WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[bladescape]

I ask because it's a bastard game, Blade you got confirmation of Len's alignment?

I had to go check to make sure but yes.

[Athedia]

"I've been 'limping' a long because frankly I have been tired and I am suspicious of you because I have been in the past, I kept asking why you were cleared and never really got a satisfying answer. As I said multiple times I have gotten no actual results from my power and I don't know if it actually works or if it is just a giant troll to make me feel insane. I have been trying to guess who I would go after as a wolf and watch them... But apparently they never target those people and none of you folks do either. I don't believe you and Lentrax are lovers or... I think it is a very convenient cover for two wolves. I mean only two left correct, might as well be. Give your role names."

[Batcathat]

Who have you blocked in the past?

Alright, I suppose I might as well share that, as it's looking unlikely that I'll catch someone in a lie at this point (especially with my power known) and maybe it'll fit together with something someone else knows.

N1: Kraken
N2: Jeen
N3: Persolus
N4: Lentrax
N5: Kraken

I don't believe you and Lentrax are lovers or... I think it is a very convenient cover for two wolves. I mean only two left correct, might as well be. Give your role names."

The eternally paranoid part of my brain had the same thought. As for the rest of my brain... I don't know. Neither blade nor Lentrax were very likely wagons today, so the remaining wolves tying themselves together like that, when they could probably just hang back while either Illven or Kraken dies, seems odd. Of course, blade does have a taste for daring plans, so not impossible.

At the very least, I would also like to see some role names. Illven's too, for that matter, I don't think she've claimed one?

- - - Updated - - -

As a heads up, I'm out of town until Friday and will probably be pretty busy during that time. I should be able to post pretty regularly, but my activity is likely to drop somewhat.

[Illven]

My role name is ghoul.

[Batcathat]

I was hoping there would be more to go on to make up my mind, but it is what it is and I'm about to fall asleep (how come travelling is so exhausting despite me spending most of it sitting still? ) so I suppose I'll leave my vote where it is and hope for the best.

[Athedia]

My role name is ghoul.

"This checks out. I will resolve the current game of blackjack soon. But everyone who hasn't given role names and powers please give them now. We are past the point of worrying about role guessers."

[bladescape]

"I've been 'limping' a long because frankly I have been tired and I am suspicious of you because I have been in the past, I kept asking why you were cleared and never really got a satisfying answer. As I said multiple times I have gotten no actual results from my power and I don't know if it actually works or if it is just a giant troll to make me feel insane. I have been trying to guess who I would go after as a wolf and watch them... But apparently they never target those people and none of you folks do either. I don't believe you and Lentrax are lovers or... I think it is a very convenient cover for two wolves. I mean only two left correct, might as well be. Give your role names."

Note how Athedia claims no results but doesn't give names so as to not possibly give away to being called out on incorrect results.

My role is The Femme Fatale, Lentrax is The Private Investigator.


Now. Let's play "What if I was wolf with Lentrax" shall we?

So in a day where neither Lentrax or I are really on the chopping block, I claim lovers which would expose either one of us if the other dies? (Which would be a terrible idea btw because if you have two disconnected wolves one can die and the other can go to F3 and win, but lovers claim removes that entirely.) Not only that but I have killed Merel (Who has been happily sheeping my every move and was sure I was town by the end of it.)

LetsGetKraken Athedia

I'm gonna call you out on the "questioning why Bladescape is town" thing. You made one comment about not being sure where the "blade used a power" thing came from. You shaded me for agreeing with Merel's take on Illven town. (Which I'm now thinking about again because Merel died.)

Outside that? You happily went along with everything I was asking. You NEVER suggested it was wrong that I was cleared until last phase, and that was just "Why is he cleared again?"

"Kept asking why I was cleared" is also a non-starter because you only began mentioning it last phase too. And you also held back from ANY hard sus of me or suggestion that you actually thought I was sus (Outside of "interesting" being used to describe a post of mine, which as an old friend of mine would say, is a "Wolfy interesting".)

So, what's changed this phase? Wait...

You didn't even say I was sus earlier in the phase.

It just happened to show up after I said Ath is sus.

Convenient aye?

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I must say, though. Well played. You had already lost Murska to random chance. You had both yourself and Jeen under heavy fire. It's a good shot to take to have you two go against each other and one comes out looking good. I honestly didn't read it as a bus either, so that was a+ performance.

The problem is that once wolves are in a relatively safe position, the chance to let down the mask and breath and not "hunt" for wolves is way too tempting. You can just focus on some weird mech niggles and let the big townies hunting walk around and vote villagers out while you relax on your throne of luxury. But townies who have successfully hunted a wolf tend to feel more engaged and want to hunt the next one.

And honestly I should've seen you were just resting on your blackjack game and your sniped comments while sheeping my wagons for the last few phases. I should've.

But I didn't. So I gotta give you that. You pulled that wool over my eyes pretty well.

[Batcathat]

If either Athedia or blade is a wolf, I'm leaning towards Athedia since I feel like her behavior make more sense from a wolf than blade's (of course, says the paranoid voice in my brain, that's why a wolf might intentionally act in a way that doesn't make sense).

What worries me a bit is that alternative that both of them are townies getting paranoid about each other (in which case the wolves would be Illven and Persolus, I think).

[Let'sGetKraken]

Note how Athedia claims no results but doesn't give names so as to not possibly give away to being called out on incorrect results.

My role is The Femme Fatale, Lentrax is The Private Investigator.


Now. Let's play "What if I was wolf with Lentrax" shall we?

So in a day where neither Lentrax or I are really on the chopping block, I claim lovers which would expose either one of us if the other dies? (Which would be a terrible idea btw because if you have two disconnected wolves one can die and the other can go to F3 and win, but lovers claim removes that entirely.) Not only that but I have killed Merel (Who has been happily sheeping my every move and was sure I was town by the end of it.)

LetsGetKraken Athedia

I'm gonna call you out on the "questioning why Bladescape is town" thing. You made one comment about not being sure where the "blade used a power" thing came from. You shaded me for agreeing with Merel's take on Illven town. (Which I'm now thinking about again because Merel died.)

Outside that? You happily went along with everything I was asking. You NEVER suggested it was wrong that I was cleared until last phase, and that was just "Why is he cleared again?"

"Kept asking why I was cleared" is also a non-starter because you only began mentioning it last phase too. And you also held back from ANY hard sus of me or suggestion that you actually thought I was sus (Outside of "interesting" being used to describe a post of mine, which as an old friend of mine would say, is a "Wolfy interesting".)

So, what's changed this phase? Wait...

You didn't even say I was sus earlier in the phase.

It just happened to show up after I said Ath is sus.

Convenient aye?

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I must say, though. Well played. You had already lost Murska to random chance. You had both yourself and Jeen under heavy fire. It's a good shot to take to have you two go against each other and one comes out looking good. I honestly didn't read it as a bus either, so that was a+ performance.

The problem is that once wolves are in a relatively safe position, the chance to let down the mask and breath and not "hunt" for wolves is way too tempting. You can just focus on some weird mech niggles and let the big townies hunting walk around and vote villagers out while you relax on your throne of luxury. But townies who have successfully hunted a wolf tend to feel more engaged and want to hunt the next one.

And honestly I should've seen you were just resting on your blackjack game and your sniped comments while sheeping my wagons for the last few phases. I should've.

But I didn't. So I gotta give you that. You pulled that wool over my eyes pretty well.

If not for the fact that Blade is now inextricably linked with Lentrax (though hey, small chance it could be five wolves or a wolf/town lover team), this is exactly the kind of big dramatic post that Blade would love doing as a late-game wolf bus.

My perspective is that there are three likely wolf teams at this point - Blade/Lentrax, Athedia/Illven or Persolus, and BatCatHat/Illven. If BCH is a wolf and Illven isn't, why claim? Why not let Illven get yeeted, flip town, and then push for a misyeet on me?

Note that it is possible that Illven is a wolf - ghoul is not exactly the most townish name, after all - without BCH being a wolf, but if BCH is a wolf I think Illven is his partner. Illven/Persolus or Illven/Athedia are also possible teams.

I believe Persolus is neutral, simply by virtue of no one else claiming it yet. It's possible to only have one neutral, but it's believable enough.

Part of me is tempted to vote BCH off here, because as a wolf voider he can ensure that if we miss here, I can't fire again. Especially since town already demonstrably had a voider in Cazero. But I suppose Athedia isn't the worst.

On rereading the Illven thing, I think her calling me out is... hm. On one hand, it seems like a great way to push for me to be yeeted. On the other, I feel like if she was on a wolf team with BCH, she could have pretended to have lost that life and pocketed me a bit? Hm.

Or maybe BCH isn't a voider at all, and Illven did lose a life. Hmmmm.

Unless there are five wolves, Blade and Athedia cannot both be wolves in this scenario. My worry is that if we yeet Athedia and BCH is a wolf, we lose on the spot. Same if persolus is a wolf too, honestly. Thoughts?

[bladescape]

Eh...

I don't like the idea of voting out BCH on that alone but I do understand the thought.

I'll have a look to see if I might be wrong on Ath and there might be another later but...

The game just makes so much more sense if Ath is a wolf who has had me in the pocket since D3 and is holding onto me while removing my support structures?

BCH as wolf would be removing my support structures while keeping both Ath and me alive so he never becomes the "most clear" (You can get away with it but most wolves tend to hard avoid being the most clear because then they have to worry about "why didn't you die?" questions.)

And I do remember the attempted Cred-grab after Jeen's flip.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Eh it's midnight I'll think about this after sleep.

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Tho, is there a reason you didn't consider Illven/Persolus team, Kraken?

[Athedia]

Note how Athedia claims no results but doesn't give names so as to not possibly give away to being called out on incorrect results.

My role is The Femme Fatale, Lentrax is The Private Investigator.


Now. Let's play "What if I was wolf with Lentrax" shall we?

So in a day where neither Lentrax or I are really on the chopping block, I claim lovers which would expose either one of us if the other dies? (Which would be a terrible idea btw because if you have two disconnected wolves one can die and the other can go to F3 and win, but lovers claim removes that entirely.) Not only that but I have killed Merel (Who has been happily sheeping my every move and was sure I was town by the end of it.)

LetsGetKraken Athedia

I'm gonna call you out on the "questioning why Bladescape is town" thing. You made one comment about not being sure where the "blade used a power" thing came from. You shaded me for agreeing with Merel's take on Illven town. (Which I'm now thinking about again because Merel died.)

Outside that? You happily went along with everything I was asking. You NEVER suggested it was wrong that I was cleared until last phase, and that was just "Why is he cleared again?"

"Kept asking why I was cleared" is also a non-starter because you only began mentioning it last phase too. And you also held back from ANY hard sus of me or suggestion that you actually thought I was sus (Outside of "interesting" being used to describe a post of mine, which as an old friend of mine would say, is a "Wolfy interesting".)

So, what's changed this phase? Wait...

You didn't even say I was sus earlier in the phase.

It just happened to show up after I said Ath is sus.

Convenient aye?

- - - Updated - - -

I must say, though. Well played. You had already lost Murska to random chance. You had both yourself and Jeen under heavy fire. It's a good shot to take to have you two go against each other and one comes out looking good. I honestly didn't read it as a bus either, so that was a+ performance.

The problem is that once wolves are in a relatively safe position, the chance to let down the mask and breath and not "hunt" for wolves is way too tempting. You can just focus on some weird mech niggles and let the big townies hunting walk around and vote villagers out while you relax on your throne of luxury. But townies who have successfully hunted a wolf tend to feel more engaged and want to hunt the next one.

And honestly I should've seen you were just resting on your blackjack game and your sniped comments while sheeping my wagons for the last few phases. I should've.

But I didn't. So I gotta give you that. You pulled that wool over my eyes pretty well.

"I was on my phone and then the forums weren't working for me. Look how you still have not answered my question about what exactly cleared you. Because I still don't know."

"And no, I asked it after Jeen, when people kept saying Blade and Athedia were cleared and I was a little miffed because I had put the work in but you had ridden on some claim of manipulating the count by adding votes, something Flat admitted was a mistake.


But here, and reminder I don't do anything when I visit except observe. Night one, watch CaoimhinTheCape, I figured they role revealed so would be the most obvious to kill. No visitors. Night two, watch BCH, no visitors. Night Three, watch Cazero no results. Night Four, Watch Kraken, no visitors. Night Five, Watch Blade, No vistors. Toward those last two Flat_Footed was taunting me that at least I am consistent and that I have a habit of staring at loners. Hence the rather annoyed meta commentary.

I sheeped nothing. The blackjack game was because it fit my role. I am the Blackjack Dealer. I thought it would be a cute and fun gimmick that might let me live a little longer, because people wanted to play."

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"Also Femme Fatale and Private Investigator make no sense for Fallout New Vegas. They don't fit the themes of the game or gambling at all."

[bladescape]

I went back and checked your posts when the Jeen kill flipped and I didn't see it.

[Lentrax]

Someone who thinks that the roles do not fit in with Fallout forget the investigator who died in the Ultra-Luxe during the search for Ted Gunderson.

And also the entire story of the Nick Valentine that was downloaded into the Synth that became the private investigator in Diamond City.

Not that that matters to you, right?

Anyway.

Vote change. LetsGetKraken Athedia

[bladescape]

Spoiler: Night 3

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"Well I must have the Black Widow Perk because I made him regret $%^@ing with me."

She looked around for some applause at her very referential joke but instead received crickets and the soft whump of her sign as it tipped over.

"Well I thought it was a good joke."



"Ah corncobweb! I may have pissed off some wolves who I was completely correct about acting oh so very sloppy. Shall I deal you in?"



"Your feeling? Do my pages of painstakingly arguing mean nothing! But thank you for the translation."

She looked around at the semi destroyed casino, before reaching over and righting her sign.

"Cazero, if your role is indeed a jailer. You have the chance tonight to jail me. I will say that I strongly do believe you to be the wolf and if I die to wolves tonight am noting this now in the hopes that you are executed tomorrow. However with some proof of your abilities, I could advocate for you tomorrow."

"On a further note. Our two wolves so far appear to have proper names. I had discounted this theory due to the Drifter, but that is a title not a name and the Drifter is a friendly fellow. Mr. House and Benny are not. It does make me wonder if we have a Caesar, a Ulysses, Father Elijah, Lanius. Though we have had a disappointing lack of brain stealing aliens or rocket ships filled with ghouls. I do love rocket ships."

"My pleasure." She smiled a deep genuine smile at one of her most consistent patrons.



"God damn it. The tricky bastard."

"Okay that is fair. I haven't been jailed in the past so I only know how it works through movies. Other suspects include Kraken, for the way the first vote went and Illven. I really hope it isn't Illven."

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"Okay that is fair. I haven't been jailed in the past so I only know how it works through movies. Other suspects include Kraken, for the way the first vote went and Illven. I really hope it isn't Illven. But I guess we just have to watch for tonights death."

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"Okay that is fair. I haven't been jailed in the past so I only know how it works through movies. Other suspects include Kraken, for the way the first vote went and Illven. I really hope it isn't Illven. But I guess we just have to watch for tonights death."

Spoiler: Day 4 + Night 4

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"Oh and he is gone again. Will someone take over his hand? Also I will say I will for now at least consider Cazero town. His claim checked out. I believe CCW was only back temporarily, a final hurrah. We should use the information he got us well. Now I am okay following the thought of voting for Illven to remove Let'sGetKraken, for now at least. My thoughts may change. I would also like Lady Serpentine to speak for a bit. Give us your thoughts and your takes. We haven't even really seen many votes."

"I could be convinced to vote for Illven if you play our dearly departed friends hand for him."

"Dealing you in. Lady Serpentine has been quieter and I do feel bad about doing this to Illven while she is celebrating. But then again... hard for us to celebrate until we know which side of the coin we have landed on. Also, just so you know I believe Cazero as well. I got no results last night. Means my power didn't work."

With this she flipped cards in front of the three players and herself.

🃝🃏

Spoiler: Persolus

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🃔🃗

Spoiler: MerelBlackbird

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🃈🃓

Spoiler: Let'sGetKraken

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🃖🂭

"And the blackjack, while powerless hasn't been completely useless. Seeing peoples suspicions, who is willing to engage. It has even brought some reluctant folks into more engagement."

"Sell me on Lady Serpentine. I am not opposed, but I would like the sell. I agree regarding Merel. She seems, very excited."

"I will switch to Lentrax with an aim at Lady Serpentine. Now that is decided please finish up the hand."

"My pleasure."

She flipped a card in front of Kraken, letting it slide into place next to its siblings.

Spoiler: Let'sGetKraken

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🃖🂭🂴

"I didn't super suspect Lady Serpentine, but I couldn't rule her out either. Book Wombat, Persolus and Merel are also in that category for their information. If we are all powered, day or night powers?"

"Who says I don't suspect him still. Jury still out on that one."



"Hmm that does put us in a tricky position, since that would be a potential role that a wolf would hide behind." She flipped a card in front of Persolus.

Spoiler: Persolus

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🃔🃗🂡

"But suppose you aren't lying, does your role involve visiting anyone? Observing? Betting on who dies?"

"Chaos does not give me confidence on your trustworthiness. Does it act on another player, set of players, or something else along those lines."

She slid another card to Persolus as she questioned him.

Spoiler: Persolus

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🃔🃗🂡🃇

"Caz on Night 3? Caz who did you target Night 3 then? The answer might vastly change a my reads on some people."

"Yet you targeted Caz. Did you really Persolus?"

"Me. It's a harmless power, but if Caz was randomized, I should have been as well no?"

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"Now, random events do happen. Despite what people may think, the blackjack game is completely fair and the time I dealt myself blackjack it wasn't staged. But I acknowledge you might not believe that. So, pardon my skepticism on that the night you targeted Caz, a night I had already said that if I was not jailed I would be suspecting Caz, it just happened to land back on me. You are saying Caz got extremely lucky there and you purposefully tried to make him look like a wolf to me. Do you understand how this looks very bad for you?"

"Lentrax recieved the phrase 'No results' which I also received. It is specifically different than the phrase that happens if I get nothing from my power, which I am not sharing at the moment."

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"Actually wait, did you receive no results or just did not receive a result. I may have misread this."

"It hasn't successfully worked yet, as I apparently target the wrong people but I get a No _____ instead of a No Results if it works." The sound of static covered part of Athedia's speech.

- - - Updated - - -

"Also I thought you power couldn't effect you?"

Strangely enough you have no comment about my towniness in any post here. For the entire 3 phases after the flip.

Again. Last day phase was the first time you mentioned it.

Also the whole "Miffed because I put the effort in" thing kinda reads like a wolf who bussed and isn't getting cred for it. Forgive me harping on this tune.

[Athedia]

Spoiler: Trying to find the post I swear exists

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Athedia grumbled as she set up her table.
"I may be a humble blackjack dealer but at the same time, something is seriously affoot. We got lucky the first time. Yesterday Blade voted for himself and then thought to make a little joke that he might be voting himself off. Odd. But some do turn to humor in stressful situations."

As for townreads, I would say I trust Athedia, blade and BW in descending order (while it's possible that a wolf voted Jeen, I think there are enough other reasons to trust at least Athedia and blade and if BW was bussing, he did so in a pretty weird way). It's tempting to trust CCW, but I think I agree with blade on the matter. I'm leaning towards trusting AV's claim, but... well, it's AV. Assuming they're honest, it does seem like having AV in the deadchat could be useful, especially towards the end of the game, but I'm still hesitant to "waste" a day on it.

I feel like I have previously - I thought Athedia was a wolf, something is pinging me about both your and BCH's play, and we almost certainly have a wolf hiding in the less active players.

[*]Athedia - a lot of posts and high-quality entertainment and investment, but not a lot of substance until D3. Relatively cleared by the thing with JeenLean. Did poke Ti in #104, which unpairs them a bit, while talking about people not analyzing, which is helpful if a teensy bit hypocritical. Gets points for making the connection to player order in #152. Voted me D2. Started the wagon on Cazero (suggesting Jeen was also, correctly, sus). Pretty confidently thinks that Jeen, Murska, and Cazero are wolves in #253. Claimed not to like the blade or BW wagons. Starts aggressivey fishing for role names in #256, which made me really think that she was non-town at the time. Chooses to vote Jeen in response to BCH, but this is consistent with earlier posts. Agreed to reveal title if four more people did, which again, made me think this was a mechanical thing. Claims no killing ability, no benefit for knowing roles, no alt win condition, not related to blackjack. Points out that Cazero accused her after she started the Jeen wagon... but Jeen was already throwing suspicion if not voting this way. Throws shade at Illven in #278, which I honestly agree with. Suspects me and Illven N3. Votes me D4 and suggest Lady Ti participate more. [*]bladescape - has been consistently voting me since post #54, but I've also been getting gut pings from the relative lack of poking. I still really don't like post #69, which is where I think a lot of my distrust stems from - in a bastard game where it is stated to be rigged from the start, suspecting the narrator who was busted in-thread doesn't seem like it deserves this level of scorn. Though the logic in #76 checks out. Voted me D2, agreed caz was town, and then immediately moved off me to BCH after some wise introspection. Correctly identified that Jeen's vote on him was iffy. Threw a bit of sus onto BCH in 214. Ended up voting for self-preservation (not sure who TBH, was blade Jeen? Too tired to check). Claimed he wouldn't have run into a vet in post #249, but like... he wouldn't have had to carry the kill? I don't like this. Voted Jeen in #291, thinks Athedia and Caz are both town. Claimed the hijack in #331 as one-time thing, which I believe for balance reasons. Blade heavily suspects me in #343, which is fair, instead of reading my post as a compliment to his ruthlessness, and then votes me D4 as part of the growing wagon. [*]MerelBlackbird - came in late very enthusiastically, which drew some shade from Illven. Would recommend rereading post #94, has a bunch. Townread Jeen but with reservations, same with Illven (with a bit more waffling), unabled to read blade (I know the feeling). Thought Jeen/me weren't W/W - which she's moved off of, interestingly. Semi-confidently townread AV, Jeen, CCW, Blade, me, and Illven. No vote D1. Started off voting Blade D2, joining the bandwagon as vote #3. Shows up D3 to vote Athedia, which is NOT a good look when Jeen is the alternate wagon. Suggests we yeet Cazero N3. Joins my wagon anyhow D4, likely seeing there's no appetite for Cazero, making no mention of the "we yeet Cazero tomorrow, right?" [*]AvatarVecna [/S]- claimed townsiding neutral, actively wanted to die D3 and self-voted. Died N3 along with CCB and Cuthalion. [*]Illven - JeenLeen tried to suggest that Illven and I were scumbuddies early. She gets towncred for that alone, though god knows wolves have sussed partners before. Posted filler multiple times, including a pretty meaningless read of Merel in post #67. Voted Cazero D1, which was bandwagoning for pressure. Pressure-voted Bookwombat start of D2. Pops back into existence start of D3 to vote Lentrax as a placeholder, cast sus on Athedia, waffled on Cazero. Stated D3 that they would yeet AV if they backed off the supposed vig-claim. Slight town points for pointing out that people don't give out role names. Asks me for alignment in response to AV being a town-aligned neutral, which makes me think that she thinks I'm a corresponding wolf-aligned neutral. Which I am not. [*]Lentrax - only 11 posts, a lot of them fluff early on, but their first game of WW overall. Suggested no votes D2 to go with Vault 11, which feels NAI. Confirmed that there was no notification for being jailed.

Other notes:

• Bastardry aside, we are in a much better position here than I thought. Four dead town and two dead wolves is a very solid ratio. I thought we'd lost one more town for whatever reason.
• Hilariously, post #65 of people I wanted to fixate on contains zero wolves if Cazero is in fact town. Oops. Maybe I'll be a little less smug after the game ends.
• Blade is absolutely ruthless enough to kill a fellow wolf to get perpetual towncred.... but still. I only see this with W/W wagons.
• Don't worry Athedia, if we're talking about flairs for the dramatic you're in good company.
• There is likely a wolf-aligned neutral, if AV is telling the truth.
• Breakdown of Jeen's post in #294 - suggests that if Athedia is a wolf, him and Cazero are clear. Could be setting up wolf/wolf or the Caz flip the next day. Suggests that if we test Cazero, and if he flips wolf, yeet himself; if he's town, yeet Athedia. This suggests that Cazero is not a wolf, and that Athedia is likely not a wolf, since Jeen knows that Cazero isn't a wolf and consequently would not suggest that Athedia should be the next yeet when this is revealed. Suggests that a seer clear him if Athedia flips town, which makes me think that this is pre-emptive defensiveness.
• Blade is being exceptionally cheeky in #321, given that he claimed credit for hijacking the vote shortly thereafter.
• It's unlikely that Merel pairs herself with two wolves in post #94, so I think Illven/Merel is unlikely as W/W.
• Blade is only really a wolf if Athedia is a wolf. I do not suggest testing this, but it means if anyone else flips wolf, the chances that Blade is a wolf decreases from like, 3% to practically zero.

Questions for people:

• BCH - why do you think BW got credit for Jeen flipping wolf?
• Blade - why do you think BCH is town and not a bussing wolf?

Reads, from most to least town:

Cazero - pretty unambiguously town, based on how Jeen reacted and because why on earth would a wolf jail themself N1?
Blade - responsible for saving Athedia D3, and killing Jeen. This gives massive town points - the only circumstances in which this happens is if the remaining wolves are Athedia/Blade and that whole spat was designed to give Athedia and Blade towncred... which is possible but inlikely.
Athedia - the whole business with Jeen, especially post #294.
BatCatHat - Of the top four townreads, I think this is the one I'd want to vote the most. Pretty heavily paired with Cazero. The Jeen voting earns a lot of goodwill but there's enough gray in there that if we have to vote a more-active player, it would be him. I still don't like #306.
BookWombat - only reason he isn't lower is the Jeen vote, and that could be bussing. Not really much to go off of.
Lentrax - nothing of substance - I want reads and would not shed tears for a yeet here.
Persolus - gets a bit of townpoints D1 for Jeen trying to start a pivot-off wagon on him D1. I still don't like that scumbuddies joke. Need more participation from him.
Lady Sepentine - three posts is basically nothing to go off of. Voted Jeen, but notable not when it actually mattered.

Merel - both her votes on D2 and D3 have been bandwagoning, and on D3 it was against a now-confirmed wolf. I voted that way too, but I would need to see more from her - especially with the suggestion we test Cazero today, which she has conveniently dropped today. Blade seems to trust her, and I don't think Blade/Merel/Athedia is possible, which makes me think they are unpaired.
Illven - D1 Jeen with her could be distancing, especially since Murska did the opposite (gently). Bandwagoned for pressure D1 and stayed on BW D2 (correct me if I am wrong). D3, I think she stayed on Lentrax D3, right? There is absolutely nothing here that is a good look for Illven other than some very halfhearted shade on her from Jeen D1, which was also thrown on me, while there is a LOT of filler posting.

"The bullet in the brain pans out for Courier actually."

The dealer smirked at her pun.

"I didn't realize you still suspected me Blade. Honestly I was expecting you to be targeted. That is why I watched you last night. But no visitors. But can someone else explain again why Blade isn't a wolf? Not sure I ever fully got that and tbh I was kinda riding high on sussing out Jeen.'

"I could have sworn I pushed more back then I remember doing so and feel freaking insane. I think it came mostly from not understanding why Blade was cleared. He claimed to have vote manipulated from what I recall.

Also just lovers and other powers is a stretch for me. I mean at this point, you will see my logs soon. I don't care anymore. Kill me. We played the last few days horribly. We kept saying we would execute Kraken next and we never did. Lentrax had low activity and skated. Kill me and you will see that you are all screwed and in end game I will point that out again. I firmly don't believe lovers. It would be honestly repetitive and to close to the gimmick Snowblaze pulled in the last bastard game. And I don't think Flat is that unoriginal. Also seriously? 'Bonus points because I didn't talk to Lentrax'. Wolves would do the same thing genius. But again, I don't really think I care anymore.

And I still haven't seen anyone backing up what you said except you 'lover'. If you go back through all my posts you can see my growing frustration at a power that just isn't working. Because it isn't getting anything and that makes me less than useless. Everything I have done this game has been sans power which is a hell of a lot more than I can say for most people. So yeah I wanted more credit on the Jeen thing because I felt smart and like I finally got how to solve stuff for once. I don't get to feel like that often. I am just frustrated and ranting and wanting this all off my chest before y'all let the wolves kill me."

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"Also for gods sake. BOLD the red text Lentrax. It is in the intro instructions."

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I still don't think a Femme Fatale paired up with an Investigator works and Nick Valentine is Fallout 4 not New Vegas. Very different much worse game. Do not conflate the two. Honestly at this point I think the wolves kept me alive because I suck at this. I expected to die every night since. Only reason I would have kept someone alive this long is because they suck. So I am going to say I think Kraken is clear since I was openly suspicious of them. If not, Kraken you deserve to win."

[Persolus]

Oh and Athedia, you got randomised last night :)

[Athedia]

Oh and Athedia, you got randomised last night :)

"Oh great. Thanks. Love that. I thought you were targeting yourself buddy. BatCatHat to target Persolus because frankly I don't like liars and Lentrax and Blade have suckered the rest of you."

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"Not like any of us can apparently trust any of our powers because Persolus is just going to screw with us."

[Persolus]

Fair enough, after all, i am a wolf-aligned neutral.

[Lentrax]

Spoiler: Trying to find the post I swear exists

Show

"I could have sworn I pushed more back then I remember doing so and feel freaking insane. I think it came mostly from not understanding why Blade was cleared. He claimed to have vote manipulated from what I recall.

Also just lovers and other powers is a stretch for me. I mean at this point, you will see my logs soon. I don't care anymore. Kill me. We played the last few days horribly. We kept saying we would execute Kraken next and we never did. Lentrax had low activity and skated. Kill me and you will see that you are all screwed and in end game I will point that out again. I firmly don't believe lovers. It would be honestly repetitive and to close to the gimmick Snowblaze pulled in the last bastard game. And I don't think Flat is that unoriginal. Also seriously? 'Bonus points because I didn't talk to Lentrax'. Wolves would do the same thing genius. But again, I don't really think I care anymore.

And I still haven't seen anyone backing up what you said except you 'lover'. If you go back through all my posts you can see my growing frustration at a power that just isn't working. Because it isn't getting anything and that makes me less than useless. Everything I have done this game has been sans power which is a hell of a lot more than I can say for most people. So yeah I wanted more credit on the Jeen thing because I felt smart and like I finally got how to solve stuff for once. I don't get to feel like that often. I am just frustrated and ranting and wanting this all off my chest before y'all let the wolves kill me."

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"Also for gods sake. BOLD the red text Lentrax. It is in the intro instructions."

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I still don't think a Femme Fatale paired up with an Investigator works and Nick Valentine is Fallout 4 not New Vegas. Very different much worse game. Do not conflate the two. Honestly at this point I think the wolves kept me alive because I suck at this. I expected to die every night since. Only reason I would have kept someone alive this long is because they suck. So I am going to say I think Kraken is clear since I was openly suspicious of them. If not, Kraken you deserve to win."

I was just including him because he is an example of an investigator in Fallout, not just New Vegas specific. And thanks for reminding me of the bold.

I’d hate for your demise to not have the proper pomp and ceremony it deserves.

[Illven]

"Oh great. Thanks. Love that. I thought you were targeting yourself buddy. BatCatHat to target Persolus because frankly I don't like liars and Lentrax and Blade have suckered the rest of you."

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"Not like any of us can apparently trust any of our powers because Persolus is just going to screw with us."

Wait. Why did you think Persolus was targeting themselves? They explicitly stated they were targeting Blade.

https://forums.giantitp.com/showsing...&postcount=441

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Wait, Persolus. Are you claiming you don't know your win condition? Like I'm confused.

Cause like if you're Vecna's opposite you shouldn't? If Vecna was telling the truth of course.

Batcathat

[Persolus]

Hello [...]Thankfully all my scumbuddies nudged me enough in the wolf chat to post here - I MEAN I FINALLY GOT AROUND TO IT[...]

For the record, this was a lie, i don't have access to the scum chat.
However... :)

Oh no i know my win condition exactly [unless Flat lies to me].

I'm a neutral who wins with wolves :)

Which means, sure, you can kill me, but I don't count towards the wolves win-con.

Of course, you don't have to believe me on this, but if you flip me, you gain nothing besides the knowledge that I am a neutral.

[Athedia]

Wait. Why did you think Persolus was targeting themselves? They explicitly stated they were targeting Blade.

https://forums.giantitp.com/showsing...&postcount=441

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Wait, Persolus. Are you claiming you don't know your win condition? Like I'm confused.

Cause like if you're Vecna's opposite you shouldn't? If Vecna was telling the truth of course.

Batcathat

For the record, this was a lie, i don't have access to the scum chat.
However... :)

Oh no i know my win condition exactly [unless Flat lies to me].

I'm a neutral who wins with wolves :)

Which means, sure, you can kill me, but I don't count towards the wolves win-con.

Of course, you don't have to believe me on this, but if you flip me, you gain nothing besides the knowledge that I am a neutral.

What about if i agree to only use it on myself?

"I had been going off of this. I didn't realize he had decided to target Blade, though I do see that Kraken did suggest it. But if Persolus wins with the wolves why would he do that? His goal would be to protect the wolves. His interests are purely on surviving, he doesn't care if he messes with us. In fact it is in his benefit to do so!"

[Let'sGetKraken]

"I had been going off of this. I didn't realize he had decided to target Blade, though I do see that Kraken did suggest it. But if Persolus wins with the wolves why would he do that? His goal would be to protect the wolves. His interests are purely on surviving, he doesn't care if he messes with us. In fact it is in his benefit to do so!"

I'm not sure what your point is exactly. At that point we didn't know Persolus was a wolf-aligned neutral. Of course he wouldn't help town; if his goal was just to survive, though, cooperating with town is a good deal for him.

[Athedia]

I'm not sure what your point is exactly. At that point we didn't know Persolus was a wolf-aligned neutral. Of course he wouldn't help town; if his goal was just to survive, though, cooperating with town is a good deal for him.

"He then came out and confessed to being wolf-aligned today. Him claiming that he would protect Blade is one thing. He had no reason to actually do so."

[Persolus]

Kraken was saying, "why do we think Persolus would have done that, back when we thought he was neutral?"

You're saying, "why would Persolus do that, knowing now that he's eeeeeevil neutral?"

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and to be fair, if I had actually been a neutral like i claimed, i would have protected blade.

[Athedia]

Kraken was saying, "why do we think Persolus would have done that, back when we thought he was neutral?"

You're saying, "why would Persolus do that, knowing now that he's eeeeeevil neutral?"

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and to be fair, if I had actually been a neutral like i claimed, i would have protected blade.

"So you targeted me. Or you targeted blade. Because targeting me is just being petty and targeting blade is potentially protecting the person you truely suspect of being a wolf."

[Let'sGetKraken]

"He then came out and confessed to being wolf-aligned today. Him claiming that he would protect Blade is one thing. He had no reason to actually do so."

I mean, I don't mean to be rude, but obviously? I'm just not sure how that is relevant, other than to assume that he is going to mess with my vig shot tonight.

This does narrow the pool significantly. Gah.

Without being able to reliably shoot tonight - though honestly, random chance might be beneficial for us, with this ratio of town to wolves - the only person who can stop me from shooting is BCH. If BCH is a wolf, we need to hit today, otherwise we lose. If BCH is town, we have a chance that we can salvage this.

I don't love Blade and Lentrax here, but Blade took credit for the Yes Man - ending the voting immediately on D3, which got rid of a wolf. If there are three wolves and a wolfsiding neutral, Flat would probably have called the game already (if that a fair assumption?), since they could just declare that they're wolves and win with Persolus. Though shenanigans, I suppose.

But if there are two wolves, the only permutation that can contain Bladescape would be Bladescape/Lentrax, for obvious reasons. Blade would have had to use his 1/game yeet-control to save a town member and kill a wolf. If he did, GG, he can win this with flying colours, because that if a baffling decision to take unless it was W/W wagons and he has played this beautifully. So I am willing to believe Bladescape. That doesn't mean he's right about Athedia, but I think that Blade/Lentrax are consequently clear here.

Therefore, with Persolus being a wolf-siding neutral, these people contain the potential wolves:

• Illven
• BatCatHat
• Athedia
• Me

My vig claim is uncontested and no one else has even suggested how three people died N3.

So, Illven, BatCatHat, Athedia. We have one shot here, since we squandered all those we've had over the past few days.

Illven claims that she has two lives. Bat claims he is a voider, which is a role already occupied by Cazero. And Athedia could have intentionally bussed Jeen, though it would be committed.

If we're assuming two wolves left, we have good odds of getting a wolf there, assuming that we can all get on the same page in the next ten hours.

But we cannot vote Lentrax or Blade today, and I don't think voting Persolus helps save the game (unless he is pretending to be neutral as a wolf).

Hey AV. If you ever had the ability to alter a yeet, today would be the day to do it. Sorry to have killed you, but in fairness, you explicitly asked to die.

[Persolus]

(unless he is pretending to be neutral as a wolf).

Go ahead, flip that coin

[Batcathat]

So, I've just had a like 12 hour day of learning a ton of new things. Don't get me wrong, it's both interesting and entertaining, but it has left what solving skills I usually have at basically zero.

Assuming blade and Lentrax are town does seem like the best bet, though there are things that worry me about that intepretation of events. If they are, Athedia and Illven would presumably both be wolves (unless one of them's a townie and Persolus is a wolf with a very interesting bluff, which seems possible but less likely).

I'll be a up for a few hours more, so hopefully I'll at least figure out who to vote.

[bladescape]

...

Merel's kill does make more sense if Persolus randomised the mafia kill.

Hm. Now the question would then be am I wrong on Ath and wolves tried to kill her last night.

@Kraken

Honest opinion. Does the posts and trends I've pointed out on Ath make sense/feel like what you'd see from a mafia?

You kinda haven't said anything about it except that it'd be the dramatic post I'd make if bussing

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I'm feeling inconfident in this now tbh.

Persolus I expected to be on me/himself. More himself than me. Merel's kill felt like proof that someone I townread was furry and I've been duped.

But if Ath was targetted instead and wolves only hit Merel because Persolus accidentally got in their way...

(Because wolves might have believed he was on me)

Then the Merel kill is now just "happenstance" instead of wolf.

Also re: missing wolf!bch is game over.

Missing any wolf today is game over. If Persolus is talling the truth then we technically are at lylo and now in danger of just losing if we get it wrong.