Disguise versus the Commoners

[EldritchWeaver]

A player of mine wants to run around with being himself always in disguise and asked how likely it is that people recognizes him resp. see that it is a disguise. So to make it simpler I assume the player takes 10, which works out nicely because people take 10 as well. But still, that leaves the other modifiers.

How likely do have NPCs positive Wisdom mods? How likely do they have Perception as class skill? How likely do they have feats like Skill Focus and Alertness? How likely do they have ranks in Perception? Considering that the player has an overall bonus of +11 for Disguise, can I safely assume that only leveled people might have a chance to see through the disguise? Would that translate to that at best elite guards and other plot relevant NPCs are the sole ones who I'd have to worry about?

[BWR]

If you assume that everyone always takes 10, you can safely assume only rather exceptional NPCs will have a chance of noticing the PC. Perception is not the rare skill it was in 3.5, since now everyone can get at least a 1-1 benefit for ranks there, so it's more likely that some people will notice eventually. Anyway, ask yourself if this is really an issue you need to put too much thought into. Does it really matter one way or the other? The way I treat Disguise is that it only matters if the PC is trying to be something he obviously isn't (other sexes or races, generally) or if someone who might recognize him is around, and if there is a plot relevant issue at hand; in these cases one rolls.

[Jack_Simth]

I pretty much agree with BWR, here. It's even as-written that most people don't even get a Perception roll:

Your Disguise check result determines how good the disguise is, and it is opposed by others’ Perception check results. If you don’t draw any attention to yourself, others do not get to make Perception checks. If you come to the attention of people who are suspicious (such as a guard who is watching commoners walking through a city gate), it can be assumed that such observers are taking 10 on their Perception checks.

(emphasis added)

So the random merchant on the street that you walk past? No check unless you're drawing attention deliberately. The guard at the city gate? He gets a check (well, if he's at least trying to do his job). The merchant you're haggling with to save a few coppers on the new horse? He might (you're drawing attention - from him, at least).

But yes: In a reasonably civilized area, the ability to notice fine details (perception) is usually less useful than the ability to make money (Craft/Profession). There's going to be exceptions - the town guard, for instance - but your run-of-the-mill commoner, the people you wouldn't normally bother to stat up? Nope.

[EldritchWeaver]

Thanks for confirming my assumptions, that makes it easy to handle this.

[Fouredged Sword]

Yeah, your average gate guard has what, 3-4 levels?

That is at most a 19-20 when taking a ten and trying to spot. 4 rank +3 class skill +3 wis.

If your guy can hit a 20 when taking ten I would just assume he goes undetected by anyone under level 4.

[Sacrieur]

I mean they probably won't notice, but there's nothing stopping you from adding on circumstance modifiers when appropriate or having someone really take a good look at someone (taking 20). Just a quick glance over someone making a ruckus is considered taking 10.

[icefractal]

Let's see - if we're using Pathfinder, I'd say:
Commoners: -1 (Wisdom 8) to +7 (Wisdom 14, 1 rank, trait)
Average Guard: +5 (Wisdom 10, 2 ranks)
Skilled Guard: +9 (Wisdom 12, 3 ranks, +2/+2 feat)
Local Prodigy: +12 (Wisdom 14, 3 ranks, skill focus, trait)
Famed in Kingdom: +17 (Wisdom 16, 5 ranks, skill focus, +2/+2 feat, trait)
World Class: +29 (Wisdom 20, 10 ranks, skill focus, +2/+2 feat, trait)

That's without items. If they (or whoever they work for) are able to afford it, you can add another +5 to that from boosting Perception directly, and another +3 from boosting Wisdom.

That's also assuming fairly "normal" people. If you were really trying to max it out at 1st level, you could get at least +16, but that's with PC stats and being extremely focused on it.

[Jack_Simth]

That's also assuming fairly "normal" people. If you were really trying to max it out at 1st level, you could get at least +16, but that's with PC stats and being extremely focused on it.

That'd be... what, Human, 18 base Wis, +2 Racial Wis, 1 rank, class skill, Skill Focus, Alertness, a +2 Trait = +4+1+1+3+3+2+2=+16?

Hmm... I'm not finding any always-usable +2 Perception traits, though... lots that make it a class skill and give +1...

If we have a Wizard with a Hawk familiar (and we're in bright light), that'd be +18.