How might a nation react to the end of a generations-long war of survival?

[PhoenixPhyre]

There's a nation in my setting, the Remnant Dynasty. They're the remnant because about 90 years ago they were driven out of their high-mountain home down into the lower mountains and plains by a seemingly endless tide of winter-aspected creatures (frost goblins, frost giants, worgs, winter wolves, etc.) that they call the Hungering Frost. They managed to hold the only pass out of the high plateau but have been driven back slowly until about 5 years ago.

Effectively, every winter (from the first snowfall in mid autumn until the major thaw in late spring) they are under attack. The level of conflict fluctuates--some years it's a white tide, others it's only scattered bands of attackers. The attackers seem intent on exterminating the people without compromise or communication. They take no prisoners and do not surrender (but will flee if beaten severely). No one knows why they're so bitter of foes. To fight back, the original people (all dragonborn) recruited local tribes of orcs and goblinoids[1] and welded them into a cohesive nation. Everything revolves around this war. They're among the most industrialized and technologically advanced nations, but they're small in numbers and constantly pre-occupied with the Hungering Frost.

But that's going to end soon. 5 years ago, a heroic effort drove the Frost back far enough that they could finish fortifying the only pass with a massive wall, and the attacks mostly stopped (or were repulsed with minimal casualties). And then recently, an adventuring group discovered an elemental locus that, when activated, began balancing the elements. This will force the Frost to retreat a long way, as its presence there is due to a planar rift and rebalancing the elements will stem the flow, if not stop it entirely. This means that within 5 years or so (very roughly), the war will mostly end. I expect the Dynastic forces to assault the retreating Frost and destroy it entirely, but that's in the future.

The question I need help with is--and then what. You've got this nation whose entire culture revolves around war and has now for the entire lifetime of everyone currently living. And then the war will be over. What might they do? They're in a confederacy/trade union with several other nations, but there is unconquered orc land to the north and tribes of nomadic elves to the east. Will they decide to expand to keep power? Will they enter a decadent phase? Will they turn on each other/themselves?

[1] neither orcs nor goblins (nor anyone else) is inherently evil in this setting. These orcs are relatively civilized and form a large chunk of the farming and infantry of the nation. The goblins are the tinkerers and artisans. The ruling dragonborn are martial in the main.

References:
* Common Knowledge
* Clans and peoples
* Local Maps
* Continent Map

[Mechalich]

Your background document says this nation has only 150,000 people in it. That's...not very many. At best they could mobilize maybe 12% of the population (historical mobilizations even in emergencies almost never exceed 10%, the Confederacy may have reached 11% in the US Civil War), which is only 18,000 soldiers, most of whom would probably be militia and unsuitable for an expeditionary efforts. If they really have been fighting at extreme cost for generations, mobilization should in fact be much less because there will be significantly fewer adult males in the population than there would otherwise be. Following the conclusion of the war, I suspect your state would possess less than 5,000 full time soldiers capable of engaging in offensive operations against anyone. Now, if the other states are equally modest in size, 5,000 troops could accomplish a great deal, though probably not outright conquest.

The real question is what the individual leaders think should happen. In particular, do they feel that their neighbors owe them for their lengthy defense against this otherworldly scourge that surely strained their economy nearly to the breaking point (war against extraplanar invaders doesn't tend to supply a lot of plunder)? If so, maybe they'll demand compensation and, if this is refused, send the troops to take the necessary funds at swordpoint.

However, I think it would be more likely for this nation to move swiftly to claim all the lands previously under dominion of the Frost as their own, and then distribute it accordingly as a means to pay down what are likely the crown's crushing debts using a combination of land deals, long term leases, and other bargains. It probably matters who holds the debt - is it noble houses within the nation, trade guilds, or foreigners?

[PhoenixPhyre]

Thanks for the responses so far.

A few responses of my own:

@jjordan
The main factions I've identified so far are as follows:
* A small but wealthy and personally powerful group of hardliners who basically believe in Manifest Destiny (and exterminating all dragons they come across). At first, I'm pretty sure they'll focus on prosecuting the war to the bitter end.
* The leadership of Clan Gal wants to stay in power. Theoretically the Queen and Clan Shakti rule, but Gal is the one from whom the generals come. They're conservative and want to hold on to power, which means keeping the nation on a war footing. They have been infected hard with a love of luxuries recently, though.
* The southern tribes and clans want trade and ideas from outside, as well as relief from the austerities and war-production quotas. They'd like to turn their attention to other things other than weapons.
* The heartland plains and forest tribes and clans basically just want peace at this point. They're the main source of manpower, and they're tired of having all their fathers, sons, husbands, (and women!) come back as corpses or as cripples. These are the most numerous, but the least politically connected.
* The "returning" clan members, who were cut off from the rest for a long time and have rejoined recently, are the spoilers. Wealthy by comparison (since they weren't under existential threat), they've joined the clans but haven't fully integrated into society. They may get angry if the nation continues being repressive.

@Mechalich
Economically, the nation has been on a command status for years. Basically a planned economy, with everything diverted to military production where possible. Without a war, that's going to run into severe problems. The debts are almost entirely internal, as the nations didn't have significant contact except in the last 5 years. Clans Gal and Byarsh, plus orc tribe Kard have the biggest physical debts, but Anu has major claims since they suffered the most, especially recently.

My thought is that they'll try to expand out onto the Nocthian Plateau (the valley on the other side of the mountains, where the Frost is coming from). If all they retake is their ancestral lands in the foothills, no big deal. But I doubt it will stop there. At the center of the plateau is an ancient city currently buried in ice. The descendants of the former residents live to the south of the Dynasty and the plateau, and would get rather annoyed if the Dynasty took control of it. Not to mention that the former residents used to hoard magic treasures (to "protect them from misuse"), and there are legends of vaults full of treasures and arcane artifacts under that city. They'll have to defeat the dragon that currently lairs there and is the visible leader of the Frost (the real leader being stuck in the Plane of Ice).

As for the sizes--they're the second smallest of the nations (their southern neighbor is smaller at about 120k), but none of the 4 major nations are that large. The largest is maybe 300k, and they're spread out quite thin and not very militarized. The only other one with any significant military establishment (beyond local militias for defense against monsters and minor raids) is the furthest away. The "uncivilized" orc tribes to the north are numerous, but totally unorganized beyond the tribal level and frequently prone to in-fighting.

These reduced sizes and isolated nations are because everyone is finally recovering from a massive cataclysmic event about 200 years ago that stopped all magic for 50 years and killed (either directly or through starvation, earthquakes, etc.) about 70-80% of the population of the continent and a large chunk of the total world's population. Stupid player characters As a result, each of the nations is a survivor group that is finally growing out to the point they've found each other (an event that happened about 5 years ago due to some other PCs getting adventurous).

The four are in a loose international group (think the WTO, but with some teeth) called the Federated Nations Council; that organization has control of most of the "super-powered" (ie PC-class, mid/high level characters), and one of the founding members of that organization runs a dojo/monastery in the Dynasty and is considered a hero of the realm. That organization (and the group that runs it) would look very unfavorably on open warfare among the Federated Nations.

[Grek]

Sounds like you're basically going to get three factions:

The Militarists, who want to finish the war by seizing the Nocthian Plateau and killing the dragon. This lets them seize the dragon's hoard and the city's treasures, which will in turn be used to pay off everyone's debts. Gal, Byarsh and Kard are members, with the Hardliner faction providing the leadership and intellectual support. The more cynical members realize the war footing can't last and are looking to come out on top while bankrupting their rivals. The more bloodthirsty ones are looking for a war and will probably try to kick off a civil war if the Heartlanders give them an excuse.

The Heartlanders, who want an end to the war and a return to peace-time liberty. They're the popular support faction and will probably be either monarchist (if the Queen and Gal are seen to be at odds) or populist (if there's a charismatic Anu leader available to lead the peace protests). They don't have political connections, but they can passively resist and refuse to pay taxes and deliver conscripts until their demands are met. If they get any real power, expect them to demand reconstruction funds from the outer tribes to rebuild the economy.

The Outer Tribes, who want a return to the pre-war situation. They don't want to be involved in a war (which the Militarists need to win), but they also don't want to pay to rebuild the Heartlands (which the Heartlanders will invariably demand). Their win condition is time: if neither of the other two factions seizes power or sparks a civil war in this generation, the Outer Tribes get what they want by default. Expect them to try to pit internal groups against one another - the Gal against the Byarsh, the Monarchy against the Plateau Diaspora, etc. and to be big on internationalism.

[PhoenixPhyre]

Thanks @Grek.

I guess I'll have to decide which side the Queen will come down on, because she's got lots of moral sway (even if she's not directly powerful). She's relatively young and popular, and some of the lesser tribes, especially the heartland and "magic-heavy" (the main mystical tribe of orcs and the wizards/alchemists/weird folk of the dragonborn), are very much behind her. I could see her getting feisty if the Militarists try to pull anything major. Right now she's the main thing keeping the nation together. The orc and goblin tribes are pledged to her clan (which is basically her direct family), not to any abstract nation. She doesn't play those cards much, and doesn't openly propose or veto policies much, but her approval is required for anything major to pass the ruling council.

[noob]

Maybe randomly some people decide that the right thing to do is to go through the rift and bring the war in the cold dimension?(like the people that fought too much and only knew war for their entire life?)
Then afterwards the governement could keep encouraging people to keep doing a war effort for those people that might or might not be real (and in part of that war effort rebuild stuff and overall make sure everything works well from their broken by endless war way of seeing)

[PhoenixPhyre]

Maybe randomly some people decide that the right thing to do is to go through the rift and bring the war in the cold dimension?(like the people that fought too much and only knew war for their entire life?)
Then afterwards the governement could keep encouraging people to keep doing a war effort for those people that might or might not be real (and in part of that war effort rebuild stuff and overall make sure everything works well from their broken by endless war way of seeing)

Some people might, sure. It's an effective form of suicide, but some people are like that. That would be well after they take out the dragon, and the rift might have closed by then (depending on details I don't have right now, especially since I want to leave room for PCs to get involved), but that's an option.

The rift's going to close "soon" (within a few years) unless someone powerful takes significant active measures to keep it open. And no one on this side has the power to open one. It's an imbalance, and the balance is going to get redressed. So an ongoing effort will hit a wall pretty soon one way or another.

[noob]

Some people might, sure. It's an effective form of suicide, but some people are like that. That would be well after they take out the dragon, and the rift might have closed by then (depending on details I don't have right now, especially since I want to leave room for PCs to get involved), but that's an option.

The rift's going to close "soon" (within a few years) unless someone powerful takes significant active measures to keep it open. And no one on this side has the power to open one. It's an imbalance, and the balance is going to get redressed. So an ongoing effort will hit a wall pretty soon one way or another.

The question was more about the possibility of a faction using those virtual(probably dead on the other side) people as a reason for keeping a militaristic structure.
We are still in the time period where the rift is here and the people in power might be desperate on keeping their influence.
Essentially it would be starship troopers in fantasy-land (but without focus on the people that fights).

[Tvtyrant]

I would say there would be a definite pro-war faction that feels like the only way to restore unity would be to invade a surrounding country. This faction would idolize the comradery of the war and the consensus it required in thought and action.

[noob]

I would say there would be a definite pro-war faction that feels like the only way to restore unity would be to invade a surrounding country. This faction would idolize the comradery of the war and the consensus it required in thought and action.

It is easier to argue for invading the opponent they just repelled:there is still lots of hatred that is not going to vanish into a vacuum as fast as the rift.
so during the time frame the rifts exists the pro war faction could go all "let us send very well equipped men through the rift to invade their world"

[Tvtyrant]

It is easier to argue for invading the opponent they just repelled:there is still lots of hatred that is not going to vanish into a vacuum as fast as the rift.
so during the time frame the rifts exists the pro war faction could go all "let us send very well equipped men through the rift to invade their world"

Maybe, but a number of powers have turned a successful defense into a power grab elsewhere. Athens most classically.

[zlefin]

One big question is what happens to all the soldiers: If the war ends, it's hard to justify paying the wages for SO many troops. But how available are the alternate jobs, and waht other skills do they have than war to fall back on?
Having a large number of unemployed young men with combat training often causes problems. (historical examples exist, not going into for forum reasons). Many may turn to banditry or mercenary work.

[PhoenixPhyre]

It is easier to argue for invading the opponent they just repelled:there is still lots of hatred that is not going to vanish into a vacuum as fast as the rift.
so during the time frame the rifts exists the pro war faction could go all "let us send very well equipped men through the rift to invade their world"

That's true. In this particular world, though, "very well equipped men" are almost uniformly adventurers. The elites of the war faction are also those who want to keep the power for themselves, not go charging blindly into another plane.

Maybe, but a number of powers have turned a successful defense into a power grab elsewhere. Athens most classically.

Also true. I can see two main "targets" for this that wouldn't raise the ire of the other civilized nations--
* There are the "wild" orcs to the north. This could be phrased as "bringing them into the fold" or "pacifying the barbarian tribes".
* There is a small civilization of semi-nomadic elves on the plains to the east. There's already friction there, between the settlers and the nomads. The tribes refused to join the Federated Nations, so they're "fair game".

One big question is what happens to all the soldiers: If the war ends, it's hard to justify paying the wages for SO many troops. But how available are the alternate jobs, and waht other skills do they have than war to fall back on?
Having a large number of unemployed young men with combat training often causes problems. (historical examples exist, not going into for forum reasons). Many may turn to banditry or mercenary work.

As a note, the current war economy is basically conscription & command economy. The change to a more dynamic, peacetime economy has already begun due to 5 years of relative peace, but the soldiers aren't getting more than nominal wages. Each clan and sub-clan has to provide a certain tithe of soldiers for the front or the equivalent in goods and services, as well as support for those soldiers.

This is the root of my concern. Avenues I see--
* Bands get together and hire out as mercenaries to clear some of the "wilderness" areas for some of the Federated Nations. This is probably the most peaceful option.
* Bands get together and turn bandit. This might cause a mess with the nascent international trade routes.
* Bands get together and try to settle/plunder the newly-freed lands. This might make the southern neighbors unhappy, as they consider that area their patrimony that they were driven out from.

There aren't any large-scale wars (other than this one) going on, but there are pressures looming on the horizon in a couple of places.