MitD XIX: The Potted Plant Is Starting To Look Reasonable

[halfeye]

You're saying that knocking Miko & her horse through the wall is not something you could imagine a manifestation of childhood fears of a monster under the bed doing?

An adult can safely look for a monster under the bed, and Miko is an adult. Therefore a monster under the bed would be no threat to Miko.

[Ruck]

As other has noted here this thread is not really a vote but it is a kind of a bet. So if you were to make a bet would you be more confident betting on "Protean" or "literally anything but a Protean" - assuming your payout is equal in any case

In other words: consensus has favoured Protean over other proposed alternatives, but what is your estimate of absolute probability of Protean being true rather than relative probability?

Well, a problem with this estimate is, as Grey Wolf said, the number of candidates who haven't been proposed is unknowable and could theoretically be infinite. Now, probabilistically, as I said, I think at this point it's pretty unlikely that candidates who are a good fit haven't been discovered yet. (Although maybe I should adjust that, since even Grey Wolf doesn't seem very confident in estimating the chances.)

I'm also rounding the creatures I consider an infinitesimally small likelihood of being correct to 0. I have to simplify to make any reasonable estimates.

I have a higher confidence in the Protean than most, as well. I would probably put my estimates right now of the creatures proposed as 85% Protean / 15% Slaad. (Metastachydium was pretty convincing; that's a significant move for me.) I think everything else proposed is unlikely enough to be negligible.

Like I said, I don't know what the chances are that MitD's species is yet to be discovered. But if I did the math right, operating from my estimates above, there would have to be a 42% chance for MitD's species to be in the undiscovered/un-proposed pile before an even-money bet on the Protean vs. the field becomes unprofitable. I think that's probably higher than the actual likelihood MitD hasn't been proposed yet. Probably higher enough, even, that if I'm overconfident in the Protean and its true likelihood is lower, iI think it's probably a profitable bet. So I'd be comfortable taking an even-money bet on the Protean vs. the field.

[Tubercular Ox]

Someone tell me how and I will take all of these bets. Escrow services won't do gambling and bookies only let you bet on things they understand.

[Peelee]

Someone tell me how and I will take all of these bets. Escrow services won't do gambling and bookies only let you bet on things they understand.

Send all cash to me. Just drop it in the post office box with a sticky note attached that says "Peelee". They'll know what to do.

[Tubercular Ox]

Send all cash to me. Just drop it in the post office box with a sticky note attached that says "Peelee". They'll know what to do.

I won't do this without escrow of some sort.

[Ruck]

Well, you'd have to find someone trusted enough to be the escrow to hold the money for both sides of the bet. (No offense, but I don't think I know anyone here well enough to wager real money with them on their word alone.) You'd also have to be willing to have the money in the bet tied up for years, since it probably will take that long to get the reveal of MitD's species.

As per not knowing each other well enough, though, I similarly doubt I have any mutual acquaintances with anyone here who we could agree upon as an escrow. (Unless you want me to hold it-- I've been in the gambling world long enough to take my word seriously when it comes to gambling matters, although if you aren't you would have no reason to take my word on it.) It may not be logistically feasible to actually bet money on these outcomes.

[Gurgeh]

Is your screenname from The Player of Games?

It is. I was just discovering Banks when I signed up to these forums, so it felt like a good fit at the time!

[Peelee]

I won't do this without escrow of some sort.

Spoiler: Done.

Show

[Mordar]

Send all cash to me. Just drop it in the post office box with a sticky note attached that says "Peelee". They'll know what to do.

I won't do this without escrow of some sort.

Spoiler: Done.

Show

But...I clicked reply to make this joke.

So now I just have to say I bet the house (and fast moving snail automobile...anyone? anyone?) on "not a protean".

- M

[Tubercular Ox]

So now I just have to say I bet the house (and fast moving snail automobile...anyone? anyone?) on "not a protean".

See, I don't believe that, either. That's why I would love to get some real money in here, to see what odds people would take if there were no excuses.

I'd trust Crusher. Especially if we did something clever with blockchain so that his only choices are pay the one or pay the other.

[Peelee]

See, I don't believe that, either. That's why I would love to get some real money in here, to see what odds people would take if there were no excuses.

The Mod on the Silver Mountain: If you're actually being serious, no, there will be no real money involved here. Any and all financial transactions are prohibited on the Giantitp forum.

[Shallots]

Looked through the existing suggestions at the beginning of the thread and didn't see this, so here's my guess.

It's mostly based on two things:

1. The fact that the MitD has likely been to the Astral Plane (but has no specific memories of it) (comic 833)
2. What the Astral Plane is (comic 1138)

What if the MitD came from the Astral Plane — that is, it started out as the idea of some sort of "monster", and that idea got big enough, in a sense, to gain a physical form, in much the same way as various other powerful ideas became the Outer Planes?

So my thought is that the MitD's true identity is the Monster… Under the Bed.


Pros:

• Thematically fits both the childish personality and the fact that he's always in the dark.
• No need to worry about specific skills or power levels. (Though I wonder if Xykon would have made a mistake revealing him; perhaps he's only as powerful as he is when you can't see him?)
• That said, it arguably makes sense that he can teleport; after all, if you turn on the lights and look under the bed, the monster's not there anymore, so clearly he must have gone somewhere else, right? (Of course, that's more about teleporting himself rather than other people, but it's not a big leap to think it could be both.)
• Easily fits into an enclosed space approximately the size of a human.

Cons:

• It sounds like he's part of a species rather than a completely unique being, and that that species gets quite big (probably too big to fit under a bed?). Perhaps it wasn't just "the monster under the bed" though, but all sorts of things that go bump in the night that were spawned from this idea in the Astral Plane?
• Why would humans but not goblins be disgusted when seeing him? Maybe it has something to do with like, dissonance from seeing an abstract concept as a real thing? And the goblins just don't have the same superstition so aren't affected in the same way, or something?
• How would he recognize that the paper Tsukiko was working on was half a ritual? Maybe that was just a case of fresh eyes, or some half-remembered thing that he heard Xykon & Redcloak talking about at one point?
• One thing that a monster under the bed would not do is have a strong smell, though that might just mean that he gets self-conscious about having any smell at all.

In all honesty, while looking into this and writing up the cons there I've lost a lot of confidence in this guess, but I've gotten this far so I might as well post it. It could be that part of it is on the right track, even if other parts aren't; perhaps it'll give someone else an idea, at least.

I like this idea that monster is simply the boogeyman, the anthropomorphized concept of fear as something that pushes people to not do stupid/dangerous things. It would sort of even fit with redcloak knowing what the monster is and his speech about how a paladin not having fear is what is really unnatural because it removes the survival instinct. The circus scene and him getting tired with people looking at him could be using the common idea that boogeymen transform into what people are scared with the act of transforming being exhausting and common phobias like say insects or undead might not translate well between the different species in the audience like the goblins (sort of like the flavor about humor not translating well for the save on hideous laughter in old editions). Teleportation could be from stories about spiriting away those that disobey rules.

It's a stretch, but knowing about the ritual could relate to how some boogeymen stories throughout the world are associated with witches and the occult, or maybe the monster just has a bonus to checks to recognize dangerous magic and artifacts that people need to be scared away from using. I can't think of anything to explain the strength except some region's equivalent of a boogeyman being a hulking beast. Unless Tsukiko had developed self doubts about not being strong enough to be a proper paladin causing the monster to shapeshift into something exceedingly powerful, but that's a power as plot demands type cop out. If it wasn't still copyrighted, a version of the boogeyman from a book I recently reread has even more similarities with the MitD, but it is so explanations based on generic myths will have to do.

[Keltest]

Spoiler: Done.

Show

I was unprepared. This was incredible.

[Crusher]

On a more serious note I would like to know - does anybody here in the thread thinks that any of the proposed alternatives (but probably a Protean) is more than 50% likely? That is, you would be more comfortable betting on Therburwerklasaurus (but probably a Protean) than betting on "Anything but Therburwerklasaurus (but probably a Protean), including things nobody ever proposed"?

I can't answer the question definitively because

Spoiler: Spoiler

Show

I'm not The Giant.

However, I can tell you that the population of voting forum-posters does not collectively think its 50% likely he's a Protean (and anything but Protean is much lower).

As of a few months ago, 142 people had voted for various candidates, and the Protean only got 51.13 of those votes (very close to 36%). Even if we strip out the minor, potentially non-serious votes and only include guesses on the "league table" (which may or may not be correct. I don't know for certain the MitD isn't an Enveloper or an Extremely heavily templated Giant Space Hamster), its still 51.13 out of 118.49 for a little over 43%.

So, I'm sure there are specific people who think the MitD is more than 50% likely to be *something*, collectively as a forum population I don't think we're that confident about any one specific candidate.

[Ruck]

The Mod on the Silver Mountain: If you're actually being serious, no, there will be no real money involved here. Any and all financial transactions are prohibited on the Giantitp forum.

Heh, I didn't actually know that was a rule. But I already have a gambling forum I can post on for gambling, and also I generally discourage gambling if you're not a professional (or aspiring to be).

[Metastachydium]

Spoiler: Done.

Show

If I was a government, I'd give you a medal for this. Make that several medals, actually.

[Timy]

If I was a government, I'd give you a medal for this. Make that several medals, actually.

Be careful, crows eat flowers ! (I know it because the internet told me).

[Peelee]

I was unprepared. This was incredible.

If I was a government, I'd give you a medal for this. Make that several medals, actually.

Yes yes, all glory to me and whatnot.

[Tubercular Ox]

Heh, I didn't actually know that was a rule. But I already have a gambling forum I can post on for gambling, and also I generally discourage gambling if you're not a professional (or aspiring to be).

I was more interested in giving people the opportunity to commit to their assessments than winning. After what happened last time, even 20% seems like too much confidence.

[Peelee]

Heh, I didn't actually know that was a rule. But I already have a gambling forum I can post on for gambling, and also I generally discourage gambling if you're not a professional (or aspiring to be).

Posters are not permitted to advertise or sell goods or services on this forum.

The Mod on the Silver Mountain: Generally, if two users want money to change hands, it shouldn't be done on this Forum.

[Unoriginal]

It's probably been covered before, but a point I think is important when doing MitD species speculations is considering how recognizable/known the species is in-universe.

From the online pages:

- Xykon and Redcloak know what is species is and how powerful members of said species are, however they are also surprised to hear the MitD being familiar with the Astral Plane.

- Xykon claims to have read about the species.

- Oona at least thinks she identified the species after catching a glance without the umbrella. She also claims he is small for his species, but still growing.

- O-Chul says he has an idea about the species, despite presumably never seeing what the MitD looks like. He also states Lien wouldn't believe him if he told her.

This last point in particular indicates to me Lien would know what O-Chul was talking about if he named the species, she just wouldn't think it's possible.

The reason why this in particular is interesting is that while Xykon is an Epic-level individual with a life-and-undeathtime of experience with all sort of powerful beings, Redcloak is known to read 3.X books to the point he considers the existence of a feat he doesn't know to be next to impossible, and Oona is an expert on monsters, O-Chul and Lien... well, aren't.

Neither of them are dumb, of course (as Lien would remind us), but neither of them are scholars or with a lot of skill points to invest in Knowledge skills. Neither of them were able to identify Oona's flying mount, for example, and while Lien knows sea creatures (as when she explains the aquatic troll varient) she also didn't know that acid sharks were a thing.

So IMO this means that the species isn't well-known in-universe, but still known enough that someone write about them and that a mid-high-level Paladin would at least recognize the name of the species.

[Peelee]

- O-Chul says he has an idea about the species, despite presumably never seeing what the MitD looks like. He also states Lien wouldn't believe him if he told her.

This last point in particular indicates to me Lien would know what O-Chul was talking about if he named the species, she just wouldn't think it's possible.

It doesn't indicate that to me - it could just as easily mean Lien might not believe such a thing even exists.

[Tubercular Ox]

Everybody who thinks they know what the Monster in the Dark is has a connection to the gates.

Xykon and Redcloak, of course.

O-Chul and Lien belong to a secret club that's focused on protecting one and teaches inductees things they need to know.

Oona hunts near one.

Qarr, who recognizes the Monster in the Dark on a calendar page (and expects it to be taller), is working with the IFCC on their plan to do something with the gates.

In addition to any other thing they have in common, of course.

[Keltest]

Everybody who thinks they know what the Monster in the Dark is has a connection to the gates.

Xykon and Redcloak, of course.

O-Chul and Lien belong to a secret club that's focused on protecting one and teaches inductees things they need to know.

Oona hunts near one.

Qarr, who recognizes the Monster in the Dark on a calendar page (and expects it to be taller), is working with the IFCC on their plan to do something with the gates.

In addition to any other thing they have in common, of course.

Given that the Gates are the MacGuffin, im not sure why thats surprising. O-chul had to go consult an outside source and Lien still doesnt know. And Qarr has no direct connection to the gates himself.

[Unoriginal]

It doesn't indicate that to me - it could just as easily mean Lien might not believe such a thing even exists.

Possible, but that would still mean she understand what it is enough to have reasons to think its existence is unbelievable.

To give an example: if someone has never heard of Bigfoot, they would have no reason to think the sentence "Bigfoot attacked me" to be unbelievable. They would likely be confused until they learned what a Bigfoot is, sure, but they wouldn't be in disbelief of the claim from the get go.

Plus as I said, neither O-Chul nor Lien are scholars, and it's unlikely O-Chul hit the books while they traveled (due to lacking the books to hit). So if O-Chul has heard of the species as an Azure City Paladin, it's likely Lien did too, even if she considers them to be a legend or hoax.

[Tubercular Ox]

Plus as I said, neither O-Chul nor Lien are scholars, and it's unlikely O-Chul hit the books while they traveled (due to lacking the books to hit). So if O-Chul has heard of the species as an Azure City Paladin, it's likely Lien did too, even if she considers them to be a legend or hoax.

Qarr and Oona both say it should be bigger, and Xykon is continually frustrated that it's not more intimidating. He probably doesn't know it won't eat the kids he keeps feeding it.

So O-Chul tells a story of a moderately sized creature that's this close to being an ally, then leaks that he thinks it's a maneating monster that should be at least twice as big. Or doesn't, as the case may be.

[InvisibleBison]

This last point in particular indicates to me Lien would know what O-Chul was talking about if he named the species, she just wouldn't think it's possible.

I think you're making an unjustified assumption here, that seriously undermines your argument. O-Chul doesn't say that he thinks Lien wouldn't believe him if he named MitD's species, he says he didn't think Lien would believe him if he told her his theory about what MitD was. A theory is, or at least can be, significantly more substantial than just naming a species; it could well include explaining what that species is if Lien isn't familiar with it. So I don't think this exchange offers sufficient evidence to conclude that MitD's species must be something that Lien is familiar with on her own.

[Peelee]

Possible, but that would still mean she understand what it is enough to have reasons to think its existence is unbelievable.

To give an example: if someone has never heard of Bigfoot, they would have no reason to think the sentence "Bigfoot attacked me" to be unbelievable. They would likely be confused until they learned what a Bigfoot is, sure, but they wouldn't be in disbelief of the claim from the get go.

Plus as I said, neither O-Chul nor Lien are scholars, and it's unlikely O-Chul hit the books while they traveled (due to lacking the books to hit). So if O-Chul has heard of the species as an Azure City Paladin, it's likely Lien did too, even if she considers them to be a legend or hoax.

Conversely, nothing indicates O-Chul knows it's name. He could say "this giant hairy ape-like humanoid attacked me" just as easily. Or, using Protean as an example "he is a creature than can take on new forms randomly or even at will". No name required, and something that could be unbelievable.

In fact, that O-Chul needs scholars to look into it indicates that he does have a description but not a name.

[Unoriginal]

I think you're making an unjustified assumption here, that seriously undermines your argument. O-Chul doesn't say that he thinks Lien wouldn't believe him if he named MitD's species, he says he didn't think Lien would believe him if he told her his theory about what MitD was. A theory is, or at least can be, significantly more substantial than just naming a species; it could well include explaining what that species is if Lien isn't familiar with it. So I don't think this exchange offers sufficient evidence to conclude that MitD's species must be something that Lien is familiar with on her own.

Conversely, nothing indicates O-Chul knows it's name. He could say "this giant hairy ape-like humanoid attacked me" just as easily. Or, using Protean as an example "he is a creature than can take on new forms randomly or even at will". No name required, and something that could be unbelievable.

In fact, that O-Chul needs scholars to look into it indicates that he does have a description but not a name.

Fair points, I hadn't considered them.

Thank you for pointing that out.

That would indicate that the MitD's species is known by people like Xykon, Redcloak, and Oona, who can be considered high-end experts on the topic (if from different angles), but not by people like O-Chul or Lien.

That would make the nature of the species fairly obscure knowledge, in-universe.

It would also mean the "when did you visit the Astral Plane?" question either indicates that even the experts don't know enough about the species to associate them with planar travel, or that they know enough to know it's not a common thing for said species.

[Crusher]

Everybody who thinks they know what the Monster in the Dark is has a connection to the gates.

Xykon and Redcloak, of course.

O-Chul and Lien belong to a secret club that's focused on protecting one and teaches inductees things they need to know.

Oona hunts near one.

Qarr, who recognizes the Monster in the Dark on a calendar page (and expects it to be taller), is working with the IFCC on their plan to do something with the gates.

In addition to any other thing they have in common, of course.

This is an interesting point. They're a wildly dispirit group with close proximity to planar gates or a familiarity with interplanar travel in common. Also, if familiarity with... planar travel, perhaps, is their common thread, what kind of monster would fit that connection while also being a surprise to know about the Astral Plane?

That having been said, Oona's near a planar gate but doesn't know it, she's just an expert on monsters. So, maybe that's not their point of commonality.