WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[Athedia]

"Two. The lucky number that is. I was wrong for suspecting Merel, though I am still unsure of what she could supposedly do. Kraken, I believe you owe us a reveal."

[Batcathat]

I wonder what it means that the lucky number was rolled but not announced? Especially since last day didn't seem to have one at all.

And yeah, a claim from Kraken would be nice. Personally, I would also like to see one from Illven, maybe Lentrax, too. At this point we probably need all the information we can get.

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Just remembered that Lentrax had made a sort of part-claim, so in case anyone else had forgotten as well:

Oh. And for clarity's sake, I will reveal part of my power, because it is actually important now that I re-read the wording on it. Which may also be too much, idk...

I get one negation of a wolf power, even a kill. And since I didn't get a notification of the results of the rest of my power, that clears Cazero for me.

[bladescape]

I am pretty sure I know a wolf.

But I want to see Kraken's claim first. He's been teasing us with it this entire time.

[Athedia]

"The lucky number was announced. It was on the screen. Did you watch it all?"

[Batcathat]

"The lucky number was announced. It was on the screen. Did you watch it all?"

Ah, my bad. I was in a bit of a hurry when I read the post and thought I’d watch the gif later, but totally forgot about it. That’s one less thing to worry about, at least.

[Lentrax]

"Two. The lucky number that is. I was wrong for suspecting Merel, though I am still unsure of what she could supposedly do. Kraken, I believe you owe us a reveal."

Frankly, the “I will, oh wait, no, I won’t,” of his is making me suspicious.

So for now, with the lucky number of 2, I am voting for Lentrax to aim for Kraken.

[Let'sGetKraken]

"Two. The lucky number that is. I was wrong for suspecting Merel, though I am still unsure of what she could supposedly do. Kraken, I believe you owe us a reveal."

I am pretty sure I know a wolf.

But I want to see Kraken's claim first. He's been teasing us with it this entire time.

I want Illven to claim first (powers, not role name) - right now - then I promise I will do so, before the end of the day. I promise it's relevant.

Athedia for Illven, until they claim.

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Also, Persolus, who did you target last night? Just for posterity.

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Though the fact that Blade and Athedia are both still alive is... worrisome. Though I guess my maneuver with Persolus could have helped?

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I'll claim my role name for now, though, since I recognize I've been teasing you with my claim for three days now. I'm the Courier.

[Illven]

Alright. My power is passive. I have an extra life.

[Batcathat]

Alright. My power is passive. I have an extra life.

What is the name of your role?

[Let'sGetKraken]

Alright. My power is passive. I have an extra life.

Had an extra life, to be clear.

I'm the vig. I shot AV N3 and Illven N5.

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You can see why I wanted Illven to claim, I was hoping to catch a wolf in a lie. And why I wanted to wait to claim until after I shot last night.

[Batcathat]

Hmm. As much as I'd hate to have been wrong about Kraken, I do like his claim better. Someone had to kill AV, after all, and falsely taking credit for it seems like a very short-sighted move.

Also, if there is a fourth wolf, I'm leaning towards Lentrax and I have some slight reasons to think Lentrax and Illven are a more likely pair than Lentrax and Kraken. So I suppose I'm going with Atheidia (Illven).

[Illven]

Kraken is lying. I still have both my lives.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Kraken is lying. I still have both my lives.

Well. Other option is that Persolus redirected me to Merel, and wolves inexplicably shot Lentrax, but in the absence of someone claiming roleblocking me, I think we have found our third wolf.

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For the record, I confirmed with Flat that my night action targeting Illven was recorded.

Why would I ask Illven to claim before revealing if I hadn't shot them? Who killed AV, if I am lying?

Also, people need to stop giving me vig. It is very stressful.

[Lentrax]

I can safely say that, as I am alive and have no spare lives, I have not been shot.

[Batcathat]

Who killed AV, if I am lying?

Yeah, this is what seems most convincing to me. Considering potential target randomization and other unknown powers, it's possible that you shooting Illven and Illven not losing a life are both true, but there's not really a lot of other explanations for AV's flip (and even if there is another explanation, it'd mean you're taking credit for something you don't know how it happened, which is my paranoia about blade not really hijacking the vote all over again).

I suppose there are scenarios where neither you nor Illven are wolves, though they seem less likely.

[Illven]

Alright. Yeet me then. I'm not a wolf, and still have both my lives.

[Athedia]

"The Courier having a big power makes no sense.
If anything they would have the double life power since everyone knows Benny buried the Courier in a shallow grave after shooting them. It is literally the introduction!"

The dealer was looking out at a blank wall away from the action looking rather annoyed at some unseen narrator who given the animosity in her voice seems to have been recently taunting her over some perceived habit."

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"Vig power. Sorry I struggle with v's."

[bladescape]

@Lentrax

If a wolf tries to kill you at night, would you be informed your 1-time immunity was used?

That's what Kraken is suggesting happened.

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I don't believe that vig claim at all tbh.

Thematic off point + Wolves have been the team to have unique people as names and town has had "members of" instead.

Plus like shooting AV and then Illven is...

Not the shots I'd expect tbh.

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So full disclosure.

I thought the Merel kill was full indication of Ath being mafia who:
1. Doesn't yet have that much reason to buy into the "get rid of bladescape before he solves you" mindset a lot of players in the community
2. Has had me as one of their most ardent defenders since earlygame.

Basically a bus/bus day to get one of them out of the pit that I've been giving a free ride.

But the way these posts have flown out it'd mean Kraken is town and that claim I just dissed on is legit.

(Unless Ath is wolf going for the sacred double bus play.)

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I am tempted to take up yeeting Illven for science tho

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Going back to Merel's death. The kill on them is weird no matter how I slice it. People were already doubting my townread on em.

The reasons I can think of for killing them over Ath (if town) or BCH (if town) or me is purely "remove people that blindly follow blade while leaving enough relatively townread people so endgame we don't ask why $wolf is alive."

Which implies a wolf is well townread.

[Let'sGetKraken]

The level of participation here is typical of BW, and the consensus in this is a little worrisome, but I doubt a wolf partner would go against the wagon anyhow here so I can make my peace with it.

Still want that second read from Blade and Athedia, though. Who, other than BW, is most suspicious to you?

I think this is a hit tbh. Biggest wolfread if this is a hit is BCH. If it's assuming Book town?

Probably you or Illven. Leaning Illven? You have worse interactions around previous wolves but your thought process and solving has been good. Illven has better previous interactions but the posting outside the neutral stuff is uninspiring.

Idk if I keep to that if BW flips green tho.

But either way I think it's more likely BW flips red and I yeet BCH into the sun.

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Especially with that claim tbh. I feel AV would've had a reaction if they got boosted n2. (Didn't die til n3 after all.)

And the others being boosts on people that died the night they got boosted? Nah...

I just realised I forgot Persolus. Pers might be higher sus actually if BW flips green. Gotta think on that.

I don't love Blade throwing shade on my Illven kill after I asked what I thought were trusted town for wolfreads, and I shot one of the two Blade provided (myself being the other). Like, that looks sketchy to other people too, right?

My alignment? I hate to shoot down whatever theory you have here, but I am Town. Sorry.

Oh hey, if only I had left a hint to my powers back on D3 for some reason (I also thought that Flat was being a bastard and I might share the "Vig" alignment with others, but I thought this was a bit cheeky).

My fluff is that I was left with a bullet to the head in a delivery gone wrong, and am back for vengeance but don't know who to trust.

Also, if I'm not a Vig, who killed AV (who I killed because she wanted to die - either she was being sincere and I was helpful, or she had a sinister reason for wanting to be yeeted and I wanted her gone).

[bladescape]

Also the claimed kill on AV doesn't mean much to me tbh. I'd say judge it outside that. Very easily could have been one of the other people who have died. Maybe Cuth had a kill and AV killed Cuth in revenge?

No role flips means there's a lot of info that's blind and uncounterclaimed "this is mine" when done so late after it was is... not reliable in the slightest.

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That was amusingly timed.

I also take back my comments about the Illven shot. Honestly didn't think about someone trying to follow my sus because I was masking a "Athedia wolf" sus in the back of my head but didn't want to reveal it before today phase.

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Rereading my confidence on BW being a hit makes me cringe ngl

[Batcathat]

Also the claimed kill on AV doesn't mean much to me tbh. I'd say judge it outside that. Very easily could have been one of the other people who have died. Maybe Cuth had a kill and AV killed Cuth in revenge?

It's possible, though presumably the wolves wouldn't know more about what happened than anyone else, so claiming credit for killing AV would risk someone still alive counter-claiming. So while we shouldn't rule out the possibility, I do think AV's death is at least a few points in Kraken's favour.

[bladescape]

It's possible, though presumably the wolves wouldn't know more about what happened than anyone else, so claiming credit for killing AV would risk someone still alive counter-claiming. So while we shouldn't rule out the possibility, I do think AV's death is at least a few points in Kraken's favour.

Tbh I've found some other points in Kraken's favour. That includes the soft. The soft + fluff feel nice tbh.

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For the record I think AV had a role she didn't care for and was wilding.

She was never telling the truth about her post mortem abilities.

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So what prevented you shooting any other phase @Kraken?

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I know there's been discussion about not using vig but subtly getting town's backup suspicions and clearing the poe faster is better for town in the right situation.

But maybe this is just me.

[Athedia]

"The bullet in the brain pans out for Courier actually."

The dealer smirked at her pun.

"I didn't realize you still suspected me Blade. Honestly I was expecting you to be targeted. That is why I watched you last night. But no visitors. But can someone else explain again why Blade isn't a wolf? Not sure I ever fully got that and tbh I was kinda riding high on sussing out Jeen.'

[Illven]

Until the missing kill is explained to me.

Lentrax for Kraken

[Lentrax]

@Lentrax

If a wolf tries to kill you at night, would you be informed your 1-time immunity was used?

That's what Kraken is suggesting happened.

"You know. Years ago, I met this guy. A wanderer through the various wastelands of America. Great guy, as far as guys in power armor go. Never gave me a name, just called himself the Storyteller. Told me about all sorts of things he knew from before the War. One of them was a thing called a meme. Didn't understand half of it. But one of them stuck, and I think it applies here."

I take a moment to get the words right. "I believe it goes: "If it happened, I wouldn't tell people, but there would be signs.""

[Let'sGetKraken]

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So what prevented you shooting any other phase @Kraken?

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I know there's been discussion about not using vig but subtly getting town's backup suspicions and clearing the poe faster is better for town in the right situation.

But maybe this is just me.

Two things. First, a hasty vig can absolutely throw the game for town - for instance, my list of early suspicions included zero wolves, which would have been bad. Better to fire when there are greater odds I'll hit a wolf and not burn town we can't necessarily afford to lose.

Second, the lucky number and this being a bastard game. N4 I didn't fire because there weren't really any shots I could have taken that would have hit two people I was reasonably suspicious of, without knowing for sure whether the kill was shifted by 5.

@Lentrax

If a wolf tries to kill you at night, would you be informed your 1-time immunity was used?

That's what Kraken is suggesting happened.

To be clear, even with the odd monologue, I don't think this is what happened - I just think that, other than the possibility of me being roleblocked, this is the only other even slightly plausible scenario in which only one person, Merel, dies.

I really want to know what Persolus supposedly did.

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And since I never responded: mostly what Cao mentioned.

And just in case - no, I'm not a dayvig two games in a row. It wasn't me. It just felt more wolfy than towny so I thought it wouldn't be bad to speculate on.

Also, this was me being cheeky D1 - I wasn't a dayvig. I'm not sure that'll move the needle but I've had a few cheeky subtle hints throughout the game.

[Batcathat]

To be clear, even with the odd monologue, I don't think this is what happened - I just think that, other than the possibility of me being roleblocked, this is the only other even slightly plausible scenario in which only one person, Merel, dies.

Yeah, about that...

So, I've been going back and forth on whether or not to reveal this. I'm still a little unsure, since I think we're already on the right track and this could potentially muddy the waters and/or help the wolves, but at this point in the game I also don't want to sit on information that might be important to town. I targeted Kraken with a void last night, so it's possible both he and Illven are telling the truth.

Best case scenario, Illven's a wolf who claimed an extra life as a convenient fake claim but who'll actually flip right away, but her actually having two lives as either a wolf or a townie is obviously also possible.

[bladescape]

Yeah, about that...

So, I've been going back and forth on whether or not to reveal this. I'm still a little unsure, since I think we're already on the right track and this could potentially muddy the waters and/or help the wolves, but at this point in the game I also don't want to sit on information that might be important to town. I targeted Kraken with a void last night, so it's possible both he and Illven are telling the truth.

Best case scenario, Illven's a wolf who claimed an extra life as a convenient fake claim but who'll actually flip right away, but her actually having two lives as either a wolf or a townie is obviously also possible.

Who have you blocked in the past?

[bladescape]

On that note now I'm thinking clearly:

Ath - Who did you target in previous nights to what result?

Persolus - Who did you target last night?

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Given time is running out I decided to out us despite going through the whole stupid charade earlier.

Lentrax and I are lovers. We have a few oneshot powers, two of which you guys know of already. I won't say what else we got up our sleeve.

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And yes you may now cringe at the charade earlier I give you permission.

(Lentrax can confirm whenever they're on.)

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(Bonus cookies for anyone who noticed how I managed to avoid ever talking about Lentrax all game really.)

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I don't like how Ath has been fine with me and then suddenly is trying to turn on me the moment I sus her, that screams wolf who had me in a pocket.

I... dunno what to make of the claims pile but I think there's max 1 wolf in there. I have other thoughts but wan't action claims before I say em.

Given I only think one wolf in the action claims I do think there's 1 wolf in Ath/Pers.

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Also for anyone seeing Ath's post and asking...

Why would I kill Merel who has basically been a sheep for me? And wasn't cleared anyway? That's shooting myself in the foot tbh. Kraken/Illven/BCH who have not always agreed with me would be a better pool if I was wolf and wanted to shoot someone not me/Ath so we stick around.

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Also part of my sus comes directly from the fact that Ath hasn't done a whole lot since helping with Jeen. They've sort of just limped along with everything while it's been happening.

[Illven]

I ask because it's a bastard game, Blade you got confirmation of Len's alignment?