the minions will play perfectly. That's not true, their information isn't perfect. For one thing, Oberon is thrown into the mix. For another, the players have imperfect communication, unlike many other such games, and so are limited in their co-operation.
My opinions on who the minions are goes something like this- Eloel, jojo, Lex and one other. My reasoning for each is as follows.
Eloel- The lady of the lake affair, primarily. Pure maths gives him a 50/50, without anything else. He was the new player on the failed, quest, though...
Lex- is supporting Eloel, who I believe to be a minion, and is behaving in a minionish manner to my eyes. The general sullen behaviour and that indicates a more minion outlook.
Jojo- Okay, I'll admit to some gut feeling here, but gut feeling is often based on subconscious thought, and I personally trust my gut.
I don't really trust Troll, but I don't have any specific charges to lay there, either. Although again, the behaviour there indicates deceptiveness and sneakiness, which indicate a more minionish outlook to me.
So, why not anyone else? Primarily because they haven't done anything hugely suspicious, but some more specific arguments are as follows.
Eonas- For one thing, people I don't trust- namely Eloel and Troll- have been on his case for reasons that I don't accept, and have been largely ignoring his counter-arguments in favour of repetition of their attacks. I agree that his voting pattern was strange, and I don't agree with the logic behind it, as all continued voting does there is tell you play style and suchlike, but I don't think that it's a sensible minion strategy. What do the minions gain from that? Voting on the first quest gives little to no information on alignment, since selections for the first quest are essentially random, but I digress. The peculiarity of voting isn't a good argument for Eonas being a minion. The "obfuscation" is just RP in a slightly more eloquent format, as I see it. Likewise for the declaration of hatred. If it makes you feel any better, Eonas, I quite liked that little rant.
All things considered, I'm going to vote yes on Duck's quest. It's a good set.
Also, if people could tell me their stances on the game and other players, my previous self included, it would be appreciated.Last edited by Silent_Interim; 2015-05-07 at 05:34 PM. Reason: Minor clarification and addition of RP
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2015-05-07, 06:24 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2009
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- PST
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Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
Old Tanar was very quiet.
You seem to be thinking this through while also trusting instinct. That bodes well. But you're trusting Eonas over me. That does not.
If Lex had quit, I'd have her marked down as loyal. Be she didn't, so it was just creating distracting drama...
Leaning towards Axl being the other loyal minion in quest 2, but not sure of it. Troll likes shooting down my suggestions. (He has publicly condemned every team I've suggested in every game of Avalon I've played. All 2 of them... )
Don't have strong opinions on the others. Aside from Eonas, but I've said that before, and probably won't be able to do more convincing without more.
The game seems to have enough people present that it stalls quite easily.
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2015-05-07, 08:15 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2006
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- WA, USA
- Gender
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2015-05-07, 08:34 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2009
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- PST
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2015-05-07, 09:29 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2006
- Location
- In the shadows
- Gender
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2015-05-08, 01:12 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Feb 2015
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
Sad to see Tanar go, but welcome to this game, Silent_Interim. I see that you're keeping Sir Tristram's persona.
"Welcome back Sir Tristram. Not much has actually happened since you left except that your proposal was rejected by half of the group and now Sir Immer is proposing that you accompany him together with Count Troll and Sir Fidious on our next quest."
Please elaborate on this. What do you think would be considered as "good enough information" and how would it translate to winning the next two quests?
Sorry but I believe you have this mistaken. Troll has actually supported Eonas vocally, and I don't recall Eloel badgering Eonas either. Maybe you mean Jojo and Legato? They seem to be the two people mostly convinced of Eonas' treachery.
I think that you(/Tanar) are loyal, for what it's worth.
Also, sorry but if you don't mind, I have a couple more questions.
1. When you were reading and formulating your theories, were you already aware of Tanar's role/alignment? If not, did you try to re-read the thread after confirming your role and did anything change regarding your insight?
2. If you had jumped in before Tanar submitted his proposal, what would you have proposed?Last edited by axl; 2015-05-08 at 01:12 AM.
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2015-05-08, 07:32 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2015
- Location
- Somewhere South of Hell
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
Apologies. I didn't make my point correctly. If we have perfect information, and we are absolutely certain of the identities of the minions, then we have won the next two quests even if this quest fails.
I think it unlikely that we will have perfect information after this, but I hope it's a loyal team.
I'm not certain of Troll, I'll concede, but Eloel definitely pursued him. I don't remember perfectly clearly about the others, but unless either of us can clearly present quotes showing either way, and I do not have the time to go back through and check, it's a moot point. Fact is, I trust Eonas more than the other Q2ers.
Aw, thanks!
No, I was not aware of his alignment until right up before my first wall of text after confirmation of replacement, although he was trusted by enough people in enough camps that I thought he/I was/were probably loyal. I have not and have no intention of going back over the thread, because I don't have time.
...You know, I have no idea. I'm not good at that kind of juxtaposition, placing myself into earlier situations and making judgements like that. Probably not the team he put together, though. I am willing but not able to say.
Aww, don't be like that! I'm sure that we all love you very much.
I'm still open to negotiation on this front, but I think condemnation of the trivialities is suspicious.
That's largely my reasoning. I'm still very open to persuasion.
May I ask why? I don't see compelling evidence for either case, although I'll admit that there's not much for yours.
I haven't seen anything substantive on Eonas, the only lines there have been refuted, and until I do hear substantive evidence or revocation of suspicion those against him are suspicious in my book.
Ah well, it happens.
Also, if people could bear in mind that any opinions you had on old-Tanar alignment wise are probably still valid, unless you thought that we're a minion... man, this pronoun thing is weird... in which case you were totally wrong.
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2015-05-08, 08:33 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2009
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- PST
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Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
Mostly gut instinct deciding between Eloel and Axl. Every time Axl pipes up, he seems to provide good advice for the knights.
Not sure if Troll's killing my teams because we're on other sides or if I'm just bad at suggesting teams. Just pointing out something odd I've noticed.
I don't really think the points made have been sufficiently refuted. Even discounting the absurd boasting rights by winning after the declaration of hatred;
Voting against Mission 1, I accept as reasonable. Voting against Mission 2 (which had a successful team + 1 that people agreed was a smart addition), I do not accept as reasonable.
Repeatedly false claims in regards to MATH still sits wrong with me. I'll point out I've corrected his math again more recently. (See claim of 20% odds when it was 10%).
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2015-05-08, 09:05 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2008
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- PST (GMT -8)
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2015-05-09, 11:27 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2015
- Location
- Somewhere South of Hell
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
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2015-05-10, 10:30 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
- Location
- Sydney, Australia
- Gender
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
Hi, I'm taking over from Lex-kat and I'm just going to say that I will be sticking with Lex's original decision for now as I'm not on the team.
I will give my opinions tomorrow afternoon after I had a good night's rest and time to read through everything.
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2015-05-10, 10:40 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2013
- Location
- Twin Cities, Minnesota
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
I'm also rejecting. Duck's complete lack of giving information earlier when I wanted didn't sit correctly at all. Leaving the team to be decided by the fifth candidate isn't ideal, but I'm feeling slighter better about at least attempting that than what was given here.
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2015-05-10, 10:46 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
- Location
- Sydney, Australia
- Gender
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
And before I turn into bed, the reason I'm rejecting is simple. I'm backing my ability to pick 3 of the 4 loyal knights to basically win the game over the odds that Duck picked perfectly.
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2015-05-10, 06:45 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
- Location
- Sydney, Australia
- Gender
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
Ok, I'm awake and reading the thread from the start.
I obviously miscounted things last night since looks like if it gets to me, I only need to pick 3 of the 5, not 4.
I will say this now though:
Having thought through this over the night, I have decided that I will not reveal the composition of the team I'd choose and the reasoning of who I will choose until after all votes are in.
Basically minions, I dare you to reject this mission and gamble against me
- - - Updated - - -
Having gone through my first quick read through everything, I will say this:
Troll will not be in my team.
- - - Updated - - -
Which of course means that Eloel will most likely be on my team.
Your move minions.
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2015-05-10, 09:53 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- May 2012
- Location
- Underneath your bed
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2015-05-11, 12:00 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
- Location
- Sydney, Australia
- Gender
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
I have my reasons for posting what I posted. I will disclose everything after the vote.
Until then, I believe it is in our best interests that I do not give the minions a full picture of the team I'll choose id Duck's team is rejected and see if they have the guts to gamble with me.
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2015-05-11, 08:12 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Gender
Re: Avalon: Somerset
Carellus, strides into the room. "It seems as though, after much deliberation, the knights have come to something relatively close to an agreement," he deadpans.
Lady Patronia follows him, fire in her eyes. Men. We ride."
Sir Tristram (Silent_Interim)(Tanar Aerdoth), Sir Troll (Rofltrollcopter), Sir Fidious (Logic), and Sir Immer (Duck999)
Please send me your votes to help the mission SUCCEED or cause it to FAIL.
Sir Troll (Rofltrollcopter), after the SUCCESS/FAIL votes are revealed, you will choose someone to use the Lady of the Lake on. After selecting someone, I will PM you the alignment of the player (good/evil) and the power will be given to them. You may NOT select Eloel.
Lady Lexington (Fleeing Coward)(Lex-Kat), you will pick the next team.
Approved: (6)
Sir Axl (axl)
Sir Myles (jojolagger)
Sir Troll (Rofltrollcopter)
Sir Tristram (Silent_Interim)(Tanar Aerdoth)
Sir Immer (Duck999)
Sir Fidious (Logic)
Rejected: (4)
Lord Edward Ruthven (Eonas)
Lady Lexington (Fleeing Coward)(Lex-Kat)
Sir Galavant (Legato Endless)
Lord of Shallot (Eloel)
Quest 1 Quest 2 Quest 3 Quest 4 Quest 5 3 4 4 5 (two fails) 5 Lord Edward Ruthven
Sir Axl
Sir MylesLord Edward Ruthven
Sir Axl
Sir Myles
Lord of ShallotSir Tristram
Sir Troll
Sir Fidious
Sir Immer---
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---Success
Success
SuccessFail
Fail
Success
Success---
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Lady of the Lake Leader Lord Edward Ruthven Sir Axl Sir Myles Sir Troll Sir Tristram Sir Immer Lady Lexington Sir Galavant Sir Fidious Lord of Shallot Eonas Axl jojolagger Rofltrollcopter Tanar Aerdoth Duck999 Lex-Kat Legato Endless Logic Eloel
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2015-05-11, 09:18 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
- Location
- Sydney, Australia
- Gender
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
I'm just going to wait for final confirmation on failure before I present my case but I'm pretty sure I have at least 3 of the 4 minions nailed down now and I'm down to 2 for the spot of my last minion.
What I will say is that I believe there were 2 minions on the first mission and Eloel was included in mission 2 to discredit his Lady of the Lake scry.
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2015-05-11, 11:22 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2015
- Location
- Somewhere South of Hell
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
That's plausible, but no more likely than the alternatives with the current evidence. I'll be honest, this "gutsy" play style comes across poorly to me, and your behaviour is somewhat off. Bear in mind that we now have several refusals again, so we can ignore the quest if needs must. It looks more like you're trying to come across as loyal than actually being loyal to me, especially in light of the fact that a new player doesn't make the actions of the old player less suspicious. We'll have to wait for the result, but I don't think that this is going to fail. If it does, then I will give some thought to this new theory. If it fails once, I'll be looking at Troll. Twice, Troll and duck. Three times, I'll be surprised... actually, very surprised... but confident.
Also, can I ask why I/Tanar am/were trusted? I appreciate it, but I'm uncertain of the logic behind it.
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2015-05-11, 11:55 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
- Location
- Sydney, Australia
- Gender
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
It is impossible for this mission to not fail. I know I'm loyal so that means that even if all the other 3 that rejected were all minions, at least 1 minion accepted and that means there's a minion on the team.
What I did is pretty simple really: I was basically trying to force the minions to accept this mission since they have to. They know I'm loyal and if they reject this mission, the leader position falls to me in the unrejectable 5th mission. I pick right and it's game over for them since mission 4 requires 2 fails.
That's why I deliberately withheld information on what team I'd choose.
As for why I believe there's 2 minions in the first mission, it's quite simple - if there's only 1 minion in the mission, it's a simple fail decision since it puts the knights immediately on the back foot while only risking the exposure of a single minion.
2 minions on the team on the other hand meant that they had more incentive to play it safe and pick succeed over fail especially since they know that they're most likely are going to pick the team for mission two and they can strike there and still cause a mission fail.
As for saying the player I replaced is suspicious, show me what Lex has done that is clearly a sign of been a minion.
Edit: By that reasoning, I now also am about as certain as I can be that Eloel, Legato and Eonas cannot possibly be a linked minion. There's still a slight possibility that they're Oberon but even that is pretty unlikely in my opinion.
- - - Updated - - -
Also, the people to pick after me, due to my above conclusion, I'm pretty comfortable with my proposal for the mission getting rejected if need be. 3 of them are people that I currently trust and I'd be more than comfortable with Eonas occupying the unrefusable 5th mission spot for the next set.
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2015-05-12, 05:11 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2015
- Location
- Somewhere South of Hell
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
...
No. A minion may change their voting pattern to appear loyal, so this assumption is false.
This requires that we assume your loyalty, which I'm not doing.
In my opening post, I refuted some of this, but not all. First, it is a common strategy to vote success on the first quest anyway to gain trust, even as a solo minion. Just because you would play it that way doesn't mean someone else would. As for the rest, I did refute that earlier: you are assuming that the minions will never take a gamble or play the odds, always voting fail if alone but not if together which they know and can see. That assumption is broken, and continuing to make it after it's been put out in the open without paying any attention to it is mighty suspicious to me.
Trusting Eloel and the sullenness, primarily. Also her somewhat disturbing voting- Anyone recall the "I'm voting Accept and I hope this fails" incident? I'll admit to some gut instinct, and now that she has actually quit I'm less suspicious, but even so LEx must of known someone would come in as a replacement.
Please clarify. Spell it out for me if you have to. Why does it seem unlikely that any of them are Oberon? I'm undecided on Eonas as a minion, but the usual Oberon strategy would be to announce yourself to the minions ASAP, so it seems to me that Oberon wasn't on the first quest. One possibility that occurs is that A minion on quest one voted success to gain trust for the mission +1 and intended to bring in Eloel to discredit the LotL scry, but Eloel voting down as Oberon threw things off.
This doesn't say anything good to me about the people next in line, though I am aware that deliberate attempts to discredit others by those under suspicion are a thing.
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2015-05-12, 07:57 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jun 2007
- Location
- Sydney, Australia
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Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
Normally, yes but here it's for the game so my assumption is absolutely correct. No sane minion is ever going to vote accept for 4 loyals into the 3rd mission when the 4th mission requires 2 fails. They're just giving the game to the knights otherwise.
This requires that we assume your loyalty, which I'm not doing.
In my opening post, I refuted some of this, but not all. First, it is a common strategy to vote success on the first quest anyway to gain trust, even as a solo minion. Just because you would play it that way doesn't mean someone else would. As for the rest, I did refute that earlier: you are assuming that the minions will never take a gamble or play the odds, always voting fail if alone but not if together which they know and can see. That assumption is broken, and continuing to make it after it's been put out in the open without paying any attention to it is mighty suspicious to me.
Basically, the basic assumption I'm making is that it is far more likely that 2 minions on the first mission played it safe than it is that 1 minion played suboptimally passing the mission. I'm not saying I'm infallible but this is what I believe to be true in this game.
Trusting Eloel and the sullenness, primarily. Also her somewhat disturbing voting- Anyone recall the "I'm voting Accept and I hope this fails" incident? I'll admit to some gut instinct, and now that she has actually quit I'm less suspicious, but even so LEx must of known someone would come in as a replacement.
Please clarify. Spell it out for me if you have to. Why does it seem unlikely that any of them are Oberon? I'm undecided on Eonas as a minion, but the usual Oberon strategy would be to announce yourself to the minions ASAP, so it seems to me that Oberon wasn't on the first quest. One possibility that occurs is that A minion on quest one voted success to gain trust for the mission +1 and intended to bring in Eloel to discredit the LotL scry, but Eloel voting down as Oberon threw things off.
This doesn't say anything good to me about the people next in line, though I am aware that deliberate attempts to discredit others by those under suspicion are a thing.
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2015-05-12, 08:47 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Gender
Re: Avalon: Somerset
Lady Patronia reenters the room, accompanied by the four knights. "That. Is how you protect the kingdom. We will need 5 Knights for our next Quest."
Troll, you should use your lady of the lake power now. You may discuss who to use it on in the thread, but I will not consider it confirmed until you PM me.
Lady Lexington (Fleeing Coward)(Lex-Kat), you will pick the next team.
Quest 1 Quest 2 Quest 3 Quest 4 Quest 5 3 4 4 5 (two fails) 5 Lord Edward Ruthven
Sir Axl
Sir MylesLord Edward Ruthven
Sir Axl
Sir Myles
Lord of ShallotSir Tristram
Sir Troll
Sir Fidious
Sir Immer---
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---Success
Success
SuccessFail
Fail
Success
SuccessSuccess
Success
Success
Success---
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Lady of the Lake Leader Lord Edward Ruthven Sir Axl Sir Myles Sir Troll Sir Tristram Sir Immer Lady Lexington Sir Galavant Sir Fidious Lord of Shallot Eonas Axl jojolagger Rofltrollcopter Silent_Interim
Tanar AerdothDuck999 Fleeing Coward
Lex-KatLegato Endless Logic Eloel
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2015-05-12, 09:59 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2012
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
Cool. So, I apologize for my absence, exams happened and to be honest I was starting to lose interest in the game. I really felt like we were spinning in circles and I didn't want to get involved in more walls of text.
I didn't want to quit though, the concept of quitting part way through this game makes me sad if people can get away with erasing their previous history of actions and restarting with a clean slate. It might be worth considering a Code of Conduct to prevent this from happening if we play more games.
That being said, I will not be as active or make as large posts as I've done previously.
I sincerely hope nobody still believes I'm a minion after this mission. To be blunt, if you still believe that you are being extremely foolish.
1. Eloel tried to justify hiding information from the table.
2. I downvoted two missions with bad people on them.
3. From an objective mathematical standpoint, Eloel is more likely to be a minion then me.
4. I was just on a mission that succeeded.
I feel that its reasonable to assume that there was no minion on this mission, unless Percival reveals and claims something fishy is going on. (which he shouldn't until mission 5 at this point, but anyways) From my perspective, I know 100% that one of Jojo, Axl, Eonas is a minion. IF I find the minion, I know who two good people are, and I know a mission that will 100% pass mission 4. Even if I don't find the minion, I know the id of one good person and thus a mission that will 100% pass mission 4.
I will be giving the lady to one of them, that part is not negotiable. I want opinions on who I should give it to.Last edited by Rofltrollcopter; 2015-05-12 at 10:10 PM.
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2015-05-12, 10:17 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2008
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- PST (GMT -8)
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Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
AMAZING! Minions had to take the chance due to pressure on the possibility of double failure, and their 'success'es collided. This gives us so much more to work with.
@Troll
From your perspective, you do not trust me. You probably do not trust Fleeing either, given he trusts me. Since we need some perspective on the next couple of mission proposals, may I suggest using it on Legato or Logic?
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2015-05-12, 10:25 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2012
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2015-05-12, 10:30 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2009
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- PST
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Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
@Troll
Of the people you're considering targeting with LotL, only one (Eonas) is a potential leader for mission 4 (thought it should never come to that given the current situation).
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2015-05-12, 10:46 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Sep 2012
Re: Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)
That's actually a good point. This game has gone on long enough and the consequences of minion vs loyal in light of an all success mission 4 isn't as important anyway. We should all just down vote to Logic and accept his mission regardless of what happens.
I've submitted my choice to Smashbro