WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[Batcathat]

Reading back, I just discovered that AV did maths when Cao was lynched that showed an extra 13 votes getting dumped on her. Hmm. Who did that? And how did I miss it?

That would be AV themselves, assuming they were honest.

My power is the ability to hijack the lynch with a giant pile of votes; upside is that I can use it while dead, downside is that the first time I use it, I have to target myself. Can you believe flat would give me that kind of power? It feels pretty bastard to require a self-kill, especially when he knows it's not actually a self-kill but I don't know that until after D1.

D1, Murska votes Cazero over Cao, at a time when we didn't know the lucky number shifted wagon-targets. That could easily have been one wolf saving another. D2, Cao claimed an info power unprompted while not even on the chopping block (he was "getting voted" but with the understanding that votes would be shifting away from him). I see I can use my power to take out Cao (since targeting myself shifts votes to him). Can you blame me for taking the shot? He looks pretty sus.

[MerelBlackbird]

OK, AV said she did that manipulation on Cao.

Anyway. Working on! I'll tell full thoughts when I'm done.

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That would be AV themselves, assuming they were honest.

Ninja'd, thanks. Right.

[Illven]

Alright, my top wolf read right now is Kraken my main reason is they seem desperate to misyeet me.

They think I haven't been posting enough, which is fair.

But more importantly they tried to spin me asking if they were neutral as a wolfy thing to do.

So their logic if I follow it is.

Step 1. Illven and Jeen are both wolves. He's wrong but so far nothing illogical.
Step 2. I think if their is a town leaning neutral, I must think there is a wolf leaning neutral. Again I see why a townie kraken could think that.
Here's where the train derails thou.
Step 3. Why would I ask Kraken their alignment to scout out if they are a wolf siding neutral, instead of asking the wolf with active votes on them.
And then if Jeen disagreed why did I insist I know better and am going to do it anyway.
Step 4 And then even past that. Why Kraken specifically?

Meanwhile when I explained my logic it's.

Step 1. Vecna is claiming a neutral that doesn't know their win condition. Step 2. Flat posted that win condition 11 was failed publicly. Step 3 Decide if it's possible that Flat is posting neutral win conditions publicly as part of bastardy, figure it's worth asking if player number 11 is neutral.

Persolus's power and actions make no sense in tandem. I need to survive till end of game to win. I'm going to proceed to use my power that makes me immune to any and all night kills (since they can't be retargeted back to me) on other people?

Book is my third most likely wolf choice cause I notice they tend to be even quieter when a wolf.

After that, Merel isn't exactly a greenhorn, and thus going I can't read anyone seems alil sus.

Lentrax is too new for me to read.

Batcathat has a slight town read for now, maybe that'll change on a re-read.

And Blade and Athedia seem solidly town.

[Persolus]

For the record, i didn't think to ask Flat what would happen if i targeted myself until last night.

[bladescape]

The lack of disagreement with the general POE makes me shifty. Hm.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I would really, really like to avoid claiming until D5.

Illven, your own logic sort of makes sense, but if the wolf team was trying to sus out a wolf-leaning neutral, why would they risk additional heat on the wolf who is in a tight wagon race against (presumably) a non-wolf?

That's not the entire basis for my argument, to be clear - it's more that I read through some 400 posts and there wasn't really a single action or vote that strongly stood out as town.

You raise a good point about Persolus, though. Hm.

I want to wagon either Illven or Merel - or at least force a claim, if I am being outed here. Blade, what do you think?

[bladescape]

I should've been killed by wolves so I don't have to think about this game while helping work move offices.

Uhhh. Illven's rebuff of your thoughts seems decent? Kinda feels like the POE lite tho as a reads list. Which I shouldn't complain about but here I am doing it shush.

Merel... feels innocent in tone.

Honestly?

Book Wombat

This game makes the most sense if it's BW + a bussing partner. Kraken's posts have either pocketed me or legitimately are town. Illven's obsession with the neutral claim correction is more in line with town!illven. Both of those aren't great reasons but they feel right to me on a gut level. I think BCH might be trying to play up their participation of Jeen for cred. Their posts earlier rang of wolfy "But I bussed my partner gimme cred!!!"

Pre-warning of course being that I'm deliriously tired rn so I reserve the right to wake up tomorrow morning and call myself an idiot for this post.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Fair enough.

BookWombat.

But I do want a partial claim from either Illven or Merel today. I know it's hypocritical, but I want to know what either one can actually do. The fact that they're just sort of skating by here is... worrisome.

[Batcathat]

BW having bussed Jeen is possible, though the timing makes it less likely, I think (BW was the second to vote Jeen D2 and the first D3, if I remember correctly). That said, I'm not really sure who I'd prefer as a counter-wagon to Kraken.

I still think claiming role names (either by everyone or just the most likely suspects) might be worth it. The chance of outright catching a wolf in a lie isn't great, but the considering a few people have already mentioned their role names with seemingly no negative consequences, I think the risk of doing it isn't very big either.

[MerelBlackbird]

Heyyy!

I finished my readups this morning and after BW's ISO - you may be right.

Book Wombat

I'll see you after I get home from ceramics.

[Athedia]

"I don't necessarily like Kraken putting off the role claim yet again. But I don't see anyone voting so ... Book Wombat"

[Illven]

While I'd prefer to vote Kraken, I'm okay with voting Book wombat

[Let'sGetKraken]

Blade - other than Book, who's your biggest wolfread? I like the consensus from a survival perspective but I am worried the lack of resistance means we're going to miss again.

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Other than me, obviously.

[Book Wombat]

I'm here with not much to say.
My role is pretty high up there, quite literally, as I'm the High Roller (haha, get it?). Can boost powers for a night; N1 nobody, N2 AvatarVecna, N3 corncobweb and N4 Cazero. Of course, this basically says nothing due to them all being dead and the power itself generally not having obvious effects.

Slight townleans: bladescape (the power role thing early on, and a bunch of other things), Illven (some style stuff, also for voting me), Batcathat (for giving me town points even though I'm an easy wagon, and not worth pocketing really).
Slight wolfleans: Athedia (something about the JeenLeen interactions ping me, not sure though), Lentrax (power seems quite convenient for a wolf to claim? also not sure, and yes it is kinda funny since my power is also easy to claim).

In general still in confusion, but going with Lentrax for now.

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Also, claims? Did I miss any?

Athedia - The House?
bladescape - ?
MerelBlackbird - Master Technician?
Illven - ?
Lentrax - ? (one-use wolf negation?)
Persolus - Joker?
Book Wombat - High Roller?
Let'sGetKraken - ?
Batcathat - ?

[Athedia]

"Okay you giving me a wolflean cements my suspicions. Vague accusations without backing, multiple jokes of 'oh I know this is an excuse a wolf would make'. Add this to pure lack of contribution.
I don't like it at all."

[Lentrax]

Yeah. Makes me willing to go along with it.

Book Wombat

[Let'sGetKraken]

The level of participation here is typical of BW, and the consensus in this is a little worrisome, but I doubt a wolf partner would go against the wagon anyhow here so I can make my peace with it.

Still want that second read from Blade and Athedia, though. Who, other than BW, is most suspicious to you?

[bladescape]

Blade - other than Book, who's your biggest wolfread? I like the consensus from a survival perspective but I am worried the lack of resistance means we're going to miss again.

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Other than me, obviously.

I think this is a hit tbh. Biggest wolfread if this is a hit is BCH. If it's assuming Book town?

Probably you or Illven. Leaning Illven? You have worse interactions around previous wolves but your thought process and solving has been good. Illven has better previous interactions but the posting outside the neutral stuff is uninspiring.

Idk if I keep to that if BW flips green tho.

But either way I think it's more likely BW flips red and I yeet BCH into the sun.

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Especially with that claim tbh. I feel AV would've had a reaction if they got boosted n2. (Didn't die til n3 after all.)

And the others being boosts on people that died the night they got boosted? Nah...

I just realised I forgot Persolus. Pers might be higher sus actually if BW flips green. Gotta think on that.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I think this is a hit tbh. Biggest wolfread if this is a hit is BCH. If it's assuming Book town?

Probably you or Illven. Leaning Illven? You have worse interactions around previous wolves but your thought process and solving has been good. Illven has better previous interactions but the posting outside the neutral stuff is uninspiring.

Idk if I keep to that if BW flips green tho.

But either way I think it's more likely BW flips red and I yeet BCH into the sun.

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Especially with that claim tbh. I feel AV would've had a reaction if they got boosted n2. (Didn't die til n3 after all.)

And the others being boosts on people that died the night they got boosted? Nah...

I just realised I forgot Persolus. Pers might be higher sus actually if BW flips green. Gotta think on that.

So long as you don't flip, I consider Persolus townsiding enough that he's not worth a yeet. If you flip... well, that changes.

But thanks, appreciate your thought process too.

But yeah, that targeting history is so suspicious it almost makes me think BW is town. Not enough to move off, though.

[Athedia]

"All I can confirm is that he did not visit anyone I visited. But I haven't really heard of anyone who would be effected by a 'power boost' so it seems... unlikely."

[Let'sGetKraken]

"All I can confirm is that he did not visit anyone I visited. But I haven't really heard of anyone who would be effected by a 'power boost' so it seems... unlikely."

Well, if the lucky number moves targeting, then you would have gotten the power boost N4. Since you haven't claimed feedback, here are the options:

1) The power provides no feedback (unlikely but possible)
2) You're a wolf trying to get a misyeet
3) The lucky number only affects the dayyeet, not night targeting.

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Come to think of it, I also feel like there are powers that likely can't be boosted, so yeah, skepticism increases.

[Athedia]

Well, if the lucky number moves targeting, then you would have gotten the power boost N4. Since you haven't claimed feedback, here are the options:

1) The power provides no feedback (unlikely but possible)
2) You're a wolf trying to get a misyeet
3) The lucky number only affects the dayyeet, not night targeting.

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Come to think of it, I also feel like there are powers that likely can't be boosted, so yeah, skepticism increases.

"My power is only to observe. Nothing more."

[bladescape]

Well, if the lucky number moves targeting, then you would have gotten the power boost N4. Since you haven't claimed feedback, here are the options:

1) The power provides no feedback (unlikely but possible)
2) You're a wolf trying to get a misyeet
3) The lucky number only affects the dayyeet, not night targeting.

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Come to think of it, I also feel like there are powers that likely can't be boosted, so yeah, skepticism increases.

If it helps I am ~moderately confident that powers aren't affected by lucky number.

Caz's results + people reporting being affected by it match up too well for them to be shifted around.

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Also for the record Day Powers are 100% not affected by lucky number.

[Let'sGetKraken]

If it helps I am ~moderately confident that powers aren't affected by lucky number.

Caz's results + people reporting being affected by it match up too well for them to be shifted around.

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Also for the record Day Powers are 100% not affected by lucky number.

Okay, interesting. In which case, BW is plausible but still a good yeet.

[flat_footed]

Day 5 has ended.
Please wait for Narration.

[flat_footed]

"They're going to continue grabbing us one by one until there's no one left. And I'm not going to be next!" The final words came out as a low hiss, betraying the fear and desperation that many in the group felt. "I say we make our own choice and give them someone to focus on." Uneasy glances are shared, slowly turning to grim determination. This, at least, was something you all could have control over.

Before long, it was clear who the odd man out was. Despite the shared circumstances, there was one man whose former glory was all too obvious. Caps never seemed far from his hand, despite losing almost every bet he's made. His clothing, upon closer inspection, was obviously custom made. The dirt and grime of the Wasteland couldn't completely mask that kind of quality, though it had hid it for quite a while. Seeing flickers of malice directed at him, he held up his hands in mock surrender. "It doesn't have to be me, all I've done is try to help! I have a knack for making something great out of something good is all this is." Small beads of sweat line the man's brow, as notes of panic enter his voice. "Let me help! Please don't do this!"

Hands shoot out from the group and grab at him, shoving him hard enough to send his hapless body slamming into Yes Man. A hush falls over the group as you all freeze, some not even daring to breathe. The Securitron doesn't even look up, its head still bent towards the floor, stoic as a statue. Voices cry out in anger from the rear of the building, the noise of the scuffle drawing attention to the group. Looks of contempt stare daggers at the group as three men glare at you all, eventually resting on the lone man. Still dazed, he had one hand on his head and the other steadying himself on Yes Man's unmoving arm. With a jolt, he snatches his arm back from the machine, but the damage is done.

"Think you're being cute, huh? We'll see about that!" The man is struck another dizzying blow and he falls to the carpet with a cry of pain. Two of the thugs drag him towards the back while the third aims a kick at Yes Man before following them. "Useless hunk of junk!"

Book Wombat has been busted. He was the High Roller.

Sighs of relief break the silence as the survivors start to breathe again. They all had bought a little more time for themselves, though at a steep cost. A flicker on Yes Man's face catches a few eyes as the screen goes black and green text blinks across the screen.

Spoiler: Yes Man

Show

Night 5 has begun and will end in ~22 hours.

[Batcathat]

Hmm. So flat rolls a five at the start of day (with a d10, rather than the d8-1 of the lucky number) and then there's a "system error 5", I wonder if there's a connection? Hopefully it's only meant to screw with our heads, but I think it's possible we've switched to a different bastard mechanic.



It might be best to save discussion about it until day, but I figured I'd at least mention it.

[bladescape]

We probably only have one more miss before we have to hit.

Gonna think about this a lil bit.

[flat_footed]

Night 5 has ended.
Please wait for Narration.

[flat_footed]

The group scattered, all but fleeing from the others, not wanting to risk being the next sacrificial lamb. Safety in numbers was clearly an axiom from a kinder time.

Separated as you are, it's hard to get any sort of rest without the comfort of the group. The eerie glow of Yes Man's screen and glowing text calmly cycles throughout the night. It may have been soothing, if it weren't coming from a Securitron. If nothing else, though.. the repetitive cycle of the green characters was a comfort in itself. Something steady and unchanging to cling to; but it wasn't to last.

Spoiler: Yes Man

Show

A new routine ran across Yes Man's screen, though the hulking form had not seemed to move an inch. Whatever faults or breaks clouded its programming, it still seemed to be able to function somewhat. Drawn by the change in frequency running across the screen, the group warily reconvened around the frozen Securitron. Distrustful glances flicked around, until you realize with a start that there's one person missing. Hasty steps beat a quick search around the Casino floor and a fresh trail is found staining the carpet. Scarlet drops on the carpet catch the light, not quite yet dried. There was no struggle and it seemed like it was over quick. A small blessing amid many horrors.

MerelBlackBird has been busted. She was the Master Technician.

Day 6 has begun and will end in ~46 hours.

Living Players

1. Athedia
2. bladescape
3. Illven
4. Lentrax
5. Persolus
6. Let'sGetKraken
7. BatCatHat