Avalon: Somerset (Needs 1 replacement!!!)

[Logic]

um, what?

The guy practically outed himself. He had to be cajoled by two players into telling the Lady of the Lake result. There is absolutely, positively no world where a loyalist hides Lady information from the table.




I would strongly encourage you to rethink this.

Are you basing that answer on more than just Duck's idea to remove you and Eloel from the equation?

EDIT ninja'd. Question answered. I suspect you may be right, but not enough to consider his loyalty settled. Duck is back to neutral, leaning evil.

[Duck999]

I did say that Eloel was more suspicious, but that does not rule other people out.

[Rofltrollcopter]

I would sincerely hope that would be enough. Eloel has been using blatantly obvious minion logic.

I don't have enough to call Duck out, but the guy has been trying to defend the indefensible.

If you want additional reasoning, consider this. Duck voted 'yes' for two missions that he was not a member of twice in a row. He has been trying to blitz through the game.

[Logic]

I would sincerely hope that would be enough. Eloel has been using blatantly obvious minion logic.

I don't have enough to call Duck out, but the guy has been trying to defend the indefensible.

If you want additional reasoning, consider this. Duck voted 'yes' for two missions that he was not a member of twice in a row. He has been trying to blitz through the game.

So did Lex-Kat. I think we can likely conclude Lex-Kat and Duck as minions then.

[Eloel]

So did Lex-Kat. I think we can likely conclude Lex-Kat and Duck as minions then.

With that, it's Eonas, (myself or Troll), Lex and Duck?

Seems pretty straightforward.

[Eonas]

Eh, right now I'll go with it. I'm fairly confident that we have enough information to salvage a loss from mission 3 if worse comes to worst.

Presumably you wouldn't want to 'eh, go with it' if you weren't on the mission? Failure isn't worse comes to worst, it's an possibility that's remarkably likely.

@Eonas, would you mind explaining your reason for the double downvotes?

To summarize what I, apparently incoherently, said in post #55:
I voted Reject on the first quest I wanted more information, essentially. I figured the first quest would go through no matter what, because no minion would ever dream of exposing him/herself on a 3-person team, especially when there exists the possibility of a double-fail. So, I figured, it doesn't matter who's on the team and who isn't: it'll succeed no matter what. However, the minions obviously want themselves on the team because that'll build credibility when it succeeds (even if it's thin credibility, because obviously it's essentially auto-success). So, I figured, when everybody else Rejects the team (because, I erroneously believed, most people would... why NOT have more information? *), the minions would want to Accept it if Axl or Myles was a minion. So, the minions would be conspicuous by their acceptance, and should Axl or Myles eventually prove to be a minion, we could reasonably suspect that those who voted Accept might be minions. But then, that backfired when everybody voted Accept.

I Rejected the Quest-2 team had nothing to do with mind-games or traps or anything. We had practically no information about anybody... and this time, if there was a minion in the team, he/she was sure to fail it this time around.

* Later, Logic actually explained why not... after I'd already voted Reject. I still don't see his reasoning as valid, however: as I said in #79, Even though the minions can gather information about Merlin's identity, there are 4 minions and only one Merlin. It's therefore easier for Merlin to hide among the plebs than it is for the minions to do so.


Eloel: Assuming those probabilities are correct (I wouldn't know - you haven't provided math behind it and I haven't checked it yet), there's still also the possibility that you're both minions - the implication that 'one or the other of us must be loyal', if you are both minions, would certainly be a powerful one.

I would strongly encourage you to rethink this. Especially in light of his earlier post

Sorry, I don't understand how the earlier post you quoted is grounds to reconsider anything. I'm not trying to be snarky - I'm sure it is, but after writing this mini-wall of text, I'm too scatterbrained at the moment to see how.

[Rofltrollcopter]

Sorry, I don't understand how the earlier post you quoted is grounds to reconsider anything. I'm not trying to be snarky - I'm sure it is, but after writing this mini-wall of text, I'm too scatterbrained at the moment to see how.

Duck was suggesting that neither myself or Eloel should go on the mission. My view is that by Eloel attempting to argue that he should not tell the table a piece of information he knows for 100% is fact, he outed himself. Duck asserted that I should be considered untrustworthy a potential liability.

I'm not calling Duck out as evil at this point. There's a chance he is misguided. My point is that right now he isn't an asset to the loyalist team.

Eloel: Assuming those probabilities are correct (I wouldn't know - you haven't provided math behind it and I haven't checked it yet), there's still also the possibility that you're both minions - the implication that 'one or the other of us must be loyal', if you are both minions, would certainly be a powerful one.

If we were both minions, he would have called me good. There was no obvious reason to suspect Eloel besides the fact that he was in a group with two failures. At the time I was targeted by the Lady, I was one of the most trusted people at the table. Calling me good would have enhanced his own standing.

[Eloel]

Eloel: Assuming those probabilities are correct (I wouldn't know - you haven't provided math behind it and I haven't checked it yet), there's still also the possibility that you're both minions - the implication that 'one or the other of us must be loyal', if you are both minions, would certainly be a powerful one.

I thought I did provide the math, you're welcome to ask any of it.

Also, if it was not obvious from my previous post, the claim that Lex, Duck and Eonas are all minions is a pretty strong one without enough basis. I am highly suspicious of Logic as of that comment, as such a line-up is highly unlikely to be able to be proposed by a loyal.

[Logic]

With that, it's Eonas, (myself or Troll), Lex and Duck?

Seems pretty straightforward.

I thought I did provide the math, you're welcome to ask any of it.

Also, if it was not obvious from my previous post, the claim that Lex, Duck and Eonas are all minions is a pretty strong one without enough basis. I am highly suspicious of Logic as of that comment, as such a line-up is highly unlikely to be able to be proposed by a loyal.

These two posts seem contradictory. I read them both as attempts at damage control in an attempt to make you look better to the table. You have only further cemented your Minion status to me.

[Eloel]

These two posts seem contradictory. I read them both as attempts at damage control in an attempt to make you look better to the table. You have only further cemented your Minion status to me.

I forgot my sarcasm tag at mocking your desire to jump to conclusions. Came back to explain myself, have been given the "contradictory" stamp. Cool.

[Logic]

I forgot my sarcasm tag at mocking your desire to jump to conclusions. Came back to explain myself, have been given the "contradictory" stamp. Cool.

To be completely fair, sarcasm does not translate well to text.

And full disclosure: I do not detect sarcasm easily, even in verbal conversations.

Edit: And why are you seemingly defensive? Have I given reason for you to be offended?

[Lex-Kat]

Blah blah, I'm not a minion. Blah blah, not sure anything I say could change your opinion anyway, so why try. Blah blah.

[axl]

Sorry I've been out all weekend so I'm still trying to catch up on things.

First, about Lady of the Lake, maybe this is just me, but if I am a loyal knight who just got a minion result from the scry, I wouldn't just sit quietly with that game-changing intel. I'd be immediately shouting it out to everyone. And I would work to find evidence to back up my claims in order to convince everyone that I am telling the truth. Especially since the one I scried as a minion seems to have majority of the table's trust. Not doing this will cost me the game. The fact that Eloel did neither makes me strongly doubt his loyalty.

Of course, there's still a chance that Eloel might have been a good guy who just had a lapse of poor judgment. But if that is the case, he didn't really help our cause by choosing to keep silent.

Next, regarding jojolagger's team in mind (jojo, tanar, troll, logic). If I go by on pure math, from my perspective this has less than 10 percent chance of succeeding (actually 8.89% but I don't want to bore you right now with computations since this is just from my own perspective and may be unique from everyone else), but the presence of additional info after the failed mission muddles up the math a bit. Anyway, what I want to say is that right now, I don't know yet if I will vote to accept or reject. I will read back through the thread before I make a decision.

Sir Axl. Based on Eonas's strange voting and Eloel's likely lie, I suspect you are the other loyal in Bag One.

My current theory is that (*EDITED: 2 non-axl knights from quest 2) are minions.

Thank you for the votes of confidence (sort of). I hope I can convince others of my loyalty as well. Look, I know that being the leader of a double-fail mission makes everyone highly suspect my allegiance (And I wouldn't blame you since I would also strongly doubt the leader of a double-fail mission especially on missions that require 2 fails to fail). So right now, I'm still trying to redeem everyone's trust.

Imagine it like this:
My brain is a computer. Legato has the password. Maybe if I added some randomness of symbols and stuff he wouldn't read my mind so often.

But if you're loyal, wouldn't it be to your advantage to not add "some randomness of symbols and stuff" for this game, since you'd be able to get at least one person to vouch for your loyalty?


Speaking of Legato, I'm curious why he has remained silent for most of this game.

[jojolagger]

Whole bunch of talking while I was gone.
I feel I've been stalling the suggested team too long. I'll have suggested something by the time I go to bed.

@Axl Your perspective should be unique, as you are from Bag One instead of Bag Two, which fiddles math for trusting me. I'll just ask, does the math change if I were replaced with a different not you minion from quest two?

[axl]

@Axl Your perspective should be unique, as you are from Bag One instead of Bag Two, which fiddles math for trusting me. I'll just ask, does the math change if I were replaced with a different not you minion from quest two?

Not really, the math does not change if you were replaced with Eonas/Eloel. But again this is from looking at a pure mathematical standpoint since all 3 of you have equal 66.7% chance of being a minion from my mathematical perspective.

However, taking into consideration all the things that happened and stepping out from a pure mathematical thinking, of course there will be changes.

One example: with the Lady of the Lake incident, I'd say that I can give Eloel more than "just" 66.7% chance of being a minion. Probably around 90% but there's really no math formula that can support that thinking.

[jojolagger]

Probably around 90% but there's really no math formula that can support that thinking.

Something about factoring in the 66.667% chance that Troll... Give AI developers a few decades and they might sort it out.

Guess Lego isn't going to join in soon.
Suggested Team. Sir Myles (Jojolagger), Sir Troll (Rofltrollcopter), Sir Tristram (Tanar Aerdoth), Sir Fidious (Logic).
I think I trusting the right people. Hopefully Axl and whoever in Bag 2 is Loyal will agree.

[Legato Endless]

Sorry, for some reason my subscriptions didn't update, and after this went a few days waiting for the quest completion, it slipped into the ether.

I'll give some thoughts tomorrow once I'm free.

[jojolagger]

... They're right behind me, aren't they? Why did I expect any different? Of course Legato shows up the moment I call him Lego and say he won't show up. It's so obvious in retrospect.

[axl]

Blah blah, I'm not a minion. Blah blah, not sure anything I say could change your opinion anyway, so why try. Blah blah.

So why try? Hmmm well how about this:
1. You're not only convincing one person, you're convincing the rest of the table too.
2. If you are loyal, essentially saying that "I'm loyal and I don't care if all of you people believe me or not" would practically give the game away to the minions.

Should be reasons enough to try, no?

[Rofltrollcopter]

I wanted to wait for the team to be locked in before I said this.

I strongly encourage all loyalists to reject this mission. In my opinion, out of the group of Eonas, Jojo, and Axl, Jojo is the most suspicious person in the group. Eonas's reasons for rejecting both missions make sense. The fact that he rejected mission 2 makes him more likely to be a loyalist. For the group of khown minions, (Mordred, Assassin, Morgana) they thought this mission was the perfect setup: 1 traitor and 3 loyalists. I would be very surprised that a minion inside the mission would reject, especially since accepting the mission would make not look suspicious at all.

I suspect that the non-Oberon minion was in Mission 1. It would explain why only two people outside the mission rejected it. The minions thought they had the perfect setup.

Jojo's insistence that we bury Eonas makes him more suspicious in my mind, since in my view the most suspicious person in the group is attacking the least suspicious.

Rejecting your own mission (especially when its just the first proposed mission) is a perfectly valid loyalist tactic. It's true that more mission proposals give more information to minions to figure out Merlin. That's a necessary evil. The good guys have an information deficit overall. There are four loyalists who don't have information, and Percival needs time to figure out who Merlin is.

[jojolagger]

It appears Troll never likes my teams. I'll concede it was reasonable last game.

This time the argument you make is much weaker. This time, I think someone who lied about math is a minion, and suddenly that's a mark against me.

False math is an attempt to hide information from the table, just like Eloel did. I'm disappointed Troll.

[Tris]

Hmm, I think I might reject this one.

[Logic]

I wanted to wait for the team to be locked in before I said this.

I strongly encourage all loyalists to reject this mission. In my opinion, out of the group of Eonas, Jojo, and Axl, Jojo is the most suspicious person in the group. Eonas's reasons for rejecting both missions make sense. The fact that he rejected mission 2 makes him more likely to be a loyalist. For the group of khown minions, (Mordred, Assassin, Morgana) they thought this mission was the perfect setup: 1 traitor and 3 loyalists. I would be very surprised that a minion inside the mission would reject, especially since accepting the mission would make not look suspicious at all.

I suspect that the non-Oberon minion was in Mission 1. It would explain why only two people outside the mission rejected it. The minions thought they had the perfect setup.

Jojo's insistence that we bury Eonas makes him more suspicious in my mind, since in my view the most suspicious person in the group is attacking the least suspicious.

Rejecting your own mission (especially when its just the first proposed mission) is a perfectly valid loyalist tactic. It's true that more mission proposals give more information to minions to figure out Merlin. That's a necessary evil. The good guys have an information deficit overall. There are four loyalists who don't have information, and Percival needs time to figure out who Merlin is.

That brings up another subject. Prior to this mission, do you have any thoughts on whom you shall target with the Lady of the Lake? I know the accept/reject results and actual quest results may make you change your mind, but I'd like to hear your current thoughts on this.

[Eloel]

I still think after this mission and definitive proof that Troll is a minion, we'll have enough information to salvage rest of the missions.

I think this group will fail, but will give enough information to solve rest of the missions for a 3-2 victory for us.

That's an Accept on this group.

[Logic]

I still think after this mission and definitive proof that Troll is a minion, we'll have enough information to salvage rest of the missions.

I think this group will fail, but will give enough information to solve rest of the missions for a 3-2 victory for us.

That's an Accept on this group.

Wait, why would you accept a quest proposal you "know" for a fact contains a minion? It would not prove Troll's guilt, but it would cast him in a more suspicious light.

[Eloel]

Wait, why would you accept a quest proposal you "know" for a fact contains a minion? It would not prove Troll's guilt, but it would cast him in a more suspicious light.

I am suspicious of most of the team (and know for a fact that Troll is a minion), and given that a complete change of team to a safe one is not going to happen (I don't have 4 people I totally trust), would rather have as many minions in the group as possible to easen up the future missions.

[Logic]

I am suspicious of most of the team (and know for a fact that Troll is a minion), and given that a complete change of team to a safe one is not going to happen (I don't have 4 people I totally trust), would rather have as many minions in the group as possible to easen up the future missions.

Unless you have a really good reason to think there are 2 or more minions on this team (and if the leader is a minion, he would almost certainly not put more than one minion on a team together) there should be no reason to accept a team with a known minion.

As for testing that hypothesis, I would want Duck, Lex-Kat and Legato on a team together, with Troll as the likely 4th.

I am fairly certain that if Duck is evil, then so is Lex-Kat. If Troll is evil, then Eloel is good, and Troll's later defense of Eonas does not make much sense.

If Troll is loyal, and jojolagger is evil, as Troll suggested most recently, then Troll likely suspects myself, Axl, Eonas and Tanar to be loyal.

[smashbro]

As a reminder, votes are only counted when they are PM'd to me. Eloel, troll: while it's totally fine to tell what you're going to vote publicly, please just confirm your votes by sending them to me privately.

[Lex-Kat]

Unless you have a really good reason to think there are 2 or more minions on this team (and if the leader is a minion, he would almost certainly not put more than one minion on a team together) there should be no reason to accept a team with a known minion.

As for testing that hypothesis, I would want Duck, Lex-Kat and Legato on a team together, with Troll as the likely 4th.

I am fairly certain that if Duck is evil, then so is Lex-Kat. If Troll is evil, then Eloel is good, and Troll's later defense of Eonas does not make much sense.

If Troll is loyal, and jojolagger is evil, as Troll suggested most recently, then Troll likely suspects myself, Axl, Eonas and Tanar to be loyal.

How did I get tied to Duck? And if you place us on the same team, and Duck is evil and votes to fail the mission, then no matter how I vote (which will be for the mission to succeed, btw), then I'm still evil by association. Personally, I don't trust Logic. He's pushed very hard for you all to believe I'm a minion ever since I asked to be on the second mission. And the reason I asked? The last time I played one of these games, I was suspected of being a minion for not raising my imaginary hand to be on the teams. Again, damned if I do, damned if I don't. BTW, last time I was Percival.

[Legato Endless]

Speaking of Legato, I'm curious why he has remained silent for most of this game.

I'm here now. After that lapse of activity from the delayed vote, this game fell off the grid for me. I've also been busy the last few days, as evinced by the other games I'm in. And it's pretty unlikely I'm evil in all of them. It's also not really my style.

That said, I have started things off very closed mouth, somewhat in reaction to last time. We won, but I made a mistake in so outwardly solving the game. There's no drawback to doing that in mafia unless you're a power role.

Unless you have a really good reason to think there are 2 or more minions on this team (and if the leader is a minion, he would almost certainly not put more than one minion on a team together) there should be no reason to accept a team with a known minion.

As for testing that hypothesis, I would want Duck, Lex-Kat and Legato on a team together, with Troll as the likely 4th.

I am fairly certain that if Duck is evil, then so is Lex-Kat. If Troll is evil, then Eloel is good, and Troll's later defense of Eonas does not make much sense.

If Troll is loyal, and jojolagger is evil, as Troll suggested most recently, then Troll likely suspects myself, Axl, Eonas and Tanar to be loyal.

Willfully tanking a mission seems wrong since that moves us toward do or die. I need to think about this.

Imagine it like this:
My brain is a computer. Legato has the password. Maybe if I added some randomness of symbols and stuff he wouldn't read my mind so often.

Although that would come at the cost of making you potentially less readable to others, which is a bit of a drawback in the games we play.

With that, it's Eonas, (myself or Troll), Lex and Duck?

Seems pretty straightforward.

Blah blah, I'm not a minion. Blah blah, not sure anything I say could change your opinion anyway, so why try. Blah blah.

Oh come on. Fight! Regardless of your loyalty, don't just give in.

I can't pin down Duck vs Legato. But, I will say this: if Duck is Evil, Legato has probably figured him out already (like he does most games of werewolf, and the last Avalon game.)

Try you, Troll, Tristram, and me. That's what I feel most comfortable with.

And what was it you needed to see?

Heh, no pressure.

I trust you Logic, if that's any consolation.