A Typical Werewolf Game

[AvatarVecna]

Could it be reverse psychology? 'The wolf wants us to vote for Sapo, so we shouldn't vote for them!'

You'll notice that Indarra isn't voting for Sapo themselves, though. It's an interesting play: whether it's a lie or not, they're still trying to present themselves as if they survived the D1 lynch. In the same post that they didn't vote for Sapo, they insisted Sapo is already dead. The message of "Sapo is already dead, so voting for them is wasting a lynch" would be a legitimate point if we had reason to believe Sapo was already dead. I'm going to go check my numbers again to see if things start making more sense assuming Sapo is dead, but I expect there to be a significant issue with assuming that.

EDIT: More than anything, I'm annoyed by the relative lack of activity from some people in a game where the dead can talk.

[Ramsus]

More than anything, I'm annoyed by the relative lack of activity from some people in a game where the dead can talk.

Me too.

[Silent_Interim]

Hey, I have an excuse for being inactive even though I can still participate. I'm always inactive.

I see no reason not to lynch Saposhiente.

[Chambers]

All aboard the Saposhiente wagon!

....I may have died last night.

[Duck999]

EDIT: More than anything, I'm annoyed by the relative lack of activity from some people in a game where the dead can talk.

My apologies. I've been inactive for reasons other than being dead. I have some more time later this week, so I'll try to do better.

[smuchmuch]

Okay guys.
I'm pretty sure the Fool has an alignment scry with a fairly simple code.
Wolves are berries and town are citrus.
I have scried four people as the Fool: flat_footed, Raspberry (Devil, Robot Devil). Duneyrr, Lime (I have a claim from him that checks out). Chambers, orange (no special reason to think they were town. What are some reads for Chambers? ).
Saposhiente, Cantaloupeberry.

I'm aware it's not a real berry but it says berry at the end. Very intentionally, as well.

Uhm, stupid question maybe but cantaloupe is a kind of citrus, so maybe being bàotha citrus and aberry means 'neutral' ?
I mean i have no problem lynching Saposhiente to check, but he still gave indara as the beast on a platter on day 1,n which seems bad play for the wolves.

[AvatarVecna]

Uhm, stupid question maybe but cantaloupe is a kind of citrus, so maybe being bàotha citrus and aberry means 'neutral' ?
I mean i have no problem lynching Saposhiente to check, but he still gave indara as the beast on a platter on day 1,n which seems bad play for the wolves.

This is probably one of the better arguments I've seen against voting for Sapo so far, which given the content is rather disappointing for discussion of a lynch this deep into the game. Given that it's possible that Sapo is already dead, though, and given that I don't want the lynch to be wasted due to a complete lack of any counterwagon, I think I'm going to move my vote to Indarra for the time being.

[Xihirli]

A cantaloupe isn't citrus.

[smuchmuch]

it's not ?
Oh wait, crap, I was confusing cantaloupe and grapefruits.

the paert about giving the Beast on day 1 still stands tho, I feel.

[Duck999]

We might as well check the code, Saposhiente.

[Logic]

Okay guys.
I'm pretty sure the Fool has an alignment scry with a fairly simple code.
Wolves are berries and town are citrus.
I have scried four people as the Fool: flat_footed, Raspberry (Devil, Robot Devil). Duneyrr, Lime (I have a claim from him that checks out). Chambers, orange (no special reason to think they were town. What are some reads for Chambers? ).
Saposhiente, Cantaloupeberry.

I'm aware it's not a real berry but it says berry at the end. Very intentionally, as well.

Uhm, stupid question maybe but cantaloupe is a kind of citrus, so maybe being bàotha citrus and aberry means 'neutral' ?
I mean i have no problem lynching Saposhiente to check, but he still gave indara as the beast on a platter on day 1,n which seems bad play for the wolves.

A cantaloupe isn't citrus.

Spoiler: Arguing semantics: berry/citrus/melon

Show

Cantaloupe is a melon. But a Strawberry is not a berry, and is sometimes argued as a citrus as it has a high amount of citric acid. It also contains more vitamin C than most citrus fruits, something we commonly associated with the fruits that are clearly identified as citrus fruits (lime, orange, lemon, grapefruit, etc.)

But also keep in mind that a banana is a berry. (At least from the scientific taxonomical definition, despite not the foodie definition.)

I'm wary of the "berry scries as a wolf," because the whole day one back and forth between Indarra and Saposhiente looks natural: like a townie vs a wolf that has been caught. I wouldn't put it past Sapo for planning it like that, but day1 bussing a fellow wolf doesn't seem like Sapo's style. I suppose since I have no better leads, we should test this berry/melon/citrus theory. Saposhiente it is, I guess. I'd rather see a competing wagon.*

*Give me a few hours, and I'll see about making a case for someone else. I've been gone all weekend.

[Grand Arbiter]

Saposhiente seems like a good choice for the lynch for now, I'll check in again this evening after I've done some packing.

[Logic]

You scried Saposhiente as a berry because she's the beast. She died day one, just the way I told you all.

Interesting, because a few day phases earlier ago:

flat_footed

flat_footed

You followed flat_footed's (a scried wolf) lead with no explanation.

Sorry, but there is no reasonable explanation for that. You're a dead wolf, end of story.

This is just in case anyone is on Sapo's wagon because of what Indarra said. You might have your reasons, but don't let Indarra's word be one of them. Sapo is also curiously absent.

[Zar Peter]

Pointing at Saposhiente seems to be the thing now. Let's do it!

[Ramsus]

Bobb has autolynch replaced Gray Mage.

[Bobb]

Hey.

I only know Saposhiente was awesome day one and we don't actually necessarily know who's dead or alive. I'm going to be honest, not reading the entire thread here. Why have they fallen out of favor?




Should I role reveal?

Currently finding out if I am dead or not.

Also, looking at the role death lists, they all sound the same. Like, is there less ambiguity than we think or have both parts of the death list been claimed?

For example, mayor and deputy mayor. Maybe there's just a mayor in game and the deputy mayor is misdirection and it's actually obvious who's dead? no?

- - - Updated - - -

Also I'm dead.

[AvatarVecna]

I only know Saposhiente was awesome day one and we don't actually necessarily know who's dead or alive. I'm going to be honest, not reading the entire thread here. Why have they fallen out of favor?

Xihirli (who claims to be the dead Seer/Fool) has noticed a pattern in their Fool scry results that they think indicates Saposhiente is a wolf. We're testing that right now, because it's basically the best idea we've got at the moment.

Should I role reveal?

You're replacing Gray Mage, who was one of our bandwagon lynches. In all likelyhood, you're the dead wolf Vortexer/Vortexor, and the Seer/Fool (who was not dead at the time and had not claimed to be Xihirli) claimed they got scry interference on Gray Mage, since they were convinced there wasn't a counterpart Fool to their Seer, that it was a wolf Devil running deliberate scry interference. Gray Mage claimed to be the other Politician/Bureaucrat (that's me) and claimed his role had built in scry interference; since this wasn't anything even remotely like what the narrator told me about my powers, I publicly called bull**** on it. Admittedly, this seer claim is dependent on Lex-Kat being trustworthy (since they brought us the Seer's message), who has not only refused to answer my asking after either the other Lover or her seer contact, but is also only trustworthy as the Lover if Sapo was telling the truth about the D2 lynch, which at this point is questionable given the Seer's current theory. So...

Currently finding out if I am dead or not.

Probably. My current theory is that Gray Mage is one of a number of people who, upon dying, stopped caring about this game even though they could still take actions and whatnot. Fortunately, in this game, unlike what all those people seem to think, being dead doesn't mean you can't still play the game!

Also, looking at the role death lists, they all sound the same. Like, is there less ambiguity than we think or have both parts of the death list been claimed?

For example, mayor and deputy mayor. Maybe there's just a mayor in game and the deputy mayor is misdirection and it's actually obvious who's dead? no?

The current theory, which matches up with what multiple people have seen so far, is that each person has two roles, one they have while alive, and one they have while dead, but they aren't told which one they start with. For instance, I'm the Bureaucrat/Politician, as previously mentioned; as the living Bureaucrat, I got a count of the number of living votes on the wagon with the most living votes, but my second lynch count didn't make sense with my first one...because I got killed in the night, so every number after the first one is a count of the number of dead votes on the wagon with the most dead votes.

[Saposhiente]

What, we can't find evidence from suspicious behavior so we're reduced to mass guessing on a Fool's scries? At least one of which was done on a dead player (and who knows whether that affects the result)?

Let's talk about behavior. In what universe is it a good idea for a wolf to make a hugely suspicious gambit, not tell the other wolves how to respond correctly, and then hardcore bus a wolf from zero votes all the way to dead?

I don't have a lot of time to spend so I'd prefer to spend it analyzing players who are alive. AvatarVecna, could you post a summary of who is most likely to be dead by your data so I can compare it with my notes?

Until then, Logic just because they didn't claim anything D1 and aren't claiming to be dead, and it looks like 75% of such people so far turned out to be wolves (unless our guesses of their alignments are wrong).

[AvatarVecna]

I don't have a lot of time to spend so I'd prefer to spend it analyzing players who are alive. AvatarVecna, could you post a summary of who is most likely to be dead by your data so I can compare it with my notes?

Sure. Here's my raw data (who voted for who, the results of the day/night kills, and the number I was told), and here's a lot of analysis by me, based on some clearly stated assumptions (although I just noticed a flaw in the latter, which will be fixed below). Here's the summary you asked for:

Spoiler: Fairly certain of this stuff, assuming those assumptions

Show

Time Of Death	Role	Player Identity
D1	Beast/Demon	Indarra
D1	Watcher/Lookout	Zar Peter
N1	Bureaucrat/Politician	AvatarVecna
D2	Day Baner/Executioner	Durzan
D3	A Lover	Lex-Kat
N3	Baner/Jailor	(cardrian/Chambers/Duneyrr)
D4	Vortexer/Vortexor	Gray Mage (who is now Bobb)
N4	Seer/Fool	(cardrian/Chambers/Duneyrr)
D5	Devil/Robot Devil	flat_footed
N5	Vigilante/Voider	(smuchmuch/Libro/Xihirli/Duck999)
D6	Mayor/Deputy Mayor	Silent_Interim
N6	Enhancer/Booster
D7	Vampire/Vampire Spawn	Shadow11615
N7	Cheerleader/Vampire Slayer

My current guesses for the other slots right now are Xihirli for the Vigilante/Voider,Murska for the Enhancer/Booster, Chambers for the Cheerleader/Vampire Slayer, and cardrian/Duneyrr for the Baner/Jailor and Seer/Fool in some fashion. If my list is correct, and those guesses are correct (the odds of both those things being true is probably fairly low, but eh), then the following people are still alive:

Duck999
Libro
Logic
Saposhiente
smuchmuch
ThePhantom

Until then, Logic just because they didn't claim anything D1 and aren't claiming to be dead, and between 50 and 75% of such people so far turned out to be wolves. (depending on whether Vortexer is a Town role or Wolf role in this game)

This works for me, and kinda makes sense. Logic.

I'll also add that I PM'd a few people before revealing my numbers publicly, asking them if they thought I should, or if not, what they thought I should do instead. Here's a couple of the responses I got that stuck in my mind, each for their own reasons:

Okay, so quick summary: my power (while alive) gave me a count of the number of living players on the wagon with the most living players; now that I'm dead, it gives me a cpunt of the number of dead players on the wagon with the most dead players. Oroginally I was keeping my role, the specifics of my power, and my vote cpint secret to avoid givong the wolves more info (particularly since I was privately fake claiming Fool to them at the time), but now I know that they know my role, and have some idea of my power, and probably have a better count to the dead than I do as a whole, so I'm not coming up with a good reason to keep the information secret any longer. I wanted to get a second opinion though in case I wasn't thinking of something obvious. Thoughts?

Everyone that died during the day is likely obvious to town, but the only person that confirm each death would be that person themselves.

The wolves are going to know exactly who is dead from nightkills, but so is that person that died, making the rest of town in the dark unless someone specifically speaks up.

I think you are probably better off finding a couple of people to confide to than make everything public knowledge, for now at least. Possibly pick from among the most likely dead (I'm alive, BTW) for your co-conspiritors.

Lex-Kat could be a good choice, as she publicly claimed dead, and the vote counts support that theory. Additionally, it doesn't look like her role could be a wolf one. I forget about some of the others, it have to get back to you when I am not on a mobile device.

Okay, so quick summary: my power (while alive) gave me a count of the number of living players on the wagon with the most living players; now that I'm dead, it gives me a cpunt of the number of dead players on the wagon with the most dead players. Oroginally I was keeping my role, the specifics of my power, and my vote cpint secret to avoid givong the wolves more info (particularly since I was privately fake claiming Fool to them at the time), but now I know that they know my role, and have some idea of my power, and probably have a better count to the dead than I do as a whole, so I'm not coming up with a good reason to keep the information secret any longer. I wanted to get a second opinion though in case I wasn't thinking of something obvious. Thoughts?

One thought to start: Why me?
Second thought: I think it's worth sharing, since wolves know who died each night, whereas we do not.

[Logic]

Curious. I'm the only one reluctant to lynch Sapo, and then when Sapo comes back, she points at me.

[Ramsus]

Just to let people have some time to realize the forum is back and such, this day will end at some point during the 16th.

[Bobb]

Were we down long enough for everyone to forget the theory that makes the most sense says I'm a bad guy?

Because I am a good guy.

[smuchmuch]

Kinda forgot ost oàf what was going on. Ugh.
Anyway rereading this day, I realise I really don't like this Sapioente bandwagon. I don't think it's wolfy, just based on really really shaky ground. 4 subject, dodn't seem all that good a base to make guesses about he citrus/berry code.

My current guesses for the other slots right now are Xihirli for the Vigilante/Voider,Murska for the Enhancer/Booster, Chambers for the Cheerleader/Vampire Slayer, and cardrian/Duneyrr for the Baner/Jailor and Seer/Fool in some fashion. If my list is correct, and those guesses are correct (the odds of both those things being true is probably fairly low, but eh), then the following people are still alive

So I notice your guess go directly againt Xihirli telling everyone they are the Seer/Fool ? (or were they pretending to be a proxy) Not sure what to think of it.

Ps: I confirm being still alive (for now)

Logic

[AvatarVecna]

So I notice your guess go directly againt Xihirli telling everyone they are the Seer/Fool ? (or were they pretending to be a proxy) Not sure what to think of it.

I have no idea what Xihirli is, that's just my guess. However, based on the information available, if we assume that Saposhiente was telling the truth D3 about the D2 lynch (namely, that Durzan was the one who actually got lynched, and that Lex-Kat was still alive), then Xihirli cannot be the dead Seer/Fool.

Spoiler: Following The Clues

Show

Going into the D2 lynch, there are three dead people: the Beast/Demon (Indarra), the Bureaucrat/Politician (me, AvatarVecna), and the Watcher/Lookout (unknown). At the end of D2, there are two dead people on the wagon with the most; since Indarra and I didn't vote together, that means the Watcher/Lookout was voting with one of us (limiting that role to one of Shadow11615/flat_footed/Generic-Guy/smuchmuch/Zar Peter/Saposhiente/Durzan).

Going into the D3 lynch, there are four dead people (the three from before, and the newly-lynched Day Baner/Executioner, who Saposhiente claims is Durzan, which we are currently assuming to be true). So now we can strike Durzan from the above list. Getting on to the actual lynch, none of the three known dead people (Indarra, AvatarVecna, or Durzan) voted, and there is one dead vote on the wagon with the most dead votes, so that dead vote must be the Watcher/Lookout. That limits our list of possible Watcher/Lookouts to (flat_footed/smuchmuch/Zar Peter/Saposhiente). Lex-Kat dies in the lynch and is obviously A Lover. The Baner/Jailor dies in the night, bringing the body count to 6, with 4 known and 2 unknown.

Going into the D4 lynch, there's three known dead people on the Gray Mage wagon, and three dead people on the wagon with the most. So nobody other than Indarra/AvatarVecna/Durzan on the Gray Mage wagon D4 can be dead at that point, striking smuchmuch off of our list (limiting it to flat_footed/Zar Peter/Saposhiente). Gray Mage is lynched as the Vortexer/Vortexor, and the Seer/Fool dies in the night, putting our body count at 8, 5 known and 3 unknown.

On to the D5 lynch, flat_footed gets lynched in a landslide, and is revealed as the Devil/Robot Devil, so they can't be the dead Watcher/Lookout (limiting it down to Zar Peter or Saposhiente). But look at the D5 lynch again, the people on flat_footed's wagon: Indarra, Durzan, and AvatarVecna (3 confirmed dead, if Sapo wasn't lying) and both Zar Peter and Saposhiente (one of whom is the dead Watcher/Lookout). That makes four dead people...and the number of dead people I was told was on that wagon was 4. So everybody else on that wagon was alive at the time, and could thus not be the unknown dead roles (Baner/Jailor and Seer/Fool): that means that Logic, Murska, Libro, Duck999, Silent_Interim, smuchmuch, ThePhantom, Shadow11615, and Xihirli cannot be those dead roles.

If the lynches have generally gone as expected, with the exception of the D2 lynch killing Durzan as Sapo claimed, then Xihirli (and everybody else on that list) CANNOT be the dead Seer/Fool (or the dead Baner/Jailor, for that matter).

Spoiler: Wild Conjecture

Show

I preface this entire section with a GIANT ASTERISK marking it as a half-baked conspiracy theory. Got it? Okay, moving on.

Interesting to note that although Xihirli claims they scried flat_footed as the Devil before dying, and was apparently right, Xihirli later admits that her claiming flat_footed was the Devil was a straight-up wild guess. Even if Xihirli was the Seer/Fool, or the mouthpiece of the Seer/Fool, that's some pretty impressive guesswork.

So I got to thinking "Xihirli isn't the Seer, so why are they claiming it? The wolves knew who the seer was, maybe they knew the dead seer wouldn't counterclaim and so they had a wolf claim to be the dead seer. With two wolves dead at that point (Indarra/Gray Mage), and probably only 4 wolves in the game, Xihirli sacrificing flat_footed to make sure they're unquestioned the rest of the game would be a neat ploy...but then Lex-Kat has to be in on it, since they claimed to be in contact with the Seer, and the seer found Gray Mage for them.

...maybe Lex-Kat is A Lover, but they're other Lover is one of the wolves! That'd be pretty Atypical (appropriate for this game). Like, maybe it's a neutral role that can win with the wolves if they're lover yet lives? So like, maybe the real seer contacted Lex-Kat before they had to leave, and Lex-Kat lynched Gray Mage on that Seer's word. They got in contact with Xihirli (their lover?) and saw the Seer was super-inactive, so when they killed the seer in the night, Xihirli would claim dead Seer who managed to accurately scry the Devil and would be a lock for town for the rest of the game. But who's the inactive real Seer? My guess was Generic-Guy, which is why I asked Duneyrr if they were the Seer...which they denied.

I don't know for certain about any of that BS, but I do know is that when I asked Lex-Kat a few days back about their Lover and the Seer who contacted them, they never got back to me.

Spoiler: Slightly Less Wild Conjecture

Show

Xihirli isn't the Seer/Fool, but is pulling...something, I dunno. Anyway, she claims to be the dead Seer/Fool and to have scried flat_footed as the Devil. flat_footed (who is, in fact, the devil) panics and doesn't respond, letting Xihirli get them lynched. Now, the wolves know they didn't target Xihirli N4, and they know Seer/Fool died N4, so maybe they suspect a switching power is in play or something. Regardless, they figure they should probably target Xihirli just in case this is a normal game with one Seer and one Fool, and so Xihirli dies N5, potentially wasting a wolf kill while giving information to anybody who was networked with the real Seer/Fool, with Xihirli, or with both.

This theory, which isn't really supported by anything other than the belief that Xihirli being a wolf is too convoluted, is why I've guessed that Xihirli is the dead Vigilante/Voider who died N5. It's only a theory, but it is (I think) the more possible one of the two.

[Xihirli]

So. Vecna. I think you got a really raw deal with your night power, and I also think you should stop confusing everyone with that stuff, because it doesn't get much simpler than I was the Seer and am now the Fool and my scries have led to us killing two wolves now.

[AvatarVecna]

So. Vecna. I think you got a really raw deal with your night power, and I also think you should stop confusing everyone with that stuff, because it doesn't get much simpler than I was the Seer and am now the Fool and my scries have led to us killing two wolves now.

Ah, finally somebody actually addressing a point I'm making, even though I've been making these points for days! No matter no matter...so, Xihirli, since you're the Seer/Fool, tell me where you think the fault in my logic is. Here's a list of the assumptions being made - not hard data provided by the narrator, but things I'm assuming - and you let me know where you think the flaw is. I assume you'll have an argument beyond "trust me I'm the seer".

• The Beast/Demon lynched D1 was Indarra.
• The Bureaucrat/Politician killed N1 was AvatarVecna.
• The Day Baner/Executioner lynched D2 was Durzan, by word of Saposhiente.
• The Lover lynched D3 was Lex-Kat.
• The Vortexer/Vortexor lynched D4 was Gray Mage.
• The Devil/Robot Devil lynched D5 was flat_footed.

I've never lied about my numbers. The voting records are available for everybody to see. The dead roles are constantly on display. If all six of those things are true, and the narrator hasn't been lying to me about my numbers, you can't be the Seer/Fool.

So where's the flaw?

[Xihirli]

The flaw is that you're not leaving room for vote manipulation powers, which a game with so many power roles is sure to have.

[AvatarVecna]

The flaw is that you're not leaving room for vote manipulation powers, which a game with so many power roles is sure to have.

"This power might maybe exist, so you have to assume that it does and that your information is useless".

Sure, okay. Have fun then.

[Grand Arbiter]

The flaw is that you're not leaving room for vote manipulation powers, which a game with so many power roles is sure to have.

"This power might maybe exist, so you have to assume that it does and that your information is useless".

Sure, okay. Have fun then.

I don't think it makes your evaluation useless, we have a firm foundation for further analysis.

Theoretically speaking: if claims are taken face value(mine and/or Xihirli's for example), could/would the presence of a vote manipulator make the numbers work?

[flat_footed]

flat_footed

I could probably help with a lot of the speculation, if you don't mind me confiscating your tinfoil cap.